commandertrent
commandertrent
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 7
Joined: Sep 9, 2010
September 9th, 2010 at 8:19:20 PM permalink
I am referring to the rules the Wizard laid out in his site.

If late surrender were offered, would there ever be a situation where it was worthwhile? Surrendering in generally seems to be a very marginal decision in regular blackjack, but when ties can give you a 1/2 unit win, I imagine that surrendering becomes even less valuable.

Thanks,
weaselman
weaselman
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 2349
Joined: Jul 11, 2010
September 10th, 2010 at 4:55:40 AM permalink
With an infinite deck, I am getting that the only situation to surrender in this case is with 16 against a ten (and against an ace if H17).

The house edge I am getting (with surrender) is about 0.59% for H17 and 0.33 for S17. This is higher than Wizard's numbers on that page, but I am not sure how those were obtained (it is stated that the total difference with standard rules should be +0.07%, and then a result of 0.242% is given for S17 with 8 decks, that is 0.11 *less* than the 0.35% number given by the standard house edge calculator), so don't know where to look for the discrepancy.

BTW, I am not sure where the other numbers that led to +0.07% came from too for example for even money bj, the player loses half his bet in 8/169*161/169 cases, and 4*161/169^2 is 2.25% vs. 1.47% stated on the page (It also says 2.27% on the main blackjack page at https://wizardofodds.com/blackjack, which is 8 deck, not infinite, that explains the 0.02% difference, but not 1.25%).

I am not saying that Wizard is wrong - he probably isn't - just that I don't completely understand his analysis.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
commandertrent
commandertrent
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 7
Joined: Sep 9, 2010
September 10th, 2010 at 5:41:34 AM permalink
Weasel, thanks for the answer.

On the ties win blackjack page the Wizard says that by taking away 3:2 black jack wins costs the player 2.25% which is exactly what you calculated (the 1.47% is the loss due to no doubling).
weaselman
weaselman
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 2349
Joined: Jul 11, 2010
September 10th, 2010 at 6:39:29 AM permalink
Yeah, you are right, I was looking at the wrong line (no surprises here :)).
I am still not sure how +0.07 turned into -0.11 though ...
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
  • Jump to: