Poll

1 vote (7.69%)
2 votes (15.38%)
5 votes (38.46%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (23.07%)
1 vote (7.69%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (7.69%)

13 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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July 11th, 2016 at 3:39:57 AM permalink
I saw a new side bet in Lake Tahoe a few days ago. The title, according to the AGS web site is IN BETween. From the table, I interpreted the title to be use "in."

The rules are pretty simple. You bet that the dealer's up card will be between the player's two up cards in rank. For this purpose, aces are high only. The smaller the spread, the more you win. Following is my return table, based on six decks.

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Triple match 30 157,872 0.005248 0.157453
One-card spread 10 304,128 0.010111 0.101107
Two-card spread 6 552,960 0.018383 0.110298
Three-card spread 4 746,496 0.024817 0.099268
All other spreads 1 6,303,744 0.209567 0.209567
Loss -1 22,014,720 0.731874 -0.731874
Total 30,079,920 1.000000 -0.054182


So, house edge of 5.42%.

Anybody agree/disagree with my math?

The question for the poll is would you play IN BETween?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizardofnothing
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July 11th, 2016 at 3:47:26 AM permalink
This use to be the only side bet at the borgata imo it's the absolute most unfun side bet I have ever played
The highest layout is pretty low and almost never comes in which is trips. And the second drops all the way down to 10-1 for a straight but it's worse then having a straight because it has to be the dealer that has the middle part of the straight- to the best of my knowledge it's uncountable
No longer hiring, donít ask because I wonít hire you either
beachbumbabs
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July 11th, 2016 at 4:12:20 AM permalink
I hate this kind of sidebet. Least favorite bet structure, regardless of the game including those where that's the main mechanism. And there have been a lot of them over the years.

So congratulations are in order. You've finally found a sidebet I won't play. Lol...
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
charliepatrick
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July 11th, 2016 at 4:26:32 AM permalink
Yes I agree - the rule means strictly between, for instance KQ does not win against dealer's K or Q, but "spread 1" means your KJ wins against dealer's Q.
DecksHouse Edge
110.462%
27.758%
46.042%
65.418%
85.097%
9999994.097%

House edge high - "best avoided".
100xOdds
100xOdds
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July 11th, 2016 at 4:49:57 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I saw a new side bet in Lake Tahoe a few days ago. The title, according to the AGS web site is IN BETween. From the table, I interpreted the title to be use "in."

The rules are pretty simple. You bet that the dealer's up card will be between the player's two up cards in rank. For this purpose, aces are high only. The smaller the spread, the more you win. Following is my return table, based on six decks.

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Triple match 30 157,872 0.005248 0.157453
One-card spread 10 304,128 0.010111 0.101107
Two-card spread 6 552,960 0.018383 0.110298
Three-card spread 4 746,496 0.024817 0.099268
All other spreads 1 6,303,744 0.209567 0.209567
Loss -1 22,014,720 0.731874 -0.731874
Total 30,079,920 1.000000 -0.054182


So, house edge of 5.42%.

Anybody agree/disagree with my math?

The question for the poll is would you play IN BETween?


I thought you already had in-between analyzed years ago on WoO page?

and Angie from poll (NSFW):
https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2833/12706837393_5b7441a7c3_b.jpg
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
miplet
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July 11th, 2016 at 6:23:13 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

I thought you already had in-between analyzed years ago on WoO page?



2348 days ago.
ďMan BabesĒ #AxelFabulous
Doc
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July 11th, 2016 at 6:36:00 AM permalink
Except the payout for the 1 spread got worse, giving a higher HE.
Wizardofnothing
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July 11th, 2016 at 8:16:33 AM permalink
Who is Angie?
No longer hiring, donít ask because I wonít hire you either
Paradigm
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July 11th, 2016 at 9:40:35 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

This use to be the only side bet at the borgata imo it's the absolute most unfun side bet I have ever played
The highest layout is pretty low and almost never comes in which is trips. And the second drops all the way down to 10-1 for a straight but it's worse then having a straight because it has to be the dealer that has the middle part of the straight- to the best of my knowledge it's uncountable


The real "unfun" part is that 78% of your wins on the In Bet are paid even money...I normally call a proposition like that the "main bet".

What side bet has made it on to the floor at Borgata in addition to the In Bet?
Wizard
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July 11th, 2016 at 10:15:26 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

2348 days ago.



Dang. I knew it looked familiar.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
100xOdds
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July 11th, 2016 at 11:14:21 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: miplet

2348 days ago.



Dang. I knew it looked familiar.


so apparently $2.4M increases white hair AND memory loss. :)
I also heard they're the 2nd and 3rd things that goes...
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
TwoFeathersATL
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July 11th, 2016 at 12:33:44 PM permalink
And someone asked " who is Angie ".

We all get old, well the good die young. For the rest of us, take all your money and limited energy and go find Angie and buy her a drink. Apparently you will live forever on social media......
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
GWAE
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July 11th, 2016 at 12:36:03 PM permalink
This used to be thr only side bet available around here. Odds got worse over the last 5 years. 1 card used to pay 12 I believe but now it is 10 here too.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Wizard
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July 11th, 2016 at 12:54:19 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so apparently $2.4M increases white hair AND memory loss. :)
I also heard they're the 2nd and 3rd things that goes...



Ouch! Pass the Cialis.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
gordonm888
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GambleIfWifeOKs
July 11th, 2016 at 2:25:51 PM permalink
First, I have verified the Wizard's calculations - specifically, the EVs -using a different calculational approach. I calculate that the total EV of this sidebet is -0.054182059. -in agreement with the Wiz.

Clearly, this is not a sidebet of interest to APs, but I will provide some additional calculations for those of you who like mathematics.

The EOR, or effect of removal of a single card from the 6 card deck as measured by its effect on EV, is:

2, Ace: + 0.001416
3, K: + 0.000759
4,Q: + 0.000101
5, J: - 0.000402
6 - T: - 0.000750

Why do different ranks have different EORs? As the player, it is desirable to have an Ace or 2 in your hand and less desirable to have a 6-T -because with a rank such as A or 2 in your hand you are much more likely to get a payout for an in-between card. Holding a 6 - T cuts the deck in half and decreases the likelihood of the dealers card being a rank between your 2 ranks.

Of course, the Ace and deuce are the absolute worst cards for the dealer to hold - when the dealer has an A or 2 then the player loses his bet almost 100% of the time -except for the statistically rare times when the player makes a triple match. Conversely, when the dealer has a 6 through 10, your chances of having an Acey-Deucey-type payoff are high. But this is a weaker influence -the dominant effect on the EV originates from the situations when the player hold these cards.

On Beyond Eliot Jacobsen: Let's look at when the cards that are removed from the deck (or that have already been dealt) are evenly distributed in ranks. For example, if 26 cards - exactly 2 of each rank - are removed from the deck the EV goes from -0.5418 to -0.05803. The small shift in EV occurs because the likelihood of getting a triple match is lower. For comparison, lets look at what happens if we remove all 24 cards of one rank from the deck, that is, for example, all 24 Aces or all 24 7's. Its no surprise that the EV depends upon which rank has been removed, but the absolute values and trends may surprise. In the table below, I list the actual value of the EV when the 24 cards of a specific rank are removed:

- None: - 0.0542
- Ace or 2 + 0.0004
- K or 3 - 0.0194
- Q or 4 - 0.0393
- J or 5 - 0.0545
- 6 thru T - 0.0651

So the IN-Bet side-bet climbs up to a positive EV of + 0.0004 if all 24 Aces (or all 24 deuces) are gone.

If you shorten the 6 decks by removing two ranks - 48 cards - from the top or bottom of the deck, that is, if you remove all the A's and 2's , or all the A's and K's, or all the 2's and 3's, the EV of this sidebet becomes quite positive: EV = + 0.06964. The EV is greatly enhanced by the higher probability of getting dealt a Triple Match: the probability of getting a Triple Match, with its 30X payout, is 0.0052 with all 312 cards in the deck and is 0.0073 when any 2 ranks (48 cards) are removed. With a 30X payout, the difference between a Triple Match probability of 0.0052 and 0.0073 is 0.066 in EV.

Is this useful information? Well, if the first 48 cards out of the deck are almost entirely Aces and 2s (or A-K or 2-3) then you should bet like hell on the IN-BET side-bet. But, LOL, that isn't going to happen even once in a dozen lifetimes. So, NO, its not useful for gaining an edge on the IN-BET side-bet.

But, this is how I like to think about games. If you're a game designer or a mathematically-advanced AP, maybe this discussion was interesting. (or...NOT, lol.)
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Wizard
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July 11th, 2016 at 6:42:06 PM permalink
Great post, thank you. Thanks also for confirming my numbers.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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March 3rd, 2017 at 3:15:23 PM permalink
I am just waking up all kinds of old threads today, aren't I? This is all due to a visit to the Cannery, where I haven't set foot in several years, and saw all kinds of side bets that I've started work on but never got around to publishing. In this case, I couldn't find my original work so had to do it over again. At least I had my old numbers here to compare to. These bets, where order matters, can be tricky.

The last of these such bets is this one, the In BETween. You may know by the name "In." Please click the link for all the details.

As always, I welcome questions, comments, and especially corrections.

Thank you.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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