jlechuga928
jlechuga928
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Joined: Jan 21, 2015
May 18th, 2015 at 2:06:12 PM permalink
How do I figure out probability on certain things?

for example how would I figure out the probability on the Perfect Pair side bet for a 5 deck game?
> Perfect Pair
> Coloured Pair
> Mixed Pair

can anyone help me out with this? or show me the way to get the answers.
thank you
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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May 18th, 2015 at 2:17:33 PM permalink
There are 260 cards in the shoe.
Let's say your first card is the Ace of Spades.
Of the 259 cards remaining in the shoe, each of which is equally as likely to be your second card, how many...
(a) are also the Ace of Spades (Perfect Pair);
(b) are the Ace of Clubs (Coloured Pair);
(c) are the Ace of Hearts or the Ace of Diamonds (Mixed Pair)?
OnceDear
OnceDear
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Joined: Jun 1, 2014
May 18th, 2015 at 3:14:35 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

There are 260 cards in the shoe.
Let's say your first card is the Ace of Spades.
Of the 259 cards remaining in the shoe, each of which is equally as likely to be your second card, how many...
(a) are also the Ace of Spades (Perfect Pair);
(b) are the Ace of Clubs (Coloured Pair);
(c) are the Ace of Hearts or the Ace of Diamonds (Mixed Pair)?



Quite so.
For the OP...
The way to work out the probability of any event is to start with two numbers: How many equally probable ways could it happen (A), and how many equally probable ways could it not happen (B). Then probability = A/(A+B)

Example with a full 6 deck shoe, ignoring cards dealt to dealer, if the first card out is Ace of spades, there are 5 ways the next card could be Ace of spades and 306 ways that it won't be so probability of perfect pair of aces of spades at that point is 5/311.

Similar principles in calculating mixed pair or coloured pair, or anything else.

It gets more complex when an arbitrary number of cards are already out of play.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
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