Wizard
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Wizard
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August 10th, 2014 at 10:17:25 PM permalink
If you listen to dealers you'll come away with the impression that Ed Thorp created the basic strategy back in the sixties on an ancient computer. He must have made a mistake somewhere because you can see every day players who go by the book lose and players who don't win. Naturally, blackjack writers since then are a lazy bunch who have just been repeating Thorp's work and never bothering to do any new research on the game or verify his.

In an effort do debunk these myths I make a video of me creating the basic strategy, assuming an infinite deck, starting with just a blank spreadsheet. Of course the skeptic will argue that I must have made the same error Thorp did somewhere. I expect to change nobody's mind, but you never know what my readers will take a liking to.

As always, I welcome all comments, questions, and corrections.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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August 10th, 2014 at 10:36:55 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

If you listen to dealers you'll come away with the impression that Ed Thorp created the basic strategy back in the sixties on an ancient computer. He must have made a mistake somewhere because you can see every day players who go by the book lose and players who don't win. Naturally, blackjack writers since then are a lazy bunch who have just been repeating Thorp's work and never bothering to do any new research on the game or verify his.

In an effort do debunk these myths I make a video of me creating the basic strategy, assuming an infinite deck, starting with just a blank spreadsheet. Of course the skeptic will argue that I must have made the same error Thorp did somewhere. I expect to change nobody's mind, but you never know what my readers will take a liking to.

As always, I welcome all comments, questions, and corrections.

I congratulate you for saying "its a game of LUCK" I know it's technically variance however most people just say luck, Even most real AP's. I think writers and other notable people try to use the word variance at times to discourage the superstitious aspects of people who don't grasp how thing really work when it comes to gambling.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
andysif
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August 10th, 2014 at 11:20:34 PM permalink
wow. never thought this could be done on a spread sheet. thought you need at least Java or visual basic.
kewlj
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August 11th, 2014 at 12:13:54 AM permalink
Ahh...good. The wheel....re-invented. :)

If your purpose is to 'debunk' dealers who give out false info, like "you should stand on 12 vs 3", you can now present them a copy of this video. Then come back tomorrow and watch them tell a player that he should stand on his 12 vs dealer 3. Lol.

It's not that the information isn't available to them, it's that they don't want to believe it. You can lead a horse to water........
I really hope your efforts do make them want to drink the water, but I wouldn't count on it.

I was glad to hear your mention of the 4 horsemen, as I think they have been lost in the shuffle and never gotten the recognition they deserved. They actually did publish their version of basic strategy, which did contain a couple mistakes in a book, "playing blackjack to win", 5 years before Thorp's Beat the Dealer was published, but it was Thorp's book that took the BJ world by storm. I guess the real question is who might have come up with a similar version of basic strategy even earlier, but kept it to themselves?
andysif
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August 11th, 2014 at 12:37:15 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Ahh...good. The wheel....re-invented. :)

If your purpose is to 'debunk' dealers who give out false info, like "you should stand on 12 vs 3", you can now present them a copy of this video. Then come back tomorrow and watch them tell a player that he should stand on his 12 vs dealer 3. Lol.

It's not that the information isn't available to them, it's that they don't want to believe it. You can lead a horse to water........
I really hope your efforts do make them want to drink the water, but I wouldn't count on it.

I was glad to hear your mention of the 4 horsemen, as I think they have been lost in the shuffle and never gotten the recognition they deserved. They actually did publish their version of basic strategy, which did contain a couple mistakes in a book, "playing blackjack to win", 5 years before Thorp's Beat the Dealer was published, but it was Thorp's book that took the BJ world by storm. I guess the real question is who might have come up with a similar version of basic strategy even earlier, but kept it to themselves?


Does it sound familiar:
"If they had a winning system, why would they sell it to you? They would be busting the casino"
Wizard
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August 11th, 2014 at 4:51:26 AM permalink
Quote:

I congratulate you for saying "its a game of LUCK" I know it's technically variance however most people just say luck, Even most real AP's. I think writers and other notable people try to use the word variance at times to discourage the superstitious aspects of people who don't grasp how thing really work when it comes to gambling.



To be honest, I try to avoid using that word too when speaking/writing about gambling, but it just slipped out. As you wrote, I'm worried it will get interpreted in a superstitious way.

Quote: kewlj

Ahh...good. The wheel....re-invented. :)

If your purpose is to 'debunk' dealers who give out false info, like "you should stand on 12 vs 3", you can now present them a copy of this video. Then come back tomorrow and watch them tell a player that he should stand on his 12 vs dealer 3. Lol.



Yeah, I'm sure it will convince nobody. As I said in the video, and many times here, the more ridiculous a belief it, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.

Quote:

I was glad to hear your mention of the 4 horsemen, as I think they have been lost in the shuffle and never gotten the recognition they deserved. They actually did publish their version of basic strategy, which did contain a couple mistakes in a book, "playing blackjack to win", 5 years before Thorp's Beat the Dealer was published, but it was Thorp's book that took the BJ world by storm. I guess the real question is who might have come up with a similar version of basic strategy even earlier, but kept it to themselves?



Thanks for noticing that. I agree that they don't get enough credit. To be honest, I never knew they wrote a book. I thought it ended with that paper they wrote for the American Statistical Association. Thank you for correcting me.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
odiousgambit
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August 11th, 2014 at 6:19:11 AM permalink
Totally amazing that you were able to do that.

Genius is often the right word for Michael Shackleford, and this is one of those times IMO. Yes, a host of other people can do the math, but it is pure genius to show that with computers the math can be shown in a matter of minutes.

Also shows a familiarity with Excel that goes back a few hours or so methinks. Like a lifetime no doubt.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Wizard
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August 12th, 2014 at 6:56:28 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Totally amazing that you were able to do that.

Genius is often the right word for Michael Shackleford, and this is one of those times IMO. Yes, a host of other people can do the math, but it is pure genius to show that with computers the math can be shown in a matter of minutes.

Also shows a familiarity with Excel that goes back a few hours or so methinks. Like a lifetime no doubt.



Thank you for all the kind words! Flattery will get you everywhere.

In other news, I just added part two where I take the spreadsheet from part one and calculate the house edge to the overall game.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Paigowdan
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August 12th, 2014 at 9:15:24 AM permalink
Mike,
This is REALLY great, awesome!

It totally demystifies, and clearly explains the machinery of Blackjack. A really good gift to the gambling world.

[Mike: "I have so much (math knowledge) to give!"] Ya do.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
AcesAndEights
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August 12th, 2014 at 11:09:25 AM permalink
I haven't had the time to watch the video yet, but I think it's a great idea! I'll try to watch it tonight.

Question: how much harder would it have been to do the analysis for 6 decks, or 2? The only problem I see with this video "convincing" anyone (not that you should be that worried about it anyway) is that someone (read: Buzz) will say "infinite decks, huh? Where can I can I find THAT game offered!"
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Dieter
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August 12th, 2014 at 12:02:25 PM permalink
Is there a convenient link to the spreadsheet? I know there was a mention of you posting the file...
May the cards fall in your favor.
tringlomane
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August 12th, 2014 at 12:08:04 PM permalink
Card removal makes probabilities messier. Not worth it for those with a casual interest.

It was well done Mike! I've seen these spread sheets before and I had got bogged down in details, but the video makes it much clearer!
Dieter
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August 12th, 2014 at 12:26:57 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Question: how much harder would it have been to do the analysis for 6 decks, or 2?



It's nontrivial.

It's "just" generating a composition dependent strategy chart for the appropriate number of decks, then combining all the ways to make each hand into a total dependent strategy chart.

It's probably somewhat easier to make an infinite deck H17 chart than to make a 6 deck S17 chart.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Wizard
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August 12th, 2014 at 12:33:28 PM permalink
Quote:

Question: how much harder would it have been to do the analysis for 6 decks, or 2?



Quite. I would need to teach a course in recursive computer programming.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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August 12th, 2014 at 1:36:05 PM permalink
Here is a link to the actual spreadsheet: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2R98Qfvr8GldVlUZVJFeHVLZ1U/edit?usp=sharing.

If anybody could attempt to download it, please let me know if it worked.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
tringlomane
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August 12th, 2014 at 1:50:35 PM permalink
Worked for me.
Dieter
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August 12th, 2014 at 1:55:07 PM permalink
I was able to download it, and it seems to display OK in LibreOffice 3.

Google Drive seems to want to display it by default, and that display is... suboptimal.

Thanks for the link.


(The most interesting thing I see so far is on the split page, cells G10 & G24.)
May the cards fall in your favor.
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