railer
railer
Joined: Mar 2, 2012
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January 29th, 2019 at 11:48:45 AM permalink
I found a game with a different LL side bet payout structure and I'm trying to calculate the house edge.

Payout:

Pair of Queen Hearts - 100 to 1
Matched 20 (suits and cards match)- 25 to 1
Suited 20 - 10 to 1
Any other 20 - 3 to 1
Any Queen of Hearts - 2 to 1
Any Queen - 1 to 1

My calculations are as follows:


Hand Probability Payout EV
Pair Qh .000309 100 .0309
Matched 20 .004638 25 .11595
Suited 20 .020777 10 .20777
Any other 20 .080139 3 .24031
Any Qh .026713 2 .053426
Any Q .080139 1 .080139
Loss .787285 -1 -.787285
Total EV -.05879



Can anybody help with this or run a sim? Thanks!

-railer
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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January 29th, 2019 at 12:14:33 PM permalink
Spoiler alert: Don't play it....
jackmagic777
jackmagic777
Joined: Jan 11, 2019
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Thanks for this post from:
Forager
January 29th, 2019 at 12:25:45 PM permalink
Especially if the shfl shuffler is in beast mode!
FCBLComish
FCBLComish
Joined: Apr 11, 2010
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January 29th, 2019 at 12:53:39 PM permalink
If it is single deck, then for sure don't play it :)
Beware, I work for the dark side.... We have cookies
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
Joined: Jul 26, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
railer
January 29th, 2019 at 1:59:20 PM permalink
Quote: railer

I found a game with a different LL side bet payout structure and I'm trying to calculate the house edge.

Payout:

Pair of Queen Hearts - 100 to 1
Matched 20 (suits and cards match)- 25 to 1
Suited 20 - 10 to 1
Any other 20 - 3 to 1
Any Queen of Hearts - 2 to 1
Any Queen - 1 to 1

My calculations are as follows:


Hand Probability Payout EV
Pair Qh .000309 100 .0309
Matched 20 .004638 25 .11595
Suited 20 .020777 10 .20777
Any other 20 .080139 3 .24031
Any Qh .026713 2 .053426
Any Q .080139 1 .080139
Loss .787285 -1 -.787285
Total EV -.05879



Can anybody help with this or run a sim? Thanks!

-railer



I see that it's dealt from 6 decks


I get a house edge of 5.868%, which is very close to your 5.879%. This is very low compared to other Lucky Ladies pay tables.


Below are my numbers of ways for 6 decks.



HandPayoutWays
Pair Qh
100
15
Matched 20
25
225
Suited 20
10
1008
Any other 20
3
3888
Any Qh
2
1296
Any Q
1
3888
Loss
-1
38196
Total
48516
railer
railer
Joined: Mar 2, 2012
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January 29th, 2019 at 2:41:03 PM permalink
ChesterDog, Thanks for your reply. Yes, it is a six-deck game.

Interesting to note that the Wizard's table D - 6 decks on his LL page may be incorrect for "Any other 20". That's what was driving me nuts...but I think you confirmed that I was on the right track.

Our differences are close enough for me, but may be due to rounding errors?



Not sure why people are saying not to play.... it seems like a great game to me.
miplet
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
railer
January 29th, 2019 at 4:01:38 PM permalink
Quote: railer

ChesterDog, Thanks for your reply. Yes, it is a six-deck game.

Interesting to note that the Wizard's table D - 6 decks on his LL page may be incorrect for "Any other 20". That's what was driving me nuts...but I think you confirmed that I was on the right track.

Our differences are close enough for me, but may be due to rounding errors?



Not sure why people are saying not to play.... it seems like a great game to me.


I get the same as ChesterDog. Wizard has a math error on his any 20.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
MaxPen
MaxPen
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
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January 29th, 2019 at 4:08:54 PM permalink
This pay table was likely created to reduce the effectiveness of a ten count on the game.
railer
railer
Joined: Mar 2, 2012
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January 29th, 2019 at 4:41:29 PM permalink
Thanks for confirming that miplet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
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January 29th, 2019 at 7:27:46 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

I get the same as ChesterDog. Wizard has a math error on his any 20.



Thank you for bringing this to my attention. I just updated my Lucky Ladies page, hopefully correctly.

Lucky Ladies
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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