status challenge

There is a casino that has a Gold Status challenge (two levels up from a nobody) where you get Gold Status if you earn 10,000 points in one day. Otherwise you can get Gold for 25,000 points in a six month period of time.

They award 15 points per dollar wagered at table games. They have $3 blackjack, single deck, dealer hits soft 17, double 10-11 only, no double after split, no surrender.

In order for me to get 10,000 points I would need to do 223 hands (222.222*$3*15=10,000), which should take about 5 hours, no prob in one day. This would be 669 dollars wagered.

Obviously I don't need to bring 669 dollars to the casino. My question for the audience is: while I can calculate the expected loss, only $3.88 (0.58% house edge for those rules), the actual result can vary, and I don't know how to do that.

What's the 5th percentile of my result? 10th percentile? What is the probability of losing $100? Probability of losing $200?

Thanks!

Quote: KevinAA

There is a casino that has a Gold Status challenge (two levels up from a nobody) where you get Gold Status if you earn 10,000 points in one day. Otherwise you can get Gold for 25,000 points in a six month period of time.

They award 15 points per dollar wagered at table games. They have $3 blackjack, single deck, dealer hits soft 17, double 10-11 only, no double after split, no surrender.

In order for me to get 10,000 points I would need to do 223 hands (222.222*$3*15=10,000), which should take about 5 hours, no prob in one day. This would be 669 dollars wagered.

Obviously I don't need to bring 669 dollars to the casino. My question for the audience is: while I can calculate the expected loss, only $3.88 (0.58% house edge for those rules), the actual result can vary, and I don't know how to do that.

What's the 5th percentile of my result? 10th percentile? What is the probability of losing $100? Probability of losing $200?

Thanks!

Interesting. I may look out the formula for estimating that, but first. Is this an online gaff? $3 minimum bet on a single deck game sounds remarkable. Also, what do you get with that Gold Status? Does it have real value in free play, points, comps?

Quote: OnceDear

Interesting. I may look out the formula for estimating that, but first. Is this an online gaff? $3 minimum bet on a single deck game sounds remarkable. Also, what do you get with that Gold Status? Does it have real value in free play, points, comps?

Reno has far better gambling than Las Vegas in general, with the best ones being locals casinos, not those huge casino resorts. This one really is $3 single deck. Gold status gets 2x points and a free buffet once a month.

Quote: KevinAA

Gold status gets 2x points and a free buffet once a month.

That's not much.

Quote: FleaStiff

That's not much.

Yeah, I know, but the VP is 99% and the points are worth 0.1% if earned at VP. Gold would make that 0.2%. So if I play JoB, the house edge w/free play is significantly less.

It's worth it to pay an expected value of $3.88 at blackjack but there's variance and I was curious what the probability of losing $100 or $200 is. If it's too high then I won't bother.

Problem is unless it is electronic hands is not an exact science. They do an average so you may actually play more hands.

Quote: KevinAA

What is the probability of losing $100? Probability of losing $200?

Thanks!

use ev and sd
Z table for the normal distribution should give a very good estimate for 223 rounds played
I would not try to calculate this as a simulation would be way easier.

Mean: -3.88
SD: 49.28 (sqrt(223)*$3*1.1)

Below -100: 0.0256
Below -150: 0.0015
Below -200: shows 0

online can help
http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/z_table.html

enjoy the buffet!

Quote: 7craps

use ev and sd
Z table for the normal distribution should give a very good estimate for 223 rounds played
I would not try to calculate this as a simulation would be way easier.

Mean: -3.88
SD: 49.28 (sqrt(223)*$3*1.1)

Below -100: 0.0256
Below -150: 0.0015
Below -200: shows 0

online can help
http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/z_table.html

enjoy the buffet!

That's great, thanks!

I think what I will do is bet $5 when the count is + to reduce the probability of losing and no chance of being backed off at such a ridiculously low spread.

Could you bet $6 a hand instead of $3 a hand

You did not mention, but BJ pays 3:2, correct?

If so, that game as you have it should not even make enough money to pay the dealer's wages.

Quote: WalterW

Could you bet $6 a hand instead of $3 a hand

I could, but why?

Quote: FCBLComish

You did not mention, but BJ pays 3:2, correct?

If so, that game as you have it should not even make enough money to pay the dealer's wages.

yes, 3:2, forgot to add that

I don't consider 6:5 to be real blackjack. It's "fake blackjack", a game I refuse to play.

I read somewhere that a BJ game with good rules would need $50 bets just to break even, if the players use basic strategy and no one makes side bets. But these low limit BJ games with good rules do make money because most players make side bets and lots of people make strategy mistakes. I've seen people bet $10 on the hand and $25 on Royal Match. The casino thanks you!

It's hard to tell exactly what the real house edge is with the typical BJ player, but the hold (% of chips bought that the house keeps as profit) is about 12%.

I forgot to mention, there are actually two promos -- Gold Status challenge (10,000 points in one day) and Platinum Status Challenge (25,000 points in one day). The day after tomorrow I am going to go for the Platinum Status Challenge. This will give me 3x points and a free buffet every week. My plan is to bet $10 a hand most of the time, dropping to $5 on a negative count, and $15 or $20 on a positive count. No chance of being backed off, and I stand good chance of breaking even to get 25,000 points (points are 15x bet on a table game, so about 4 hours).

I went to this casino today for the express purpose of earning 10,000 points for Gold Status (and maybe 25,000 points for Platinum Status). Before playing, I asked the pit boss how long it would take to earn 10,000 points betting $5 a hand. His response was "a very very long time". As it turn out, their brochure which states "15X points per dollar wagered theo" doesn't mean you get 15X point per dollar wagered, you only get 15X points per dollar wagered TIMES TWO PERCENT. Well that makes a huge difference!

He said the house edge on blackjack is only 2% (I chose not to say anything knowing that it's only 0.6% flat betting), which is why the multiplier is so much higher. It's also 15X on keno, but who cares, that is a total rip-off. It's 3X on slot machines, 2X on video poker, and 1X on video table games (they have a video BJ game with good rules but also a 0.6% house edge, 6 decks, double down on anything, double after split, and surrender).

I played BJ for an hour and won $2.50.

So the best deal is actually video poker. The only problem is the variance. The variance of BJ is much lower than VP, but I think I will try VP based on EV only.

Wish me luck! :-)