So, yesterday after a poker house game I was playing at broke, I offered if anybody wanted to play blackjack with me heads up, and they can be the house.
I got a bite.
Penetration - "NO CUT CARD" Lol... 90%+
I was playing 1 hand on all 0 and negative counts, then played 3 hands anytime the count was +1 or higher.
My bet spread was $50-$300.
$50 on neutral and negative counts , (1 hand)
+1- $100 (3 hands)
+2 - $200 (3hands)
+3 or higher - $300 (3 hands)
We played for 12 hours straight.
My hourly EV+ I calculate at around $2,000. I estimated this based on casino verite playing 2 hands and multiplied by 1.5 to compensate for playing 3 hands. I notice when you input into the sim a single deck, it dosent give you the option to say you can play 1 hand at neatral and negative counts and 2 hands on positive counts. Also, you cant input playing 3 hands into the sim.
Anyway, I managed to actually lose $6,000 after 12 hours. The problem was, I only had $6,000 as a trip bankroll, so my risk of ruin was probably close to 50% playing at that level.
I want to try to convince him to play me again, (a chance to win my money back). But, this time I will bring a bigger bankroll. Maybe closer to 20k.
My expected value on this situation is Huge. But, I don't want to go broke again playing.
Any opinions, on what I should do to give myself the best chance of not losing my trip bankroll again?
Lower my max bet (sacrifice +EV),? bring more of a bankroll? Change the amount of hands I should play?
You should have a substantial advantage at TC +1. Almost certainly in the +.8% range, although I'd need to sim it to be sure. single deck is worth +.48%.
But if villain is cheating you don't have any advantage at all.
I estimate you lost about 1.7% of what you wagered. 12 hours of play for a single player is nothing. Just regular variance ?
well he could deal seconds