KingB84
KingB84
Joined: Sep 9, 2016
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November 17th, 2016 at 5:55:23 PM permalink
The object is to clear $100. You have a bankroll of $5000. What are the odds using basic strategy to accomplish this goal? 6-deck shoe. I've practiced using Oscar's Grind & Martingale. Using PS2 blackjack games, online simulators & apps for my macbook pro. I've played about 100 "rounds" to this point and haven't lost any @ the $100 mark. Lost trying for higher totals, but not when stopping @ $100. Using $10 units for the Oscar. For the Martingale it's 5-10-20-40-80-160-320-500. Seems to be an unreal outcome to me. Any input would be appreciated.

Thanks

Kingb84
RS
RS
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November 17th, 2016 at 6:02:11 PM permalink
With $5k, you're very likely to win $100.

Keep practicing (without real $$$), and sooner or later you'll see it's a losing system. Better to figure that out for free instead of for $5k.
KingB84
KingB84
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November 17th, 2016 at 6:20:40 PM permalink
I agree. All systems are "meant" to fall short. I wouldn't use Martingale for real. Oscar, however I have used and done fine with limited rounds. With Martingale, if you lose 8 straight to begin with you are in a pretty good hole. I keep hearing about 96% win rates, but those 4%ers can be doozies. I'm just looking for #'s to see if any of the apps/simulators I'm playing against are close to real-life play. 100% wins @ this point seems quite lucky. That's why I was asking about what the % should look like with the goal of $100 and no more.

Thanks

Kingb84
RS
RS
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November 17th, 2016 at 6:31:07 PM permalink
I believe the likelihood of turning $5,000 into $5,100 is 5000/51000, in a fair game. Of course, blackjack isn't a fair game (unless the HE = 0.00%). So with a disadvantage, your probability of success should be less than 5000/51000.


An easier way to see if the sim are legit or not, just flat bet a small amount ($5) on it. Record the hands played. But this would also take very many hands (many 10's of thousands).
billryan
billryan
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November 17th, 2016 at 6:49:13 PM permalink
I played a slight variation of Oscars Grind for years playing $3 blackjack the El Cortez.My goal was to win $25 or lose $150. My Winning sessions outnumbered my losing ones by well over a 10- 1 ratio, but most sessions were neutral, neither goal achieved.
My real goal was to have a base hotel that I could get free rooms and most meals free or discounted. As the EC is notorious for sweating bj, I figured my ninja like counting skills should not be wasted there.
KingB84
KingB84
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November 17th, 2016 at 6:51:23 PM permalink
Agreed on the latter. I've done that, but of course no where near 20K hands. I'm not sure what 5000/51000 tells me. That would seem to say .098 is the probability of success. Did you mean 5000/5100?

Either way, I am thankful for your replies.

Kingb84
KingB84
KingB84
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November 17th, 2016 at 6:55:50 PM permalink
I've only played a few times so far. -70. Even. +55. +100. The last 3 were only for about an hour each. The first was 5 hours of just betting $5 on each hand. I'll try to sharpen my ninja skills as I go.
CasinoKiller
CasinoKiller
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November 17th, 2016 at 11:06:52 PM permalink
Quote: KingB84

The object is to clear $100. You have a bankroll of $5000. What are the odds using basic strategy to accomplish this goal? 6-deck shoe. I've practiced using Oscar's Grind & Martingale. Using PS2 blackjack games, online simulators & apps for my macbook pro. I've played about 100 "rounds" to this point and haven't lost any @ the $100 mark. Lost trying for higher totals, but not when stopping @ $100. Using $10 units for the Oscar. For the Martingale it's 5-10-20-40-80-160-320-500. Seems to be an unreal outcome to me. Any input would be appreciated.

Thanks

Kingb84



"Seems to be an unreal outcome to me."


Deleted.
What goes around always comes back around
RS
RS
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Thanks for this post from:
KingB84
November 17th, 2016 at 11:44:51 PM permalink
Yes, I mean 5000/51000 (reduced to 50/51), or 98.039% chance of success. This is assuming I got the formula correct. (And I think it is correct, but if I'm wrong, I'm fore-warning you now.)
billryan
billryan
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Thanks for this post from:
KingB84
November 17th, 2016 at 11:58:57 PM permalink
I believe with a full Oscars Grind you will succeed about 99% of the time. The problem is that one loss will devastate you and can occur at any time. It can be on the hundredth time you play,or on your first. The original Oscar claimed he played craps every weekend for years in the 1960s without suffering a bankroll failure.

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