tyler498
tyler498
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Joined: Jun 24, 2017
November 17th, 2017 at 8:02:17 PM permalink
Hi guys, I'm looking for an EV calculator based on bet spread. I don't have the tools to run simulations myself but I'm thinking this shouldn't require more than one simulation since the way the hands are played remains the same, only bets differ. Assuming 6 deck using Hi-lo with I18+F4 (but something close also could work)
https://www.blackjackincolor.com/z77Chart.gif
https://www.blackjackincolor.com/penetration5.htm
Something like this but with EV instead of score.
edit: Of course this will depend on many other things, but one case would suffice. If I could choose I'd say 6 deck S17 DAS DA LS with 75% pen no wonging.
Romes
Romes
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Joined: Jul 22, 2014
November 27th, 2017 at 9:44:45 AM permalink
A SIM is the best result to get an accurate SCORE or EV per hour/100 hands. Past that... I've posted my spreadsheets numerous times, and in the original A-Z counting thread. From there you can modify the spreadsheets however you want (adjusting for the house edge / rule changes... as well as penetration frequency changes). Then simply plug whatever spread you want in and it'll kick out an hourly EV (per 100 hands).

Here's the link to my post that contained the links to the google docs you should be able to download and edit yourself:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/19491-a-to-z-counting-cards-in-blackjack/5/#post483782
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
tyler498
tyler498
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Joined: Jun 24, 2017
November 27th, 2017 at 7:02:37 PM permalink
Thanks! Very helpful as always.
I have also found this interactive chart: https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/resourcespage.php?do=bjtfcharts
Which gives the IBA for various spreads and penetrations. I am just not sure here if IBA is based on the minimum bet or average bet?
I first thought minimum, the rest of the bets can be derived from min and spread, but the numbers are low, about 1% IBA, if 10$min then 10$/h EV at 100 hands/h. So I guess it is the average probably?
Romes
Romes
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November 28th, 2017 at 12:22:46 PM permalink
That looks pretty cool/interesting... I didn't have the time to investigate it enough, but I would want to check parameters... At first glance it looks like it uses a "play all" approach. Next, so if you're using a 1-16 spread, at what TC's do you bet what? If it just simply goes by average bet, I would think that would be horrifically misleading to have your Avg Bet essentially "flat bet" across all TC's (positive and negative) considering one would never raise their bet in a lower count, let alone one might not even be playing negative counts (or perhaps just past like TC -1), etc. I doubt Norm would do something like that though, as his math is generally pretty spot on.

I've found from SIMS that my spreadsheets are generally pretty on par, and if anything, a little LOWER in EV than the SIM would return (because they don't take index plays in to account). Taking the same top level parameters from that link (Hi/Low, 6 decks, H17 DAS, 1-16 spread, 75% PEN)... I'm showing my spreadsheet comes up with:

$10-$160, max out by TC +5, biggest jump at TC +3

AvgBet: $21.59
EV (per 100 hands): ~$17/hour

If the chart goes by "units" and base if off your "average bet" as your unit, then I would show a profit of .79 units per hour. The chart shoes EV: .80. So apparently in the background it does do some sort of "spreading" that at first glance I'm not sure what it is. But the overall numbers do appear to go off of "average bet" for units. I would say from this one simple test this chart looks to be a great resource for you to quickly check what Penetration, spread, and rules does for your EV, SCORE, and N0.
Last edited by: Romes on Nov 28, 2017
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
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