Experienced APs/Counters: What do you think of KO blackjack in a good SD game?

Hey guys,

I'm referring here to KO Blackjack, and specifically the alterations that Daniel Dravot has come up with, to account for the TC. Same system, just betting more early (if the count warrants it) and less later in the deck. Honestly, in a SD game, it doesn't matter all that much.

I know the system well and utilize all the index plays. Overall, I've had pretty good success with 6D, less for DD, and the worst success with SD.

Why do I ask? Well, I have a chance to play a good single deck game on Sunday:

CONDITIONS:
Single deck
3-2 on BJ (otherwise I wouldn't be writing about it)
Dealer hits soft 17
Double any first two cards
Late Surrender
Six-card Charlie
Player may re-split to four hands (except aces)
No double after split
Dealer shuffles based on feel, normally at 60%
$5-$100 limits

I played this game last month with a $10-50 spread and got slaughtered, losing $550 in about two hours. Shitty cards throughout.

Is playing more tight, with say a 1:3 spread just asking for trouble, in terms of being slowly ground into dust as the counter?

It's the best single deck conditions I've seen. I want to return and give it another go.

APs and Counters: if you adjust your spread and make it more conservative, how do you guys then account adjust how your betting strategy?

Normal KO Blackjack (Vancura/Fuchs), with SD, you start with an initial count "0," and the unit bets look like this:

Count: Unit bet

0 > 1 unit

1 > 1 unit

2 > 2 units

3 > 4 units

4 or more > 5 units

I'm wondering how you guys would change this if you wanted to play 1:3.

Any insight would be appreciated!

Should also mention that at a $10:$50 spread, sitting there for hours with just me and the dealer, I got zero (and I mean zero) heat.

Dealer was even talking to me about card-counting and how it works. LOL.

To be honest 1 to 3 to me is a waste of time, for what you asking however, the answer depends on your bankroll size. If its large enough I would just bet 3 units on TC>=2, and 1 otherwise. This will increase variance though.

EDIT: If you are spreading 1 to 5 and getting no heat why drop to 1:3? If you struggle with the swings unfortunately the answer is to get more bankroll, not drop your spread.

You want a fixed number of rounds in single deck. If they're shuffling by feel , you're getting preferentially shuffled on unintentionally. To get to that same spot there will be more rounds in negative decks and fewer In positive decks. You would have an edge at 1-3 but you're kinda setting yourself up for mediocrity.

As far as getting crushed last time, card counting is volatile, especially single deck. Either have to get used to it and accept it or counting isn't for you.

Thanks for this insight guys.

The bitch of it is that I've simulated the same game at home and been way more conservative with the penetration and find myself up almost all the time.

I am very confident that my count is accurate in real-game conditions, but no simulation can prepare you for pushing again and again at 20, getting 19 to the dealer's 20, 18 to his 19, and so on.

You are right. It is volatile. That much I have learned!