hpntq
hpntq
Joined: Jun 9, 2015
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June 17th, 2015 at 2:31:17 PM permalink
Newbie here,

I wanted to see what your guys thoughts are in regards to making money on blackjack. My target goal was to make $200 per session, not sure if this is likely considering my BR is 1k, and the tables in detroit are @ a $15 min. The last time I went, I couldnt tell if they were using 4-6-8 deck games. If we factor in basic strat and counting (omega 2), would it be likely to rake in $100-200/sessions with a 1k BR, + BS and card counting @ a 6-8 deck game? I am assuming most will say no (I too am very skeptical).

Best!
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
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June 17th, 2015 at 2:40:05 PM permalink
Quote: hpntq

Newbie here,

I wanted to see what your guys thoughts are in regards to making money on blackjack. My target goal was to make $200 per session, not sure if this is likely considering my BR is 1k, and the tables in detroit are @ a $15 min. The last time I went, I couldnt tell if they were using 4-6-8 deck games. If we factor in basic strat and counting (omega 2), would it be likely to rake in $100-200/sessions with a 1k BR, + BS and card counting @ a 6-8 deck game? I am assuming most will say no (I too am very skeptical).

Best!



Welcome fellow blackjack player! I'm going to give it to you straight because I assume that's the way you want it. It's all about the bankroll and you are seriously underfunded.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
hpntq
hpntq
Joined: Jun 9, 2015
  • Threads: 2
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June 17th, 2015 at 2:47:29 PM permalink
What up BB! thanks for the welcome! and straight up answers are the best, much appreciated. As for the bank roll, 2 follow up questions. 1) would a funded roll be 4-5k? I know its still low as opposed to some people starting with 10k and up. 2) with a 4-5k BR or a 10k + BR are you also insisting that this money should be money I am OK to lose with?
surrender88s
surrender88s
Joined: Jun 23, 2013
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June 17th, 2015 at 2:59:30 PM permalink
http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/

Per the "Probability of Loss" table on this link,

If you play 100 hands, you are likely to lose 15 units 10% of the time when playing basic strategy with a minimum bet and a 0.4% house edge. That's a loss of $225 or more, 10% of the time.

Believe it or not, if you use a great counting method, and play perfectly, and get to something like a 1.5% player advantage, you will actually lose MORE than this, MORE than 10% of the time. This is because instead of betting 15 a hand, you will be betting much more at high counts.

Just one way to look at your question.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
Bl4ckJ4ck
Bl4ckJ4ck
Joined: Jun 14, 2015
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June 17th, 2015 at 3:18:43 PM permalink
Quote: hpntq

Newbie here,

I wanted to see what your guys thoughts are in regards to making money on blackjack. My target goal was to make $200 per session, not sure if this is likely considering my BR is 1k, and the tables in detroit are @ a $15 min. The last time I went, I couldnt tell if they were using 4-6-8 deck games. If we factor in basic strat and counting (omega 2), would it be likely to rake in $100-200/sessions with a 1k BR, + BS and card counting @ a 6-8 deck game? I am assuming most will say no (I too am very skeptical).

Best!



The good news is that you can easily win $100-200 in a session at a $15 min table -- this is only 7-13 units per session. Depending on the spread you could make this in one or two hands.

The bad news is that you could also lose your $1000 BR in one or two sessions at a $15 min table since your BR is only around 67 units!

The standard deviation per 100 hands (SD/100) for most games is usually somewhere between 20-30 units. For larger spreads, which you'll need to beat shoe games, this is typically over 30 units. About 34.1% of the time you will lose between 0 and 1 standard deviation, and about 13.6% of the time you will lose between 1 and 2 standard deviations. (Replace "lose" with "win" if you're an optimist.)

From these observations it's clear that you could easily lose your entire BR in one trip.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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June 17th, 2015 at 3:27:14 PM permalink
MGM is all 6 decks shoes. MC & GT are 8 except in high limit where they are 6. GT is mostly CSM and MC is a mix of both. All are H17 except high limit which is S17.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
  • Threads: 18
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June 17th, 2015 at 3:31:40 PM permalink
Quote: hpntq

What up BB! thanks for the welcome! and straight up answers are the best, much appreciated. As for the bank roll, 2 follow up questions. 1) would a funded roll be 4-5k? I know its still low as opposed to some people starting with 10k and up. 2) with a 4-5k BR or a 10k + BR are you also insisting that this money should be money I am OK to lose with?



The old bankroll standard was always 100 max bets. Assuming a 1-16 betting spread your max bet would be $240. Your bankroll would be $24k. That was before the ability to do simulations. I still would not be uncomfortable adhering to that standard but it's no longer one size fits all. Sims can now be run that are tailored to your exact game inputting every bit of information including rules, betting spread, number of people at the table, count used, wonging and the color of your socks. Okay maybe not that last one.

How much money you are okay losing is an individual thing and everyone has their own threshold. Losing is not an option for me so I am not okay losing anything at the blackjack table. I am often disappointed. :-)
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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June 17th, 2015 at 3:40:56 PM permalink
1BB hit on the way underfunded bankroll part. But that is only part of the bad news.

This idea of making $200 per session......that's really not how blackjack works. You might be able to earn $200 in EV (expected value) per session, with a bigger bankroll. But the reality is that you might go many sessions, many days, many weeks, even months, playing a 'winning' game but not winning a dime. Then all of the sudden, it turns and you start winning buckets full. That's variance and that is a huge part of this game.

I get the feeling you would like card counting to be like a job, where you can depend on a set amount every session, day or week, and it really doesn't work like that.
Just say no to 6:5 Blackjack, Continuous shuffle machines and Blackjack the Forum. All are Negative expected value.
hpntq
hpntq
Joined: Jun 9, 2015
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 6
June 17th, 2015 at 3:50:03 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

1BB hit on the way underfunded bankroll part. But that is only part of the bad news.

This idea of making $200 per session......that's really not how blackjack works. You might be able to earn $200 in EV (expected value) per session, with a bigger bankroll. But the reality is that you might go many sessions, many days, many weeks, even months, playing a 'winning' game but not winning a dime. Then all of the sudden, it turns and you start winning buckets full. That's variance and that is a huge part of this game.

I get the feeling you would like card counting to be like a job, where you can depend on a set amount every session, day or week, and it really doesn't work like that.



I the latter part of your post is what I have been "trying" to convince myself, but the more I read, the more I realize that its total unlikely to make $200/s and swap it for my part time work. I wanted it to replace my part time job! :P

Quote: 1BB


How much money you are okay losing is an individual thing and everyone has their own threshold. Losing is not an option for me so I am not okay losing anything at the blackjack table. I am often disappointed. :-)



Losing kills my soul haha
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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June 17th, 2015 at 4:00:22 PM permalink
Quote: hpntq

I the latter part of your post is what I have been "trying" to convince myself, but the more I read, the more I realize that its total unlikely to make $200/s and swap it for my part time work. I wanted it to replace my part time job! :P



The only way playing BJ part-time could replace a part-time job, is if you don't 'need' the income from that part-time job for regular living expenses. If your living expenses comes from somewhere else, like your primary job, and you are working a part-time job and using that money to save for some longer term project or expense, then card counting could work, if you really learn to do it correctly.
Just say no to 6:5 Blackjack, Continuous shuffle machines and Blackjack the Forum. All are Negative expected value.

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