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Flippyfish
Flippyfish
Joined: Jul 19, 2015
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September 13th, 2015 at 3:09:23 AM permalink
I just lost $8500 in 2 hours of play. My max bet is 2 hands of $300 ($600 total). That's a loss of about 15 max bet loss in 2 hours. Does this seem abnormal to anyone? Has anybody had worse losing streaks than this in such a short amount of time?
Thanks for the input
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
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September 13th, 2015 at 5:22:43 AM permalink
Quote: Flippyfish

I just lost $8500 in 2 hours of play. My max bet is 2 hands of $300 ($600 total). That's a loss of about 15 max bet loss in 2 hours. Does this seem abnormal to anyone? Has anybody had worse losing streaks than this in such a short amount of time?
Thanks for the input



No and yes. You are not alone. It happens more often than you may think and I have had worse.

If your game is solid and nothing such as rules etc has changed, put it behind you and soldier on. It's just part of the game.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Greasyjohn
Greasyjohn
Joined: Dec 8, 2013
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September 13th, 2015 at 9:48:42 AM permalink
I just lost $1,200 in 20 minutes playing $150 a hand. That's would be $7,200 over 2 hours. It was at an Indian casino where I wonged in.

For every $600 big bet that you lost you would have $1,200 if you had won. You'd win $600 on the bet, and not lose your $600 wager. So if 7 $600 had won instead of lost you have $8,400-- you'd be about even.

I'm going back to this Indian casino. 6D, LS, DAS, DA2, $10 min, 78%Pen.
Actuarial
Actuarial
Joined: Apr 23, 2014
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September 13th, 2015 at 9:52:13 AM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

I just lost $1,200 in 20 minutes playing $150 a hand. That's would be $7,200 over 2 hours. It was at an Indian casino where I wonged in.



That's not really the same thing. That's like saying I lost $100 in 15 seconds, so that's the same as me losing $48,000 in 2 hours.
Donuts
Donuts
Joined: Oct 17, 2014
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September 14th, 2015 at 5:18:11 AM permalink
Quote: Flippyfish

I just lost $8500 in 2 hours of play. My max bet is 2 hands of $300 ($600 total). That's a loss of about 15 max bet loss in 2 hours. Does this seem abnormal to anyone? Has anybody had worse losing streaks than this in such a short amount of time?
Thanks for the input



My play partner lost 11k in 3-4 hours with a 25 to 2x250 spread.

He won 13k in around 50 hours prior to this with a slightly lesser spread.

These streaks aren't unreasonable at all. A lot of the pros suffer 1000 unit downswings, multi month losing streaks, even entire years of negative variance.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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September 14th, 2015 at 6:50:47 AM permalink
Short term is quite difficult to tell if 'something's up' or not. While a horrible streak, your streak does not seem entirely unreasonable. It really depends on your situations. If you have a few great shoes where your max bet is out for decks and decks, then it's quite possible to get some doubles/splits/etc and lose 10 max bets in a a shoe... or in your case that would be $6k in about 20 min.

The only real way to tell how your play is doing is to track your statistics (hands played per session, EV of the session given the game rules/etc, spread used, etc). This way you can find your overall EV and you can find your overall Standard Deviations. After 10k hands or so you should start moving towards your EV. If you're 1SD out, it's plausible, if you're 4SD out by then, then either the game is rigged or you are not playing correctly. Knowing your numbers will tell you all you need to know.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
BedWetterBetter
BedWetterBetter
Joined: Oct 20, 2012
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September 14th, 2015 at 8:25:23 AM permalink
I recently saw a guy at Cesars AC drop $21,000 in about 20 mins. I was playing $25-$75 per hand at first base and hanging in for the most part. Ended up cashing out $225 ahead and just couldn't stand the sight of this guy throwing a tantrum when he lost.

Table Max was $1500 and he just kept ploppling 15 crisp $100 bills each bet and lost about 12 in a row with some brutal doubles.

Hope they at least comped him enough for a microwaved Sausage, Egg n Cheese sandwich upstairs!
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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September 14th, 2015 at 8:45:19 AM permalink
My worst single day of my 12 year career occurred earlier this year when I lost 19K. That's nearly 50 max bets of $400. It occurred over 3 different sessions at 3 different casinos. It also included replenishing my stakes after losing my daily stakes or bankroll, which is something I rarely do. But I lost my initial daily stakes of 11 grand so quickly in about 30 minutes, that I made an exception, replenished and continued to play and lose.

It isn't pleasant, but it can happen. Usually the way it occurs is the count skyrockets early in a shoe and stays there, meaning you are placing max wager after max wager, but the big cards never emerge. They stay behind the cut card. :(

If you have one of those streaks where you seem to lose almost every hand, many because the dealer doesn't break, making all his break hands with multi-card hands and you throw in a couple of those hands where you split 3 times with a couple double downs, the loss grows quickly.

On a new shoe or session after (or during) such a streak, it is very common to want to get large bets out earlier than normal and win back that money, so it is VERY important not to be rattled by such a streak and be disciplined and not give in to temptation of chasing losses. This is human nature.

It is very difficult to go back to placing your minimum wager and waiting after having lost dozens of max bets. For this reason, even as a fairly experienced player who plays nearly every day, I take a break for at least the rest of the day to regroup. The tables will be there tomorrow or the day after. :)
Just say no to 6:5 Blackjack, Continuous shuffle machines and Blackjack the Forum. All are Negative expected value.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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September 14th, 2015 at 8:53:12 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

...On a new shoe or session after (or during) such a streak, it is very common to want to get large bets out earlier than normal and win back that money, so it is VERY important not to be rattled by such a streak and be disciplined and not give in to temptation of chasing losses. This is human nature.

It is very difficult to go back to placing your minimum wager and waiting after having lost dozens of max bets. For this reason, even as a fairly experienced player who plays nearly every day, I take a break for at least the rest of the day to regroup. The tables will be there tomorrow or the day after. :)


I think we're all (at one point) a bit guilty of this... This is truly professional advice. You have to be a machine and try to not let the emotions of the game get to you. Easier said than done, but clearly some are capable =P.

Side question on this topic kewlj, have you ever caught yourself betting more aggressively/etc as mentioned above? Perhaps earlier in your career? Just curious... I've got to imagine even the pro's are quite capable of getting flustered (as I sure am), but do they ever let it accidentally spill in to their game?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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September 14th, 2015 at 9:12:38 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Side question on this topic kewlj, have you ever caught yourself betting more aggressively/etc as mentioned above? Perhaps earlier in your career? Just curious... I've got to imagine even the pro's are quite capable of getting flustered (as I sure am), but do they ever let it accidentally spill in to their game?



Nothing major immediately comes to mind, but I am sure such incidents did occur, especially earlier in my career. I really have taught myself to be quite disciplined over the years as I have seen so much, so many swings in each direction, that I know things will eventually go the other way.

This may seem contradictory to the disciplinary approach, but I do allow for more aggressive betting during winning periods. It's a very rare thing I call "the super max bet", which is 150% of max bet. The requirements are that the TC be pretty far above my usual max bet number of TC +4. Maybe TC +8 or so. It is also important that I be winning, so as to be 100% sure, I have enough funds on hand to not run out should I start to lose every round. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING WORSE than being forced to walk from a table in the midst of a monster true count.

Even if the requirements have been met, I have to feel like going to this super max bet isn't going to 'jeopardize' a location in my regular rotation, which is where most of my play takes place. So it is REALLY very rare for me to go to 'supermax bet'. I have only done so about 4 times and none in last couple years.

I mean really, if I felt that amount was well tolerated, that would be my max bet. There is a reason, I am playing a lower max bet and that is because THAT is the amount I have determined is well tolerated for that store and circumstances (day of week, time of day ect).
Just say no to 6:5 Blackjack, Continuous shuffle machines and Blackjack the Forum. All are Negative expected value.

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