0.00% Blackjack

Assuming I get great rules on a $100 6 deck shoe (S17, DAS, RSA, LS) what type of spread do I need to play a breakeven game? If the spread is pretty small, will there be any heat for playing in this manner? Unfortunately I don't have any software so I can't sim this particular scenario.

Quote: djatc

Assuming I get great rules on a $100 6 deck shoe (S17, DAS, RSA, LS) what type of spread do I need to play a breakeven game? If the spread is pretty small, will there be any heat for playing in this manner? Unfortunately I don't have any software so I can't sim this particular scenario.

I going to guess 1-3 spread for a break even game. And if you can't play that without heat then you're not safe anywhere.

Quote: djatc

Assuming I get great rules on a $100 6 deck shoe (S17, DAS, RSA, LS) what type of spread do I need to play a breakeven game? If the spread is pretty small, will there be any heat for playing in this manner? Unfortunately I don't have any software so I can't sim this particular scenario.

I no longer possess the software required to sim this for you. If someone here were to do it they would want much more information. Penetration would be my first concern.

While we wait for everyone to arise this morning, I'll contribute some thoughts and observations.

A player that I know very well plays the MGM 0.28% house edge six deck game spreading 1-4 black. He's been doing this for years and gets no heat. This person is very skilled, uses a level 2 count, wonging and dozens of index plays. This person consistently makes $25 an hour.

I would not be comfortable with this as a general guideline because of the many variables, least of not the player's skill level. For someone using Hi-Lo or equivalent I'd ballpark it at 1-4 for break even but you had better be on your game. This leaves no room for mistakes.

I can sim it tomorrow maybe if I remember. Also need penetration. And count.

I would think a 1-2 or 1-2.5 spread would break even. If you're thinking about doing what I think you're gonna be doing.....there'd be quite a bit of variance. You will also get rated based on your skillz (retard, ploppy, BS, smart/possible-AP).

Quote: RS

I can sim it tomorrow maybe if I remember. Also need penetration. And count.

I would think a 1-2 or 1-2.5 spread would break even. If you're thinking about doing what I think you're gonna be doing.....there'd be quite a bit of variance. You will also get rated based on your skillz (retard, ploppy, BS, smart/possible-AP).

I agree. A 1-2 spread will get you even. Especially if you take occasional bathroom breaks when the count is bad,

Quote: djatc

will there be any heat for playing in this manner?

If there is any heat and you get any sort of bet restrictions, you will never break even, so the goal is always to play below heat level in a really good game which usually means at a 100 or 300 level at a top tier casino.

Quote: djatc

Assuming I get great rules on a $100 6 deck shoe (S17, DAS, RSA, LS) what type of spread do I need to play a breakeven game? If the spread is pretty small, will there be any heat for playing in this manner? Unfortunately I don't have any software so I can't sim this particular scenario.

Agreed a sim someone will hopefully run will be more exact... For my opinion (assuming average PEN), I would believe you to be playing a break even game with a 1-2 spread. You might even make a few bucks with 1-3 though. TC +2 = 2 units, TC +3 and up = 3 units.

Okay, so as usual once I want to know I want to know... I ran my excel calculations for my benchmark 6D (no RSA, no LS), so your results would even be more positive than this:

1-3 spread
Play TC -1 through TC +8 (or however high you can get)... TC -1 to TC +1 = $100. TC +2 = $200. TC +3 and up = $300. Your long run gain per hour is $49.

1-2 Spread
Play TC -1 through TC +8 (or however high you can get)... TC -1 to TC + 1 = $100. TC +2 and up = $200. Your long run gain per hour is $25.50.

***EDIT***
Once again, once I want to know, I want to know... So I used the calculator to look up the exact realistic HE of .28%, reconfigured the numbers and ran the 1-2 and 1-3 spread as follows:

1-2 spread


1-3 spread



You really want a BREAK EVEN game? Then flat bet your $100 and WONG OUT STRICTLY at any count greater than TC -1:


*#'s from Standford Wong's... is just the hand frequencies.

***EDIT***

Conclusion
This is highly dependent on you having average or better PEN. This requires your play to be perfect, so with mistakes you might be a few bucks less an hour. This assumes you're getting approximately 100 hands per hour. This requires you to wong out at TC -1. As I surmised with $100 being your unit, if you play a game with good rules you really only need a low spread to 'break even', especially when wonging out at TC -1. I don't see how you'd get a lot of heat spreading 1-3, but then again I don't play high limit rooms, so perhaps even a 1-3 will get you checked/heat. Better to ask some players who regularly play high limit rooms, but I would 'think' that 1-3 wouldn't get you looked at too in depth past "Is this guy a total ploppy or not?"

Given the update with the actual .28% HE calculated, I don't see why you wouldn't run a 1-2 spread. Again check with high limit players, but lol if they kick everyone out who doesn't flat bet.

I am guessing that DJATC wants to churn a lot of handle through the game for comps or other incentives. Romes, what would be the advantage if he didn't wong out and just played $100 on +1 or less and $200 on +2 or more?

Quote: DRich

I am guessing that DJATC wants to churn a lot of handle through the game for comps or other incentives. Romes, what would be the advantage if he didn't wong out and just played $100 on +1 or less and $200 on +2 or more?

I figured he was trying to work for comps... but you should really not get any heat with a 1-2 spread and playing down to a TC -1. I don't know why he wouldn't run the 1-2 spread, or even 1-3 pending nitty heat.

Basically, you're asking what would the 1-2 spread net if he played all negative hands as well as positive.

It would be the same result minus the gain per hand on those hands up to -8. I didn't have those in my excel calculations because I don't play those negative counts ;)... but they're not hard to calculate:

$48.38 (Total Gain Playing TC -1 to TC +8 or higher)
-10.88 (TC -2)
-8.01 (TC -3)
-7.98 (TC -4)
-5.56 (TC -5)
-6.56 (TC -6)
-3.78 (TC -7)
-2.14 (TC -8)

Sum of TC -2 to TC -8 = -44.91

Overall expected gain per hour, spreading 1-2 (TC +1 or under = $100, TC +2 or over = $200), playing "ALL" hands = $3.74

So a 1-2 spread playing "ALL" hands will get a break even game (assuming a few bucks per hour lost due to errors). However, I don't think it would bring any heat to simply go from one table to the next (for any number of ploppy reasons) when the TC became greater than -1. Simply wonging earns you an extra ~$45/hour.

Yes as Drich said its more for getting time in. Max Rubin's strategies will be in effect, playing full tables, slowing the game to a crawl, and getting rated for as long as possible. Basically the name of the game is to earn more in goodies then my loss in EV.

Quote: djatc

Yes as Drich said its more for getting time in. Max Rubin's strategies will be in effect, playing full tables, slowing the game to a crawl, and getting rated for as long as possible. Basically the name of the game is to earn more in goodies then my loss in EV.

What spread are you leaning towards?

Quote: djatc

Yes as Drich said its more for getting time in. Max Rubin's strategies will be in effect, playing full tables, slowing the game to a crawl, and getting rated for as long as possible. Basically the name of the game is to earn more in goodies then my loss in EV.

I'm well aware that's what you're after. I guess it's my AP mind trying to maximize profits or something, but I don't see why you wouldn't run a 1-2 wong out TC -1 spread, or a 1-3 play all spread. Neither of those should get you any heat and should be a profitable game as well as logging time getting comps.

You obviously don't want to wong because you want the time... (even though in my opinion you can usually jump hop one table to the next within 30 seconds and not lose your time/rating). So for your specific situation I'd think to run the 1-3 spread and play "all" which would net you a little over $30/hour as well as get you your comps, at what I would think would be no heat.

But my greedy AP mind tries to squeeze every penny I can out of casino's =D.

Well its not for me but I have friends that are well off but not very smart gamblers and I want them to have a good time without giving up anything to the house. Of course I am not opposed to these strategies for myself in the future but I am not a big fan of table games, too much exposure.

Quote: djatc

Well its not for me but I have friends that are well off but not very smart gamblers and I want them to have a good time without giving up anything to the house. Of course I am not opposed to these strategies for myself in the future but I am not a big fan of table games, too much exposure.

Actually, that does change things. You should tell them to play the 1-3 spread then... Because they're probably going to be making a lot of errors and the extra money they give up with mistakes they will be protected with the 1-3 spread.

If they're not very smart gamblers are they going to use you to count and tell them how much to bet or something? How would they know how much to bet when anyways? NOTE: All the spreads we've been referring to are for counting, not "break even play" without card counting even. There is no spread that without counting will be break even or positive, in blackjack (baring hole carding, etc).

Quote: Romes

Actually, that does change things. You should tell them to play the 1-3 spread then... Because they're probably going to be making a lot of errors and the extra money they give up with mistakes they will be protected with the 1-3 spread.

If they're not very smart gamblers are they going to use you to count and tell them how much to bet or something? How would they know how much to bet when anyways? NOTE: All the spreads we've been referring to are for counting, not "break even play" without card counting even. There is no spread that without counting will be break even or positive, in blackjack (baring hole carding, etc).

Thanks Romes for the analysis. Basically they will have the information, and it's up to them to figure it out. Whatever happens they won't complain about not having a "system" since I broke it down for them.

Of course the next step will be explaining "expected loss" vs. "actual loss".

"I thought you said I wouldn't lose on this game! It's got no house edge so why am I down $5k?"

me "Well you can still lose due to variance. It's not going to be flat the entire time you could have a good run or bad run. Either way the house makes no money from you in the long run because there's no house edge."

"BUT I'M STILL DOWN 5K WTF MATE"

Interesting analysis Romes, but realistically you won't be able to sit out all counts < -1, unless you're constantly leaving games.

What would the results be if you're looking for a more reasonable rate of return (in the $100s / hour)?

Say, a 1-3 spread in yellow, or flags, but you have to play all.

I wonder if you would get heat for that type of play.

If I may jump in on your thread, dj...

Romes,

Do you mind running the numbers on this game: DD, 3/2, liberal rules regarding doubling and splitting. 1-10 spread ($10-$100). $10 on TC 0 or worse. $50 on TC 1-4. $100 on TC 5+.

a spread of 10 - 100, would that "generate heat"

1-10 would definitely generate heat in a pitch game. And it will very likely generate heat in a shoe game (at least in LV) if you're camping out.

Quote: richbailey86

a spread of 10 - 100, would that "generate heat"

Yes. I just don't care.

i asked because i plan to learn card counting this winter

i know there are several books that others have recommended to me on here

a spread of $10-$50 is generally safe right?

***NOTE: I show how to break down every aspect of your hourly EV, etc, in a spreadsheet you can play with/modify to test your spread/ramping in my A-Z card counting thread. It's really not too difficult to do and it can serve as a quick go to whenever you want to check the EV of a game/spread/etc. It would answer numerous questions in this thread alone to check it out =).

Quote: richbailey86

i asked because i plan to learn card counting this winter

i know there are several books that others have recommended to me on here

a spread of $10-$50 is generally safe right?

A 5-1 spread is very safe at shoe games, but you won't make much money at all, so there's really no point in that spread. At a 'good game' with 3:2 DA2 DAS S17 LS your 1-5 spread (assuming you spread TC <= 0 = $10, TC +1 = $30, TC +2 = $30, TC +3 and up = $50)... That's an hourly EV of $7.28344. Note, this also includes only playing down to TC -1 and wonging out! Oh, and this is also assuming FLAWLESS play - including indexes. It doesn't leave you any room for error, let alone you clearly aren't making any kind of worth your time money. If you're going to play shoe games, you really need to attack them much harder. If you can't afford to have a bigger 'big' bet, then you need to wong more. Try only wonging in at TC +2 or greater, and flat betting your big bet $50. That would get you up to $10.3426/hour. Ultimately, I wouldn't recommend trying to make a 1-5 spread work. I would save up for a bigger bankroll so your big bet could be a lot more. In my A-Z Card Counting thread, I give suggested spreads for attacking today's shoe games. Click my name, then threads, to find the thread.

Quote: Wanderer

If I may jump in on your thread, dj...

Romes,

Do you mind running the numbers on this game: DD, 3/2, liberal rules regarding doubling and splitting. 1-10 spread ($10-$100). $10 on TC 0 or worse. $50 on TC 1-4. $100 on TC 5+.

If you're running a 1-10 spread, as stated after your question that would get a lot of heat at single/double deck games. I personally don't think it would be a problem in shoe games unless, again as stated, you camp out and have sessions longer than 40 min to an hour (or unless a PB just hawks you from the moment you walk in, but unlikely).

Also, you state liberal double/splitting, but the other big question is S17, or surrender? You can have DA2, DAS, Split to 4 hands and you still wouldn't want to raise your bet until TC +2 if it was H17/No Surrender.

H17 ($50 on TC 2-4, $100 on TC 5+) = $12.4274/hour
S17 ($10 on TC -2 to 0, $50 on TC 1-4, $100 on TC 5+) = $23.976/hour

*Note: Neither of these are for counts greater than TC -2. These are also for double deck frequencies (where you see slightly greater variance in counts). As I posted earlier it's not hard to add in the EV for playing TC -3, -4, etc. Use my previous post as a guideline.

The problem with your spread, in my opinion is that you're breaking out your TC too late. I would get that $100 bet out at TC +4 or greater, again in my opinion.

When I play a blackjack game with smaller house advantages, like the OP mentioned, and am able to play a smaller spread, one of the things I most like to do to disguise my spread, is to spread both directions. Start off on the first hand with a wager 2 or 3 x minimum wager and spread down in negative counts as well as up during positive counts. For example, say the game was good enough (low enough house advantage) that I wanted to attack with a small 1-5 or 1-6 spread, (let's use quarters, which is not my actual bet level), I would start out with $50, or even $75 wager instead of $25 and spread up to $125 or $150 during good counts and down to $25 during negative. In my experience, this simple disguise buys some time as it takes several times through your spread in each direction to REALLY see your spread. By the time that happens, I have probably already moved on.

I am not a big cover type guy as cover has a cost. I would NEVER start with anything but the small wager in most of the six deck, mediocre games that I play, but with a really good game, like that described, you can afford a little bit of cost to buy you some extra time and not starting with your smallest wager is effective and worth the cost in these situations.

Quote: Romes

***NOTE: I show how to break down every aspect of your hourly EV, etc, in a spreadsheet you can play with/modify to test your spread/ramping in my A-Z card counting thread. It's really not too difficult to do and it can serve as a quick go to whenever you want to check the EV of a game/spread/etc. It would answer numerous questions in this thread alone to check it out =).


A 5-1 spread is very safe at shoe games, but you won't make much money at all, so there's really no point in that spread. At a 'good game' with 3:2 DA2 DAS S17 LS your 1-5 spread (assuming you spread TC <= 0 = $10, TC +1 = $30, TC +2 = $30, TC +3 and up = $50)... That's an hourly EV of $7.28344. Note, this also includes only playing down to TC -1 and wonging out! Oh, and this is also assuming FLAWLESS play - including indexes. It doesn't leave you any room for error, let alone you clearly aren't making any kind of worth your time money. If you're going to play shoe games, you really need to attack them much harder. If you can't afford to have a bigger 'big' bet, then you need to wong more. Try only wonging in at TC +2 or greater, and flat betting your big bet $50. That would get you up to $10.3426/hour. Ultimately, I wouldn't recommend trying to make a 1-5 spread work. I would save up for a bigger bankroll so your big bet could be a lot more. In my A-Z Card Counting thread, I give suggested spreads for attacking today's shoe games. Click my name, then threads, to find the thread.

ok, so then how do you guys play without heat if there needs to be a big spread

Quote: richbailey86

ok, so then how do you guys play without heat if there needs to be a big spread

The short answer is that you leave after showing your spread. You may or may not want to cash in your chips at that time. Hopefully you can finish the shoe.

It typically takes an hour of play or a little less for them to get a good look at you via a skills check.

Quote: richbailey86

ok, so then how do you guys play without heat if there needs to be a big spread

Well for one, I'm a red chipper, so that immediately helps attract less heat. It depends on the level you're playing, the number of decks in the game (as in general shops pay more attention to the double/single deck games), how sweaty the shop is known to be, etc.

If a place is really sweaty I would do just what 1BB said and hop out after showing your big bet. If this isn't an option (only place around you let's say) then perhaps a slightly smaller spread, wonging, cover plays, etc. kewlj also gave a good cover idea, but as he mentioned is more for good games where you can afford it.

Personally I like to do a little of everything, with emphasis on the things that don't cost me money to do. For one, I'm experienced enough to have multiple conversations with other players, dealers, PB's, etc, and still be able to count fine. The more friendly/outgoing you are, in my experiences, the less they seem to sweat you right out the gate. If a PB makes a joke when swiping my card in or something I'll play along with it, tell them a quick story, etc. Then they'll be trying to get away from the story telling guy at the $10 table and run off to another table or something, away from me =). Saying/doing ploppy things when the PB is around can be fun too, as the dumb one's agree with you, and the decent one's just roll their eyes and dismiss you. Now, this isn't 'awesome' cover or anything, but like I said I truly believe it's helped me in my experiences.

Another way to attack the problem is from the opposite perspective. If you were the casino, what would cause you to sweat someone and give them heat? Splitting 10's? Going to 2 hands? A huge obvious 1-50 spread? Then think of how you play now, and how your play could potentially be setting off alarms =).

Quote:

If you're running a 1-10 spread, as stated after your question that would get a lot of heat at single/double deck games.

I have been backed off at a DD table for playing a 1-5 spread, so I am aware of the likely heat. But really, I just don't care. I don't play enough to worry over getting backed off or banned. If it happens, it happens. So be it. I don't try to hide it.

Quote:

I personally don't think it would be a problem in shoe games unless, again as stated, you camp out and have sessions longer than 40 min to an hour (or unless a PB just hawks you from the moment you walk in, but unlikely).

I hate shoe games.

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Also, you state liberal double/splitting, but the other big question is S17, or surrender? You can have DA2, DAS, Split to 4 hands and you still wouldn't want to raise your bet until TC +2 if it was H17/No Surrender.

Stand on soft 17 but no surrender.

Quote:

The problem with your spread, in my opinion is that you're breaking out your TC too late. I would get that $100 bet out at TC +4 or greater, again in my opinion.

Thanks. So you'd go $10 TC 0/-, $50 TC 1-3, and $100 TC 4+?

Quote:

I am not a big cover type guy as cover has a cost.

This is one of my issues and one of the main reasons why I play a pretty obvious counting game. I just can't afford to use much cover.

Quote:

Another way to attack the problem is from the opposite perspective. If you were the casino, what would cause you to sweat someone and give them heat? Splitting 10's? Going to 2 hands? A huge obvious 1-50 spread? Then think of how you play now, and how your play could potentially be setting off alarms =).

I like to wear a t-shirt that has a basic strategy chart on the front and then as soon as I sit down at the table give the Eye in the Sky the double bird. Think that might be one of my problems....? ;)

Quote: Wanderer

I like to wear a t-shirt that has a basic strategy chart on the front and then as soon as I sit down at the table give the Eye in the Sky the double bird. Think that might be one of my problems....? ;)

lol... You might also want to bring an Illustrious 18 strategy card, then confirm with the PB if you hit a scenario not on there that he'll give you the proper advice ;).