LouisTrez
LouisTrez
Joined: Mar 29, 2017
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May 25th, 2017 at 9:06:41 AM permalink
I'm curious about your setup for basic strategy with cut card. I assume this is based on a simulator after a gazillion hands (millions is not enough). Where do you have the cut card for a double deck game and how many players at the table? Our simulator is in the ballpark but a little different than yours. Thanks in advance.
LouisTrez
LouisTrez
Joined: Mar 29, 2017
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May 27th, 2017 at 9:08:59 AM permalink
still crickets?

We've only run 7 billion hands so far, but we're finding something interesting I didn't expect.
Double deck, Basic Strategy, DAS allowed, Dlr hits S17, no surrender, 1 card on split aces, cut card 45 from end:
4 players at table: EV=-.428%
1 player at table: EV=-.443%

Based on the t-test, 95% confidence the difference is real. The difference is only 1 bet every 7,000 hands but I'm having trouble believing playing with others at the table makes any difference. Has anyone else run a similar analysis?

p.s. Do not trust Microsoft random number generator! It is not good enough for things like this.
Mission146
Administrator
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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May 27th, 2017 at 10:46:35 AM permalink
Could the increased EoR (and plays based on Optimal Strategy given known cards) on the last hands of each pair of decks account for the difference? Is your program designed to make decisions based on EoR?
Vultures can't be choosers.
LouisTrez
LouisTrez
Joined: Mar 29, 2017
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May 27th, 2017 at 11:28:34 AM permalink
The version we are running right now stays with double deck BS to the end. I'm not sure I'm interpreting your "Effect of Removal" comment correctly, but it would be interesting to look at the difference if we start playing single deck BS at the end.

We also see a slight sensitivity to deck penetration. One thought I have is that when the cut card comes out, there is deeper penetration on that last hand with more players in the game and that makes an iota of a difference. Sorry if that is restating your comment in different words.

We were hoping to match the WoO house edge calculator before we turn on more advanced features.
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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May 27th, 2017 at 11:42:35 AM permalink
I ran a quick 20 billion rounds for each using your specs:

1 player: -0.4567
4 players: -0.4436

As a comparison:

Mike’s online calculator: -.45688
BJTF online calculator: -.456
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
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May 27th, 2017 at 11:47:26 AM permalink
Quote: LouisTrez

p.s. Do not trust Microsoft random number generator! It is not good enough for things like this.

Lots of lousy PRNGs. They've caused problems for some scientific studies.
LouisTrez
LouisTrez
Joined: Mar 29, 2017
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May 27th, 2017 at 3:46:03 PM permalink
Thanks QFIT!! A quick 20 billion. Love it. Is that a proprietary program you're using?
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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May 27th, 2017 at 3:50:59 PM permalink
Quote: LouisTrez

Thanks QFIT!! A quick 20 billion. Love it. Is that a proprietary program you're using?



I try to avoid mentioning my software. CVData. A billion rounds for normal counting takes 30 seconds on my PC.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
LouisTrez
LouisTrez
Joined: Mar 29, 2017
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May 27th, 2017 at 6:15:18 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

A billion rounds for normal counting takes 30 seconds on my PC.


Very impressive QFIT. Do you care to share how you are generating your random numbers?
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
LouisTrez
May 27th, 2017 at 6:19:18 PM permalink
Quote: LouisTrez

Very impressive QFIT. Do you care to share how you are generating your random numbers?



A customized version of MarZam II. The MarZam II PRNG has a period so long, that if you started a PC generating numbers as fast as it could at the beginning of the Universe, it will not yet have repeated, and it passes the Diehard tests.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

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