Poll

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5 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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November 17th, 2017 at 2:40:16 PM permalink
Just finished with another fun-filled Cutting Table Table Games conference. This show is a lot more fun and friendly than G2E. Starving game inventors have pretty much been priced out of G2E while Cutting Edge is much more affordable. This is the place to see mostly the little guys show their stuff. For anyone with any interest in the business of inventing new table games, I recommend this show over G2E.

Dead Man's Hand was there. I have heard of this blackjack side bet being seen in Deadwood SD but never knew the pay table or for sure if it was still there. However, the owner was there showing it. This was a simple analysis so banged it out just now. Here is the return table, based on six decks.

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Two A-8 in first two hands after splitting 100 127,424,967,280,200 0.000070 0.007000
One A-8 in first two hands after splitting 20 3,058,837,136,964,000 0.001680 0.033606
8-8 or A-A in first two cards 4 18,351,874,609,645,500 0.010081 0.040325
A-8 in first two cards 4 21,543,527,987,159,800 0.011835 0.047338
Ace or eight in first two cards 2 473,957,615,717,515,000 0.260360 0.520720
All other -1 1,303,353,791,220,180,000 0.715974 -0.715974
Total 1,820,393,071,638,740,000 1.000000 -0.066984


The owner mentioned something about another pay table but I don't remember the details. If they actually use something in Deadwood different from this, please let me know.

If anyone would be so kind as to confirm to contradict my math, I would be quite grateful.

The question for the poll is would you make this side bet?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TigerWu
TigerWu
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November 17th, 2017 at 2:51:32 PM permalink
Am I reading that chart incorrectly or are those terrible odds?
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 17th, 2017 at 3:17:01 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Am I reading that chart incorrectly or are those terrible odds?



6.7% house edge for a side bet is not that bad. Depends on your definition of "terrible." There are better bets and there are worse.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TigerWu
TigerWu
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November 17th, 2017 at 3:31:59 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

6.7% house edge for a side bet is not that bad. Depends on your definition of "terrible." There are better bets and there are worse.



Gotcha. Thanks! I do personally think those are terrible odds.
tyler498
tyler498
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November 17th, 2017 at 5:10:30 PM permalink
6.7% for a side bet is pretty ok, and this seems extremely countable with a specific side count! would like to try it
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 17th, 2017 at 5:30:48 PM permalink
Quote: tyler498

6.7% for a side bet is pretty ok, and this seems extremely countable with a specific side count! would like to try it



I think this bet has been there for years. Either counters never go there or its on a continuous shuffler.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 17th, 2017 at 5:43:38 PM permalink
Here is my Wizard of Odds analysis of the side bet. As always, I welcome all questions, comments, and especially corrections.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
miplet
miplet 
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November 17th, 2017 at 6:27:00 PM permalink
Your intro says straights and 8’s. What happens if the dealer gets a bj? Does the player still get 2 cards on their pairs of aces or eights?
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 17th, 2017 at 6:45:32 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

Your intro says straights and 8’s. What happens if the dealer gets a bj? Does the player still get 2 cards on their pairs of aces or eights?



Thanks for the correction.

I interpreted it that the player could not split against a dealer blackjack.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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