side bet odds

Anyone do the math on BJ side bets that pay 9 to 1 if your two cards and dealer's up card make a set, or a three card straight, flush or straight flush? I see people seemingly raking in $$, sometimes going on streaks of winning 3 in a row. The rational side of me, wisely I think, does not play these bets. If they are their then the casino is set to have odds well in their favor. What are the odds and if I were to play 500 hands with a $5 side bet each hand how much would I lose over the course of those hands?

Thanks

wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/8

Look under 21 + 3

Quote: swanny903

if I were to play 500 hands with a $5 side bet each hand how much would I lose over the course of those hands?

Thanks

that is a binomial probability type question
others may give you an average loss for many many many many 500 round sessions
that's ok too

I gets
probability of 0.5749651 of a 500 round session loss
and given a session loss, a mean loss at -307.31

what remains is a
225.22 mean gain
when a session loss does not happen. (could be $0 gain too)

<< >>
thought to add a bit bit more as this bet with a low HE can not slaughter a player even over 3,000 such bets (a LONG RUN, not THE LONG RUN that = forever)
lots of room for players to win and win nicely too


this is easily simulated in like Excel also
(that is how I learned to calculate it. not many do the calc)
see


Sally

Hi swanny, and welcome to the forums.

The 21+3 side bet is countable, to an extent, but with the max bet in place and the infrequency with which you'll find yourself in betting situations, the Expected Value (EV) for all your hard work might be a couple bucks per hour... Which you're more than likely losing on the blackjack hands themselves within that hour. Not worth it. Remember, this is when you use a specific counting system to track cards to determine when to bet. This bet is NOT worth a couple bucks per hour if you're just playing it straight up.

You'll see people "rake it in" on side bets from time to time because they're just getting lucky. Side bets are almost all horrible bets with huge house edges. A "decent" game of blackjack has about a .36% house edge, where as these side bets are typically 5%-10% and higher. Side bets are sucker bets.

The link you were provided on the side bet should give you all the information you need to answer your question. The house edge (from the link) is 3.2% for 6 decks. So if you were to place a $5 bet for 500 hands, what would your Expected Loss (EL) be?

EL = TotalWagered*HouseEdge = (AvgBet * NumHands) * HouseEdge = (5 * 500) * (-.032) = (2500)*(-.032) = -$80.

So for every 500 hands you play, you can expect to lose $80 playing this side bet. Now there is this thing called "variance." This means in the short span of 500 hands tonight you could get 'lucky' and hit a bunch of times and be up a little money. You could also get 'unlucky' and lose $1,000 in 1 night. However, over the LONG RUN you WILL average out to losing $80 per 500 hands you play.

Thanks everyone for your time and answers. Definitely reassures me that I am correct in not touching these side bets! I thought at first about maybe playing one every so often but that makes even less sense than playing every hand. At least with every hand you will pull in a winner every time you match the three cards. If I you just randomly play the side bet then I assume the odds have to get way worse for you as you're going to miss out on the winning hands a lot more than the losing ones!!

You have no way of knowin when you place the bet if you're going to win or lose. The odds remain the same from hand to hand (without targeted counting). So actually you're incorrect in your assumption.

If you were to play $5 for 500 hands straight, your expected loss is $80. However, if you were to play "every other" hand $5 for 500 hands straight, then you'd end up betting half the amount and projected to lose only half the amount. So now you're EL is only $40. So you see, since it has a negative edge, the less you bet it the better. IF someone 'loved' to play it, I'd simply suggest they played it as little as possible because that's what's going to get your "total wagered" number lower and thus your expected loss lower.

The best you can do on that side bet is to not play it at all, bringing your TotalWagered to 0, resulting in a $0 loss.

He's 'flawed'.

Did you see that other thread appear and disappear in just a couple minutes?

And I typed a joke in it,,but it wouldn't post. Helluva punch line too ;-(

Obviously some one is watching.
I should go now ;-)

Quote: swanny903

If I you just randomly play the side bet then I assume the odds have to get way worse for you as you're going to miss out on the winning hands a lot more than the losing ones!!

what huh ??
explain this reasoning as it makes no sense.
<<< >>>
you could easily make
exactly 9 lifetime bets and no more
for fun and excitement for a lifetime

that gives you a 60% chance of winning at least $5, 1 win and lost 8
(or $55 or $105 with more than 1 win, etc)
worse case, lose $45 (no big deal)

http://www.di-mgt.com.au/binomial-calculator.html
p=0.09676
n=9

Quote: Romes

If you were to play $5 for 500 hands straight, your expected loss is $80.

there is no expected loss of 80 for one session of play
that is so silly it is silly

expected loss for one session
hahahahah
heheheh
la la tea due

in other words
no way

start over
math is fun
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/binomial-distribution.html
<<< >>>
one could either
lose $50 with a probability of about 5.9644%
lose $100 with a probability of about 6.0356%

way way way
more likely to end somewhere else...
like in New Mexico or Indio, CA

Quote: mustangsally

there is no expected loss of 80 for one session of play
that is so silly it is silly...

Oh Sally. You saw my explanation of "variance"/luck to the OP. I was answering the question at the level I felt the OP would understand. No need to involve standard deviations on a per session basis to get the answers he was seeking. Thus, no need to nit pick my response when we both know between you and me we're on the same page =).

Can you post a pic of that page you're on with Sally?
No pic, it didn't happen....

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/25705-side-bet-odds/

=D

Quote: Romes

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/25705-side-bet-odds/

=D

You tricked me. I am so gullible....

About a month ago I was playing in Biloxi and this woman next to me won the side-bet and started badgering me to play it every time one of my hands would have hit. Finally I jokingly said "no thanks, that's a sucker's bet". Then she just kept winning it and winning it and winning it. Very frustrating. I even tried pointing out how much I'd have lost if I had played it each hand.

Quote: Skeptic

About a month ago I was playing in Biloxi and this woman next to me won the side-bet and started badgering me to play it every time one of my hands would have hit. Finally I jokingly said "no thanks, that's a sucker's bet". Then she just kept winning it and winning it and winning it. Very frustrating. I even tried pointing out how much I'd have lost if I had played it each hand.

If she is winning it, winning it, and winning it, just cheer her on.
Ask if she needs a new friend ;-)

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

If she is winning it, winning it, and winning it, just cheer her on.
Ask if she needs a new friend ;-)

Must've been 18 times in a row!

Regarding the OP:

I did a quick and rough suit-neutral calculation:

Given you are 50% of the way through a 6-deck shoe the 0.0331% average chance of getting either a straight or a straight flush is increased by something like 0.0003% for a Hi-Lo count of +8. That's about a 1% relative increase in expected value on straights and straight flush payouts.

So, its what Romes already said..