Actuarial Learns to Count
Background on me: I am an actuary in his mid-20s who recently moved from Texas to the Midwest. I have always been interested in counting cards, but the 50 cent rake in the Oklahoma casinos seemed prohibitive in netting a positive return. Now I'm about 10 minutes away from the nearest blackjack table, where the house rules offer a game with a 0.64% house edge (6 deck, H17, DAS, DA2, No RSA, No LS). My goal is not to do this professionally; currently it is simply a hobby to do as a break between studying for exams.
After about two weeks of learning the hi-lo counting system, practicing with the Advantage Blackjack app on my phone and Casino Verite on my PC, I decided I was ready to try my skills in a real game. My plan is to start out with a $5 min - $50 max, with a rather undefined bankroll. My strategy on bet ramping is also rather undefined right now... generally I'll start ramping up at TC 1, and progress upwards as long as the count stays positive.
Day 1 - 05/04/2014:
I started my first shoe with one other person, and the negative variance did not take long to manifest. While the shoe was overall mediocre, the most notable occurrences are that I was dealt exactly three blackjacks, all three of which pushed with the dealer also having blackjack. The count was negative for most of the shoe, leading me to $5 flat bet the entire thing.
I'll go ahead and interject here with my first counting issue... I can't seem to figure out what the optimal order is to count the cards. Do I count them one by one as they come out of the shoe.... do I count them in groups of 2... or perhaps wait until the dealer is finished dealing the starting hands to survey the battlefield? I finally decided upon a strategy of counting all of the first cards dealt to the players, then all of the second cards dealt to the players, then one by one as players hit, and then finally counting the dealer's hand. I kept running into issues of not remembering whether I had already factored in the dealer's up card in my count... and sometimes even forgetting which card was the up card when the dealer turned over his hand. Comments on this are welcome.
My second shoe saw my first ramped up bet. I went up to $10 for maybe 4-5 hands, with no notable hands to comment on.
The next several shoes I was noting a pattern. It seemed that the shoe would instantly go negative, and then the rest of the shoe would be spent trying to go back into the positive. I'm sure this was just coincidence, but it was a bit frustrating when I didn't get to up my bets. One of the shoes, about two decks in, I had a running count of -22, for a TC of about -5. I thought about wonging out, but I hadn't figured that into my strategy enough to act on it. It may have been confirmation bias, but I did feel as though the dealer could not bust.
My first high count occurred after about 3 hours of play (for some reason, $5 min-betting wasn't attracting any heat). The running count had been hovering around -5 for most of the shoe. Then, about 3 decks in, the count skyrocketed. I remember there were 5 hands being dealt among 4 people, and in two successive hands we went from around -2 all the way up to +8, for a TC around 3. I immediately ramped up to $15, and after another hand or two the TC was all the way up to 4! I upped my bet to $30, but was disappointed to see my 20 lose to a dealer's blackjack. I kept my bet at $30, this time losing my dealt 18 to the dealer's 19. As the count was dropping, I dropped down to $15 with a TC around 1.5. The 10s kept coming, but unfortunately they were on the wrong side of the felt. Still, it felt amazing when the 10s starting pouring out from the shoe, some murky confirmation that my counting was actually working.
My results for the day:
Played for 4 hours
Min bet: $5
Max bet: $30
Dealer Tips: $2.50
Net Winnings: -$240
Definitely a bit frustrating on the first day. It seems like I couldn't win a double, split, or high $ bet to save my life. I've made notes that I need to decide on how best to count the cards, and possibly consider upping my spread. Most people are betting more than $5 per hand, and I felt like that contributed to me receiving no heat for a 6:1 spread.
I also noted something interesting... If you wager with a $2.50 chip and get a blackjack, they give you $4. I confirmed this with the dealer - he said it was the only time they ever round up on the payouts. Given that the minimum wager is $5, I'm assuming this would only start to apply at bets of $7.50.... but instead of $11.25 on blackjack you would get $11.50. I don't have the blackjack hand frequency up next to me, but I'm assuming that would be worth an extra hundredths of a percent, which would of course increase along with the count (relative to average wager).
Quote: ActuarialI wanted to make a centralized place to document my beginnings of a card counter, and hopefully add my rise through the ranks and stakes. Input/criticism/advice is welcome.
Background on me: I am an actuary in his mid-20s who recently moved from Texas to the Midwest. I have always been interested in counting cards, but the 50 cent rake in the Oklahoma casinos seemed prohibitive in netting a positive return. Now I'm about 10 minutes away from the nearest blackjack table, where the house rules offer a game with a 0.64% house edge (6 deck, H17, DAS, DA2, No RSA, No LS). My goal is not to do this professionally; currently it is simply a hobby to do as a break between studying for exams.
After about two weeks of learning the hi-lo counting system, practicing with the Advantage Blackjack app on my phone and Casino Verite on my PC, I decided I was ready to try my skills in a real game. My plan is to start out with a $5 min - $50 max, with a rather undefined bankroll. My strategy on bet ramping is also rather undefined right now... generally I'll start ramping up at TC 1, and progress upwards as long as the count stays positive.
Day 1 - 05/04/2014:
I started my first shoe with one other person, and the negative variance did not take long to manifest. While the shoe was overall mediocre, the most notable occurrences are that I was dealt exactly three blackjacks, all three of which pushed with the dealer also having blackjack. The count was negative for most of the shoe, leading me to $5 flat bet the entire thing.
I'll go ahead and interject here with my first counting issue... I can't seem to figure out what the optimal order is to count the cards. Do I count them one by one as they come out of the shoe.... do I count them in groups of 2... or perhaps wait until the dealer is finished dealing the starting hands to survey the battlefield? I finally decided upon a strategy of counting all of the first cards dealt to the players, then all of the second cards dealt to the players, then one by one as players hit, and then finally counting the dealer's hand. I kept running into issues of not remembering whether I had already factored in the dealer's up card in my count... and sometimes even forgetting which card was the up card when the dealer turned over his hand. Comments on this are welcome.
My second shoe saw my first ramped up bet. I went up to $10 for maybe 4-5 hands, with no notable hands to comment on.
The next several shoes I was noting a pattern. It seemed that the shoe would instantly go negative, and then the rest of the shoe would be spent trying to go back into the positive. I'm sure this was just coincidence, but it was a bit frustrating when I didn't get to up my bets. One of the shoes, about two decks in, I had a running count of -22, for a TC of about -5. I thought about wonging out, but I hadn't figured that into my strategy enough to act on it. It may have been confirmation bias, but I did feel as though the dealer could not bust.
My first high count occurred after about 3 hours of play (for some reason, $5 min-betting wasn't attracting any heat). The running count had been hovering around -5 for most of the shoe. Then, about 3 decks in, the count skyrocketed. I remember there were 5 hands being dealt among 4 people, and in two successive hands we went from around -2 all the way up to +8, for a TC around 3. I immediately ramped up to $15, and after another hand or two the TC was all the way up to 4! I upped my bet to $30, but was disappointed to see my 20 lose to a dealer's blackjack. I kept my bet at $30, this time losing my dealt 18 to the dealer's 19. As the count was dropping, I dropped down to $15 with a TC around 1.5. The 10s kept coming, but unfortunately they were on the wrong side of the felt. Still, it felt amazing when the 10s starting pouring out from the shoe, some murky confirmation that my counting was actually working.
My results for the day:
Played for 4 hours
Min bet: $5
Max bet: $30
Dealer Tips: $2.50
Net Winnings: -$240
Definitely a bit frustrating on the first day. It seems like I couldn't win a double, split, or high $ bet to save my life. I've made notes that I need to decide on how best to count the cards, and possibly consider upping my spread. Most people are betting more than $5 per hand, and I felt like that contributed to me receiving no heat for a 6:1 spread.
I also noted something interesting... If you wager with a $2.50 chip and get a blackjack, they give you $4. I confirmed this with the dealer - he said it was the only time they ever round up on the payouts. Given that the minimum wager is $5, I'm assuming this would only start to apply at bets of $7.50.... but instead of $11.25 on blackjack you would get $11.50. I don't have the blackjack hand frequency up next to me, but I'm assuming that would be worth an extra hundredths of a percent, which would of course increase along with the count (relative to average wager).
I like to count in groups of two. Everyone's first two cards and then I add or subtract the additional from there on. I actually don't count the dealers card yet in my count(unless it's an ace. I keep a side count of those) for the exact same reason as you because I have forgotten what the dealers up card is.
As for the counting, it's least noticeable if you can do it looking at the cards as you normally would - so, count the first cards, then count the second cards, then count any action. At least for me, that helps me be a little social while counting since I'm watching and reacting to other players hands in real time.
Now a couple thoughts. You didn't mention penetration in your game. That is the point at which the cards are shuffled. This is extremely important in card counting, because higher counts will mostly be found late in the shoe, so the deeper the penetration, the more high counts that you will see. A typical penetration for a six deck game is 75% or a shuffle point of about 4.5 decks in.
Now two things you might want to consider. First, DON'T play a true count of -5 (running count -22). The higher the negative TC, the bigger disadvantage you are playing that round at. TC -5 is a bad number, for just the reasons that you stated, the dealer seems to pull those small cards that are plentiful to make nearly all his hands. Get out of as many of those bad counts as you can, by whatever means you can....take a bathroom break, or a phone call break, or that might be a good time to end your session and/or switch tables. If they let you sit out rounds, just say something about how bad the cards are going and you want to wait for a fresh shuffle. Whatever you have to do, just minimize those negative count hands.
Second thing. I would ramp a little quicker. In 6 deck games, true counts of more than +4 or +5 just don't happen very often. If you are waiting any later than that (TC +5) to place your top wager, it really does you no good as you will rarely get to place it. Personally, I like to have my top wager out by a TC of +4, but +5 is acceptable if you want to be a little more conservative. Just don't wait any later than that.
Otherwise it sounds like your first experience was fairly typical, just on the negative side. The fact that high cards were coming out in high counts is a good sign that you were on the right track. They just weren't falling for you, but rather for the dealer in this session. Unfortunately that happens....get used to it.
Your evaluation of the session was spot on. Usually when evaluating short term results, like a session, it really comes down to just a few hands. A few big bets won or lost at high count and a few double down/split hands. The session as a whole is likely to mirror what happens in these few key hands.
Looking forward to reading how you progress.
Quote: kewljFirst, welcome, Actuarial.
Now a couple thoughts. You didn't mention penetration in your game. That is the point at which the cards are shuffled. This is extremely important in card counting, because higher counts will mostly be found late in the shoe, so the deeper the penetration, the more high counts that you will see. A typical penetration for a six deck game is 75% or a shuffle point of about 4.5 decks in.
Now two things you might want to consider. First, DON'T play a true count of -5 (running count -22). The higher the negative TC, the bigger disadvantage you are playing that round at. TC -5 is a bad number, for just the reasons that you stated, the dealer seems to pull those small cards that are plentiful to make nearly all his hands. Get out of as many of those bad counts as you can, by whatever means you can....take a bathroom break, or a phone call break, or that might be a good time to end your session and/or switch tables. If they let you sit out rounds, just say something about how bad the cards are going and you want to wait for a fresh shuffle. Whatever you have to do, just minimize those negative count hands.
Second thing. I would ramp a little quicker. In 6 deck games, true counts of more than +4 or +5 just don't happen very often. If you are waiting any later than that (TC +5) to place your top wager, it really does you no good as you will rarely get to place it. Personally, I like to have my top wager out by a TC of +4, but +5 is acceptable if you want to be a little more conservative. Just don't wait any later than that.
Otherwise it sounds like your first experience was fairly typical, just on the negative side. The fact that high cards were coming out in high counts is a good sign that you were on the right track. They just weren't falling for you, but rather for the dealer in this session. Unfortunately that happens....get used to it.
Your evaluation of the session was spot on. Usually when evaluating short term results, like a session, it really comes down to just a few hands. A few big bets won or lost at high count and a few double down/split hands. The session as a whole is likely to mirror what happens in these few key hands.
Looking forward to reading how you progress.
It seems to me that +5 counts and higher are not as rare as people make them out to be...perhaps wonging out at -2 (i.e. timing bathroom and pop refills with bad counts, and perfecting the timing for returning at the end of the shoe) skews the distribution. I don't disagree with ramping up quicker if it is too slow...but cover aside, +10 should not be bet the same as +4. Might as well ignore all indices over +5 too then. With surrender and doubling soft 19 soft 20, that alone woulda cost me 5% of my bankroll.
Quote: SonuvabishIt seems to me that +5 counts and higher are not as rare as people make them out to be...perhaps wonging out at -2 (i.e. timing bathroom and pop refills with bad counts, and perfecting the timing for returning at the end of the shoe) skews the distribution. I don't disagree with ramping up quicker if it is too slow...but cover aside, +10 should not be bet the same as +4. Might as well ignore all indices over +5 too then. With surrender and doubling soft 19 soft 20, that alone woulda cost me 5% of my bankroll.
Sometimes, I really don't know what you are talking about. My comments about counts greater than TC +5 are specific to the six deck game that the OP mentioned. In single and double deck, higher counts occur with greater frequency, but in shoe games, they do not. Check the true count frequencies tables for these games or if you have software run the software. TC's above +5 (+6 or more occur less than 2% of the time, depending on exact penetration. For a typical 75% penetration, 6 deck game, the number is 1.54% of the time.
Now the second part that makes no sense, is the indices comment. When you max bet or cap your spread and index plays have nothing to do with each other. But, most players do have a 'range' of index plays that they use, not really bothering with index plays for extremely rare counts, both positive and negative, that rarely occur. Then you go and cite doubling A8 as an example, which again, makes no sense. A8 vs 6 is basic strategy (for h17), and A8 vs 5 is well below +5. Why would you even bring that up?
Your last comment, "With surrender and doubling soft 19 soft 20, that alone woulda cost me 5% of my bankroll", is perhaps the strangest comment you made. Yes, surrender is very valuable, the single most valuable of index plays by far. And the index occurs at well below any point that anyone would consider not relevant. Where on earth in my post did I infer that you should pass on any index plays let alone any that occur at +3 (surrender, and doubling A8 vs 5) or basic strategy plays like doubling A8 vs 6? Where did you get that?
And one more fallacy about this last statement of yours. Yes surrender is valuable, but doubling soft 19 and 20, not as valuable as you are thinking. Those plays don't come close to 5% of any advantage? Again, I just have no idea what you are talking about. Do you?
Quote: SonuvabishIt seems to me that +5 counts and higher are not as rare as people make them out to be...perhaps wonging out at -2 (i.e. timing bathroom and pop refills with bad counts, and perfecting the timing for returning at the end of the shoe) skews the distribution. I don't disagree with ramping up quicker if it is too slow...but cover aside, +10 should not be bet the same as +4. Might as well ignore all indices over +5 too then. With surrender and doubling soft 19 soft 20, that alone woulda cost me 5% of my bankroll.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0
This is my favorite. I posted it many times, Maybe the first here( doubtful) Its my second choice for a tagline. I need to lay claim to it. claimed.Quote: geoffhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0
Quote: kewljSometimes, I really don't know what you are talking about.
I am talking about how I seem to get +4 counts more than 2% of the time I am playing in 6D. I mentioned perhaps wonging has something to do with this. I do not know how I could have been clearer.
Quote: kewlj
Now the second part that makes no sense, is the indices comment. Then you go and cite doubling A8 as an example, which again, makes no sense. Why would you even bring that up?
I am surprised you think this makes no sense, because that implies you may think precision in index plays are more valuable than precision betting. Since you are ignoring increases in advantages over +5 for betting purposes, I fail to see why you would still make strategic changes. I am also surprised that you may think you would double a soft 19 against a 3 at lower than +5, or double a soft 20 against a 4 at lower than a 5. What doesn't make sense is that you're bringing up soft 19 against a 6...what does that have to with a high count?
Quote: kewlj
Your last comment, "With surrender and doubling soft 19 soft 20, that alone woulda cost me 5% of my bankroll", is perhaps the strangest comment you made.
Truth is stranger than fiction. Perhaps if you performed a statistical analysis, which I have not done, and even perhaps shaved off 2% due to estimation error, you could more accurately elaborate to variance's role and how unlikely this event is to occur to another player for these particular high count deviations. Again, what is strange is that you wish to discuss surrendering a 14 against a 10, which is clearly not the topic.
Quote: kewlj
And one more fallacy about this last statement of yours. Yes surrender is valuable, but doubling soft 19 and 20, not as valuable as you are thinking. Those plays don't come close to 5% of any advantage? Again, I just have no idea what you are talking about. Do you?
No, obviously I have no idea what I am talking about and am referring to EV, and not referring to my actual results. What system do you use--hi/lo? Yes, I know actual results are irrelevant, because as long as you still had +EV while making the technically wrong play, being broke is OK. And being broke is ialso irrelevant, that's why I started counting. Wait...is this whole last part wrong?
From past conversations, it is evident we have differing philosophies. That is OK. But I doubt it will be productive to challenge each other, and pretend we don't know what each is talking about. I am 99% sure I use a more advanced counting system than anyone here. Although I have my weaknesses, and am not the best, my strength is maximizing efficiency--and of that particular aspect, I might be the best here. I don't care about the diminishing returns theory, because I don't see a cost. It's a bit off-putting to suggest I think the count must be +5 to double soft 19 v. 6, and similar suggestions. I have said before, there is nothing wrong with your advice, and that it is the most popularly used. I don't know why you can't be happy with it.
Quote: geoffhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0
Please quit posting that, this is the second time you have done it to me in as many weeks and it has become very annoying. In neither case did you post anything of substance, nor give any indication that you even understood the topic. After posting imminent value as standing for EV, or whatever it was, I thought you would think twice. I guess not.
But I will say this about the topic of count debates. There is a time and place for them. Reasonable people can have different opinions. But this is neither the time nor place for it. When a new member comes on asking basic questions and seeking basic information on a shoe game, is not the time to get into this discussion. I offered general advice relevant to the OP's game (6 decks) and situation of being a newer player. You seem to want to turn it into something else.
Quote: kewljYou are right...we do have different philosophies. Lol. Unless you have access to strong single deck or deeply dealt double deck games, your advanced counting system, just isn't worth the time and effort. You can put that time and effort into other things that actually will make difference. BUT, I am not here to debate counts. You are a big boy...do as you please.
But I will say this about the topic of count debates. There is a time and place for them. Reasonable people can have different opinions. But this is neither the time nor place for it. When a new member comes on asking basic questions and seeking basic information on a shoe game, is not the time to get into this discussion. It's not fair to the original poster, but it always seems to happen this way.
You are right, debates--civil or otherwise--should not be held a new a poster's thread. But a new OP shouldn't be faced with the dilemma of bet big or don't play or play wrong. Any bankroll and any ramp will suffice if you have the will, time may vary.
An advanced system coupled with Kelly betting is significantly profitable and is certainly worth the time. I find other things a waste of time--most things seem impossible or else they provide no utility. All of your opinions are stated as factual information. Perhaps I would be less inclined to chime in if you expressed your differing opinion that is not wrong, rather than always stating facts.
Quote: SonuvabishI am talking about how I seem to get +4 counts more than 2% of the time I am playing in 6D. I mentioned perhaps wonging has something to do with this. I do not know how I could have been clearer.
Do you get better than 75% penetration? A few extra cards makes a massive difference here. An extra half-deck triples your win-rate (according to Burning the Tables; I've never simulated it myself) specifically because you get a lot more of these high-true-count situations.
Quote: SonuvabishSince you are ignoring increases in advantages over +5 for betting purposes,
Kewlj has said many, many times that he underbets his bankroll, and that his max bet is based on what he feels that the casino can handle, not what his bankroll can handle. So, it makes sense for him to top out very, very quickly. It increases variance, but he has the bankroll for it. It increases his win-rate, too (for a fixed max bet)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceDo you get better than 75% penetration? A few extra cards makes a massive difference here. An extra half-deck triples your win-rate (according to Burning the Tables; I've never simulated it myself) specifically because you get a lot more of these high-true-count situations.
Yes. I used to play at a place that got up to 90% in 6D. I typically play with 80-85%.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceKewlj has said many, many times that he underbets his bankroll, and that his max bet is based on what he feels that the casino can handle, not what his bankroll can handle. So, it makes sense for him to top out very, very quickly. It increases variance, but he has the bankroll for it. It increases his win-rate, too (for a fixed max bet)
Which makes his OPINION an excellent one to give, with experience to back it up. Not to mention professionalism, at a black-chip level. I'd just hate to see his explanations in an encyclopedia. When I was a newbie, his input would have been worthless to me because I was undercapitalized, and also not very fluent in the game itself. I personally feel newbies should always have a poor man's path.
Quote: SonuvabishYes. I used to play at a place that got up to 90% in 6D. I typically play with 80-85%.
That explains it. Of course you will see many, many more extreme counts (high or low) if you play with better penetration. Again, just a few extra cards make a massive difference here.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThat explains it. Of course you will see many, many more extreme counts (high or low) if you play with better penetration. Again, just a few extra cards make a massive difference here.
Well geez, I thought Kewl said it was impossible! Are you sure I didn't count wrong? J/K
Quote: SonuvabishWell geez, I thought Kewl said it was impossible! Are you sure I didn't count wrong? J/K
WTF is your problem? Where did I say it was impossible? Read the very first paragraph of my first post in this thread. Since the OP did not mention penetration, I asked what it was because penetration makes all the difference in the world! I said something to that effect!
Then in my later post, responding to your claim that you get many, many more high counts than that, I gave the numbers for a very average 6 deck, 75% penetration game, (1.54%). Again, I specifically mentioned that these numbers vary by penetration. If you have access to a better than average game, with deeper penetration, then yes, you may see more high counts of TC+6 or more. But it is still going to be a small number, 2-3%.
And really none of this matters to the OP. I was trying to give him some tips to improve his (longterm) results, based on how he played his first session. I said, not playing severe negative counts, like TC -5 and ramping up quicker to max bet by TC +4 or +5 and I stand by these suggestions. If he is going to wait to max bet until higher true counts, those max bets aren't going to help him that much. You need those max bets out early to overcome the many, many negative, and neutral hands played.....especially in a play all situation, like the OP was describing.
Now, I am done with you. It looks like your intent is nothing more than to pick a fight with some technical minor point or twisting people words. And your posting history reveals quite a bit of that.
Quote: kewljWTF is your problem? Where did I say it was impossible? Read the very first paragraph of my first post in this thread. Since the OP did not mention penetration, I asked what it was because penetration makes all the difference in the world! I said something to that effect!
Then in my later post, responding to your claim that you get many, many more high counts than that, I gave the numbers for a very average 6 deck, 75% penetration game, (1.54%). Again, I specifically mentioned that these numbers vary by penetration. If you have access to a better than average game, with deeper penetration, then yes, you may see more high counts of TC+6 or more. But it is still going to be a small number, 2-3%.
And really none of this matters to the OP. I was trying to give him some tips to improve his (longterm) results, based on how he played his first session. I said, not playing severe negative counts, like TC -5 and ramping up quicker to max bet by TC +4 or +5 and I stand by these suggestions. If he is going to wait to max bet until higher true counts, those max bets aren't going to help him that much. You need those max bets out early to overcome the many, many negative, and neutral hands played.....especially in a play all situation, like the OP was describing.
Now, I am done with you. It looks like your intent is nothing more than to pick a fight with some technical minor point or twisting people words. And your posting history reveals quite a bit of that.
I'm gonna just block your posts. I do not wish to be the target of your flamboyant bickering. Everything you say is more of a whine than even an attempt at a convincing argument. You are not a strong counter; I have no idea, nor do I care, what you do to make up for it. You are completely intolerant and uncomplimentary. You don't deserve to be tolerated. I guess that's probably a minor technical point though.
Quote: SonuvabishI'm gonna just block your posts. I do not wish to be the target of your flamboyant bickering. Everything you say is more of a whine than even an attempt at a convincing argument. You are not a strong counter; I have no idea, nor do I care, what you do to make up for it. You are completely intolerant and uncomplimentary. You don't deserve to be tolerated. I guess that's probably a minor technical point though.
Personal Insult, Seven Days for first offense due to severity.
The penetration is about 75% (4.5 decks), although I did have this old asian lady occasionally cut to about 1 deck. That was actually another thing I was going to ask about... if you find a dealer that has some flaw in the way he or she shuffles or deals, is it weird to follow her from table to table if he or she is the relief dealer?
I was also doing some approximations on the value of having my $2.50 bets round up to $4 on a blackjack.
> If the count is negative, I should just bet $5, since the additional equity in a blackjack would be trumped by the negative EV of the bet itself.
> If the count is close to zero, I'm close to breaking even on additional $2.50 bet. If my math is correct, in an infinite deck I should get a blackjack about 4.7% of the time. This means that by betting $7.50 instead of $5, I will get an extra $0.25 about 5% of the time - for a per-hand increase in EV of about 1.175 cents per hand. However, at my local casino's 0.64% house edge game, I am expected to lose a marginal 1.600 cents by betting an additional $2.50. If I was able to find a game with a house edge less than 0.47%, or I waited until the count was even slightly positive, it would be +EV to bet some funky denomination warranting a $4 marginal blackjack payout.
Quote: ActuarialThanks for the responses so far guys -
The penetration is about 75% (4.5 decks), although I did have this old asian lady occasionally cut to about 1 deck. That was actually another thing I was going to ask about... if you find a dealer that has some flaw in the way he or she shuffles or deals, is it weird to follow her from table to table if he or she is the relief dealer?
That extra half-deck will triple your win rate.
She is your new lucky dealer. All the ploppies have lucky dealers -- you will fit right in. Talk to her. Follow her wherever she goes. Tip her well (relative to the stakes that you are playing).
You may be considered a stalker.Quote: ActuarialThanks for the responses so far guys -
The penetration is about 75% (4.5 decks), although I did have this old asian lady occasionally cut to about 1 deck. That was actually another thing I was going to ask about... if you find a dealer that has some flaw in the way he or she shuffles or deals, is it weird to follow her from table to table if he or she is the relief dealer?
.
My results for the day:
Played for 2 hours
Min bet: $5
Max bet: $40
Dealer Tips: $0
Net Winnings: -$190
Lifetime Counting Winnings: -$430
2nd time out was another negative day, although $125 of those losses came in the last 90 seconds of play with an ad hoc pass by a $10 min table on my way out.
I actually had some good exposure to positive counts. The very first shoe I played I had a TC + 3 near the end of the shoe at a full table, and 7 of the 10 cards were high, with two blackjacks. Of course, I got stuck with a 4-2 on my $40 bet, leading to a losing 16.
The majority of my $5 min table losses were due to my dealer's inexplicable ability to draw blackjacks when I had good hands during +1 - +2 TCs.
Right before my friend (a craps player) and I were about to leave, I decided to take my remaining chips to the nearest table... which happened to be $10 min. I bought in for $125 with a new shoe, and proceeded to lose every hand even as the count climbed up. The very last hand had a RC of +11 for a TC of about 2. After my previous bet of $25, I decided to go all-in with my last $40 of chips and got a very pretty A-8 vs. dealer 3. And... well I walked away with nothing.
Quote: geoffand winning your $50 ones.
Yeah, this is the part I'm struggling with! I just have to keep reminding myself that even at -$430, the difference between being where I'm at and being positive is only about 5 big bets.
