Creating the blackjack basic strategy video
In an effort do debunk these myths I make a video of me creating the basic strategy, assuming an infinite deck, starting with just a blank spreadsheet. Of course the skeptic will argue that I must have made the same error Thorp did somewhere. I expect to change nobody's mind, but you never know what my readers will take a liking to.
As always, I welcome all comments, questions, and corrections.
I congratulate you for saying "its a game of LUCK" I know it's technically variance however most people just say luck, Even most real AP's. I think writers and other notable people try to use the word variance at times to discourage the superstitious aspects of people who don't grasp how thing really work when it comes to gambling.Quote: WizardIf you listen to dealers you'll come away with the impression that Ed Thorp created the basic strategy back in the sixties on an ancient computer. He must have made a mistake somewhere because you can see every day players who go by the book lose and players who don't win. Naturally, blackjack writers since then are a lazy bunch who have just been repeating Thorp's work and never bothering to do any new research on the game or verify his.
In an effort do debunk these myths I make a video of me creating the basic strategy, assuming an infinite deck, starting with just a blank spreadsheet. Of course the skeptic will argue that I must have made the same error Thorp did somewhere. I expect to change nobody's mind, but you never know what my readers will take a liking to.
As always, I welcome all comments, questions, and corrections.
If your purpose is to 'debunk' dealers who give out false info, like "you should stand on 12 vs 3", you can now present them a copy of this video. Then come back tomorrow and watch them tell a player that he should stand on his 12 vs dealer 3. Lol.
It's not that the information isn't available to them, it's that they don't want to believe it. You can lead a horse to water........
I really hope your efforts do make them want to drink the water, but I wouldn't count on it.
I was glad to hear your mention of the 4 horsemen, as I think they have been lost in the shuffle and never gotten the recognition they deserved. They actually did publish their version of basic strategy, which did contain a couple mistakes in a book, "playing blackjack to win", 5 years before Thorp's Beat the Dealer was published, but it was Thorp's book that took the BJ world by storm. I guess the real question is who might have come up with a similar version of basic strategy even earlier, but kept it to themselves?
Quote: kewljAhh...good. The wheel....re-invented. :)
If your purpose is to 'debunk' dealers who give out false info, like "you should stand on 12 vs 3", you can now present them a copy of this video. Then come back tomorrow and watch them tell a player that he should stand on his 12 vs dealer 3. Lol.
It's not that the information isn't available to them, it's that they don't want to believe it. You can lead a horse to water........
I really hope your efforts do make them want to drink the water, but I wouldn't count on it.
I was glad to hear your mention of the 4 horsemen, as I think they have been lost in the shuffle and never gotten the recognition they deserved. They actually did publish their version of basic strategy, which did contain a couple mistakes in a book, "playing blackjack to win", 5 years before Thorp's Beat the Dealer was published, but it was Thorp's book that took the BJ world by storm. I guess the real question is who might have come up with a similar version of basic strategy even earlier, but kept it to themselves?
Does it sound familiar:
"If they had a winning system, why would they sell it to you? They would be busting the casino"
Quote:I congratulate you for saying "its a game of LUCK" I know it's technically variance however most people just say luck, Even most real AP's. I think writers and other notable people try to use the word variance at times to discourage the superstitious aspects of people who don't grasp how thing really work when it comes to gambling.
To be honest, I try to avoid using that word too when speaking/writing about gambling, but it just slipped out. As you wrote, I'm worried it will get interpreted in a superstitious way.
Quote: kewljAhh...good. The wheel....re-invented. :)
If your purpose is to 'debunk' dealers who give out false info, like "you should stand on 12 vs 3", you can now present them a copy of this video. Then come back tomorrow and watch them tell a player that he should stand on his 12 vs dealer 3. Lol.
Yeah, I'm sure it will convince nobody. As I said in the video, and many times here, the more ridiculous a belief it, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.
Quote:I was glad to hear your mention of the 4 horsemen, as I think they have been lost in the shuffle and never gotten the recognition they deserved. They actually did publish their version of basic strategy, which did contain a couple mistakes in a book, "playing blackjack to win", 5 years before Thorp's Beat the Dealer was published, but it was Thorp's book that took the BJ world by storm. I guess the real question is who might have come up with a similar version of basic strategy even earlier, but kept it to themselves?
Thanks for noticing that. I agree that they don't get enough credit. To be honest, I never knew they wrote a book. I thought it ended with that paper they wrote for the American Statistical Association. Thank you for correcting me.
Genius is often the right word for Michael Shackleford, and this is one of those times IMO. Yes, a host of other people can do the math, but it is pure genius to show that with computers the math can be shown in a matter of minutes.
Also shows a familiarity with Excel that goes back a few hours or so methinks. Like a lifetime no doubt.
Quote: odiousgambitTotally amazing that you were able to do that.
Genius is often the right word for Michael Shackleford, and this is one of those times IMO. Yes, a host of other people can do the math, but it is pure genius to show that with computers the math can be shown in a matter of minutes.
Also shows a familiarity with Excel that goes back a few hours or so methinks. Like a lifetime no doubt.
Thank you for all the kind words! Flattery will get you everywhere.
In other news, I just added part two where I take the spreadsheet from part one and calculate the house edge to the overall game.
This is REALLY great, awesome!
It totally demystifies, and clearly explains the machinery of Blackjack. A really good gift to the gambling world.
[Mike: "I have so much (math knowledge) to give!"] Ya do.
Question: how much harder would it have been to do the analysis for 6 decks, or 2? The only problem I see with this video "convincing" anyone (not that you should be that worried about it anyway) is that someone (read: Buzz) will say "infinite decks, huh? Where can I can I find THAT game offered!"
It was well done Mike! I've seen these spread sheets before and I had got bogged down in details, but the video makes it much clearer!
Quote: AcesAndEightsQuestion: how much harder would it have been to do the analysis for 6 decks, or 2?
It's nontrivial.
It's "just" generating a composition dependent strategy chart for the appropriate number of decks, then combining all the ways to make each hand into a total dependent strategy chart.
It's probably somewhat easier to make an infinite deck H17 chart than to make a 6 deck S17 chart.
Quote:Question: how much harder would it have been to do the analysis for 6 decks, or 2?
Quite. I would need to teach a course in recursive computer programming.
If anybody could attempt to download it, please let me know if it worked.
Google Drive seems to want to display it by default, and that display is... suboptimal.
Thanks for the link.
(The most interesting thing I see so far is on the split page, cells G10 & G24.)
