15 Month's AP - Largest Figure Loss, frustration level = High

Quote: FleaStiff

Its the middle of the night, I can't figure out what is going on with some of these posts. Apparently some posters are being accused of making exaggerated claims when it comes to winnings though it also appears the claims could in fact be valid albeit highly unlikely.

My experience in the gambling world...is that most gamblers don't feel comfortable sharing the truth about their gambling win/loss.

People who lose, have small wins, or "break-even gamblers" exaggerate their wins.
(1) They will tell you how many jackpots they won this year, or talk about all their big wins.
...(a) An interesting subset of these are "con artists", who in my experience, aren't skilled enough to win without scamming people.
...(b) Some people are just story-tellers who want attention.

People who make large profits usually pretend to make LESS than they do.
(1) They often do NOT talk about their big wins except with family & maybe 1-2 friends.
(2) They talk about their big losses...e.g. If you lost X, Y, and Z over the past year...either you make a lot of money, or you're being really stupid playing a losing game.
(3) But mostly, they stay really quiet & out of the limelight.

It's funny. In the real world of APs, if you complain about all your losses & don't mention any wins, you're more apt to look like a profitable gambler. ...unless you do it in the vein of ZK. (Plenty of non-APs complaining about how they lose all the time.)

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When sharing stories on WizardOfVegas, I meet extreme resistance from many people when talking about
(a) people who sleep in bushes or stay up 72-hrs (because they can't afford a hotel room) trying to eke out a living
(b) people who make 6-7-8-figures a year

Some people here are very disbelieving of experiences outside their comfort zone (which is often working class, or lower middle class).

My best stories never make it anywhere close to WizardOfVegas (even in anonymized versions) for this very reason.
There's a very cynical crowd here.

P.S. As far as I know, none of the better gamblers I know post on this board. I was a ghost for years, but made some money on a tip here in 2015, and decided to share a few things in response. Otherwise, I never would have made an account. (I have no accounts on any other gambling boards.)

Quote: NOTY

APPRECIATE THE AWESOME WELCOME TO THE BOARDS FROM EVERY DIRT BAG - 3 YEARS LATER AND I STILL HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN HOW POORLY I WAS TREATED!

NOTY,

I see you are doubleA9 from 2015, and you signed on as him yesterday, then made this account as that one was closed, and signed back in this morning.

I would agree that the forum gave you less than a reasonably friendly welcome. I think it would be worth all of us, including you, starting again, if you are interested.

I will leave this current account open for 3 days or unail we hear from you, whichever is sooner. Please advise either in this thread or by PM to me if you would like the doubleA9 account re-opened, and i will unlock it.. You have that option since you resigned back then (as opposed to suspended for violating forum rules) . Please DO NOT make any other posts as NOTY until we straighten this out.

Either way, this account will be closed as a duplicate at the end of that 3 days. If you would like to return, it will be as doubleA9, your original account.

Thanks, and I hope you decide to re-join. If not, I wish you good variance with your play.

Keep in mind, the dirt-bag comment would ordinarily lead to a suspension for a personal (forum-wide) insult. If you return, you will need to avoid any further, similar comments.

Quote: mamat

My experience in the gambling world...is that most gamblers don't feel comfortable sharing the truth about their gambling win/loss.

Of course not.
We all try to pocket some chips that the floor won't see. Dealers often advise us to do so.
We all go home and give the wife and the various mistresses part of our "winnings" even if we don't have any winnings.
We all tell the sweet young thing that slips into the blackjack stool next to us about our winnings because she is so lovely and is really and truly interested in us and couldn't possibly be a hooker solely interested in our money.

And in playing we all remember the winning rolls but tend to have faded memories about those 'Seven Out, Line Away' phrases that we heard "once or twice".

And we all made the official check out time without having to seek a "late check out" waiver and we all tipped the luggage schlepper on our way out and didn't have to carry our own bags.

Wives may know the truth but certainly when we get back home, its our regular bartenders who know instantly how we did on our trip to Vegas.

Well that was an interesting read if you enjoy that sort of thing. Turning several thousand dollars into a quarter million, unlikely, but possible, in the context of gambling. There are a number of stories of people who have done this or more over the years.

Where this person got into trouble is when he stated that he did this using blackjack AP methods and specifically stated he played using an optimal spread and a risk of ruin below 1%. Risk of ruin below 1% is key. Playing 1% RoR with a bankroll of $3000, means playing very low limits. You just can't get enough money on the table, and still remain within that stated RoR to win much of anything.

Now if he has said he started with 50k and turned it into 300k, the same quarter million dollar win, that would be much more likely as he would have had a working bankroll to support the kind of bets necessary to win this amount and still play within the stated RoR of less than 1%.

I only mention my wins to people, so I'm a winner in my book. Bro yesterday I won $140 and got a free movie ticket and a free dinner buffet. I'll post each individual session I win at. Left the casino since I hit my win goal.

There are lots of examples of people turning $1 or $2 into millions, even hundreds of millions,
and hundreds of millions of examples of them not doing that.

Quote: Dalex64

There are lots of examples of people turning $1 or $2 into millions, even hundreds of millions,
and hundreds of millions of examples of them not doing that.

Are you referencing lottery winners? The difference here is this poster specifically stated a set of parameters. "I use a set spread, indices, and proper BS. Depending on the table and rules, I also keep my RoR = >1%".

It is these parameters, this line quoted, where the poster's claim went from an unlikely miraculous type run to what I would say is impossible in the parameters of blackjack card counting.

When I say impossible, I mean far, far outside any kind of reasonable standard deviation.

Wait is that the same b79 thst trolled the forum for months and made stories up about saving people on the highway and made 100 names? Or is that a different bac cat?

If 18 yo's land in a row, and no one is around to see it, did it happen?

Quote: GWAE

Wait is that the same b79 thst trolled the forum for months and made stories up about saving people on the highway and made 100 names? Or is that a different bac cat?

If you look closely you might spot him here getting on a helicopter.

Yes, I was referring to lottery winners. I'm also saying he could have achieved his results purely by luck, no matter what methods he tried to employ to achieve them.

Same thing as lottery winners, who may or may not carefully select their numbers, amount and frequency of their bets, etc.

In other words, if he did achieve what he claimed, it wasn't because of anything that he did, and I agree, outside of any kind of reasonable standard deviation. Just like lottery winners.

This article talks about the relative futility of trying to win the powerball lottery, which has also been a topic of discussion on this site several times before.

http://ww2.amstat.org/publications/jse/v13n2/mecklin.html

Yet people still play, and people still win.

referring back to the original post,

Quote:

P.S. I grew fast in a financial sense... starting at $3,000 and turning it into over $245,000.00 in just 15 months;

that is the claim

Quote:

I also realize that any lucky gambler can achieve this

that is easily a true statement

Quote:

but I am not just any gambler.

that is an irrelevant statement

Quote:

I use a set spread, indices, and proper BS. Depending on the table and rules, I also keep my RoR = >1%.

that is a statement that indicates a strategy for mitigating losses, and possibly playing at a very small advantage through card counting.

given everything we know here about card counting, rates of return, and the wild swings of variance even when playing the game under the best of conditions, I believe the best evidence to support his claim has to be being "any lucky gambler" and not because of his method of play.

distilling down to the three possibilities, "he got lucky" and "he won because of unusual skill" and "he is lying" I think what people were arguing about here is how probable any of those possibilities were.

in my opinion, the first and the third possibility are both much more probable than the 2nd.

Quote: NOTY

APPRECIATE THE AWESOME WELCOME TO THE BOARDS FROM EVERY DIRT BAG - 3 YEARS LATER AND I STILL HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN HOW POORLY I WAS TREATED!

DoubleA9?

and why did the OP (DoubleA9) permanently resign?

Quote: 100xOdds

DoubleA9?

and why did the OP (DoubleA9) permanently resign?

I read back through it, not sure but I think I recall seeing this when it originated. Basically he had a bit of a harsh welcome, admittedly. However, he did have a bit of a story where the numbers didn't line up exactly.

Either way I wish we would have given him a better welcome, just as that's what I'd like to think about this community. Then we could have politely asked a few more questions to simply get to the bottom of the quandary. Win/win.

Quote: MrBo

Where this person got into trouble is when he stated that he did this using blackjack AP methods and specifically stated he played using an optimal spread and a risk of ruin below 1%. Risk of ruin below 1% is key. Playing 1% RoR with a bankroll of $3000, means playing very low limits. You just can't get enough money on the table, and still remain within that stated RoR to win much of anything.

Playing a non-Kelly Reverse Martingale system...can allow 100x in 15 months with 1% ROR. It simply requires a hot-as-hell run sometime during the 15 months, which supercharges the bankroll.
(1) where you drop your bet very quick during losing periods to stay within 1% RoR, or never have a losing period
(2) and you might be betting over-Kelly during parts of the win streak.

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Personally, I never had a massive hot run at one table. My largest run was 50x (was up 55x, then left at 50x), but unfortunately I didn't start with much.
I think I've won 16-18 hands in a row (but not 20).

I did have a cold run, where I didn't win 31 hands in a row (lost 30, pushed hand #29)...at ten different tables (where I was playing a strategy of "If I lose my 1st three hands, then I leave."). Lost -$150 that day before I quit (30 bets of $5). Definitely did not believe in martingale after that day... :-)

A former BJ player was managing the Golden Nugget high limit room about 15 years ago, just before he retired. He said his best run was in Atlantic City, $850 -> $65K-75K (75x-88x). It's been so long ago, that I am not sure the exact numbers.
-> The OP's alleged 15 month period from $3K to $245K is 82x, which is roughly the same size as this one "hot run" (which occurred in 1 day!)

It was definitely less than 100X. I've had my ears perked over the past 30+ years for a 100X+ BJ run (in 1 day), and haven't heard of one yet.

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One casino manager said to me decades ago, that they weren't afraid of people coming in with big money. They were afraid of the person who could come in with $20-100 and press their way up to $10K-100K before leaving the table.

When the El Cortez flat-bet me decades ago, I was just grinding out a little money each day. The guy who "flat-bet" me...said there was always the chance I could have a hot streak and leave with $30K.

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People may tell lots of stories (and there might be plenty on WizardofVegas).
...but it's hard to eliminate most of them on "purely mathematical grounds".

Usually there's some other nonsense that doesn't click for people with many years experience in the trenches.

P.S. In my experience, almost everyone who claims to use a certain "RoR", is not... Some people don't really understand RoR. Others go on tilt (like I think all of us do), and have brief periods where they are overbetting.

I try to stick to quarter-Kelly, but there are many, many times where I was overbetting (if you consider actual bankroll, and not implied bankroll).

Quote: djatc

I only mention my wins to people, so I'm a winner in my book. Bro yesterday I won $140 and got a free movie ticket and a free dinner buffet. I'll post each individual session I win at. Left the casino since I hit my win goal.

How did you score a movie ticket? I understand a comped dinner part.