Mosca
Mosca
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January 1st, 2015 at 11:20:09 AM permalink
I got this last night. I don't play BJ a lot, so I don't have the plays on the top of my mind, and I didn't have a strategy card in my wallet (I usually do, the WOO/WOV card).

I saw today that the proper strategy is to hit. So, that is out of the way.

At the table, there was some discussion among us: Hit? Split? Double? The reasoning for split being, 14 vs 15 is okay. The reasoning for double being, 18 vs dealer 5 is okay.

I doubled, which I now know is wrong. I got another 4. The dealer turned a 10, but drew a 6. So, I was a loser.

To the question: How close was this decision? What is the math for hit, split, and double?
A falling knife has no handle.
GWAE
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January 1st, 2015 at 11:26:16 AM permalink
If you had a 53 would you have doubled?

I see people double all the time on a 44 but they would never double on a 53. People seem to think there is an extra need to do something because they have a pair.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Mosca
Mosca
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January 1st, 2015 at 11:38:03 AM permalink
I might have, I dunno. I understand the play was wrong, I just want to know how wrong.
A falling knife has no handle.
Hunterhill
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January 1st, 2015 at 11:46:32 AM permalink
It depends on the rules. If they allow double after split then you should split.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
AxelWolf
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January 1st, 2015 at 11:48:02 AM permalink
Quote: Mosca

I got this last night. I don't play BJ a lot, so I don't have the plays on the top of my mind, and I didn't have a strategy card in my wallet (I usually do, the WOO/WOV card).

I saw today that the proper strategy is to hit. So, that is out of the way.

At the table, there was some discussion among us: Hit? Split? Double? The reasoning for split being, 14 vs 15 is okay. The reasoning for double being, 18 vs dealer 5 is okay.

I doubled, which I now know is wrong. I got another 4. The dealer turned a 10, but drew a 6. So, I was a loser.

To the question: How close was this decision? What is the math for hit, split, and double?

Did you discuss about if you could you double after splits as part of the conversation ?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
1BB
1BB
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January 1st, 2015 at 12:11:18 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

I might have, I dunno. I understand the play was wrong, I just want to know how wrong.



In a 6 deck, double after split game with a $10 bet the expected profit is:

4,4 vs 6 $1.61 to split, $1.34 to hit

4,4 vs 5 $1.07 to split, $.034 to hit

Do not double any hard 8 playing basic strategy.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
dwheatley
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January 1st, 2015 at 12:12:40 PM permalink
Wizard's Appendix 1, which is now hiding for some reason...:

hit 8 vs 5 : 0.070805
double 8 vs 5: 0.003456
split 4,4 vs 5: 0.081913

Correct strategy is split if you can double after split.
Double is worst, losing almost 7% of bet compared to hitting and 8% compared to splitting (if DAS)
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
RS
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January 1st, 2015 at 12:57:04 PM permalink
Sounds like OP played single deck or NDAS. If SD, doubling isnt that bad.
Wanderer
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January 1st, 2015 at 2:14:30 PM permalink
Assuming DAS is allowed, I would split 4's vs. a 5. And I don't double a hard 8.
Mosca
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January 1st, 2015 at 2:15:01 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Sounds like OP played single deck or NDAS. If SD, doubling isnt that bad.



Nope, nope, I make no apologies for being clueless. That's why I asked, so I can learn. It was in Pennsylvania. 6 decks, about 75% penetration, DAS. Notice the next card was a 4. I could have had 4-4-4. It's okay, next time I'll know what to do.
A falling knife has no handle.
1BB
1BB
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January 1st, 2015 at 2:15:36 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Sounds like OP played single deck or NDAS. If SD, doubling isnt that bad.



I believe it was shoes at Mohegan Sun in PA.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Mosca
Mosca
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January 1st, 2015 at 2:30:22 PM permalink
Quote: 1BB

I believe it was shoes at Mohegan Sun in PA.




Yep. There was a guy there who knew what he was doing, I do believe he was keeping track. But he wasn't part of the discussion, he let people play their cards. Good guy, I respected his reservation about giving advice.
A falling knife has no handle.
Kellynbnf
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January 1st, 2015 at 3:04:22 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Sounds like OP played single deck or NDAS. If SD, doubling isnt that bad.



In fact it's the right play if single-deck AND NDAS (since you've already got three small cards out it's like playing with a TC of +3, and thus accounted for in the single-deck BS).
RS
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January 1st, 2015 at 3:56:32 PM permalink
Quote:

I saw today that the proper strategy is to hit. So, that is out of the way.



Wait what? I think your main problem is you are looming at an NDAS chart. Or something.
Dieter
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Dieter
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January 1st, 2015 at 4:59:55 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

I don't play BJ a lot
I didn't have a strategy card in my wallet (I usually do, the WOO/WOV card).

I saw today that the proper strategy is to hit.



Is this the Simple Strategy? Simple Strategy is not Basic Strategy, and is not "the proper strategy". It's an approximation of basic strategy that is usually good enough (following exactly, you might lose 2 or 3 extra hands out of 1000 vs basic)

Basic strategy is to split 4-4 v 5 or 6, if DAS is allowed.

Indices on these are to split at -1 or higher. Doubling on a non-splittable 8 has an index of +3, splitting is preferred if DAS is possible.

For comparison, splitting 9-9 vs 7 is also a +3, splitting 10's vs a 5 is +5. (Both of these are in the BS chart as "Don't do that!" and will similarly elicit comments like "what are you doing?" from advice-dispensing casual superstitious players who believe in preserving the flow of the cards.)

It's at least conceivable that doubling a hard 8 (but not that one) vs 5 might have been the right play, if you were counting cards and things were running well.

... but if you're not counting, don't double a hard hand of less than 9.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Mosca
Mosca
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January 1st, 2015 at 5:23:23 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Is this the Simple Strategy? Simple Strategy is not Basic Strategy, and is not "the proper strategy". It's an approximation of basic strategy that is usually good enough (following exactly, you might lose 2 or 3 extra hands out of 1000 vs basic)

Basic strategy is to split 4-4 v 5 or 6, if DAS is allowed.

Indices on these are to split at -1 or higher. Doubling on a non-splittable 8 has an index of +3, splitting is preferred if DAS is possible.

For comparison, splitting 9-9 vs 7 is also a +3, splitting 10's vs a 5 is +5. (Both of these are in the BS chart as "Don't do that!" and will similarly elicit comments like "what are you doing?" from advice-dispensing casual superstitious players who believe in preserving the flow of the cards.)

It's at least conceivable that doubling a hard 8 (but not that one) vs 5 might have been the right play, if you were counting cards and things were running well.

... but if you're not counting, don't double a hard hand of less than 9.




Thank you for the further insight. Good stuff.
A falling knife has no handle.
Biggredd
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January 3rd, 2015 at 1:16:52 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

I got this last night. I don't play BJ a lot, so I don't have the plays on the top of my mind, and I didn't have a strategy card in my wallet (I usually do, the WOO/WOV card).

I saw today that the proper strategy is to hit. So, that is out of the way.

At the table, there was some discussion among us: Hit? Split? Double? The reasoning for split being, 14 vs 15 is okay. The reasoning for double being, 18 vs dealer 5 is okay.

I doubled, which I now know is wrong. I got another 4. The dealer turned a 10, but drew a 6. So, I was a loser.

To the question: How close was this decision? What is the math for hit, split, and double?

What was the count?
*note disclaimer* I hate Hypocrites, Liars, Druggies/Drunks and Thieves. I am also considered an ahole in general. I am ok with it, so don't bother pointing it out, I already know.
Avincow
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January 12th, 2015 at 10:54:01 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Doubling on a non-splittable 8 has an index of +3, splitting is preferred if DAS is possible.



I was wondering about this. So no matter what the count is, splitting 4s is always going to be better than doubling 4s. Do you have the numbers to prove it?
Avincow
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January 12th, 2015 at 10:54:07 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Doubling on a non-splittable 8 has an index of +3, splitting is preferred if DAS is possible.



I was wondering about this. So no matter what the count is, splitting 4s is always going to be better than doubling 4s. Do you have the numbers to prove it?
Dieter
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Dieter
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January 12th, 2015 at 11:48:57 PM permalink
Quote: Avincow

Do you have the numbers to prove it?



Nope! Nope!

I'm putting my faith in Wong's numbers on this one.

There's a copy on the nightstand, but I don't feel like climbing over everyone to get to it just now.

If your goal is to play it for EV, I believe the recommended actions will be to hit below a certain count, and split above it.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Romes
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January 13th, 2015 at 9:15:17 AM permalink
Quote: Avincow

I was wondering about this. So no matter what the count is, splitting 4s is always going to be better than doubling 4s. Do you have the numbers to prove it?


Just think about it logically... if you split 4's to a 5 or 6, you can draw A-4-5-6-7 to double/re-split (i.e. get more money on the table in a good situation). If you double, you double your bet and that's it. Already we can tell you have much better odds of getting more money on the table when the dealer has a 'higher' probability of busting if we split.

edit - Not to mention even if you catch a "10" you're sitting on 18, where as the average hand in blackjack is ~18.5. 8 isn't as powerful as the possibilities you could get with 2 new hands and all of the good draw cards listed above.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
theOmega623
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January 14th, 2015 at 2:00:51 PM permalink
Romes is 100% correct. Bryce Carlson shows the exact math for this play (among many others) in his book 'Blackjack for Blood'.
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