Winning $100 Before Losing $5000

The object is to clear $100. You have a bankroll of $5000. What are the odds using basic strategy to accomplish this goal? 6-deck shoe. I've practiced using Oscar's Grind & Martingale. Using PS2 blackjack games, online simulators & apps for my macbook pro. I've played about 100 "rounds" to this point and haven't lost any @ the $100 mark. Lost trying for higher totals, but not when stopping @ $100. Using $10 units for the Oscar. For the Martingale it's 5-10-20-40-80-160-320-500. Seems to be an unreal outcome to me. Any input would be appreciated.

Thanks

Kingb84

With $5k, you're very likely to win $100.

Keep practicing (without real $$$), and sooner or later you'll see it's a losing system. Better to figure that out for free instead of for $5k.

I agree. All systems are "meant" to fall short. I wouldn't use Martingale for real. Oscar, however I have used and done fine with limited rounds. With Martingale, if you lose 8 straight to begin with you are in a pretty good hole. I keep hearing about 96% win rates, but those 4%ers can be doozies. I'm just looking for #'s to see if any of the apps/simulators I'm playing against are close to real-life play. 100% wins @ this point seems quite lucky. That's why I was asking about what the % should look like with the goal of $100 and no more.

Thanks

Kingb84

I believe the likelihood of turning $5,000 into $5,100 is 5000/51000, in a fair game. Of course, blackjack isn't a fair game (unless the HE = 0.00%). So with a disadvantage, your probability of success should be less than 5000/51000.


An easier way to see if the sim are legit or not, just flat bet a small amount ($5) on it. Record the hands played. But this would also take very many hands (many 10's of thousands).

I played a slight variation of Oscars Grind for years playing $3 blackjack the El Cortez.My goal was to win $25 or lose $150. My Winning sessions outnumbered my losing ones by well over a 10- 1 ratio, but most sessions were neutral, neither goal achieved.
My real goal was to have a base hotel that I could get free rooms and most meals free or discounted. As the EC is notorious for sweating bj, I figured my ninja like counting skills should not be wasted there.

Agreed on the latter. I've done that, but of course no where near 20K hands. I'm not sure what 5000/51000 tells me. That would seem to say .098 is the probability of success. Did you mean 5000/5100?

Either way, I am thankful for your replies.

Kingb84

I've only played a few times so far. -70. Even. +55. +100. The last 3 were only for about an hour each. The first was 5 hours of just betting $5 on each hand. I'll try to sharpen my ninja skills as I go.

Quote: KingB84

The object is to clear $100. You have a bankroll of $5000. What are the odds using basic strategy to accomplish this goal? 6-deck shoe. I've practiced using Oscar's Grind & Martingale. Using PS2 blackjack games, online simulators & apps for my macbook pro. I've played about 100 "rounds" to this point and haven't lost any @ the $100 mark. Lost trying for higher totals, but not when stopping @ $100. Using $10 units for the Oscar. For the Martingale it's 5-10-20-40-80-160-320-500. Seems to be an unreal outcome to me. Any input would be appreciated.

Thanks

Kingb84

"Seems to be an unreal outcome to me."


Deleted.

Yes, I mean 5000/51000 (reduced to 50/51), or 98.039% chance of success. This is assuming I got the formula correct. (And I think it is correct, but if I'm wrong, I'm fore-warning you now.)

I believe with a full Oscars Grind you will succeed about 99% of the time. The problem is that one loss will devastate you and can occur at any time. It can be on the hundredth time you play,or on your first. The original Oscar claimed he played craps every weekend for years in the 1960s without suffering a bankroll failure.

I believe with a full Oscars Grind you will succeed about 99% of the time. The problem is that one loss will devastate you and can occur at any time. It can be on the hundredth time you play,or on your first. The original Oscar claimed he played craps every weekend for years in the 1960s without suffering a bankroll failure.

Here's my answer and explanation:-

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/#post1370

To turn 5000 into 5100 before losing 5000, using pretty much any betting system, your probability of success is less than or equal to 5000/5100 = 98%

With the caveat that you make it impossible to win more than 5100 in that session.

Martingale, because it's very quick to resolve and generally needs to expose little total 'action' to the house edge, actually approaches 98% pretty closely.


RS seems to have a spare zero on his keyboard $:o)

Using Martingale, a ten consecutive loss streak will look like this.
1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512
Using Oscar, it will look like this
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Ten straight losses in Blackjack is rare, but do.occur. When they occur, you'll most likely bump into table limits. Most $5 tables top out around $500, so you max out at seven straight losses. A seven loss in a row streak is not infrequent.

Much greater chance of total failure using a Martigale, but a single win along the way will get you back even.
It's a very tempting system but one that must be avoided.

Using Martingale @ the table I've played at would look like this.

5-10-20-40-80-160-320-"500"

$1135 down after that little run...excluding double/split losses.

That's about 1/170 for 8 straight losses. I'm playing/practicing against an app from the mac store. I've seen it go on a 16 hand win streak. Go 35+ hands without busting. Score 20-21 eleven consecutive times. Cards are supposed to be random and shuffled after going "thru" 6 decks.

I agree, it's way too dangerous for me to have any fun using Martingale.

I've tried the FREE BET table as well. More fun to me, but not sure about the odds of winning. 22 does seem to pop up at the most interesting times. (10-K) Also allows 10-6 to survive.

If anyone ever takes a look at the "Blackjack Player" app, let me know if you think it is accurate.

Thanks

Kingb84