'When would be the best time to find '2D S17' games with $50 min. in Vegas?'
Any help/advice would be appreciated!
Quote: theOmega623I see on the Wizard's survey that a handful of places in Vegas offer '2D S17' games with $50 min. but at certain times these games may be raised to $100 min. or higher. My question is 'When would be the best time to find these games being offered with a $50 minimum bet or lower?' As of now, I plan to make my trip during the week (Sun,Mon,Tue). Would this be the best time?
Any help/advice would be appreciated!
The El Cortez, They have a 25 min single deck table.
Quote: theOmega623I see on the Wizard's survey that a handful of places in Vegas offer '2D S17' games with $50 min. but at certain times these games may be raised to $100 min. or higher. My question is 'When would be the best time to find these games being offered with a $50 minimum bet or lower?' As of now, I plan to make my trip during the week (Sun,Mon,Tue). Would this be the best time?
Any help/advice would be appreciated!
Aria has them almost all day on the main floor
Quote: theOmega623I see on the Wizard's survey that a handful of places in Vegas offer '2D S17' games with $50 min. but at certain times these games may be raised to $100 min. or higher. My question is 'When would be the best time to find these games being offered with a $50 minimum bet or lower?' As of now, I plan to make my trip during the week (Sun,Mon,Tue). Would this be the best time?
Any help/advice would be appreciated!
M has a $25 S17 DD table on the main floor, and 2 $50 S17 DD game in high limit room. I been to M several occasions and on different shifts, the $25 S17 table was always open.
Quote: theOmega623Would you guys happen to have any information on the Monte Carlo (on the subject)? That is probably where I will be staying.
Monte Carlo has the same rules as the Mirage game. Although there is no mid-shoe entry. This might be a pro or a con depending on your intentions.
Quote: theOmega623Ok that's great. No mid-shoe is a pro for me as I always prefer to play alone (more hands per hour). I am thinking that playing in the high roller room during the week I should be able to get a table to myself.
Is there possibly a fun Trip Report in the mix? I love to see trip reports from the eyes of 'high roller room' players, as I don't generally play in there (or more importantly at those limits) at this time =/.
Quote: theOmega623Would you guys happen to have any information on the Monte Carlo (on the subject)? That is probably where I will be staying.
The S17 DD game at Monte Carlo is in the high limit room as well. The few times I stopped in it was a $50 min, so I don't know if it periodically goes up to $100.
Quote: theOmega623Thank you for the info! I am hoping the minimum bet for that game will be $50 while I am there.
Um, one other piece of advice... You probably don't want to count at a place you're staying (unless you're just straight paying for the room, which you shouldn't be). You should at least call up and get a reduced rate based on your $50min average play (even if you don't have a membership with them). Often they'll put you in a room and as long as you put some hours in on the tables they just end up comping your room (but I would use a reduced just above break even spread for this as again you don't usually want to count at the place you're staying).
The bad thing that can happen..? They find out you're counting, take your picture, flyer you, add you to OSN, and kick you out of their hotel on your trip =/. Careful with your own property/their affiliated properties!
Quote: theOmega623One thing I have thought about doing is playing for big comps & less EV at the $100 min tables. Basically, betting $100 per hand until the true count reaches +5, then bet $200. Bet $300 if the true count reaches +10. I did a simulation of this & it came out to be a little over $50 per 100 hands EV (That is using AOII full indices with ace side count & 55% deck penetration). I was thinking that betting like this would rack up a ton of comps, the spread would only be 1-3 & I would only be raising my bet at all maybe a handful of times all night. I ultimately decided not to do this, but it seemed like a good way to play & make some pretty good money (without the heat). What do you guys think about this?
Not a bad idea, but I would execute differently. I would spread 1-3, raising to $200 at TC +3. This is often the most profitable of the TC's because it still appears the most frequently (of the bigger counts) while offering a solid 1%+ advantage (FUN FACT: If you're betting the same on TC +3 and TC +4, TC +3 is by far more profitable than TC +4 because of it's frequency). Then I would up to 300 at like TC +6 if you're worried about spreading too often. This way it would look like you have a 1-2 spread (which would be a slightly positive game from the previous numbers I've run in another similar thread).
The other thread is here: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/20201-0-00-blackjack/
This was a quick run of the numbers with Hi/Low. Your count should be more tailored to single/double deck $100 min games, so I would guess you'd be dollars ahead of the estimations even. A 1-2 spread should still net $40+ per hour! Again, I'd up to $200 at TC +3 =), but if you're really worrying about the place you're staying, perhaps TC +4 or +5 then...
Romes: I was hoping for a response from you lol. I certainly like the betting spread you suggested much better (TC+3 - $200, TC+6 - $300) as I just did a simulation of this strategy & it came out at nearly $100 EV (2D S17 DAS Re-split aces allowed 60% pen.) I must say that playing the $100 min tables is very tempting as it comes with a lot of perks:
1. Much greater comps.
2. Playing re-split aces (M offers this game)
3. Always playing alone (I would think)
4. Using a smaller spread
Although I like your spread much better (raising sooner at +3), I am very worried about being booted as im sure the pit would be watching very closely. I plan on spending 90% of my time in vegas playing. I am thinking 1 of 2 things will happen, they will either roll out the red carpet or ban me & send out my picture to all their affiliations.
Quote: theOmega623Wizard: Thank you for your response! This is exactly what I was thinking.
Romes: I was hoping for a response from you lol. I certainly like the betting spread you suggested much better (TC+3 - $200, TC+6 - $300) as I just did a simulation of this strategy & it came out at nearly $100 EV (2D S17 DAS Re-split aces allowed 60% pen.) I must say that playing the $100 min tables is very tempting as it comes with a lot of perks:
1. Much greater comps.
2. Playing re-split aces (M offers this game)
3. Always playing alone (I would think)
4. Using a smaller spread
Although I like your spread much better (raising sooner at +3), I am very worried about being booted as im sure the pit would be watching very closely. I plan on spending 90% of my time in vegas playing. I am thinking 1 of 2 things will happen, they will either roll out the red carpet or ban me & send out my picture to all their affiliations.
Well I was also assuming at the $50 and $100 min games you'd provide some cover ;)... Like come off the top for 200. Or my favorite, the first time you raise your bet should be when the count goes negative, so anyone checking you out when you come in might not think twice. Research cover plays to see the ones that aren't too costly so you can employ them appropriately without cutting in to your EV. If you're running cover plays, I would think a "1-2" spread of 200 at TC +3 would suffice. I doubt you'll get too many TC +6 $300 bets out, and if you feel you've gotten too many then just bet $200.
If you really want to play where you're staying you could also play a session or two on day 1 with no spread, giving the impression you're a flat better. Be creative, but not costly!
Quote: theOmega623Thank you Romes those are all great ideas! This is a strategy I am really starting to lean towards, many of the players on this forum have me thinking that my original $50-$300 spread will most likely get me shut down quickly.
Just passing along information I once asked about years ago =). Who knows, maybe you'll see Ace at the $100 min tables lol.
Also, if I am playing the $100-$300 spread how much cash would you suggest I bring for the trip? I was thinking $10k but I dont want any trouble with airport security. Do you think $5k-$7k would suffice?
Quote: theOmega623By the way, if I do decide to play the $100 min tables (I very well may do that) I have a couple questions if you dont mind. How exactly do comps work when playing blackjack? Do you have to ask for them or do they just let you know when they are comping you something? I have never played for comps before (I have usually tried to avoid player's cards).
There have been whole books about this topic, but the bottom line is that they're not really going to "give" you anything. You will earn points, or "Express Comps" if you're at an MLife property (or "Rewards Credits" if you're at a Total Rewards property), which you can then use on the property for basically anything (food, beverage, hotel, etc.). You will almost certainly be disappointed at how many points/express comps you earn, it is borderline insulting these days. But that's the fact of life in Vegas today.
Other than points/express comps/rewards credits, based on how much you gamble, you may be able to talk to a host at the end of your trip and get some of your hotel bill paid for, but you will absolutely not get this if you do not ask.
And also depending on how much you gamble, you will get better room offers in the future. Especially with Total Rewards properties, this is the #1 perk (IMO) for low/medium rollers: future discounted rooms. In my experience, this benefit is almost nonexistent for MLife properties except for the high rollers.
Quote:Also, if I am playing the $100-$300 spread how much cash would you suggest I bring for the trip? I was thinking $10k but I dont want any trouble with airport security. Do you think $5k-$7k would suffice?
How long is your trip? Apologies if you already mentioned. This sounds awfully low, for any length of trip though. I wouldn't bring less than $10k personally but that's just a general feeling. I play $25-$300ish in Vegas (mostly shoe games) and for a weekend trip I will bring $10-15K depending on how much cash I have available.
Quote: theOmega623By the way, if I do decide to play the $100 min tables (I very well may do that) I have a couple questions if you dont mind. How exactly do comps work when playing blackjack? Do you have to ask for them or do they just let you know when they are comping you something? I have never played for comps before (I have usually tried to avoid player's cards).
Also, if I am playing the $100-$300 spread how much cash would you suggest I bring for the trip? I was thinking $10k but I dont want any trouble with airport security. Do you think $5k-$7k would suffice?
How Are Comps Calculated?
Comps, at most casinos, are calculated off of your Theoretical Loss (TL), where TL = TotalAction * HouseEdge. This is what they stand to make off you, on average, for the given time frame (TotalAction = AvgBet*NumHands). They "comp" you a subset (usually 20%) of this back to keep players happy. Thus, what most people don't realize, is they're paying for your comps with your own theoretical money. HouseEdge is not the given BS HouseEdge... They plan for most players to be bad. Although in high limit rooms if they skills check you and find you're a BS player, then they might take your HE % down from 2% to 1%, or even .5%.
More broken down (This is the 'on average' scenario):
TL = (Avg Bet)*(NumHands)*(.02)
So, for example, say you play with a $150 average bet for 5 hours... ***EDITED TO CORRECT NUM HANDS***
Hours Played = 5, and high limit rooms are generally the fast dealers and little less crowded tables, so I'm gonna take 100 hands per hour as the average.
Num Hands = 500
Total Action = 150*500 = 75,000
House Edge = 2% (most casinos start about here, as you can probably tell why if you've ever played with a ploppy)
TL = (75000)(.02) = $1500. Thus, if you came back and played 5 hour sessions until the end of time they would expect to make $1500 from you, on average (each time).
Your comps, as stated above are a subset of your TL, usually about 20% (although might be more in high limit room since you also carry a bigger TL). At 20%, your comp value would be $300. This doesn't include personal comps from pit bosses, this is for players cards reward points/comps. If you're playing black and request a buffet, I'm sure a PB will write you a buffet ticket and not charge it to your players card account points.
If you're playing another game, use the exact same method above, but adjust the HouseEdge accordingly for the game (this is why people whom play more casino favored games get comped more).
Other Questions
Yes, you absolutely should ask for comps. There's no down side to asking. If you don't ask, you won't get it. If you do ask, you might get it, and worse case scenario is you don't get it... which is where you were to begin with!
That being said, if you plan to play $100 min, you should absolutely call your casino/hotel and ask for a host. They'll forward you to a host. Simply inform them you're coming in for a trip, you plan on playing black action in blackjack, and ask if that's usually enough to get a room, food, and beverages comp at their establishments. That's called an RFB comp, btw, and a lot of places give those to 'high rollers.'
What might happen though is they'll put you in the system, get you set up, and comp you at the end of your trip, based off your play. So say you give them 10 hours in a weekend, then they might go ahead and comp your room, and other charges to it (food/beverages/etc). If you want the comp upfront, usually you'll have to show them you're not just all talk by wiring them money upfront for your gambling (This would be your $10k). Then, you wouldn't need to carry it through the airport on the way there, and you could take our markers without hitting ATM's/etc.
While I haven't played $100 min before I should be able to simply extrapolate the info you want. If I play a $10 table, I'll usually buy in for $300 or $400. Thus, at a $100 table that would be $3k or $4k. You might want to message AceOfSpades to ask him about how much might get you red flagged. Note that in my buy in I'm also slightly incorporating for a spread much larger than 1-3, where as you'll only be spreading 1-2 most of the time, so you might not need something like $4k.
I can't recall, but I think you'll be okay with $10k in the airport. Are you traveling with anyone else? Give them $5k and thus you are each only carrying $5k. Listen to the podcast with Bob Nersessian on GWAE, they discuss airports and money. Don't put the money in sealed bags (it looks like you're trying to hide it from them which makes you look suspicious). The best thing you can do is fold it, rubber band it (so it's like a square), take it with you in the scanner and hold it in your hands over your head (Richard Munchkin's advice). If you're not traveling with anyone else $10k 'should' be okay since you have a plane ticket to Vegas. Ensure you also have your hotel receipt or any other documentation showing you're clearly going on a vacation and plan to gamble.
Best Advice on High Limit Questions
PM Ace or another known high limit user. They can give you the up to date info you're seeking as well as advice (how much of a buy in might flag you, or get you immediate comps, etc, etc).
Quote: RomesSo, for example, say you play with a $150 average bet for 5 hours...
Total Action = 150*5 = 750
Hours Played = 5
House Edge = 2% (most casinos start about here, as you can probably tell why if you've ever played with a ploppy)
TL = (3750)(.02) = 75. Thus, if you came back and played 5 hour sessions until the end of time they would expect to make $75 from you, on average.
Hands per hour will be significantly higher than five, I get that it's an example but need to point that out.
Quote: ahiromuHands per hour will be significantly higher than five, I get that it's an example but need to point that out.
Doh, in my rush you're right I didn't calculate that quite right... I did 5 hours, instead of hands.
Re-Done
So, for example, say you play with a $150 average bet for 5 hours...
Total Action = (Avg Bet)*(Num Hands Played) = (150)*(500) = 75,000
House Edge = 2%
TL = (75000)(.02) = 1500. So they would be willing to comp you (on average) about 20% of that... which is $300.
Yeah, in my haste I thought that was a bit low lol but I'm used to seeing $15 TL comp so I guess I glossed over it.
When you contact a host ahead of time they can set up your base and just say "how many hours do you think you'll play?" If you say 10, they'll run the numbers for 10 hours at just $100 flat betting per hour, which results in TL = (100)*(1000 hands)*(.02) = $2,000. So up front they might be willing to take that at someone face value and comp you 10% per say... thus they'll comp you $200 (which could be a room for a couple nights or something).
Quote: RomesYour comps, as stated above are a subset of your TL, usually about 20% (although might be more in high limit room since you also carry a bigger TL). At 20%, your comp value would be $300. This doesn't include personal comps from pit bosses, this is for players cards reward points/comps. If you're playing black and request a buffet, I'm sure a PB will write you a buffet ticket and not charge it to your players card account points.
With all due respect, what the EFF are you smoking?!. 20%?!?!!?? IN 2015?? Maybe, MAYBE if you add up points and all incidentals and all host comps and room discounts and EVERYTHING would you get to 20%. But in today's day and age, points you earn on your card are closer to 2% than 20%, especially with Total Rewards and MLife.
Romes: Thank you for showing me the numbers! I will certainly call the hotel tomorrow, ask for a host, & talk to he/she about the comp situation. Ill let you guys know what they tell me. Also, I will take your advice & split $10K between me & my partner (that way we are only carrying $5K each).
Quote: theOmega623AcesAndEights: My stay will be 3 nights. Thank you for your advice!
Romes: Thank you for showing me the numbers! I will certainly call the hotel tomorrow, ask for a host, & talk to he/she about the comp situation. Ill let you guys know what they tell me. Also, I will take your advice & split $10K between me & my partner (that way we are only carrying $5K each).
There is nothing illegal about carrying $10K or more through an airport domestically. $10K is important for a couple of reasons though:
1) If you are traveling internationally, you must declare at customs if you are carrying more than $10K in currency. I believe this is a US rule so may only apply if traveling in or out of the US. Not 100% sure though as it's never been an issue for me.
2) It is the threshold for a bank or a casino filing a Currency Transaction Report. Which means if you withdraw $10,001 from your bank account or a casino pays you more than $10K in a 24 hour period, they must report it to the feds to combat money laundering.
Again, nothing illegal about either of those scenarios, just things to be aware of. For flying domestically, it's not illegal to carry any amount of currency and you don't have to declare it to anyone. You just want to be careful and take all precautions so you look like an above-the-board gambler and not a drug dealer.
Quote: theOmega623I understand exactly what you are saying. If you dont mind me asking, when you travel with your bankroll how do you transport it? Do you keep it in your wallet, your bag, or do you keep it in your hand when you go through security? I am very cautious & I would like to keep my money in hand if they will allow it.
This is the way I do it; it may not be the best way but to me it is least bad way. I've carried up to around $14K I think to Vegas, don't remember exactly.
First the cash goes in a money belt. This is where you would expect to find cash; not in a zip-lock bag like a drug dealer. Especially while traveling this makes sense; when I get to Vegas I'll be wearing the money belt anyway.
Second the money belt goes inside a leather briefcase. Also in the briefcase are usually a few gambling books, some print outs of VP strategy in case I need to play off some free play, and a copy of the TSA's own policy on cash handling and what is legal and what is not. I can't find the exact page I printed out, but you get the idea. I want to (correctly and honestly) give the impression that I am a high-stakes gambler, and nothing more. I plan on adding a printout of my recent gambling records to this list on my next trip.
Third the briefcase is locked and goes through the x-ray machine with the rest of my carry-on luggage. I walk through the metal detector (I always opt-out of the full body scanners).
Now if TSA has a problem with my briefcase, I ostensibly have to be there to open it. Then if they ask about the money, we can go down that route. But so far that has never happened. Note that my sample size is pretty small (less than 10 trips using this method), so I'm not saying it will never happen. But I like this system. Once I have had a TSA agent ask me to open it, but even in that case he took a glance at the inside and did not even question the money belt or how much was there.
Some people will say keep the cash on your person and carry it through the scanner with you. If using the full-body scanner, I believe this is allowed but you have to hold the cash above your head. To me, this screams to all passengers and TSA agents within eyeshot "HEY EVERYONE I'VE GOT A FAT WAD OF CASH OVER HERE IN CASE YOU WANT TO TRY TO STEAL IT FROM ME."
Obviously this second approach gives you the security of knowing the cash never leaves your person. But it also opens that can of worms with the TSA immediately. They may want to question you about it; they may call law enforcement or the DEA if they're having a particularly bad day or they don't like you.
With my method, all this may still happen. But if they don't want to open the briefcase (they haven't yet), no one knows about the cash. Yes, a nefarious TSA agent could simply walk away with my briefcase, and then I might be screwed. But in my estimation of the probability of this happening, I have decided this is a risk I will take instead of holding the money over my head in the scanner.
Your mileage may vary.
EDITED to add: usually I try to look decently nice while using this technique, so the briefcase isn't out of place. But I have traveled in my default clothing (cargo shorts, t-shirt) with the briefcase and no issues.
Quote: AcesAndEightsQuote: RomesYour comps, as stated above are a subset of your TL, usually about 20% (although might be more in high limit room since you also carry a bigger TL). At 20%, your comp value would be $300. This doesn't include personal comps from pit bosses, this is for players cards reward points/comps. If you're playing black and request a buffet, I'm sure a PB will write you a buffet ticket and not charge it to your players card account points.
With all due respect, what the EFF are you smoking?!. 20%?!?!!?? IN 2015?? Maybe, MAYBE if you add up points and all incidentals and all host comps and room discounts and EVERYTHING would you get to 20%. But in today's day and age, points you earn on your card are closer to 2% than 20%, especially with Total Rewards and MLife.
I'm shocked that no other members have chimed in here. I'm not trying to pile on to Romes here, but I don't want Vegas newbies to get the wrong impression. The description of comps given here is about 20 years out of date, if not more.
Just to reinforce the point, reference this thread and the number of Rewards Credits this member got for their play. 20% is not happening.
As to the pit boss writing you a buffet comp, I have heard of this still happening in 2015 at a few places, like the Horseshoe-branded CET casinos in the midwest. Maybe at smaller or independent casinos in Vegas, but definitely not at the big chain casinos. The pit bosses are completely helpless when it comes to comps, other than entering your play. The "system" rules all.
This is the math I did for my expected comps, though im not at all sure if it is correct. (This is assuming 20% as Romes suggested)
15 hours of play x 100 hands each hour (it will most likely be more) x $100 bet per hand = $150,000 wagered
At 1% house edge (this is not the actual house edge) they would expect me to lose $1500.
A 20% comp of my expect losses at this point would be $300. ($150 at 10%)
Would this be at all correct?
(Thank you for your response joss, I will do that.)
Quote: theOmega623Do you guys think they would comp me most of my room if I am playing the $100 min tables for the 3 days im staying (roughly 15-20 hours altogether) ? Im trying to get a feel for about what I can expect at that level. (My rooms were slightly over $400)
This is the math I did for my expected comps, though im not at all sure if it is correct. (This is assuming 20% as Romes suggested)
15 hours of play x 100 hands each hour (it will most likely be more) x $100 bet per hand = $150,000 wagered
At 1% house edge (this is not the actual house edge) they would expect me to lose $1500.
A 20% comp of my expect losses at this point would be $300. ($150 at 10%)
Would this be at all correct?
(Thank you for your response joss, I will do that.)
20% always used to be industry standard and is supposed to be their standard now. However as denoted in the "I'm done with Ceasars thread" one of the main issues was not getting rated correctly. He was playing craps, loading his odds (which are 0% HE so some PB's ignore them) and thinking they were counting towards his TL.
I think the system for TL I described is still fairly accurate. If you're playing for 5 hours (100 hands per hour) w/ average bet of $150, you're putting $75,000 worth of action through their casino, with an TL of 1500. I would find it shocking if you played at this level and didn't at least get a room (which would be well within the "20%" zone for a rebate... which is $300). Obviously different casino's will do things differently. For example, in my travels through PA I found Rivers has one of the worst comp systems I've ever seen, in which you would be lucky to get $10 for a 5 hour session w/ $150 average bet.
So I do agree some places are not at the 20% rebate, but EVERY place is trying to scale back to jump profits for investors instead of looking at their players. There was also another thread about a guy whom wasn't getting comped at a TR (total rewards) property, called the Wynn, and they straight comped him on the phone. He went on to explain that some places, like the Wynn, understand that comps are like an investment to keep players happy and coming back. There are still places that do this and will comp you accordingly. To my knowledge most black chip players (again, message AOS for example) don't have any issues getting comped rooms/etc. I'm a RED CHIP player and I can get free rooms in Vegas whenever I want through TR. Because of this fact, I wouldn't believe you if you told me you bet blacks with TR and couldn't get comped things like rooms, food, etc.
The call to the host will clear everything up =). Let us know how it goes!
Quote: theOmega623I literally just got off the phone with a host from the Monte Carlo, I told him when I was coming to stay & that I was planning on playing a lot of $50 min blackjack in their high roller room while I am there & I asked him 'How much does your resort typically comp for playing this particular game?'. He told me they have several different ways of comping players & he said I could expect to be comped in the range of $125 to $150 per 4 or 5 hours of play. I also asked him if it would be possible to put these comps towards the cost of my room when I leave & he said 'Absolutely. We will keep track of all your playing time while your playing here & if you want us to cover your room we can do that.' Seemed like a really nice guy, I certainly hope he was honest about the amount they comp their players.
Charge everything to your room. That means everything. I don't care if it's a pack of gum.
Quote: theOmega623I literally just got off the phone with a host from the Monte Carlo, I told him when I was coming to stay & that I was planning on playing a lot of $50 min blackjack in their high roller room while I am there & I asked him 'How much does your resort typically comp for playing this particular game?'. He told me they have several different ways of comping players & he said I could expect to be comped in the range of $125 to $150 per 4 or 5 hours of play. I also asked him if it would be possible to put these comps towards the cost of my room when I leave & he said 'Absolutely. We will keep track of all your playing time while your playing here & if you want us to cover your room we can do that.' Seemed like a really nice guy, I certainly hope he was honest about the amount they comp their players.
This is part of the hustle =p. Were you set on staying there? I'd call a few places (different property owners) and ask the same questions. Did you ask about wiring money upfront and if that would make a difference? Maybe ask about blacks (since you could still spread 1-2 and make money while giving you that 'black' status. If you told him $50 table, then he's going to take your base bet as $50 for quoting you over the phone... Which would indicate 20% of TL... btw ;)
I doubt he wasn't honest... Hosts can definitely hook a player up. If you're worried at all just say "Hey this sounds great, can you e-mail it to me so I can review it?" Then you'll have his direct contact info (great for on the spot comps/etc after you give some play and they get a feel for you as a player - money wise) and a record of what you were quoted.
Quote: theOmega623So I have decided I am going to go with the 'safe' option & play black action only ($100 min) 1-3 spread. Im going to let my host at the resort know that I will be playing black action only so I can get the most comps possible on my trip (& hopefully have no trouble with heat). It will be making less money (around $50 per 100 hands) but im thinking it will benefit me better overall because I can virtually play as long as I want without worry & most likely have my trip comped fully. I am going to bring $10K for this trip & my spread will be the following: TC+4 or lower - $100. TC+5 - $200. TC+10 - $300. With a $10K trip bankroll, anyone want to take a shot at what my ROR will be? (I could take $15K but I really would rather not)
That's a very weak spread that might hurt your EV a lot. As mentioned before (and for the same reasons) I would at least up your bet to $200 at TC +3. There's so many more benefits. If you're worried about heat, up to $300 at TC +6, which you shouldn't see all that often on your stay.
I'd still be hesitant to "camp out." At the black action tables you will have your play evaluated, so even spreading small if someone see's you have a +EV game, they will still ask you to stop playing, and may take all of your comps away. Put some hours in here and there, but look to play at other places near by (that are different properties). If you're in the HL room you should be finding good games <= .3% HE.
Personally I would run the following spread: TC < +2 = $100. TC +2 = $200, TC +6 = $300. That way you're getting that extra EV and for the most part it will appear you have a 1-2 spread. I'll run some numbers on the two tomorrow to see if there's a big difference in EV, which compared to the spread you posted above, I bet there will be slightly significant difference.
I understand it's your trip, your money, and you can do as you want, just throwing my 2 cents in to the mix =). Good luck either way and I hope you have a profitable trip, but more importantly a really fun and great experience!
Quote: theOmega623I just ran a sim with the same system/game raising to $200 at TC+3 & $300 at TC+6 (60% pen). The result was a little over $100 EV. Thats double the EV of raising at TC+5 /+10. Once again Romes, you are 100% correct lol. That kind of EV is just too much to turn down, I think I will use that spread although I will be extremely disappointed if I get backed off & my comps taken from me. I guess it will serve me best to separate my play between a few different places (I will be staying on the strip so why not). At this bet spread, do you think $10K would be enough (for this trip)?
25-30 BB for a "trip" BR is decently okay. Seeing as your BB is $300 (even though at TC +6 you might not have it out all that often) $10k would afford you 33.33 big bets. I think that should be enough for your trip.
Glad you simmed the numbers to check them! Now you can do the same if you come across any other game and want to play it =)
I would suggest using some cover when playing blacks. Maybe bump your bet to $200 when a count goes to TC -1 every now and then to throw anyone checking your play off... Things of that nature.
