Actuarial Learns to Count v2.0
Quote: Actuarial
I wanted to make a centralized place to document my beginnings of a card counter, and hopefully add my rise through the ranks and stakes. Input/criticism/advice is welcome.
Background on me: I am an actuary in his mid-20s who recently moved from Texas to the Midwest. I have always been interested in counting cards, but the 50 cent rake in the Oklahoma casinos seemed prohibitive in netting a positive return. Now I'm about 10 minutes away from the nearest blackjack table, where the house rules offer a game with a 0.64% house edge (6 deck, H17, DAS, DA2, No RSA, No LS). My goal is not to do this professionally; currently it is simply a hobby to do as a break between studying for exams.
After about two weeks of learning the hi-lo counting system, practicing with the Advantage Blackjack app on my phone and Casino Verite on my PC, I decided I was ready to try my skills in a real game. My plan is to start out with a $5 min - $50 max, with a rather undefined bankroll. My strategy on bet ramping is also rather undefined right now... generally I'll start ramping up at TC 1, and progress upwards as long as the count stays positive.
Day 1 - 05/04/2014:
I started my first shoe with one other person, and the negative variance did not take long to manifest. While the shoe was overall mediocre, the most notable occurrences are that I was dealt exactly three blackjacks, all three of which pushed with the dealer also having blackjack. The count was negative for most of the shoe, leading me to $5 flat bet the entire thing.
I'll go ahead and interject here with my first counting issue... I can't seem to figure out what the optimal order is to count the cards. Do I count them one by one as they come out of the shoe.... do I count them in groups of 2... or perhaps wait until the dealer is finished dealing the starting hands to survey the battlefield? I finally decided upon a strategy of counting all of the first cards dealt to the players, then all of the second cards dealt to the players, then one by one as players hit, and then finally counting the dealer's hand. I kept running into issues of not remembering whether I had already factored in the dealer's up card in my count... and sometimes even forgetting which card was the up card when the dealer turned over his hand. Comments on this are welcome.
My second shoe saw my first ramped up bet. I went up to $10 for maybe 4-5 hands, with no notable hands to comment on.
The next several shoes I was noting a pattern. It seemed that the shoe would instantly go negative, and then the rest of the shoe would be spent trying to go back into the positive. I'm sure this was just coincidence, but it was a bit frustrating when I didn't get to up my bets. One of the shoes, about two decks in, I had a running count of -22, for a TC of about -5. I thought about wonging out, but I hadn't figured that into my strategy enough to act on it. It may have been confirmation bias, but I did feel as though the dealer could not bust.
My first high count occurred after about 3 hours of play (for some reason, $5 min-betting wasn't attracting any heat). The running count had been hovering around -5 for most of the shoe. Then, about 3 decks in, the count skyrocketed. I remember there were 5 hands being dealt among 4 people, and in two successive hands we went from around -2 all the way up to +8, for a TC around 3. I immediately ramped up to $15, and after another hand or two the TC was all the way up to 4! I upped my bet to $30, but was disappointed to see my 20 lose to a dealer's blackjack. I kept my bet at $30, this time losing my dealt 18 to the dealer's 19. As the count was dropping, I dropped down to $15 with a TC around 1.5. The 10s kept coming, but unfortunately they were on the wrong side of the felt. Still, it felt amazing when the 10s starting pouring out from the shoe, some murky confirmation that my counting was actually working.
My results for the day:
Played for 4 hours
Min bet: $5
Max bet: $30
Dealer Tips: $2.50
Net Winnings: -$240
Definitely a bit frustrating on the first day. It seems like I couldn't win a double, split, or high $ bet to save my life. I've made notes that I need to decide on how best to count the cards, and possibly consider upping my spread. Most people are betting more than $5 per hand, and I felt like that contributed to me receiving no heat for a 6:1 spread.
I also noted something interesting... If you wager with a $2.50 chip and get a blackjack, they give you $4. I confirmed this with the dealer - he said it was the only time they ever round up on the payouts. Given that the minimum wager is $5, I'm assuming this would only start to apply at bets of $7.50.... but instead of $11.25 on blackjack you would get $11.50. I don't have the blackjack hand frequency up next to me, but I'm assuming that would be worth an extra hundredths of a percent, which would of course increase along with the count (relative to average wager).
Dear Actuarial,
Please forgive the banter and forum-arguments on the thread you just started. Sometimes, threads get hijacked but I promise you that it doesn't happen all too often. Now let's get to what you wanted / needed to hear.
I echo the sentiment that what you experienced is typical, if on the negative side of things. You already know and understand that. My comment is - don't let it discourage you. In fact, way to go and bet large when the good cards were coming out! At the end of the day, the big bet should not be an expectation of a win, but an expectation of a string of 10s coming out, and you succeeded in that. Yes, you have to suffer if you get the odd 6 that is mixed between them. But that's the game. Dealers beating you by a single point, dealer BJ on your 20, etc. That is the definition of negative variance.
My advice is keep working at it the way you've already done. Try to find empty tables and play 1v1. It's a much more intense game, but I understand that it's sometimes difficult to find. I was scared of 1v1 until 1BB told me I was being stupid about it. I'm very grateful for that. 1v1 means more hands per hour, higher likelihood of being dealt high cards with a high count (as opposed to others who may be sitting upstream of you), and just in general, a higher occurrence of interesting counts. Try spreading 1-10 ($5-50) then 1-3 ($25-75), and see what you like better. I've had much, much more success with 1-3 with a higher min bet, though I am not yet at a statistically significant point to draw a definite conclusion.
As for bankroll, you will hear all sorts of advice. Trip (< 48h) bankroll of 100 min-bets is a little conservative but definitely survivable, especially with the smaller spread. The key in the beginning - and I learned this the hard way - is to experience the full range of emotions and analyze them post-facto with a completely rational mindset before playing at higher stakes. How do you behave on positive streaks? how about negative streaks? do you go through BJ tilt and start chasing losses? Do your insides start pumping when you have a $50 bet down, or can you toss that aside without a second thought? Do you get pissed if the dealer draws a 7-card 21, or do you get excited?
The best advice I can give the op is to read all of KewlJ's posts. He's out there in the trenches day after day. He knows of what he speaks.
Quote: arcticfun
My advice is keep working at it the way you've already done. Try to find empty tables and play 1v1. It's a much more intense game, but I understand that it's sometimes difficult to find. I was scared of 1v1 until 1BB told me I was being stupid about it. I'm very grateful for that. 1v1 means more hands per hour, higher likelihood of being dealt high cards with a high count (as opposed to others who may be sitting upstream of you), and just in general, a higher occurrence of interesting counts. Try spreading 1-10 ($5-50) then 1-3 ($25-75), and see what you like better. I've had much, much more success with 1-3 with a higher min bet, though I am not yet at a statistically significant point to draw a definite conclusion.
I can give you a statistically significant conclusion. Spreading a smaller range with a higher minimum bet decreases the EV of play while increasing the risk of ruin. That's what the math says.
Now if you add in some wonging out of negative counts, you can move towards a break even game, or maybe even just slightly positive, but as Geoff said, you are playing with big risk and variance to get there. That's fine for a recreational player, who is happy to play break even and get some comps, but if you are trying to make any kind of money, even small money, you need a bigger spread. The generally accepted rule of shoe games (6 & 8 deck) is that you should spread 2x number of decks in play for a reasonable return. That's just a guideline, but 1-3 just isn't going to get it done without aggressive wonging.
Quote: arcticfunDear Actuarial,
Please forgive the banter and forum-arguments on the thread you just started. Sometimes, threads get hijacked but I promise you that it doesn't happen all too often. Now let's get to what you wanted / needed to hear.
I echo the sentiment that what you experienced is typical, if on the negative side of things. You already know and understand that. My comment is - don't let it discourage you. In fact, way to go and bet large when the good cards were coming out! At the end of the day, the big bet should not be an expectation of a win, but an expectation of a string of 10s coming out, and you succeeded in that. Yes, you have to suffer if you get the odd 6 that is mixed between them. But that's the game. Dealers beating you by a single point, dealer BJ on your 20, etc. That is the definition of negative variance.
My advice is keep working at it the way you've already done. Try to find empty tables and play 1v1. It's a much more intense game, but I understand that it's sometimes difficult to find. I was scared of 1v1 until 1BB told me I was being stupid about it. I'm very grateful for that. 1v1 means more hands per hour, higher likelihood of being dealt high cards with a high count (as opposed to others who may be sitting upstream of you), and just in general, a higher occurrence of interesting counts. Try spreading 1-10 ($5-50) then 1-3 ($25-75), and see what you like better. I've had much, much more success with 1-3 with a higher min bet, though I am not yet at a statistically significant point to draw a definite conclusion.
As for bankroll, you will hear all sorts of advice. Trip (< 48h) bankroll of 100 min-bets is a little conservative but definitely survivable, especially with the smaller spread. The key in the beginning - and I learned this the hard way - is to experience the full range of emotions and analyze them post-facto with a completely rational mindset before playing at higher stakes. How do you behave on positive streaks? how about negative streaks? do you go through BJ tilt and start chasing losses? Do your insides start pumping when you have a $50 bet down, or can you toss that aside without a second thought? Do you get pissed if the dealer draws a 7-card 21, or do you get excited?
Why would you advise him to play 25-75 instead of 5-30? That is ludicrous. I would generally advise against newbies putting out large bets while purposely decreasing their statistical advantage.
