Greg216
Greg216
Joined: Feb 22, 2016
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February 23rd, 2016 at 5:33:14 AM permalink
Not the best counter , but my general play of late (especially when I have limited time ) is to flat bet near the min (or just $25per) until we get deeper in the shoe so I can see where we are. Then I start to stack up my wins or just push $100 or 200 on a hand or two and win and hopefully color up . It has worked many times , my thinking is : if I min bet at a $10 dollar table it will take an incredible run/shoe for me to win 15 /20 hands and be up 150/200 dollars (sitting with 2-300) . Instead, if I can win 2 or 3 big hands in a row or 4 out of 5 I can be up $200 and walk if I want or go back to lower wagers and protect my winnings . When I get up to double my buy in or more I usually institute a " if I lose two hands in a row , I am done for now ". Suprisingly, I often built in my stack even playing 50 per hand . Much of this was on a recent trip to Vegas . I also did cash out on video black jack turning 80 into 700 and 200 into 700 locally . I also enjoyed double deck a lot more than 8 shoe . The Cromwell was very good to me. Also included a nice 350 hit on roulette on my wife's number (up 200 on roulette) and saw a dude hit for 3500 with his wife after getting down 800 and waiting for the shuttle to he airport.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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February 23rd, 2016 at 5:42:33 AM permalink
Quote: Greg216

Not the best counter , but my general play of late (especially when I have limited time ) is to flat bet near the min (or just $25per) until we get deeper in the shoe so I can see where we are. Then I start to stack up my wins or just push $100 or 200 on a hand or two and win and hopefully color up . It has worked many times , my thinking is : if I min bet at a $10 dollar table it will take an incredible run/shoe for me to win 15 /20 hands and be up 150/200 dollars (sitting with 2-300) . Instead, if I can win 2 or 3 big hands in a row or 4 out of 5 I can be up $200 and walk if I want or go back to lower wagers and protect my winnings . When I get up to double my buy in or more I usually institute a " if I lose two hands in a row , I am done for now ". Suprisingly, I often built in my stack even playing 50 per hand . Much of this was on a recent trip to Vegas . I also did cash out on video black jack turning 80 into 700 and 200 into 700 locally . I also enjoyed double deck a lot more than 8 shoe . The Cromwell was very good to me. Also included a nice 350 hit on roulette on my wife's number (up 200 on roulette) and saw a dude hit for 3500 with his wife after getting down 800 and waiting for the shuttle to he airport.

None of this sounds like Advantage Play to me, but I think you know that.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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February 23rd, 2016 at 5:49:27 AM permalink
I didn't see any thinking there so your question can't really be answered.
darkoz
darkoz
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February 23rd, 2016 at 6:33:09 AM permalink
Giving you the benefit of the doubt since you say you are new to AP, what you have described is not AP. You also admit you are not the best counter so you are probably just experiencing a lucky streak. The mention of roulette wins in particular point to that.

I'm less cynical of people on here. I know what it's like to believe you know something well enough to make you inclusive of a group only to discover later with more homework that you were not even close.

I suggest doing some research on here and you will find what the other members consider AP plays and what actions an AP makes. Even there you will find some disagreement. There are a few people here who don't even believe AP's exist (although for those of us in the know, we get a small kick out of hearing this - helps us with our cover - wink, wink, nod, nod).

Anyway, welcome to the forum.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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February 23rd, 2016 at 7:09:20 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

None of this sounds like Advantage Play to me...



not even this?!??

Quote: Greg216

Also included a nice 350 hit on roulette on my wife's number

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Greg216
Greg216
Joined: Feb 22, 2016
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February 23rd, 2016 at 7:39:49 AM permalink
Sorry , got carried away with other info and a sort of trip review .

My basic question /idea is : It is far more likely to come out on top betting big for a Few hands than hoping to grind out 15-20 hand positive run for a shoe.


I did count while in Vegas (and generally pay more attention to the status of the shoe) and would dial it back when it was negative and up my bets when I knew I had the Advantage . I don't have the free time to get as well versed and proficient as some of the amazing minds on this board .
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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February 23rd, 2016 at 8:24:18 AM permalink
Quote: Greg216

...My basic question /idea is : It is far more likely to come out on top betting big for a Few hands than hoping to grind out 15-20 hand positive run for a shoe...

Hey Greg, and welcome to the forums. I have the answer for you:

No. You are not more likely to come out on top by betting big for a few hands, and I'll explain why and then show you the math as to why to back it up. Basically, blackjack has a built in house edge. This house edge is something that will be realized over "the long run." So every time you go in to a casino, on any 1 individual night, you could win, or you could lose... but what I'm telling you is with mathematical certainty after X hours (the long run, usually about 1,000 hours) you WILL lose. This is how casinos in the desert were built. This is why they offer the "games." ...because you can't, and won't beat them in the long run.

Anything that's in the short span of a night, weekend, month, etc, is considered the short term and also referred to as "variance." Variance is the natural swings the game could take in the short run. Another way to think of variance is "luck." In mathematics, when you have a small sampling size of something, well it's not a very good representation of the actual data because you could have outliers that skew the data. Variance in blackjack works the same. You could win $5,000 tonight, which in the span of this month makes it look like you have a winning game... BUT moving towards the long run, and the much larger sampling size, your outlier will be but a blip on the radar to the harsh mathematical reality that is your Expected Value... which is derived from your average bet, the number of hands you play, and the house edge of the game.

Perhaps it will be easier to view this with the math now.... On any 1 given night, here's how you could calculate your Expected Value (EV):

EV = (AvgBet * NumHands)*HouseEdge

So how about a quick example? Let's say you simply FLAT BET the whole night at $25. Let's say you play for 4 hours, getting 75 hands per hour, for a total of 300 hands for the night. Let's also say you're playing an "average" quarter game with a .4% house edge (this is easily derived based on the rules of the game and things like the Wizards House Edge Calculator - http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/ ).

EV = (25 * 300)*(-.004) = (7500) * (-.004) = -30.

So if you played 4 hours for a night and only flat bet $25, you could, in the LONG RUN, expect to lose $30 for this session. This means when you've played 1,000 hours, on AVERAGE, you can expect to lose $30 per 4 hour session, or essentially you're expecting to lose $7.50/hour.

So now let's look at it how you want to do it... Let's say 90% of the time you bet $25, and then the last 10% of the time (at the end of the shoe) you bet $200. What does that do for our EV? Well, that makes your average bet $42.50, but let's say $50 for simple numbers (maybe you bet bigger a couple more times =P). Now...

EV = (AvgBet * NumHands) * HouseEdge = (50 * 300) * (-.004) = 15,000 * (-.004) = -60

So what's happened? You've effectively DOUBLED your expected losings! But why?? Well, I hope you can see the one important factor in the equation... The House Edge! You haven't changed it... You're still playing with the same negative house edge so by betting more, all you're really doing is LOSING more. I hope this shows you that no betting scheme, positive/negative progressions, martingale, etc will work. NONE of them will work because they don't change the house edge!

So how do you actually gain an advantage? Well you must change the house edge! Welcome to card counting =). Card counting keeps track of the cards removed because when little cards are removed it's better for the player. This small cards leaving "slowly but surely" change the house edge. A card counter tracks this ever changing house edge and waits for it to be in his favor, THEN bets bigger. So let's say a card counter waits for a really good count which will yield him a 1% favorite, now let's look at his EV if he always bets $200 when he's this 1% favorite. Let's say this only happens a fraction of the time, so he plays like 50 hands with this 1% advantage...

EV = (200 * 50) * (.01) = 10,000 * .01 = +100

Now we're talking! Betting $200 when we have a 1% ADVANTAGE will, in the long run, win us $100! (over those 50 hands)

There's a lot more to it than that, and I'd suggest reading my 3 A to Z articles if you're wanting to learn more on the topic... but this should be enough to show you why just betting more "at the end" actually LOSES you MORE money (because you're not changing the house edge)!

Here are the articles if you're interested:
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Greg216
Greg216
Joined: Feb 22, 2016
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February 23rd, 2016 at 8:47:39 AM permalink
See! That is the info I am used to seeing . How about my "end " is when I get the advantage and I play my few big hands , get up and color up ?

I didn't mean "just wait until the end of the shoe". I meant the end of my play. When I had the advantage I would push 100 or 200 (if I had that profit ) and get up, then quit with my winnings . It happened 5 different times on my trip , one or two were actually early in the shoe and obviously involved "luck " .

But for us guys that are not going to log HOURS at the tables and only looking for a quick double up or small profit it seems to work . I usually play 200-300 bankroll and will quit with 150+ . I KNOW IT IS NOT SCIENTIFIC or the way a full or parttime BJ PLAYER plays , but maybe it is better than 80% of players who have no clue what they are doing ?
Greg216
Greg216
Joined: Feb 22, 2016
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February 23rd, 2016 at 8:50:36 AM permalink
Btw, a couple of my "biggest losses" we're giving back a ton of winnings I was up and being too aggressive because I had a profit I was hoping to make HUGE . Did lose my discipline and "chase" a few times and it bit me
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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February 23rd, 2016 at 9:01:09 AM permalink
Quote: Greg216

See! That is the info I am used to seeing . How about my "end " is when I get the advantage and I play my few big hands , get up and color up ?

I didn't mean "just wait until the end of the shoe". I meant the end of my play. When I had the advantage I would push 100 or 200 (if I had that profit ) and get up, then quit with my winnings...

So are you card counting to track the house edge and know you have an advantage? If you're just keeping track of winning and losing hands then you're not card counting and your'e not tracking the house edge, thus you have no advantage and I'll revert back to how betting more, without an advantage, only leads to losing more.

Quote: Greg216

But for us guys that are not going to log HOURS at the tables and only looking for a quick double up or small profit it seems to work . I usually play 200-300 bankroll and will quit with 150+ . I KNOW IT IS NOT SCIENTIFIC or the way a full or parttime BJ PLAYER plays , but maybe it is better than 80% of players who have no clue what they are doing ?

Unfortunately no, you're going to do worse than the flat bet player. By betting more, in the short term, you're going to introduce more variance. This means a flat bet player may NEVER be able to win $3,000 in a night just flat betting $25... where as if you randomly bet $300 or so you might be able to have a really lucky night and win that. However, the flat bet player will NEVER lose $3,000 in one night, and if you have a really unlucky night, you can lose that. So you're just widening your range of possibilities, but it's to both good and bad... and by betting more with a disadvantage you WILL lose more in the long run than the guy who just flat bets and plays basic strategy.

The game becomes less fun when you realize the harsh truth that you can't beat it by any kind of betting/playing scheme outside of card counting and other very advanced AP techniques. But to answer your latest question officially: You will do worse than someone simply flat betting the table minimum.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

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