Pair of 4s with dealer 5?
I saw today that the proper strategy is to hit. So, that is out of the way.
At the table, there was some discussion among us: Hit? Split? Double? The reasoning for split being, 14 vs 15 is okay. The reasoning for double being, 18 vs dealer 5 is okay.
I doubled, which I now know is wrong. I got another 4. The dealer turned a 10, but drew a 6. So, I was a loser.
To the question: How close was this decision? What is the math for hit, split, and double?
I see people double all the time on a 44 but they would never double on a 53. People seem to think there is an extra need to do something because they have a pair.
Did you discuss about if you could you double after splits as part of the conversation ?Quote: MoscaI got this last night. I don't play BJ a lot, so I don't have the plays on the top of my mind, and I didn't have a strategy card in my wallet (I usually do, the WOO/WOV card).
I saw today that the proper strategy is to hit. So, that is out of the way.
At the table, there was some discussion among us: Hit? Split? Double? The reasoning for split being, 14 vs 15 is okay. The reasoning for double being, 18 vs dealer 5 is okay.
I doubled, which I now know is wrong. I got another 4. The dealer turned a 10, but drew a 6. So, I was a loser.
To the question: How close was this decision? What is the math for hit, split, and double?
Quote: MoscaI might have, I dunno. I understand the play was wrong, I just want to know how wrong.
In a 6 deck, double after split game with a $10 bet the expected profit is:
4,4 vs 6 $1.61 to split, $1.34 to hit
4,4 vs 5 $1.07 to split, $.034 to hit
Do not double any hard 8 playing basic strategy.
hit 8 vs 5 : 0.070805
double 8 vs 5: 0.003456
split 4,4 vs 5: 0.081913
Correct strategy is split if you can double after split.
Double is worst, losing almost 7% of bet compared to hitting and 8% compared to splitting (if DAS)
Quote: RSSounds like OP played single deck or NDAS. If SD, doubling isnt that bad.
Nope, nope, I make no apologies for being clueless. That's why I asked, so I can learn. It was in Pennsylvania. 6 decks, about 75% penetration, DAS. Notice the next card was a 4. I could have had 4-4-4. It's okay, next time I'll know what to do.
Quote: RSSounds like OP played single deck or NDAS. If SD, doubling isnt that bad.
I believe it was shoes at Mohegan Sun in PA.
Quote: 1BBI believe it was shoes at Mohegan Sun in PA.
Yep. There was a guy there who knew what he was doing, I do believe he was keeping track. But he wasn't part of the discussion, he let people play their cards. Good guy, I respected his reservation about giving advice.
Quote: RSSounds like OP played single deck or NDAS. If SD, doubling isnt that bad.
In fact it's the right play if single-deck AND NDAS (since you've already got three small cards out it's like playing with a TC of +3, and thus accounted for in the single-deck BS).
Quote:I saw today that the proper strategy is to hit. So, that is out of the way.
Wait what? I think your main problem is you are looming at an NDAS chart. Or something.
Quote: MoscaI don't play BJ a lot
I didn't have a strategy card in my wallet (I usually do, the WOO/WOV card).
I saw today that the proper strategy is to hit.
Is this the Simple Strategy? Simple Strategy is not Basic Strategy, and is not "the proper strategy". It's an approximation of basic strategy that is usually good enough (following exactly, you might lose 2 or 3 extra hands out of 1000 vs basic)
Basic strategy is to split 4-4 v 5 or 6, if DAS is allowed.
Indices on these are to split at -1 or higher. Doubling on a non-splittable 8 has an index of +3, splitting is preferred if DAS is possible.
For comparison, splitting 9-9 vs 7 is also a +3, splitting 10's vs a 5 is +5. (Both of these are in the BS chart as "Don't do that!" and will similarly elicit comments like "what are you doing?" from advice-dispensing casual superstitious players who believe in preserving the flow of the cards.)
It's at least conceivable that doubling a hard 8 (but not that one) vs 5 might have been the right play, if you were counting cards and things were running well.
... but if you're not counting, don't double a hard hand of less than 9.
Quote: DieterIs this the Simple Strategy? Simple Strategy is not Basic Strategy, and is not "the proper strategy". It's an approximation of basic strategy that is usually good enough (following exactly, you might lose 2 or 3 extra hands out of 1000 vs basic)
Basic strategy is to split 4-4 v 5 or 6, if DAS is allowed.
Indices on these are to split at -1 or higher. Doubling on a non-splittable 8 has an index of +3, splitting is preferred if DAS is possible.
For comparison, splitting 9-9 vs 7 is also a +3, splitting 10's vs a 5 is +5. (Both of these are in the BS chart as "Don't do that!" and will similarly elicit comments like "what are you doing?" from advice-dispensing casual superstitious players who believe in preserving the flow of the cards.)
It's at least conceivable that doubling a hard 8 (but not that one) vs 5 might have been the right play, if you were counting cards and things were running well.
... but if you're not counting, don't double a hard hand of less than 9.
Thank you for the further insight. Good stuff.
What was the count?Quote: MoscaI got this last night. I don't play BJ a lot, so I don't have the plays on the top of my mind, and I didn't have a strategy card in my wallet (I usually do, the WOO/WOV card).
I saw today that the proper strategy is to hit. So, that is out of the way.
At the table, there was some discussion among us: Hit? Split? Double? The reasoning for split being, 14 vs 15 is okay. The reasoning for double being, 18 vs dealer 5 is okay.
I doubled, which I now know is wrong. I got another 4. The dealer turned a 10, but drew a 6. So, I was a loser.
To the question: How close was this decision? What is the math for hit, split, and double?
Quote: DieterDoubling on a non-splittable 8 has an index of +3, splitting is preferred if DAS is possible.
I was wondering about this. So no matter what the count is, splitting 4s is always going to be better than doubling 4s. Do you have the numbers to prove it?
Quote: DieterDoubling on a non-splittable 8 has an index of +3, splitting is preferred if DAS is possible.
I was wondering about this. So no matter what the count is, splitting 4s is always going to be better than doubling 4s. Do you have the numbers to prove it?
Quote: AvincowDo you have the numbers to prove it?
Nope! Nope!
I'm putting my faith in Wong's numbers on this one.
There's a copy on the nightstand, but I don't feel like climbing over everyone to get to it just now.
If your goal is to play it for EV, I believe the recommended actions will be to hit below a certain count, and split above it.
Quote: AvincowI was wondering about this. So no matter what the count is, splitting 4s is always going to be better than doubling 4s. Do you have the numbers to prove it?
Just think about it logically... if you split 4's to a 5 or 6, you can draw A-4-5-6-7 to double/re-split (i.e. get more money on the table in a good situation). If you double, you double your bet and that's it. Already we can tell you have much better odds of getting more money on the table when the dealer has a 'higher' probability of busting if we split.
edit - Not to mention even if you catch a "10" you're sitting on 18, where as the average hand in blackjack is ~18.5. 8 isn't as powerful as the possibilities you could get with 2 new hands and all of the good draw cards listed above.
