Bankroll

Hello estimated forum members!
I have been a member of this forum for almost four years. I normally do not share too much, feeling that my experience doesn't add much to the group. Well, this period was of great learning about blackjack. Firstly, through this board I was encouraged to learn and later master basic strategy. After two years or so (9 casino trips, luckly and slightly up ahead) I decided to endure the path of a beginner AP. I tried the HiLo count and couldn't keep up the pace with the crowded table, and etc. After that I gave a shot at Wiz Ace/Five count.
Now I'll take time to share the game rules and spreads I've been playing:

$10-60 spread. Usually take U$1k to the casino/trip.
6D, DAS, S17, No surrender. The Wiz estimates the HE at .5%

What I have experimented at my last four trips confirmed what the Wizard says about basically using this count to break even or getting a little ahead. The following are my results:

1) -$600,00
2) +$800,00
3) +$1.500,00
4) -$1000,00 (busted pressing bets, betting black)

These were accomplished during 3 day trips, playing about 5h/day. It's roughly $11,66/hour (plus modest comps like some burgers, fries, 25% off rooms), which do not cover my travel costs since I have to go overseas to gamble. Now I have been practicing the Hi/Lo count again, and I am getting signs of improvement. I try to count with my brother dealing me, and holding a conversation. The cancelation method, explained by some members here really is making it easier. The 27th I'll be going to the casino again. I think I might step up and try $10-$80 spread with the rules mentioned before. What do you guys think that I can take out of it in case I succeed? Furthermore, how can I stipulate a margin of security and from that determine the size of my bankroll?
All advice is appreciated.

Thanks in advance!

What's the penetration? Are you planning on wonging in or out?

1BB, penetration is about 80%. I am not planning on wonging out, except if the TC gets really nasty.
Thanks i advance!

In shoe games, you should really wong out as much as you can get away with on negative counts.

Also, your results over this short of a period of time are irrelevant. Don't assume that you are beating the game just because you are up a little over a few hours. You might be, but you also might not be. Your spread is tiny, your count is weak, and you are not leaving on bad counts. You probably don't have an edge. At least the rules are good.

When you say that you can't keep up with hi-lo, is it because you can't keep the running count, or you can't do the TC conversion? If you can't do the TC conversion, you could switch to something like KO. If you can't keep the running count, I'd suggest practicing a little bit. It's strange that you say that you can't keep up at a full table, since it's usually easier at a full table since the game moves so slowly.

It's not possible to estimate how much of a bankroll you need without knowing your edge. People use rules of thumb like "300 max bets" or whatever but these don't really mean anything. Wonging out on bad counts and using a better count will both reduce your swings and increase your edge, which both have the effect of reducing your required bankroll.

This has to be simmed by someone with the appropriate software. Many factors must be considered including hands per hour, number of players at the table, rules and penetration.

Without wonging and without knowing all the specifics, I'm going to make a general guess that a 1-8 spread on this game will be a break even to a slightly profitable situation, certainly nothing that you'll make a living at. Wonging will improve that and I strongly recommend it. It should be part of your strategy along with index play.

Wonging or not, I recommend a 1-16 spread for this game and maybe a trip bankroll of at least $5K. Your bankroll requirements should also be simmed as one size or one situation does not fit all.

I wish I could nail it down in a neat package for you but I can't. Let's take a look at two $10 flat bettors. One plays a full table and gets 60 hands per hour and the other plays heads up and gets 200 hands per hour. That's over three times the money per hour.

You may be interested in purchasing simulation and or practice software. It is worth it if you get the right one.

Quote: 1BB

Without wonging and without knowing all the specifics, I'm going to make a general guess that a 1-8 spread on this game will be a break even to a slightly profitable situation,

Maybe with a more powerful count. Remember that he is using Ace-5.

I'm also going to guess that he is making some basic strategy errors (almost everyone does).

To the OP: Are you using real basic strategy, or the Wizard's simplified version? Pop quiz: Without looking it up, what do you do when you have 12 and the dealer is showing a 3? What do you do when you are dealt A,7 and the dealer has a 4? What do you do when you have A,7 and the dealer has a 10? What do you do when you have 9,9 and the dealer has an 7? 9,9 vs 8? 9,9 vs 9?

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Maybe with a more powerful count. Remember that he is using Ace-5.

I'm also going to guess that he is making some basic strategy errors (almost everyone does).

To the OP: Are you using real basic strategy, or the Wizard's simplified version? Pop quiz: Without looking it up, what do you do when you have 12 and the dealer is showing a 3? What do you do when you are dealt A,7 and the dealer has a 4? What do you do when you have A,7 and the dealer has a 10? What do you do when you have 9,9 and the dealer has an 7? 9,9 vs 8? 9,9 vs 9?

I'm not the OP but I'll play - and I am *very* new to BJ strategy, so don't be too harsh if I blow it miserably:

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Maybe with a more powerful count. Remember that he is using Ace-5.

I'm also going to guess that he is making some basic strategy errors (almost everyone does).

To the OP: Are you using real basic strategy, or the Wizard's simplified version? Pop quiz: Without looking it up, what do you do when you have 12 and the dealer is showing a 3? What do you do when you are dealt A,7 and the dealer has a 4? What do you do when you have A,7 and the dealer has a 10? What do you do when you have 9,9 and the dealer has an 7? 9,9 vs 8? 9,9 vs 9?

I was basing it on Hi-Lo. He said in his last paragraph that he was going to try it. No index play with Ace-5 as far as I know.

Quote: TerribleTom

I'm not the OP but I'll play - and I am *very* new to BJ strategy, so don't be too harsh if I blow it miserably:

Show Spoiler

On a table with the rules from the OP - 6D, DAS, S17, No surrender.
12 v 3 = stand
A,7 v 4 = double
A,7 v 10 = hit

I'd split the 9,9 vs 7/8/9 but I'd be tempted to stand vs. 7/8. I'll readily admit that knowing when to split is the weakest part of my BJ strategy knowledge.

You're 4 for 6, Tom. See me after class. :-)

Quote: 1BB

Quote: TerribleTom

I'm not the OP but I'll play - and I am *very* new to BJ strategy, so don't be too harsh if I blow it miserably:

Show Spoiler

On a table with the rules from the OP - 6D, DAS, S17, No surrender.
12 v 3 = stand
A,7 v 4 = double
A,7 v 10 = hit

I'd split the 9,9 vs 7/8/9 but I'd be tempted to stand vs. 7/8. I'll readily admit that knowing when to split is the weakest part of my BJ strategy knowledge.

You're 4 for 6, Tom. See me after class. :-)

2 out of 3 ain't bad?

deleted

Quote: RS

Show Spoiler

stand 99v7, split 99v8,9. Hit 12v3. Double a7v4. Hit a7vT

This is the same that I came up with.

However, if you want to really WIN BIG you must Drink as much as possible then double on everything and split everything. Wake up in room with and extra 2k in your pocket.

1BB is right. This time I am willing to try HiLo again. My problem was never converting to TC, but keeping the count. Now, I've practiced a lot more and using the cancelation method things seen a lot easier. The game is pretty slow. There's only 2 blackjack tables at the casino, then I'd say it's about 60hands per hour at max. Max bet is U$100, so the biggest spread would be 1-10. I can afford losing U$3k. No more than that right now. You guys are being really supportive. Thanks!

My answers are: