Blackjack game with 0.75% player advantage
In doing a review of Soft Magic Dice I came upon a blackjack game with the following rules:
- Single deck.
- Blackjack pays 3-2.
- No dealer hole card.
- Dealer stands on soft 17.
- EARLY SURRENDER against 10 and ace.
- Player may double on 9 to 11.
- Player may double on three or more cards.
- Double after split allowed.
- Player may not re-split.
These rules can be found on the Classic and Surrender versions of blackjack.
I haven't seen rules this good ... ever. The old Unified Gaming software of the late 90's had similar rules except didn't allow doubling on three or more cards.
Assuming total-dependent basic strategy, the player advantage is 0.71%. You can bump it up to 0.75% with composition-dependent strategy.
Here is the basic strategy:
The maximum bet under these rules is $20. If that is too low, the Royal Blackjack table has a max bet of $200 and a player advantage of 0.60%.
There is also a 444% sticky bonus for new players.
This casino and software are both new so haven't earned Wizard approved status yet. Neither do we have anything bad on them. If you're interested in playing please click through this link and you will enjoy Wizard player protection.
If any of you play, please let me know how you did. Personally I deposited $200, which was matched with $888, and I eventually lost it all. I'm currently working through my second deposit of $300 and am up a little bit.
Update: Since writing this post I have added Mission2Game to my online casino blacklist. So play at your own risk. The "Wizard Guarantee" no longer applies to this casino.
I am not looking for a reason not to play, I just am looking at the too good to be true angle. As always, Thanks for your information.
Edit: Very small amount of data, but giving it a little test thus far I think I've won 10 out of 100 hands =P. Oh boy, variance, or...
Quote: BozSo how does any casino offer a game like this?
I think it is ignorance of the rules. They probably just didn't know that mixing the European no hole card and surrender is very powerful in the player's favor. Also, allowing doubling on three or more cards tell me that they just didn't know the rule is normally for two cards only.
My advice is hit it while you can.
Quote: WizardI think it is ignorance of the rules. They probably just didn't know that mixing the European no hole card and surrender is very powerful in the player's favor. Also, allowing doubling on three or more cards tell me that they just didn't know the rule is normally for two cards only.
My advice is hit it while you can.
Down $500 (of my bonus) in about 45 minutes... betting $20/hand. I'm trying =/. Does it explicitly state somewhere that it IS in fact single deck?
EDIT: I also noticed the "Gamble" feature when you win. It takes you to another screen where you have your original bet + winnings and you can bet on the color of the card (at a 2-1 payout) or the suit (at a 4-1 payout). Wouldn't the color be 50-50? Thus, either they ensure you don't win 50% of the time, or this 2-1 "gamble" is hugely profitable?
Quote: RomesDown $500 (of my bonus) in about 45 minutes... betting $20/hand. I'm trying =/. Does it explicitly state somewhere that it IS in fact single deck?
EDIT: I also noticed the "Gamble" feature when you win. It takes you to another screen where you have your original bet + winnings and you can bet on the color of the card (at a 2-1 payout) or the suit (at a 4-1 payout). Wouldn't the color be 50-50? Thus, either they ensure you don't win 50% of the time, or this 2-1 "gamble" is hugely profitable?
Unless the game is rigged...
Quote: bobsimsUnless the game is rigged...
As I mentioned: "either they ensure you don't win 50% of the time, or..." Also, with this "double up" feature, you can keep doing it. So you could bet $1 on the BJ hand, which you have a .71% advantage on, then you could parlay your $2 winnings as many times as you want, getting 2-1 on an even money bet...?
It's just like anything else in casino's where they make a mistake.Quote: BozSo how does any casino offer a game like this? I am asking this question with all honestly trying to see what I am missing. Options I am coming up include inexperienced operators who didn't do the math, arrogant owners who feel most people wont play correctly and they will overcome the positive edge and still make money, crooked owners who wont pay out it they take a large hit, or any combination of all of these.
I am not looking for a reason not to play, I just am looking at the too good to be true angle. As always, Thanks for your information.
There have been online casino's that have made mistakes and the casino got crushed and paied everyone.
I don't know anything about this patiparticular Casino. The last really good VP The Wizard posted about was gone very soon after it was posted.
Quote: RomesDown $500 (of my bonus) in about 45 minutes... betting $20/hand. I'm trying =/. Does it explicitly state somewhere that it IS in fact single deck?
That's 25 units. Ouch! I've checked and never seen the same card twice in the same hand.
Quote: RomesFinally won 1 double up (1 out of 15, on a 50% 'gamble)... It pays 1-1 even though it says it pays 2-1. False advertising.
This is why regulation and trust is important. Playing at an unregulated online casino is the equivalent of sending money to a stranger on the Internet who says "I'm going to Vegas, give me $100 and I'll put it on roulette for you."
A week later you email back. "Did I win?"
"No, but I won $100!"
Quote: AxelWolf...I don't know anything about this patiparticular Casino. The last really good VP The Wizard posted about was gone very soon after it was posted.
I don't think this will go anywhere... There's a LOT of skeevy stuff going on:
1) Down $800 in blackjack averaging a $15 bet in 40 minutes. I lost 5 hands to every 1 hand I'd win.
2) False advertising. They offer a "gamble" feature which you take your winnings and can guess the color of a random card at a 2-1 payoff (and it clearly states Pays 2-1)... but it only pays 1-1.
3) I lost 14 "coin flips" in a row guessing the color of a random card. The odds of this are .5^14 = .000061
Also, for any interested. You must wager 33x your initial deposit + bonus to cash out. For example, they have a 777% deposit bonus (which is immediately ready for table use upon deposit). So if you deposit $200 you can get the MAX $1554 for a total of $1754. To then cash anything out you need to run through $57,882 worth of action. Actually sounds bigger than it is. In 1 hour I guess I've played about 500 hands, with an average bet of $15 would put me at $7,500. So about 13% of the wagering requirement. The only problem is I have my doubts on whether or not I'll make it another 7-8 hours of play =p.
Suspiciously, the tab in the software where you can "withdrawal" is blank.
Gonna need that Wizard protection, methinks.
Quote: teddysI deposited $200 and claimed the 444% match bonus. (How did I miss the 777% bonus?) So far I am up to about $1500 playing $20 a hand flat betting. I'm not doing the double up.
Suspiciously, the tab in the software where you can "withdrawal" is blank.
Gonna need that Wizard protection, methinks.
Nothing shows up in the withdraw section because you're not eligible. You have to wager 33x your deposit + bonus. So in your case you deposited $200, and got $888 as a bonus. Thus, your total amount (real money account + bonus account) was $1,088. You need to put about $34,000 worth of action through until you can cash out. You can check the amount of play you've put through by going to the cashier, then promotions, then click on the "Active" promotion (in your case the 444% promotion).
Good to hear "someone's" up... I'm down my entire bonus ($1500) in about 1.5 hours of play with an average bet of $10 (bet re sizing with the bankroll). I only did the "double up" 15 times when I learned that a) it's clearly rigged (betting any amount of $20 or more), and b) it only pays 1-1 instead of the advertised 2-1.
Quick Math
Average bet: $10.
Standard Deviation in Blackjack: 1.1
SD for 1 hand: 10*1.1 = 11
I'm confused on how it says I've only put ~$2,000 worth of action through, but assuming that's true then I've played approximately 181 hands, which seems wayyyy short considering I've been clicking rather fast over my 1.5 hours of play. Even so, that means my SD for 181 hands = Sqrt(181)*11 = 148.32.
EV = (NumOfEvents)(AvgBet)(advantage) = (181)(10)(.0075) = $13.58.
SD = +- $148.32.
...Yet I'm down $1,500. This is like 10 Standard Deviations out of the norm. Allowing that I did the double up and lost some winnings (15 times, half of which was $2 half of which was $40) I should have another ~$200. So let's pretend I'm only down $1,300... That's still 8 Standard Deviations out. I.E. Impossible??? Wizard, could you confirm my math?
You're up 75 units from play or is that amount the total including the bonus amount?Quote: teddysI deposited $200 and claimed the 444% match bonus. (How did I miss the 777% bonus?) So far I am up to about $1500 playing $20 a hand flat betting. I'm not doing the double up.
Suspiciously, the tab in the software where you can "withdrawal" is blank.
Gonna need that Wizard protection, methinks.
You're up 75 units from play or is that amount the total including the bonus amount?Quote: teddysI deposited $200 and claimed the 444% match bonus. (How did I miss the 777% bonus?) So far I am up to about $1500 playing $20 a hand flat betting. I'm not doing the double up.
Suspiciously, the tab in the software where you can "withdrawal" is blank.
Gonna need that Wizard protection, methinks.
Quote: AxelWolfYou're up 75 units from play or is that amount the total including the bonus amount?
His total with his 444% bonus was $1,088... so he's up about $400 after the deposit/bonuses.
Even if its gaffed they have a reason to change it.Quote: RomesI don't think this will go anywhere... There's a LOT of skeevy stuff going on:
1) Down $800 in blackjack averaging a $15 bet in 40 minutes. I lost 5 hands to every 1 hand I'd win.
2) False advertising. They offer a "gamble" feature which you take your winnings and can guess the color of a random card at a 2-1 payoff (and it clearly states Pays 2-1)... but it only pays 1-1.
3) I lost 14 "coin flips" in a row guessing the color of a random card. The odds of this are .5^14 = .000061
Also, for any interested. You must wager 33x your initial deposit + bonus to cash out. For example, they have a 777% deposit bonus (which is immediately ready for table use upon deposit). So if you deposit $200 you can get the MAX $1554 for a total of $1754. To then cash anything out you need to run through $57,882 worth of action. Actually sounds bigger than it is. In 1 hour I guess I've played about 500 hands, with an average bet of $15 would put me at $7,500. So about 13% of the wagering requirement. The only problem is I have my doubts on whether or not I'll make it another 7-8 hours of play =p.
We dont know how they gaff online casinos. Certain rules may be set to return 3% less than what it actually should to cover bonuses.. They may want everything to hold 7%, if pros start playing they wont get 7%. they may only get 2% and lose because of bonuses and affiliate fees.
They may not want pros playing a game that should be positive because eventually the longer pros play the better chances they have to figure out if its gaffed.
If they change the rules now, all the pros will stop playing and now they can simply claim we ran bad.
Quote: AxelWolfEven if its gaffed they have a reason to change it.
We dont know how they gaff online casinos. Certain rules may be set to return 3% less than what it actually should to cover bonuses.. They may want everything to hold 7%, if pros start playing they wont get 7%. they may only get 2% and lose because of bonuses and affiliate fees.
They may not want pros playing a game that should be positive because eventually the longer pros play the better chances they have to figure out if its gaffed.
If they change the rules now, all the pros will stop playing and now they can simply claim we ran bad.
I'm 8+ Standard Deviations out of my expectation... Even with a small sampling size... that's fairly evident I'm not "running bad."
Quote: RomesI'm 8+ Standard Deviations out of my expectation... Even with a small sampling size... that's fairly evident I'm not "running bad."
You're now up 8 standard deviations? Or you're down 8 std deviations?
Quote: AvincowYou're now up 8 standard deviations? Or you're down 8 std deviations?
He is on the negative side.
I won't be impressed until you lose 31 in a row.Quote: RomesI'm 8+ Standard Deviations out of my expectation... Even with a small sampling size... that's fairly evident I'm not "running bad."
I dont know if this casino is gaffed or not. I have done very well online over all, so I have nothing to complain about. I have played many "TO GOOD TO BE TRUE" situations, and im glad I did. I have also passed on some, and glad I did. I passed on some and it was probably a mistake.
It's all about risk VS reward.
I try to get an edge that's good enough to take a risk, even if there's a possibility its gaffed or I won't get paid.
If you like BJ advantages and have the extra money, I say give it a try , just add it to you're entertainment value section.
If you are low bankrolled and play this, don't go crying its gaffed and get upset if you lose. Everyone knows the risks online. Some good, some bad.
Quote: AxelWolfI won't be impressed until you lose 31 in a row.
I dont know if this casino is gaffed or not. I have done very well online over all, so I have nothing to complain about. I have played many "TO GOOD TO BE TRUE" situations, and im glad I did. I have also passed on some, and glad I did. I passed on some and it was probably a mistake.
It's all about risk VS reward.
I try to get an edge that's good enough to take a risk, even if there's a possibility its gaffed or I won't get paid.
If you like BJ advantages and have the extra money, I say give it a try , just add it to you're entertainment value section.
If you are low bankrolled and play this, don't go crying its gaffed and get upset if you lose. Everyone knows the risks online. Some good, some bad.
Very well said. While I see how my posts could have come off I want to let everyone know I'm just sharing my experience for others to make whatever decisions they want. Depositing $200 for a $1754 bankroll is a pretty sweet deal. Though, don't look to cash out any time soon and it's up to you to decide if that's a good deal or not to play a .75% player advantage game. However, they can give you a million dollar bankroll and not care if it's fixed =P.
EDIT: That being said, I've almost accrued all the data I need to make a final decision. Played $1 hands for a few hours, seemed like some back and forth. The moment I changed to $20 hands, I won 2 out of 22 hands, with 9 surrenders. Maybe there's a sweet spot like $10 hands where you can try to run out the wagering requirements then cash out what's left of the bonus? lol a month or two of work for $500!
THAT ABSOLUTELY was NOT directed at you.Quote: RomesVery well said. While I see how my posts could have come off I want to let everyone know I'm just sharing my experience for others to make whatever decisions they want. Depositing $200 for a $1754 bankroll is a pretty sweet deal. Though, don't look to cash out any time soon and it's up to you to decide if that's a good deal or not to play a .75% player advantage game. However, they can give you a million dollar bankroll and not care if it's fixed =P.
EDIT: That being said, I've almost accrued all the data I need to make a final decision. Played $1 hands for a few hours, seemed like some back and forth. The moment I changed to $20 hands, I won 2 out of 22 hands, with 9 surrenders. Maybe there's a sweet spot like $10 hands where you can try to run out the wagering requirements then cash out what's left of the bonus? lol a month or two of work for $500!
I was thinking of someone with a very small BR playing losing and blaming The Wizard.
It's obvious you know what you're doing. PLEASE keep sharing!
It's better than a LV TR.
Seems like this isn't the one for most of us. But then they are not going to give away the best ones either.
IMO There's no GOOD reason an online casino doesn't have a hand history option.
Why wouldn't they?
Quote: AxelWolfIs there a hand history section?
IMO There's no GOOD reason an online casino doesn't have a hand history option.
Why wouldn't they?
There is no good reason an honest online casino doesn't have a hand history option.
Quote: AxelWolfIs there a hand history section?
IMO There's no GOOD reason an online casino doesn't have a hand history option.
Why wouldn't they?
I haven't really looked too deeply, but not that I noticed. However, I decided to check out the 9-6 JoB to see how it played and it seems "fair," but only after a few hundred hands. I'm actually up like $20 playing .50 level =p. The VP actually keeps stats for you though... Such as hands played, session time, and hands per hour. No stats on winning vs losing though ;). Although now that I notice there is a WIN SUMMARY tab that shows how your statistics are for your current session. Not all stats, but it shows 2 pair and above and how many times you've hit them and what % of your total hands they are.
Hmm, if JoB is actually fair and 99.56% I wonder if it would be worth betting the $5.00 level ($25/pull) and trying to run through the Wagering Requirements then?
I'm sure somebody will say it takes up extra data or something.Quote: jml24There is no good reason an honest online casino doesn't have a hand history option.
Quote: RomesNothing shows up in the withdraw section because you're not eligible. You have to wager 33x your deposit + bonus.
It's quite common in these online promos that Blackjack only counts 5% or 10% towards betting requirement
so playthrough might be 330 times (stake+bonus) or even more. Just checked, this ones a 20%er
This online casino certainly sounds gaffed to me.
There is also a significant chance that if, by some miracle, you come through the betting requirements with profit, they reserve the right ( in their terms) to say. sorry we are not paying you a bean.
Caveat emptor
That said, there are honest, regulated online casinos in Europe.
NOTE: I'm probably not going to be betting the $25/pull for now, so who knows, it could be like BJ and you auto lose at that level...
Example: I have 7h - Ad - Jd - 5c - 10d... it's trying to auto hold just the AJ instead of 3 to the royal...
I saw that. So does that mean that the play through requirement is 150x stake+bonus? I noticed it's taking a long damn time even at $20 bets. Of course at a player advantage you want to play more, but it is boring. Perhaps I will try the Wizard method of win huge or bust out. For what it's worth, I am about even ($1088) and have played through about $2800 of the $33000 play through.Quote: OnceDearIt's quite common in these online promos that Blackjack only counts 5% or 10% towards betting requirement
so playthrough might be 330 times (stake+bonus) or even more. Just checked, this ones a 20%er
This online casino certainly sounds gaffed to me..
Quote: teddysI saw that. So does that mean that the play through requirement is 150x stake+bonus? I noticed it's taking a long damn time even at $20 bets. Of course at a player advantage you want to play more, but it is boring. Perhaps I will try the Wizard method of win huge or bust out. For what it's worth, I am about even ($1088) and have played through about $2800 of the $33000 play through.
You only played blackjack flat betting $20/hand? I honestly found I couldn't win a hand when I bet $20... but when I bet $1 or $5 it seemed a lot more 'normal.'
JoB went quite well, I made $135 playing at the .50 level for about 300 hands... tons of hits and one quads in there. I would REALLY like to see someone try the upper level of the JoB to see if it's fair as well. You could definitely play through the wagering requirements a lot faster this way.
Are you anywhere close to getting through the play through?Quote: RomesYou only played blackjack flat betting $20/hand? I honestly found I couldn't win a hand when I bet $20... but when I bet $1 or $5 it seemed a lot more 'normal.'
JoB went quite well, I made $135 playing at the .50 level for about 300 hands... tons of hits and one quads in there. I would REALLY like to see someone try the upper level of the JoB to see if it's fair as well. You could definitely play through the wagering requirements a lot faster this way.
Incidentally, does that wager made on the Gamble count towards your playthrough?
And perhaps a noob question regarding the no-hole-card blackjack. A moment ago, I got a blackjack against a dealer face. The dealer played out his hand to a 3-card 21, but I was still paid my 3:2. What am I missing here? Why is the dealer playing out the hand?
Quote: DeucekiesGood to know. How do I check my playthrough?
And perhaps a noob question regarding the no-hole-card blackjack. A moment ago, I got a blackjack against a dealer face. The dealer played out his hand to a 3-card 21, but I was still paid my 3:2. What am I missing here? Why is the dealer playing out the hand?
The game makers didn't have the finesse to know when not to bother completing the dealer's hand.
Since the cards are reshuffled each hand, it's a "no harm no foul" item, but it shows a lack of attention to detail that makes me wonder what else they didn't know.
Quote: DeucekiesGood to know. How do I check my playthrough?
And perhaps a noob question regarding the no-hole-card blackjack. A moment ago, I got a blackjack against a dealer face. The dealer played out his hand to a 3-card 21, but I was still paid my 3:2. What am I missing here? Why is the dealer playing out the hand?
it's been a while since I played blackjack with no hole card. Maybe that's how it's done in Europe? I forget. But I guess you have to wait anyway until the dealer's 2nd card to see if there is Blackjack, right?
Incidentally, in my second session, I had 188 wagers totaling $3,870. That's an average bet of $20.585 a hand. Not sure how that happened. Do splits not count as "wagers", but count as "coin in" or something?
With $200 deposited and $777*2 bonus, how much do I gotta play through?
PSS: I may be on the opposite side of Romes [or whoever said they're at -7 SDs).
Quote: RSCatchy James Bond music, though. Gotta give it to them.
With $200 deposited and $777*2 bonus, how much do I gotta play through?
PSS: I may be on the opposite side of Romes [or whoever said they're at -7 SDs).
x33, or a total of $57,882 coin in.
Quote: Cashier->Withdrawl
Complete your Mission2Game Casino withdrawal quickly and securely by clicking on one of our payment options below. For assistance, please contact Customer Services.
But there's nothing below that. ?? :(
I'd like to say that I'm very open to evidence of any foul play, especially eight standard deviations south of expectations.
Regarding hand history, a casino rep told me in the chat box that one can be requested via Email. Lots of casinos don't automatically offer them but any legitimate one should be able to provide them upon request. So far I haven't requested one as my play was on the unlucky side but nothing remarkable.
Yes, there is a huge play requirement, but with the player advantage, it shouldn't be an issue. For the new player 444%/333%/555% bonuses, the requirement is 33x the deposit + bonus and blackjack play counts on 20%. So 165x the deposit + bonus. Also, the deposit is "sticky," meaning they deduct from any withdrawal. Bonus rules.
Regarding the "too good to be true" comments, in the early days of Internet gambling Unified Gaming had a blackjack game with a 0.5% advantage that lasted for about five years. I think the rules were the same as these, except no doubling on 3+ cards.
Quote: RSCatchy James Bond music, though. Gotta give it to them.
With $200 deposited and $777*2 bonus, how much do I gotta play through?
PSS: I may be on the opposite side of Romes [or whoever said they're at -7 SDs).
I hate you, lol... and as someone else said yeah $57,880 I think... just under $58,000 worth of wagering.
You won't have any options to cash out until you hit the wagering requirements. Then, you can go to the cashier and you will have options. I'd assume check by mail is a pretty standard option.
Here is my offer.
It must be done on a new account.
Someone must use a new members bonus.
You use your money for the BJ and the double up bets (thats ok for you cuz its +ev)
Each time you bet $20 or more a hand and choose correctly, ill give you extra on your side bet. Im willing to bet $50 or more each decision for at least 10 decisions.
win your double up and I will give you $55, if you lose you give me only $50
A random day and time, no public announcement.
I'm probably willing to lose $1500
Ill make it $57,if each time you win your first decision, the bets is settled then you let it ride and we rebet.
My only fear is they will obviously catch wind of this this thread.
I swear it chose QJss over 22, I wouldn't put my life on it.Quote: RomesAlso, the JoB automatically holds basic strategy for you... Though I would give it a double take because I've found it holding the wrong things a few times. For the most part, it's accurate though, which would save a lot of time. All you have to do is click deal then click draw (same spot so just double click =p). It's about 85-90% accurate in my short experienced opinion.
NOTE: I'm probably not going to be betting the $25/pull for now, so who knows, it could be like BJ and you auto lose at that level...
Example: I have 7h - Ad - Jd - 5c - 10d... it's trying to auto hold just the AJ instead of 3 to the royal...
