Advice to new counters/AP's

Most of this is geared towards beginning card counters, but some of these concepts apply to advantage play in general.

I've been a card counter for about 5 years and full time AP for about 2.5. A lot of this advice you may have seen or heard similar things from accomplished players like Colin Jones or Bigplayer. That is not a coincidence, I've learned a lot from more accomplished players that I've tried to apply.

- Your work ethic and discipline will be the key factors in your success 
                                                                                  
               Skill level of course but that is a part of your work ethic. Capital and intelligence are helpful in anything, but at the end of the day the guy putting in the hours to find and smash games gets the money

- Master game selection and risk of ruin

              Don't play marginal games! What's a marginal game depends on your bankroll size and risk tolerance, but whether you play at the red chip level or black chip level your time is too valuable for that. Set a risk of ruin you are comfortable with and stick to it until heat considerations are the primary factor in bet sizing. To bet over full Kelly, even if your counting skills are strong, is to be a gambler hoping to get lucky. This thought process does not belong anywhere in advantage play.

- Advice for bankroll under 20-30k
              Play the best technical games you can find without significant travel expense at the exclusion of everything else. If they won't take your action at this level they're not worth a lot of $ in the long run, but may have some value now. Save every $ you can. It's tempting to buy new clothes and fancy $100 dinners when you have a big win, but each dollar needlessly spent at this level costs a multiple of that in compounded earn.

- Over 100k
            Be willing to travel and search for tolerance. Stay frugal but even the most tolerant place isn't going to let you play 15 hrs/wk there for the length of your playing career. Tolerance and networking become more important than technical game conditions at this point.

-Work on your weaknesses, know them and your strengths
            I think for many AP's our ego will be a weakness. It's easy to get into pissing matches. I think this happens because in most lines of work you are recognized for your talents and accomplishments, in advantage play recognition of your skill is often dangerous and harmful.

- Be Patient!
           Card counting can be a grind with lots of ups and downs. If your skills are strong and you work hard, you will reach whatever realistic goals you set.

- Be aggressive!
         Whether the church team, or Smallcap, every very successful card counter I've heard of in recent memory has had one thing in common: A strength in their game was aggression in bets. Even the best game is only good if it is played well. Costly cover, weak betting spreads, and over tipping will guarantee a card counter mediocrity in the long run. These habits also cost more than the sims will show for a small bankroll, the cost of not being able to apply the additional gains from a stronger game to increase EV faster or decrease risk is very harmful!
        You can ease into it if you want but don't be afraid to push tolerance levels. You will get backed off a lot if you're betting decent money but when you find that place that lets you play 8 hours a day for days or weeks, it's worth it. You'll never find that place if you're never willing to push the boundaries.

-Learn to network effectively
    I recently went on a trip where I had never been, had excellent information from a friend with vast playing experience in the area. The first or second game I would have hit I was advised to play on way out as there would be ramifications elsewhere. A place I may or may not have played without additional info I knew I'd be able to get as many hours as I pleased more or less. I ended up not playing a lot due to illness, but friends can be very helpful! Trust but verify, we're all out to make $ but we all have our own approach. Some people mean you no harm but won't share info on good games. Those guys can be great. When they say somethings bad, it's the first place I check. It can be a tell.

   Develop your own strategy on sharing information that works for you. I'll always try to help anyone who will help me. I think being super worried about getting information of equal value in return can be hurtful. Be careful, but even if I think I helped more than they've helped me, I'm still better off than before and it probably didn't cost me anything, and they often will be appreciative and willing to help when you need it down the line. I tend to be a bit wary of those who always insist that they get equal value in return, I'll be friendly but am usually a bit more guarded. It may work for them, but I think those with this philosophy are always going to try to take advantage of you eventually. Let's take advantage of the casinos.

Hope this can be a help to some.

Quote: mcallister3200

Most of this is geared towards beginning card counters, but some of these concepts apply to advantage play in general.

I've been a card counter for about 5 years and full time AP for about 2.5. A lot of this advice you may have seen or heard similar things from accomplished players like Colin Jones or Bigplayer. That is not a coincidence, I've learned a lot from more accomplished players that I've tried to apply.

- Your work ethic and discipline will be the key factors in your success 
                                                                                  
               Skill level of course but that is a part of your work ethic. Capital and intelligence are helpful in anything, but at the end of the day the guy putting in the hours to find and smash games gets the money

- Master game selection and risk of ruin

              Don't play marginal games! What's a marginal game depends on your bankroll size and risk tolerance, but whether you play at the red chip level or black chip level your time is too valuable for that. Set a risk of ruin you are comfortable with and stick to it until heat considerations are the primary factor in bet sizing. To bet over full Kelly, even if your counting skills are strong, is to be a gambler hoping to get lucky. This thought process does not belong anywhere in advantage play.

- Advice for bankroll under 20-30k
              Play the best technical games you can find without significant travel expense at the exclusion of everything else. If they won't take your action at this level they're not worth a lot of $ in the long run, but may have some value now. Save every $ you can. It's tempting to buy new clothes and fancy $100 dinners when you have a big win, but each dollar needlessly spent at this level costs a multiple of that in compounded earn.

- Over 100k
            Be willing to travel and search for tolerance. Stay frugal but even the most tolerant place isn't going to let you play 15 hrs/wk there for the length of your playing career. Tolerance and networking become more important than technical game conditions at this point.

-Work on your weaknesses, know them and your strengths
            I think for many AP's our ego will be a weakness. It's easy to get into pissing matches. I think this happens because in most lines of work you are recognized for your talents and accomplishments, in advantage play recognition of your skill is often dangerous and harmful.

- Be Patient!
           Card counting can be a grind with lots of ups and downs. If your skills are strong and you work hard, you will reach whatever realistic goals you set.

- Be aggressive!
         Whether the church team, or Smallcap, every very successful card counter I've heard of in recent memory has had one thing in common: A strength in their game was aggression in bets. Even the best game is only good if it is played well. Costly cover, weak betting spreads, and over tipping will guarantee a card counter mediocrity in the long run. These habits also cost more than the sims will show for a small bankroll, the cost of not being able to apply the additional gains from a stronger game to increase EV faster or decrease risk is very harmful!
        You can ease into it if you want but don't be afraid to push tolerance levels. You will get backed off a lot if you're betting decent money but when you find that place that lets you play 8 hours a day for days or weeks, it's worth it. You'll never find that place if you're never willing to push the boundaries.

-Learn to network effectively
    I recently went on a trip where I had never been, had excellent information from a friend with vast playing experience in the area. The first or second game I would have hit I was advised to play on way out as there would be ramifications elsewhere. A place I may or may not have played without additional info I knew I'd be able to get as many hours as I pleased more or less. I ended up not playing a lot due to illness, but friends can be very helpful! Trust but verify, we're all out to make $ but we all have our own approach. Some people mean you no harm but won't share info on good games. Those guys can be great. When they say somethings bad, it's the first place I check. It can be a tell.

   Develop your own strategy on sharing information that works for you. I'll always try to help anyone who will help me. I think being super worried about getting information of equal value in return can be hurtful. Be careful, but even if I think I helped more than they've helped me, I'm still better off than before and it probably didn't cost me anything, and they often will be appreciative and willing to help when you need it down the line. I tend to be a bit wary of those who always insist that they get equal value in return, I'll be friendly but am usually a bit more guarded. It may work for them, but I think those with this philosophy are always going to try to take advantage of you eventually. Let's take advantage of the casinos.

Hope this can be a help to some.

Good post.

Thanks for the great post. Happy hunting and good luck.

+1, MC.

DON'T PLAY MARGINAL GAMES.

In my opinion // to me -- this means play games where you have a high likelyhood of coming out ahead. Analyze what you're going to play and look at the possible outcomes (over some X period of time). If you don't have a high likelyhood of coming out ahead, you should have an excellent payoff when you do hit (ie: such that if you lose twice as often as expected, you're at least breaking even or better).

People in different situations give different advice.

A red chip player can't play the same way a black/chip player can play. Those with monster bankrolls can play different games and have a different attitude about plays than smaller bankrolled APs. Bob Dancer may not give a sh** about variance since he has the bankroll to back it up. This doesn't mean a lower bankrolled AP should have the same attitude "it all works out in the end". Hint: It doesn't work out in the end if you hit ruin and bust your bankroll.

Get good at MATH and LOGIC. Not everything is straight forward or simple to figure out. Oftentimes it can be very difficult to figure out how to play a newly discovered game. Use logic to figure out how to potentially beat it and use math to determine if it's a good play or not.


Your EV is the most you can expect to get. Mistakes occur -- you're not going to be playing perfectly every time. Extra expenses are incurred -- your car may break down on a trip.....you may get robbed....you may just misplace money (ie: leave it in hotel safe).....you may get shorted on a payout or get the short-end of the stick on a promo (ie: Revel).


Learn from your mistakes. Things go wrong, and when they do, try to figure out what caused it to go wrong so you don't make the same mistake in the future, as you may end up in a similar situation down the road.

Excellent thread. Thanks, guys.

My best advice : CHOOSE A DIFFERENT CAREER FIELD.

I believe AP's will concur ?

Quote: FDEAD3709

My best advice : CHOOSE A DIFFERENT CAREER FIELD.

I believe AP's will concur ?

Depends what you want in life, but if you want it and are cut out for it I'd disagree. If you want the most stable job, then it's not for you. Relationships, or if you have a young family, Are challenging with the lifestyle.

For me, I feel like, if you only have one life to live, spending 40 years behind a desk or bent over a craps table is the wrong choice.

Every man builds his life and makes his choice. Every day is a chance, you need to use it!

Quote: FDEAD3709

My best advice : CHOOSE A DIFFERENT CAREER FIELD.

I believe AP's will concur ?

YES, CHOOSE A DIFFERENT CAREER FIELD

The less AP's the better. Two younger AP's (nice guys BTW, they have accounts on this site) cost us about 14k in value (in just one day) being that they got to the 2 good machines early(You bastards (-: )

I might be overestimating how much it actually cost us because we did get down on other stuff, but you get my point. It only takes a one or 2 people as competition to drastically cut your earnings down.

There are a few people that have everything it takes to become a successful AP, yet they seem to be stuck in a low pay dead end job. If I had to give them some impartial advice, I would have to say.... Go for it. But It's a catch 22. If they are stuck in a low paying job then where do they get the money? Yes you can start with a fairly small bankroll, but you really have to know what you are doing or know someone who does. No amount of math skill, books, programs, radio shows or forum information or whatever is going to help you. Most likely, someone who knows how and what to do isn't just going to give out that kind of free guidance and information.



I know some smart people who tried. They seemed to have what it takes including a fair bankroll. They play +EV stuff properly, they don't over bet their bankroll and run as they should for the most part, but eventually they fail. Each for various different reasons, but there's a few common key elements. I won't go into what I think the key elements are here.

Quote: mcallister3200

For me, I feel like, if you only have one life to live, spending 40 years behind a desk or bent over a craps table is the wrong choice.

Yet there are guys paying thousands of dollars and many hours just hoping they will be bent over a craps table for the next 40 years.

Good luck with that, because NO ONE is actually supporting them self playing craps while using DI techniques.

Oh wait.... were you talking about dealing craps? How much does the average craps dealer make? I would assume that would be one of the less boring dealers job?

If you can, I say, do everything you can to turn your passion or whatever you like into a business.

Quote: mcallister3200

-Learn to network effectively
    I recently went on a trip where I had never been, had excellent information from a friend with vast playing experience in the area. The first or second game I would have hit I was advised to play on way out as there would be ramifications elsewhere. A place I may or may not have played without additional info I knew I'd be able to get as many hours as I pleased more or less. I ended up not playing a lot due to illness, but friends can be very helpful! Trust but verify, we're all out to make $ but we all have our own approach. Some people mean you no harm but won't share info on good games. Those guys can be great. When they say somethings bad, it's the first place I check. It can be a tell.

+1000

Find people you can TRUST. One of the biggest ways to skyrocket yourself from FPDW grinder to big time AP.

It's a lot easier to teach people to learn the ins and outs of AP then to teach them to be trustworthy. Trustworthy people are worth a ton for your AP career. These days it's more about team play then it is solo, at least for the machine aspect. I spoke about a thread earlier where it's a lot better to get 4 people on a $500/hr play then it is to do a $1500/hr play yourself.

There has been a shift in casinos where new players > volume. You get all your value in a small of time as opposed to an all day event, for most cases.

Quote: FDEAD3709

My best advice : CHOOSE A DIFFERENT CAREER FIELD.

I believe AP's will concur ?

Actually, I do concur, and I made my living AP'ing for the better part of eight years. The concept you have to assimilate is opportunity cost. Let's assume that you're talented, diligent, and disciplined enough to be a successful AP. That almost certainly means that you're sufficiently skilled to do well in a number of other fields. And jobs, or entrepreneurship, in those other fields have benefits that AP'ing doesn't. Not to mention the fact that if you turned your AP talents in a different direction, you might make MUCH more money than you would sitting at a blackjack table or vulturing Ultimate X.

Alos, AP'ing involves travel, long hours of sitting, inhaling huge volumes of cigarette smoke, and subsisting on casino coffee shop food. I know dozens of APs, and not one of them is in decent physical shape. Some of them look like walking corpses. I was in pretty bad shape myself when I quit. I still might develop cancer from all the exposure to toxins.

Then there's the fact that an AP life is a lonely life. You operate solo most of the time, and whatever company you have at times is other APs, who are sometimes directly competing with you for whatever crumbs are available. And frankly, most APs, while on the job at least, are not great company.

I don't think that when you're an AP, even if you're successful--particularly if you're successful--you grow or develop personally in any meaningful way. Yes, you make money (hopefully). But is that all you want out of life? It's a grind job, and yes, you might view the money as the means to some delightful end. But I've never known anyone who made his/her stash and then quit to enjoy it. In fact, I know someone--very talented---who hit his personal $250K goal after eight years of effort but kept playing, and was wiped out in three months.

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Actually, I do concur, and I made my living AP'ing for the better part of eight years. The concept you have to assimilate is opportunity cost. Let's assume that you're talented, diligent, and disciplined enough to be a successful AP. That almost certainly means that you're sufficiently skilled to do well in a number of other fields. And jobs, or entrepreneurship, in those other fields have benefits that AP'ing doesn't. Not to mention the fact that if you turned your AP talents in a different direction, you might make MUCH more money than you would sitting at a blackjack table or vulturing Ultimate X.

Alos, AP'ing involves travel, long hours of sitting, inhaling huge volumes of cigarette smoke, and subsisting on casino coffee shop food. I know dozens of APs, and not one of them is in decent physical shape. Some of them look like walking corpses. I was in pretty bad shape myself when I quit. I still might develop cancer from all the exposure to toxins.

Then there's the fact that an AP life is a lonely life. You operate solo most of the time, and whatever company you have at times is other APs, who are sometimes directly competing with you for whatever crumbs are available. And frankly, most APs, while on the job at least, are not great company.

I don't think that when you're an AP, even if you're successful--particularly if you're successful--you grow or develop personally in any meaningful way. Yes, you make money (hopefully). But is that all you want out of life? It's a grind job, and yes, you might view the money as the means to some delightful end. But I've never known anyone who made his/her stash and then quit to enjoy it. In fact, I know someone--very talented---who hit his personal $250K goal after eight years of effort but kept playing, and was wiped out in three months.

Agreed x100 about description of other AP'S

Speaking of career choices, had I a do over, never would have switched to the dark side, AKA, job with a paycheck and paying taxes.
Would have gone for being a steeplechase jockey, and if survived that a horse race trainer.

But as for choosing to be an AP. It's seldom a choice, just seems to happen. Perhaps motivated after being kicked in head in parking lot of Cue Club, I might guess

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Actually, I do concur, and I made my living AP'ing for the better part of eight years. The concept you have to assimilate is opportunity cost. Let's assume that you're talented, diligent, and disciplined enough to be a successful AP. That almost certainly means that you're sufficiently skilled to do well in a number of other fields. And jobs, or entrepreneurship, in those other fields have benefits that AP'ing doesn't. Not to mention the fact that if you turned your AP talents in a different direction, you might make MUCH more money than you would sitting at a blackjack table or vulturing Ultimate X.

What benefits?

I don't consider someone vulturing UX really an AP.
If that's someone's main play I think they are in trouble.
I don't personally know anyone who spends much time actually running around looking for them.
Most successful AP's don't even bother with them unless they just happen to be walking by and then they might check them just for kicks. UX is the last thing on my mind when I'm in a casino.
May I ask....
During what year's were you an AP?
What did you mainly play and concentrate on?
What were some of the good plays were you on?

Excluding people who just concentrated on low or mid level BJ, Pre 2003 there were not really that many AP's, especially people who were supporting themselves.

Most all the Vegas, Laughlin, Reno AP's kind of knew each other and many of the guys from out of state, even the weekend warriors.

You couldn't help but to get know everyone, at least somewhat. You would run into them constantly on plays like when there was a progressive up, a promotion, a good game, a drawing, free slot tournaments, contests, special events, you would see people over and over again. Oftentimes there were only a few banks of playable machines worth playing.

I can usually remember what the play was, who all was there and what they played if it was anything significant or noteworthy.

Vegas sucks for UX. Many better locations out there.

Quote: AxelWolf

What benefits?

May I ask....
During what year's were you an AP?
What did you mainly play and concentrate on?
What were some of the good plays were you on?

If you worked for a company, you could get health insurance, for one thing (being self-employed, I never could, though there were a couple of outrageously priced options out there on occasion). When I worked for Bank of America, we got paid vacation, paid sick days, an employee stock program, a 50% contribution to our IRAs, and the bank paid half of our premiums on its health plan. You work as an AP, your benefits are whatever you accumulate on your slot club card. Until they cancel your account, of course.

I operated in that realm mostly from 1995-2005, and again briefly in 2011-2012. I worked 80% Vegas and 20% Reno and some CA locations. In the earlier period, I worked mostly VP-related promos. The games were pretty good in and of themselves, but there was always some kind of good promo somewhere--usually several at once. Plus, mailers and bounceback were excellent. If you couldn't find a 2% advantage play, you weren't trying very hard. Later in the period, I made a LOT of money playing poker.

I don't remember too many specifics of plays, but I remember one place that had FPJW, an inherent .25 cashback, 3X points on the weekends, and hourly drawings that were worth at least $20 each. That was a quarter play that was worth over $35 an hour. Another was a Rio scratch card promo for any win $25 or over. We played $1 10/7 DB and got a scratch card for every straight or better. They were worth an average of $7 each.

There was even some stuff back then that was worth driving to Laughlin for, but one particular greedy pro made it her base of operations, ferrying carloads of fleas down there with her to exploit promos, and she eventually burned everything out.

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

I don't remember too many specifics of plays, but I remember one place that had FPJW, an inherent .25 cashback, 3X points on the weekends, and hourly drawings that were worth at least $20 each. That was a quarter play that was worth over $35 an hour. Another was a Rio scratch card promo for any win $25 or over. We played $1 10/7 DB and got a scratch card for every straight or better. They were worth an average of $7 each.

Don't have a lot of time right now. But wow Scratch card promo where you got to play 10/7 100.2 $1 with a straight or better playing an extra $7 a pop? What could be better. Hopefully you got a lot of time in on that.

IBBL.

Quote: AxelWolf

Don't have a lot of time right now. But wow Scratch card promo where you got to play 10/7 100.2 $1 with a straight or better playing an extra $7 a pop? What could be better. Hopefully you got a lot of time in on that.

IBBL.

Axel, Axel, you say the silliest things sometimes. You get a straight or better about once every 29 hands at DB. So aside from the small inherent advantage of the game and the points earned, you would get an extra $7 for roughly every $145 of coin-in. You're a math whiz; you figure out how much that was worth.

Edit: I am assuming from your tone that you are being sarcastic.

Axel was actually telling me about that a week or so ago. All the "smart APs" went to the 10/7, but there was something much better right around the corner.

You'd get a straight every 59 hands or no. Not 29.

Quote: RS

Axel was actually telling me about that a week or so ago. All the "smart APs" went to the 10/7, but there was something much better right around the corner.

You'd get a straight every 59 hands or no. Not 29.

Wrong. You get a straight every 90 hands, a flush every 90 hands, and a full house every 90 hands. So once every 30 hands, you get a $25+ win on a dollar machine. I lowered that to once every 29 hands because you also got a scratch card for a quad or a straight flush, and if you played the game correctly by adjusting for the promo, you got even more straights than you normally would have.

There may indeed have been something better under a rock nearby, but back in the day, there was always something good available. This was low-variance and surprisingly, no heat or hassle.

Earlier I thought you said you get a straight (not or better) every 29 hands.

Regardless, I'm a bit leery on your math. You don't get a straight every 90 hands, but 59. But a ~6.5% advantage regardless. Unless you want to compare apples and oranges.

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Wrong. You get a straight every 90 hands, a flush every 90 hands, and a full house every 90 hands. So once every 30 hands, you get a $25+ win on a dollar machine. I lowered that to once every 29 hands because you also got a scratch card for a quad or a straight flush, and if you played the game correctly by adjusting for the promo, you got even more straights than you normally would have.

There may indeed have been something better under a rock nearby, but back in the day, there was always something good available. This was low-variance and surprisingly, no heat or hassle.

Were you allowed to use cell phones in sports books back then? Was raising 3x in UTH considered optimal strategy back then? Did UTH even exist in the stone age?

Quote: RS

Earlier I thought you said you get a straight (not or better) every 29 hands.

Regardless, I'm a bit leery on your math. You don't get a straight every 90 hands, but 59. But a ~6.5% advantage regardless. Unless you want to compare apples and oranges.

Yeah, whatever the exact numbers were, it was a monster play. I remember that we played the game quite a bit differently than normal optimal strategy, since the paytable was now effectively 11/8/6 rather than 10/7/5.

Quote: RogerKint

Were you allowed to use cell phones in sports books back then? Was raising 3x in UTH considered optimal strategy back then? Did UTH even exist in the stone age?

3x is always optimal! You get your action down while reducing variance, the best of both worlds. Same concept applies to Mississippi Stud, where you should 2x (never 1x, not enough action. never 3x, too much variance). Need I explain why doubling for less is optimal in BJ, too?

Quote: RogerKint

Were you allowed to use cell phones in sports books back then? Was raising 3x in UTH considered optimal strategy back then? Did UTH even exist in the stone age?

Try not to act so much like yourself, just for the sake of a refreshing change.

You didn't even comprehend what I was saying about the UTH strategy adjustments BTW. But then, neither did my cat, even though she read my post over my shoulder.

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Try not to act so much like yourself, just for the sake of a refreshing change.

You didn't even comprehend what I was saying about the UTH strategy adjustments BTW. But then, neither did my cat, even though she read my post over my shoulder.

Lol got em. There's no come back for that.

Btw You should 2x the river in UTH

Quote: RS

3x is always optimal! You get your action down while reducing variance, the best of both worlds. Same concept applies to Mississippi Stud, where you should 2x (never 1x, not enough action. never 3x, too much variance). Need I explain why doubling for less is optimal in BJ, too?

You only double for less when getting extra info. Come onnnnnn even my cat knows that.

Great post, mcallister3200. Tons of great AP information throughout the entire thing. I'd highly recommend newer AP's read and reread the first post!

Quote: RogerKint

Quote: RS

3x is always optimal! You get your action down while reducing variance, the best of both worlds. Same concept applies to Mississippi Stud, where you should 2x (never 1x, not enough action. never 3x, too much variance). Need I explain why doubling for less is optimal in BJ, too?

You only double for less when getting extra info. Come onnnnnn even my cat knows that.

I prefer the rarely seen split for less:-)

Quote: Hunterhill

Quote: RogerKint

Quote: RS

3x is always optimal! You get your action down while reducing variance, the best of both worlds. Same concept applies to Mississippi Stud, where you should 2x (never 1x, not enough action. never 3x, too much variance). Need I explain why doubling for less is optimal in BJ, too?

You only double for less when getting extra info. Come onnnnnn even my cat knows that.

I prefer the rarely seen split for less:-)

Forget the illustrious 18, all you need is the shlabotnik 1: split 5s for less when getting extra info.

Quote: RogerKint

Quote: Hunterhill

Quote: RogerKint

Quote: RS

3x is always optimal! You get your action down while reducing variance, the best of both worlds. Same concept applies to Mississippi Stud, where you should 2x (never 1x, not enough action. never 3x, too much variance). Need I explain why doubling for less is optimal in BJ, too?

You only double for less when getting extra info. Come onnnnnn even my cat knows that.

I prefer the rarely seen split for less:-)

Forget the illustrious 18, all you need is the shlabotnik 1: split 5s for less when getting extra info.

Or the RogerKint Special: put words in someone's mouth and then mock them for saying those words.

It's interesting that only one of you geniuses managed to figure out why I said that a 3X raise might be appropriate IN THIS SPECIFIC CONTEXT. I of course am aware that it's not a good idea in general. But weren't we talking about a very specific situation? I know you tend to forget details like that, Roger.

Now move along...(or beat this to death, if you wish)

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Quote: RogerKint

Quote: Hunterhill

Quote: RogerKint

Quote: RS

3x is always optimal! You get your action down while reducing variance, the best of both worlds. Same concept applies to Mississippi Stud, where you should 2x (never 1x, not enough action. never 3x, too much variance). Need I explain why doubling for less is optimal in BJ, too?

You only double for less when getting extra info. Come onnnnnn even my cat knows that.

I prefer the rarely seen split for less:-)

Forget the illustrious 18, all you need is the shlabotnik 1: split 5s for less when getting extra info.

Or the RogerKint Special: put words in someone's mouth and then mock them for saying those words.

It's interesting that only one of you geniuses managed to figure out why I said that a 3X raise might be appropriate IN THIS SPECIFIC CONTEXT. I of course am aware that it's not a good idea in general. But weren't we talking about a very specific situation? I know you tend to forget details like that, Roger.

Now move along...(or beat this to death, if you wish)

I learned from the best. Show us the way, Joe.

Honestly, since you do the same to so many others on this forum, I thought you'd be cool with it and see the humor. Since I offended you, however, I'm truly sorry.

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Axel, Axel, you say the silliest things sometimes. You get a straight or better about once every 29 hands at DB. So aside from the small inherent advantage of the game and the points earned, you would get an extra $7 for roughly every $145 of coin-in. You're a math whiz; you figure out how much that was worth.

Edit: I am assuming from your tone that you are being sarcastic.

You definitely got me. I was absolutely being SARCASTIC. I'm definitely not a math wiz, I'm not sure what's worst my writing or math skills. Some people have some strange assumptions about AP and what it takes. I just hear blah, blah, blah. I don't even try to correct people's assumunions since they are going to argue and belive what they want to believe. I just have to roll my eyes sometimes

Perhaps I'm just a anomaly or something.

I will tell you this, with a few exeptions, the guys who are absolutely stellar at math make for bad Advantage Players. Math alone won't do sh*t for you. Savvy people get the money. The guy who I knew to be absolutely brilliant when it came to math and figuring VP and slots without a computer. This guy knew just about anything and everything you could imagine. He had been there since before VP. A was a very nice guy, fun to talk to interesting stories. If you were walking in the casino you and seen him you would think he was a homeless person. Srcraggly long beard, roll your own cigarettes, clothing that came from the savation army. Tape on his glasses

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Axel, Axel, you say the silliest things sometimes. You get a straight or better about once every 29 hands at DB. So aside from the small inherent advantage of the game and the points earned, you would get an extra $7 for roughly every $145 of coin-in. You're a math whiz; you figure out how much that was worth.

Edit: I am assuming from your tone that you are being sarcastic.

Well, I'm definitely not a math genius, But it wasn't worth much for you considering (I'll explain why later). I'm not sure what's worse, my writing or my math skill. I think there's many misconceptions about AP and what it actually takes, especially all that dedication, discipline and you would be highly paid doing something else BS. Perhaps I'm an anomaly and seriously break the mold.

After reading what you wrote, I now understand why you seem to have such a dim view of advantage play. IMO you had 8 years of doing it wrong. And I definitely wouldn't consider the 10/7 @ the Rio a big play or anything else you mentioned. Your plays seemed to be in the mid $30 per hour. Many guys wouldn't play anything less than $50 an Hr. Especially when there were quite a few low variance, low BR plays worth up to thousands per hour. If advantage players are not finding new and interesting plays that are valuable, or if they are working for others, it can be boring, frustrating and not that lucrative.

BTW. IMO. other than a few exceptions, guys that are really stellar at math make the worst Advantage Players. Guys who are savvy, clever, creative and have AP gambling smarts are the ones who actually get the money.

Anyone can learn to play 10/7 on multiple point days and then quickly jump on that anytime the casino is giving out an extra dollar and have an advantage.


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Some things you say about AP seems strange and off base with only slight hints of reality.

When I asked you about your 8 year AP claim and plays, you just happen to mention that one that I posted about already https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/14752-past-great-plays-in-vp/3/#post261708.
Notice I didn't mention what I played at the Rio(that was on purpose) FYI. It's well known they had 10/7.

I Noticed in that same thread I mentioned the 4 of a kind paycheck promotion at the frontier. You just happened to write a story about that to. I believe I know that person you talked about, and it's not as it seems. That person is more of a crazy Hustler(a successful one) not really an AP and oftentimes has backing on anything with even the slightest risk. I'm almost certain that was the case at the frontier, including who actually had the approved business check account. I can't find it now, but either I or someone else wrote about getting business check approval for doing this. Something I did myself along with the pawn shop method. I actually came up with a much better) way than both methods(easier IMO. It almost always guarantees approval without having to get an account.

Again, in my same post from the link above, I mentioned Laughlin being good. I went there often, with little competition on good promos, at some point R.M. took over Laughlin, but it was still for me. Hell, My GF and I went solo in Laughlin for about a year between 2002 - 2004 while Traveling back to Vegas to check on my place, or if something better came up. You claimed something about the same female running people and burning everything out there, however that's not true I, and anyone I asked can't ever remember her there burning anything out. Perhaps one or two small plays.

The other day soon after I used the 4 to a Royal example you soon after brought up the Tuscany 4 to the Royal promo, as always with your normal negativity (again you didn't play the obvious good machines.).
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Of course I was being sarcastic. Given your edit I'm wondering if you only realized that after RS outed me and killed my fun with this post....

Quote: RS

Axel was actually telling me about that a week or so ago. All the "smart APs" went to the 10/7, but there was something much better right around the corner..

Isn't that just funny, what good timing? At least we know that what I'm about to say wasn't made and only said after and directed at Joeshlabotnik. Before any of this came up, having no clue he played this(I'm skeptical, but that's ok because I can conclude 1 of 2 things)

So yes, I was talking to RS (before your post). I was using the Rio play and the 10/7 as an example of why many AP's don't always think and are not that sharp. They oftentimes just know and use basic known ABC AP. That's why I always felt it's important NOT to educate and spread around TMI. It's not good to publicly talk about plays, not hand feed everyone information about what and how to play stuff. There's so many AP's that can't and don't actually figure out the good/best stuff to play themselves. Oftentimes it's monkey see, monkey do, but there's little you can do about that. Usually there's limited seats available and the casinos can only tolerate giving out so much money. It's not just the casinos hampering you, the competition is what really costs you the most amount of money.

(Obviously there are a few very sharp AP's around, so no discredit to anyone, there's always someone better, quicker, stronger and smarter)
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I can usually remember plays fairly well, including who all played them, especially people who played the juicy games, I was oftentimes sitting near them especially if we couldn't lock something up. Even though it was over 20 years ago and I was very young. I remember the Rio play especially well for many reasons, some details on plays get a bit foggy, but I can even remember the names of some of the cute change girls who handed out the scratch cards(I even went on a few dates with one).

One big reason I remember it well, was the fact that it was a pivotal point for me, one where I realized a few different things. Don't follow the average(or even the better than average) AP crowd, obvious games and their ABC thinking. Even just a little bit of outside the box thinking could make the difference from a marginal play to a significant one.

The Rio was early on in my AP career.
It was very low variance and very lucrative on the right games. (after you got rolling the scratch cards totally funded the rest of the play.)
It was a nice "easy" bankroll boost for me, especially for the length of time ( less than 1 month, excluding attending the drawing).
It was very fun, especially what I played.
Was able to hire 3 non AP friends one former roommate.
I got screwed out of a bonus $20k from the casino drawing. They knew it was my ticket pulled, they said it was not legible(perhaps it was smudged) and tossed it back in.


Some details about that promotion:
The promotion was in about 1995 and 1996. It was called Cash Is King¢ (one million giveaway). It was a month long promotion during the holiday season.

Any $25 hit got you a scratch card given out by the slot employees(usually a change person). IIRC They had to write some quick informing on them.

Approximately half the cards were winners I'd say 41% - 45% (The winners were mostly $5's) I remember $5's 10's 20's 50's and the somewhat rare, but not impossible $100's. I remember someone saying they got a $200 but I never seen it. There may have been a few 1k cards as well.

I highly doubt the tickets were worth $7 (but had you played something better you would've gotten a large enough sample size to realize that. $5 each would be more like it, possibly 5.50 if you counted the drawing. People might say, but Axel, $5.00 or $7 really what's the difference? For some who played the 10/7 DB not much difference. But for some, what's thousands of scratch cards times $1 or $2, you tell me? Some people who got significantly less tickets than us said they were worth less(Not worth arguing that). I know some people who sometimes double claimed a few to make it more lucrative for themselves. I didn't participate in those shenanigans.Not to mention they caught on to that and started watching and making people play it off immediately, that worked out in my favor since we earned them so quickly. I remember one person got an ear full after being caught doing that.

You could save your winning scratch cards up and cash them at the end up the day. The losing scratch cards went into an end of the month drawing. 20k for first place and a bunch of 1k winners. Some claim 25k for first place but I'll bet them it was 20k.

They also had tickets for a Football picks contest cards they handed out for flushes.(I earned very few myself since I didn't play much VP) Many Ap's thought I was crazy for buying them. What everyone didn't know, if you turned your losing(or the even the winner) FB contest sports tickets in at the cage after sportsbook hours, some would actually scan as $2 to $10 winning sports tickets. I'm not sure how many you needed to get correct for that to happen, perhaps 6 or 7 out of 14 or whatever. I gladly bought other AP's football entries for pennies.

Axel what's your beef, Joeshl was right, it was a good play on the $1 10/7? Technically yes, but not nearly as good as a few other choices(last thing on my list). On Top of that, they slowed the machines down to one of the slowest speed possible from early on.(I thought the made them auto coin droppers as well) Anyone that has seen this slow speed knows how painfully slow that is on an old IGT VP machine.
Deal= pause..Blink............................Blink...........................Blink.....................Blink.........................Blink Hold
hold/Redraw zilch Blink............................Blink...........................Blink.....................Blink.........................Blink. Your pay back blip....blip...blip....blip....blip....bilp...blip. You couldn't possibly earn that many per hour. Some people actually gave up because of the slow speed. So unless you were playing multiple machines, pulling shenanigans and tipping well the 10/7 sucked donkey ball. Even if you did all that 10/7 wasn't great.

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

.

There may indeed have been something better under a rock nearby, but back in the day, there was always something good available. .

Actually nothing was hiding under a rock. If you were playing the $1 10/7 the good machines were directly behind you or around the back side in clear view just a few feet away. It would've been almost impossible not to notice the good machines since the change people for that section were basically parked next to the good machines handing me and my friend scratch cards one after another. The 10/7 people would oftentimes have to turn around and flag the change/slot people over away from us. The good tippers obviously got faster service, but then you're tickets were worth less. We could afford to tip significantly more than others.
The good machines were the 2 very visible upright $1 Sigma good rules BJ machines, they actually stood out because they weren't IGT and were not mixed in with other machines. Certainly much less variance than 10/7 and significant more valuable. Had they slowed them down it wouldn't have made much difference. (Sigma machines always seemed fun to play)
The machines were wide open when I arrived( I was fairly late to the party), no one else thought to play them. Some people were already on the 10/7's, including some now notable well known people.

We had the best machines going 24/7.

Also you could've played $5 9/6 JOB at the beginning. Jacks or better got you a ticket. Not to mention your own high limit room attendant( I can't remember how long that lasted but not too long ). But if you value the scratchers at $5 it's 108.64% Every 50 hands was worth $108

I also played Sneaky Queens. That was significantly better than 10/7 even if they had they slowed them down, but they never did, because only one other person I know of target them.

I even played Sigma Derby for a while and did well, but I wasn't sure how good that was.

IIRC they even had the .25 Flush attack machines as well.

There was another game far better than 10/7 (not under a rock), but I'll save that for later. Perhaps you can figure it out on the internet somewhere.

They also had some crazy multiple way, multiple coin criss cross poker.. That was under a rock, and it's the the first and last time I played or seen it.

There's a part 2, but this is long enough (sorry its so long guys/gals)

Tl, dr. Did tthree from BJTF just hijack Axel's account?

Quote: mcallister3200

Tl, dr.

Quote: mcallister3200

Tl, dr...

Seriously Axel, you say I have long winded posts???

Well, Axel, I freely admit that I rarely if ever identified, much less played, the best games/promotions in the city or even the best ones in the casino. Back then as now, there was an opportunity cost attached to scouting. If I spent a day not playing a $30 an hour game because I was looking for one worth $35, that would have been hard to make up. Back then, $30 an hour--on my own schedule, and on my own terms--was damned good money. It still wouldn't be bad now, which is underscored by how the fleas swarm when some play worth half that much surfaces.

Also, there were times when I/we knew very well about objectively better plays but felt that they required too much bankroll risk. I knew quite a few very talented people who had busted out due to greed and/or lack of discipline. I was quite happy to not ride the fastest gravy train.

Quote: Romes

Seriously Axel, you say I have long winded posts???

I knew you would bring that up. I was going to add something about you saying something but it was already to long.

Anyway....

Axel = 3 out of 11,000 long winded posts. Romes = 1000 out of 3000 long winded posts (-:

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Well, Axel, I freely admit that I rarely if ever identified, much less played, the best games/promotions in the city or even the best ones in the casino. Back then as now, there was an opportunity cost attached to scouting. If I spent a day not playing a $30 an hour game because I was looking for one worth $35, that would have been hard to ma ke up. Back then, $30 an hour--on my own schedule, and on my own terms--was damned good money. It still wouldn't be bad now, which is underscored by how the fleas swarm when some play worth half that much surfaces.

Also, there were times when I/we knew very well about objectively better plays but felt that they required too much bankroll risk. I knew quite a few very talented people who had busted out due to greed and/or lack of discipline. I was quite happy to not ride the fastest gravy train.

Fair enough.

I will say that there were quite a few big low variance that required a very small BR if done correctly and you knew what you were doing and what to look for. Oftentimes you didn't know it until you seen it. There wasn't a guide or book telling you what to look for. Oftentimes Things came up that never had before.

We are talking 150% ++ on as low as .25 denomination. For example, the Fiesta in the new section had progressive meters on .25 deuces wild ST8F, payed $45(should be $10) 5K, payed $80 (should be $20) WR paid $125(should be $31,25) 4 duces $350+ (should be $250), RF (Cant remember, but not big). You can run it, but at one point it was over 200% payback.

I could name many such things but don't want Romes claiming I wrote a book. Also I don't want to be bringing up stuff that could be viable nowadays.