railer
railer
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January 29th, 2019 at 11:48:45 AM permalink
I found a game with a different LL side bet payout structure and I'm trying to calculate the house edge.

Payout:

Pair of Queen Hearts - 100 to 1
Matched 20 (suits and cards match)- 25 to 1
Suited 20 - 10 to 1
Any other 20 - 3 to 1
Any Queen of Hearts - 2 to 1
Any Queen - 1 to 1

My calculations are as follows:


Hand Probability Payout EV
Pair Qh .000309 100 .0309
Matched 20 .004638 25 .11595
Suited 20 .020777 10 .20777
Any other 20 .080139 3 .24031
Any Qh .026713 2 .053426
Any Q .080139 1 .080139
Loss .787285 -1 -.787285
Total EV -.05879



Can anybody help with this or run a sim? Thanks!

-railer
SM777
SM777
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January 29th, 2019 at 12:14:33 PM permalink
Spoiler alert: Don't play it....
jackmagic777
jackmagic777
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Forager
January 29th, 2019 at 12:25:45 PM permalink
Especially if the shfl shuffler is in beast mode!
FCBLComish
FCBLComish
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January 29th, 2019 at 12:53:39 PM permalink
If it is single deck, then for sure don't play it :)
Beware, I work for the dark side.... We have cookies
ChesterDog
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railer
January 29th, 2019 at 1:59:20 PM permalink
Quote: railer

I found a game with a different LL side bet payout structure and I'm trying to calculate the house edge.

Payout:

Pair of Queen Hearts - 100 to 1
Matched 20 (suits and cards match)- 25 to 1
Suited 20 - 10 to 1
Any other 20 - 3 to 1
Any Queen of Hearts - 2 to 1
Any Queen - 1 to 1

My calculations are as follows:


Hand Probability Payout EV
Pair Qh .000309 100 .0309
Matched 20 .004638 25 .11595
Suited 20 .020777 10 .20777
Any other 20 .080139 3 .24031
Any Qh .026713 2 .053426
Any Q .080139 1 .080139
Loss .787285 -1 -.787285
Total EV -.05879



Can anybody help with this or run a sim? Thanks!

-railer



I see that it's dealt from 6 decks


I get a house edge of 5.868%, which is very close to your 5.879%. This is very low compared to other Lucky Ladies pay tables.


Below are my numbers of ways for 6 decks.



HandPayoutWays
Pair Qh
100
15
Matched 20
25
225
Suited 20
10
1008
Any other 20
3
3888
Any Qh
2
1296
Any Q
1
3888
Loss
-1
38196
Total
48516
railer
railer
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January 29th, 2019 at 2:41:03 PM permalink
ChesterDog, Thanks for your reply. Yes, it is a six-deck game.

Interesting to note that the Wizard's table D - 6 decks on his LL page may be incorrect for "Any other 20". That's what was driving me nuts...but I think you confirmed that I was on the right track.

Our differences are close enough for me, but may be due to rounding errors?



Not sure why people are saying not to play.... it seems like a great game to me.
miplet
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railer
January 29th, 2019 at 4:01:38 PM permalink
Quote: railer

ChesterDog, Thanks for your reply. Yes, it is a six-deck game.

Interesting to note that the Wizard's table D - 6 decks on his LL page may be incorrect for "Any other 20". That's what was driving me nuts...but I think you confirmed that I was on the right track.

Our differences are close enough for me, but may be due to rounding errors?



Not sure why people are saying not to play.... it seems like a great game to me.


I get the same as ChesterDog. Wizard has a math error on his any 20.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
MaxPen
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January 29th, 2019 at 4:08:54 PM permalink
This pay table was likely created to reduce the effectiveness of a ten count on the game.
railer
railer
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January 29th, 2019 at 4:41:29 PM permalink
Thanks for confirming that miplet.
Wizard
Administrator
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January 29th, 2019 at 7:27:46 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

I get the same as ChesterDog. Wizard has a math error on his any 20.



Thank you for bringing this to my attention. I just updated my Lucky Ladies page, hopefully correctly.

Lucky Ladies
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
BJforever
BJforever
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February 22nd, 2019 at 1:00:59 AM permalink
Hello,

If I Change the hi-lo tags in the following way (for a BJ variant):
2:+1; 3:+1; 4: +1; 5:+1; 6: +2; 7: +1; 8: 0; 9: 0; 10: -1; Ace: -1
how are the indices most likely to Change?
My guess would be:
Positive Indices and Insurance: Index of hi-lo times 1.4 (7/5)
Negative Indices: Unchanged

let 's say 5 low cards 2-7 are removed evenly you would get as a RC +7 using the above altered tags instead of +5 on average;
this divided by the number of decks remaining would give the TC resp index for a certain playing Deviation...
e.g. 9 vs 2 is +1 in the hi-low (6D). Would the index then Change to +1.4?

Insurance equally should Change from +3,2 to +4,5...
mrsuit31
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February 22nd, 2019 at 5:46:02 AM permalink
What's the effect on the HA if you simply count down the Queens in the deck, since the most frequent pay events are based on them?
.
BlackjackGuy123
BlackjackGuy123
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February 27th, 2019 at 12:36:27 AM permalink
At what hi lo TC does this side bet become profitable?
MaxPen
MaxPen
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February 27th, 2019 at 1:03:48 AM permalink
Quote: BlackjackGuy123

At what hi lo TC does this side bet become profitable?



Much more effective to use a ten count.
moses
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March 2nd, 2019 at 1:29:39 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Much more effective to use a ten count.



O brother.
Romes
Romes
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March 3rd, 2019 at 8:19:43 PM permalink
Hi/Low TC +6.5 is the trigger for ladies, but that may change pending the number of decks.

If you're a small time player (red chipper) I'd absolutely recommend focusing on the Tens count and spreading to 2 hands when you hit your trigger. You can make a better hourly doing this with a bit more longevity as well at most places (especially if you're a red chipper).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
BlackjackGuy123
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March 5th, 2019 at 8:58:31 AM permalink
"Hi/Low TC +6.5 is the trigger for ladies, but that may change pending the number of decks."

It changes based on both # of decks and pay tables. For the other two paytables, the trigger can be as low as +5 or as high as +8. Presumably the trigger is lower here because the house edge is significantly lower.
WABJ11
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October 17th, 2023 at 6:46:48 PM permalink
I’m on a carnival ship and (I don’t play lucky ladies) but saw the payouts for lucky ladies was especially bad. It’s 3,8,18,125,1000. It’s even offered on their version of Spanish 21 (K’s removed) which I imagine the HE has to be close to 50%. Just curious for mathematical sake how bad the house edge is.
ChesterDog
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October 17th, 2023 at 8:52:18 PM permalink
Quote: WABJ11

I’m on a carnival ship and (I don’t play lucky ladies) but saw the payouts for lucky ladies was especially bad. It’s 3,8,18,125,1000. It’s even offered on their version of Spanish 21 (K’s removed) which I imagine the HE has to be close to 50%. Just curious for mathematical sake how bad the house edge is.
link to original post



For the pay table 3,8,18,125,1000, I get these Lucky Ladies EVs:

-0.503580 for eight Spanish decks
-0.509920 for six Spanish decks

-0.346160 for eight regular decks
-0.352642 for six regular decks:

I think you're right that the HE for that pay table on Spanish 21 is close to 50%.

Compare these with those of other pay tables: Wizard of Odds.
WABJ11
WABJ11
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October 17th, 2023 at 9:52:01 PM permalink
Quote: ChesterDog

Quote: WABJ11

I’m on a carnival ship and (I don’t play lucky ladies) but saw the payouts for lucky ladies was especially bad. It’s 3,8,18,125,1000. It’s even offered on their version of Spanish 21 (K’s removed) which I imagine the HE has to be close to 50%. Just curious for mathematical sake how bad the house edge is.
link to original post



For the pay table 3,8,18,125,1000, I get these Lucky Ladies EVs:

-0.503580 for eight Spanish decks
-0.509920 for six Spanish decks

-0.346160 for eight regular decks
-0.352642 for six regular decks:

I think you're right that the HE for that pay table on Spanish 21 is close to 50%.

Compare these with those of other pay tables: Wizard of Odds.
link to original post



Thank you! I had a bet with one of the staff. I’m right! I’m surprised it’s 34% on regular blackjack. I thought it would be closer to 40.
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