theoriemeister
theoriemeister
Joined: Jul 4, 2015
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June 29th, 2017 at 10:10:36 AM permalink
Hi everyone,

If I understand correctly, the percentage of winning hands in BJ is roughly 44%, with losing hands at 48% and pushes at 8%, assuming that one plays with correct basic strategy. (Please correct me if my percentages are wrong: I saw elsewhere on the net 42/49/9 percentages and I couldn't determine which is correct.)

So, my local game is 6D, H17, NS, DAS. And let's also assume that I'll stop play at TC >-2.

My question: how does incorporating the I18 into my play effect the overall winning percentage? Obviously, as the basic strategy changes to accommodate positive or negative counts, it seems logical that I should win/push at least a few more hands than by following straight BS.

I understand that the dealer's win/bust/push rate will also change as the count fluctuates (yes?), but her card play will never change, whereas mine will--as dictated by the I18. So, how much, if at all, does my winning/push percentage change?


p.s. I am coming to Vegas next week (July 5) for a convention and I hope that it will not be as hot as it has been in AZ these last couple of weeks!
ars longa vita brevis
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
Romes
June 29th, 2017 at 10:31:23 AM permalink
Counting has a tiny effect on win/lose/push rate. The specific TC has a bit more of an effect, but still not much. At very high counts you will see more pushes as you and the dealer are more likely to both get 20. Here's a chart by count:

https://blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

The gain from counting comes from betting, Insurance, doubles, splits, and blackjacks; not hands won.

Quote: theoriemeister


p.s. I am coming to Vegas next week (July 5) for a convention and I hope that it will not be as hot as it has been in AZ these last couple of weeks!



Funny. Not many people go to Vegas in July to cool down.:)
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
theoriemeister
theoriemeister
Joined: Jul 4, 2015
  • Threads: 25
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June 29th, 2017 at 11:34:44 AM permalink
Thanks, qfit! That's what I was looking for.

p.s. I'll be doing my cooling down by staying inside (Planet H.) most of the time. (The convention is the Barbershop Harmony Society International Convention & Competition.) Still, I can't come to Vegas and not try my hand at some BJ, although I already know I'll need to search around for a 3:2, $5-10 minimum tables.
ars longa vita brevis
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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June 29th, 2017 at 11:43:05 AM permalink
As Norm said, the main effect of counting is to have more money out in good situations, not that counters can win many more hands.
If you have a car, head downtown or out to the Boulder Strip.
tyler498
tyler498 
Joined: Jun 24, 2017
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June 29th, 2017 at 1:36:09 PM permalink
Quote: theoriemeister

Thanks, qfit! That's what I was looking for.

p.s. I'll be doing my cooling down by staying inside (Planet H.) most of the time. (The convention is the Barbershop Harmony Society International Convention & Competition.) Still, I can't come to Vegas and not try my hand at some BJ, although I already know I'll need to search around for a 3:2, $5-10 minimum tables.


Not related to your OP but for 3:2 $5 tables your best bet would be El Cortez. My favorite in Vegas hands down.
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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June 29th, 2017 at 1:49:18 PM permalink
EC was my place for over 15 years but the vibe there has changed.

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