Panama Blackjack variation, negative house edge?

I wanted to share/comment on Panama BlackJack

I play in a country with the same exact rules as Panama, which as per the Wizard of Odds means a 0.14% house edge

I am amazed that I have been actually up playing very frequently for a long time, without counting just using basic strategy but I figured the reason (thanks to this site); with bonus plays there is an actual negative house edge (House loses money)

Would want someone who is good at numbers to verify if this is true

The casino I played the most as, has this bonus, which is what makes the house edge negative (Casino loses money)

When you get a suited blackjack of spades, you get a prize, it varies from US$20 to US$120, average prize being about US$40

Min is US$10, I normally higher bets. But with this rules, its best to bet the MIN$, so I did my analysis with this and decided to change my bet to the min!

a)I believe the odds of a blackjack is 1 in 336 aprox ( 1 in 21 for blackjack and 1 in 16 for suited spades)
When playing min bet this is 4x so this means 4/336 or 1.19%!!

Since the game has a 0.14% house edge, if my numbers are right, the house edge is actuall -1.05%! Without counting, no idea how high it would be if one counts!

At 150 hands an hour its $15.75, not bad free money for playing blackjack! Of course variance makes you lose money some days but on the long run you would win
While the casino gives you comps ( Free beer, hamburgers etc) which certainly has added value
Where else will you actually get paid US$15.00 to spend 2 hours of leisure time?

Since I normally bet US$15-US$20, my edge has been lower

Woudl like if someone could confirm if what I state is right?

Quote: jpmurga

When you get a suited blackjack of spades, you get a prize, it varies from US$20 to US$120, average prize being about US$40
a)I believe the odds of a blackjack is 1 in 336 aprox ( 1 in 21 for blackjack and 1 in 16 for suited spades)
When playing min bet this is 4x so this means 4/336 or 1.19%!!

Are you saying the bonus bet pays 4 to 1 if you get a suited blackjack and 0 if you do not and these are the only two outcomes for the bonus bet?

No it gets paid 3:2 as always, however you get a bonus prize, after the end of the shoe, where you choose from a board prizes that range from US$20, US$120, its an EXTRA PRIZA. ANd its only spades, not any suited blackjack. All others blackjacks are treated as always no reduction

So when you get the "bonus"... how is it decided? Is there something like a wheel you spin and get what it lands on? Are there equal chances of getting the top and bottom prizes? If not, what are the weighted averages?

EDIT: So if you choose from that board, are you just as likely to get $20 as you are $120, or are there more $20 options than $120 options? I'd assume they weight it so it's less likely to get the $120.

Edit Question: If you get more than one spade blackjack during that shoe are you able to draw more than once from that bonus board?


Well, we'd need to get the real mean (average) of the prizes (and weighted scale of how likely they are). Do you spin a wheel or something where they are of equal chance? If that's the case then the mean between $120 and $20 is actually $70, which will up your expectation a bit more. If they're not of equal chance you'd have to weight them according to their payout/frequency to get the real mean.

From the Wizards extended rules variation sheet we can see a if a suited blackjack pays 2-1, that decreases the HE by -.54%. This is for 'any' suited blackjack though. All things being equal, 1/4 of those will be "spades" blackjacks... So I would assume it would be safe to say if it paid 2-1 on SPADES, then it would decrease the HE by -.135%... This would get you to almost a break even game (give you stated the HE is .14%).

However, since you're flat betting $10, and you're getting paid "essentially" 7-1 on your "average" payout from this bonus, I could see this dramatically changing the negative effect on the HE. Again, this is if the actual mean (average), weighted with frequency, is $70. If this were the case though I would take an educated guess that flat betting $10 per hand with perfect basic strategy would make that a player advantage game! HE ~= -.3325%... which in this game is "something similar" to playing and always having a true count +1.

**DO NOTE: I'm not claiming these are exact numbers. This should be a fairly rough educated estimate, and taken as such =).

It is similar to a wheel, there are 48 cards on the wall,
Once 30-35 cards are used up they refill the wall

The 48 prices
1 US$240
1 US$200
2 US$160
2 US$120
4 US$80
12 US$40
26 US$20

In this case the average is US$48, I used $40 for simplification

Yes EVERY spade blackjacks gets you a chance on the board, I've had 2 bonuse in a shoe multiple times, you choose 2 cards from the board

Also are you sure the HE is only .354, if you flat bet $10? Where is my calculation wrong ( Other than rounding)

Quote: jpmurga

It is similar to a wheel, there are 48 cards on the wall,
Once 30-35 cards are used up they refill the wall

The 48 prices
1 US$120
1 US$100
2 US$80
2 US$60
4 US$40
12 US$20
26 US$10

In this case the average is US$24, I used US$20 for simplicifaction

Yes EVERY spade blackjacks gets you a chance on the board, I've had 2 bonuse in a shoe multiple times, you choose 2 cards from the board

Also are you sure the HE is only .354, if you flat bet $10? Where is my calculation wrong ( Other than rounding)

Perfect info... Okay now we can work... So the average is pennies over $24, so let's call it $25 for simplistic reasons. When you get a suited spade blackjack, you're getting paid 3-2, then an ADDITIONAL $25 (on average). Thus, to get the most out of this bonus, you'd need to be betting the least (table min) you can.

Assuming $10 is the table min... Your 3-2 gets your $15, and your bonus gets you $25, which means you're getting a total payout on your spades blackjack of $40 (on average). This means you're getting a 4-1 payout for suited spade blackjack.

As referenced above the 2-1 for "suited" blackjack is -.54% to the house edge. All things being equal 1/4 of those will be spades. So your 2-1 "suited spades" blackjack payout will be -.135% to the house edge. Now, you're getting paid 4-1, instead of 2-1. Someone might confirm this, but to me this seems simple enough that if you're getting double the payout, it would double the expectation and HE adjustments.

Thus, your 4-1 "suited spades" would effect the house edge by -.27%... which is better than Early Surrender to a 10. This seems to logically make sense to me at least.

Therefore, I'll conclude that by betting $10/hand and playing perfect basic strategy... The player has an advantage in this game of (-.27 + .14) = -.13%.

E:
1) not bad for an off the top advantage at least. Basic strategy will win at that game (so long as they run the spades promotion)
2) note that if you can bet less than $10 you SHOULD. If the table min is $5, then you're getting 8-1 on your blackjacks, and thus it would effect the house edge by another -.27% (bring the HE to -.40%, a little better than a true count +1).

Sorry I did a mistake ( Exchange Rate error) I've corrected my initial price chart for future readers
Something didn't seem right since the bonuse is actually a greater advantage
Prices are double of what I state
The 48 prices
1 US$240
1 US$200
2 US$160
2 US$120
4 US$80
12 US$40
26 US$20

Average is closer to US$50 ( I mentioned US$40) BEFORE, I've corrected my post for future readers

Meaning closer to you -0.4%, I was under the impression it was -1%, however it still good odds

Quote: jpmurga

Sorry I did a mistake ( Exchange Rate error) I've corrected my initial price chart for future readers
Something didn't seem right since the bonuse is actually a greater advantage
Prices are double of what I state
The 48 prices
1 US$240
1 US$200
2 US$160
2 US$120
4 US$80
12 US$40
26 US$20

Average is closer to US$50 ( I mentioned US$40) BEFORE, I've corrected my post for future readers

Meaning closer to you -0.4%, I was under the impression it was -1%, however it still good odds

This would double the average "bonus" expectation from $25, to ~$50. Meaning your $10 3-2 blackjack would pay $15, plus (on average) a $50 bonus. Meaning your total payout for the suited spades blackjack is $65, which is 6.5-1. 4-1 suited spades is -.27, so 6.5-1 suited spades would effect the house edge by approximately -.434%. Assuming the .14% HE to start, this means the player would have an advantage of HE = -.294%.

Thanks, but I am not sure if you can do simple arithmetic to get from a 2:1 HE effect to a 4:1 or 6:1 HE effect

But regardless the %, it is correct that the HE is positive for this ( In the long run) if you know your basic strategy.

Quote: jpmurga

Min is US$10, I normally higher bets. But with this rules, its best to bet the MIN$, so I did my analysis with this and decided to change my bet to the min!

a)I believe the odds of a blackjack is 1 in 336 aprox ( 1 in 21 for blackjack and 1 in 16 for suited spades)
When playing min bet this is 4x so this means 4/336 or 1.19%!!

Since the game has a 0.14% house edge, if my numbers are right, the house edge is actuall -1.05%! Without counting, no idea how high it would be if one counts!

Woudl like if someone could confirm if what I state is right?

Yes, I think what you say is correct (subject to the aproximations you make).
But with a -0.14% HE, if you did count and used a small spread (say $10 to $40) you could probably double this to $30 p.h. and with a bigger spread make it $50 p.h.

Actually there is a much easier way to increase your win p.h. than the counting.
If it is allowed you play 2 or more boxes of $10.

Thanks, AceTwo
I believed my calculation was correct, but was put off by Romes' comment.

I've only been playing Blackjack frequently for about 9 months (Known how to play for years but never played "hard", only in trips to gambling cities).
I have basic strategy memorized by know, and reading/learning counting, but haven't tried to count at the table ( It's been a headache when I try in on a live shoe and worry about getting noticed).

This bonus payout only occurs in one casino, other casinos has other promotions Paying your bet on 3 of a kind, or harder to get bonus spins.


I keep an excel sheet o my daily withs finished calculating january I as $4,000 in the month on this casino, but only up about US$2,500 overall ( Lost in other casinos)


Another worry in counting is that I don't want to get banned if I win constantly, which I think will happend with the current house edge+ counting. While they are about a dozen casinos, the people that bet at tables are few and its known scene so I can't play unnoticed.
Edit also the table has alow max bet, of $200 don't know if this affects counting

Thanks! Haven't thought of that
Unluckily if you play 2 boxes it goes up to $20, 3 $40 and 4 or more $50

However I can bring my brother, or gf along, and play with them however this bring other problems.


Or find a time when the casion is empty and play alone, hoping to increase to 250hands per hour

Quote: jpmurga

Thanks, but I am not sure if you can do simple arithmetic to get from a 2:1 HE effect to a 4:1 or 6:1 HE effect

But regardless the %, it is correct that the HE is positive for this ( In the long run) if you know your basic strategy.

After review, I believe the numbers I gave above should be accurate... You simply weight the payout to the "suited spades." It's more/less just basic algebra.