Dealer gets blackjack on a running count of +18, true count of 4.5 in a 6-deck. What did I do wrong?
I used the Hi-Lo count in this.
I bet big when the running count was +18 on a true count of +4.5 in a 6-deck shoe. I got two K's and the dealer gets a blackjack. What did I do wrong???
I was at first base with 4 players including me.
This wasn't the first time I get fucked by the dealer when the running count was 10+.
HELP ME PLEASE!!! I'VE LOST HUNDREDS.
How I play: I stand alone on a table and wait for a new shuffle so I can start counting, when I see that the true count is at least +1 or +2 on a running count of +7 or more in a 6-deck, I'll bet really big on the 2nd or 3rd base along with a player thats already playing (Cardrooms let you do that). I don't play every hand and if I do, I would wait for the count to be really big +'s and just bet a big amount. I would lose most of the times and sometimes I would actually win. Please help me guys!
Quote: godofgamblersCasino M8trix is a cardroom in San Jose that needs the stupid collection fee every hand. They show the burn card after shuffle.
I used the Hi-Lo count in this.
I bet big when the running count was +18 on a true count of +4.5 in a 6-deck shoe. I got two K's and the dealer gets a blackjack. What did I do wrong???
I was at first base with 4 players including me.
This wasn't the first time I get fucked by the dealer when the running count was 10+.
HELP ME PLEASE!!! I'VE LOST HUNDREDS.
How I play: I stand alone on a table and wait for a new shuffle so I can start counting, when I see that the true count is at least +1 or +2 on a running count of +7 or more in a 6-deck, I'll bet really big on the 2nd or 3rd base along with a player thats already playing (Cardrooms let you do that). I don't play every hand and if I do, I would wait for the count to be really big +'s and just bet a big amount. I would lose most of the times and sometimes I would actually win. Please help me guys!
g of g,
One hand. One shoe. One session. One week. One month. No guarantees; ask kewlj or one of the pros on here (which you are).
Admin note: profanity is discouraged/not allowed. Please mask your f-bombs (ie f***) and rough swears or find other words. You're new, so this is just a warning.
Quote: godofgamblersCasino M8trix is a cardroom in San Jose that needs the stupid collection fee every hand. They show the burn card after shuffle.
I used the Hi-Lo count in this.
I bet big when the running count was +18 on a true count of +4.5 in a 6-deck shoe. I got two K's and the dealer gets a blackjack. What did I do wrong???
I was at first base with 4 players including me.
This wasn't the first time I get fucked by the dealer when the running count was 10+.
HELP ME PLEASE!!! I'VE LOST HUNDREDS.
How I play: I stand alone on a table and wait for a new shuffle so I can start counting, when I see that the true count is at least +1 or +2 on a running count of +7 or more in a 6-deck, I'll bet really big on the 2nd or 3rd base along with a player thats already playing (Cardrooms let you do that). I would lose most of the times and sometimes I would actually win. Please help me guys!
Let's see, what did you do wrong:
1. You are playing in a place that requires a commission per hand.
2. You are not understanding that if you are more likely to get a blackjack, so is the dealer.
Understand that more frequent blackjacks help you, because when you get a blackjack you win 1.5 but when they dealer gets one you only lose one. So you pick up 0.5 bets in the exchange. This adds up over time.
The key word there is "over time". If you expect to win every time, you don't understand the game and should stop playing. If you expect that you never have long losing streaks, you don't understand the game and should stop playing. If you think that a high count means that you are more likely to get a blackjack than the dealer is, then you really, really, really don't understand the game.
You say that you have lost hundreds. If you cannot handle losing hundreds then you need to stop playing. You are paying a $1 fee per $100 bet on every hand. If you are betting in increments of $100, that reduces your edge by 1%. So with a +4.5 TC, your advantage is, maybe, 1%. If you are betting $50 per hand you are still paying $1, so that is 2% that you are giving away -- that's your whole edge from the main game. You are breaking even in the long run. If you are betting less than $50, you are playing at a disadvantage, despite the high count.
With the commission, this game is probably unbeatable without banking. The commission is just too high -- it is roughly the equivalent of playing a 6:5 game. If you can back-count and only play very high counts, you may have a small edge, but you really need tens of thousands to handle the swings. The fact that you are unhappy about losing hundreds tells me that you probably don't have 10s of thousands.
Stop playing. You have neither the bankroll nor the skill to beat this game. Save your money and make the occasional drive up to Cache Creek (Indian Casino with class III gaming) where the games are all 3:2, the dealer stands on all 17s, and they have $5 tables. It will take you about 2 to 2.5 hours to get there from San Jose.
Quote: godofgamblers
This wasn't the first time I get fucked by the dealer when the running count was 10+.
I want to use this as my signature.
I seek permission to do so from the OP and from someone whose name is in GREEN.
Quote: godofgamblersThank you Axiomofchoice for the in-sights. I apologize to the admin for profanity. I just thought that I would have an advantage because they show the burn card.
Showing the burn card is nice, but all it really does is increase the penetration by 1 card. It's not worth very much in a shoe game. I'd rather see it than not, but I wouldn't pay $1 per hand to see it!!!
51 white balls and 49 blackballs in a jar. That 20 that loses to 21 is just another damn blackball.
Counting is a slow GRIND. not instant riches like in stupid ass movies !
Quote: godofgamblersWhat are you thoughts on cardrooms with free collection? In Santa Cruz Oceanview Cardroom, every new shuffle they shake a dice and the number on the dice indicates how many cards will be burnt. Furthermore, I didn't mean it that way that I would expect to get a blackjack when the count is high, I just expected that the odds would be for me and I would guarantee to win from dealer busting or I get a value of 18 or more in my hand. Also, what advice do you have for someone who wants to count with a bankroll of $100 every visit?
If you are paying to play, you will lose. With a meager bankroll of $100 it usually won't take too long. The real card counters on this board require bankrolls in the tens of thousands of dollars to even have a chance at making BJ a profitable game, and they surely are not paying a game where they pay a commission to play! GIVE IT UP!!!!!
Quote: BuzzardWhen the real count is plus 2, the biggest edge you can expect to have is less than 2 %. Think of it another way.
51 white balls and 49 blackballs in a jar. That 20 that loses to 21 is just another damn blackball.
Counting is a slow GRIND. not instant riches like in stupid ass movies !
I blame 21 and The Hangover. Did those movies ever show losing hands?
Quote: Lemieux66This thread might be silly to some, but the major thing I learned is that keeping a side ace count is very important.
No it isn't.
It's not useless, but it's also not "very important", by any stretch. Especially in a shoe game.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceNo it isn't.
It's not useless, but it's also not "very important", by any stretch. Especially in a shoe game.
How so? If you can still lose on a great count and getting the 3:2 return on blackjack is a piece of your edge it seems pretty key to know the ace situation. I do know splits and doubles are more important, but still.
Quote: BuzzardIf the count is good, you are going to increase you bet accordingly. The effect of a couple more or less Aces is not a great factor over the long run. This in a SHOE game.
I should have elaborated and said it should become more and more important as penetration increases.
Quote: Lemieux66How so? If you can still lose on a great count and getting the 3:2 return on blackjack is a piece of your edge it seems pretty key to know the ace situation. I do know splits and doubles are more important, but still.
You are using it in the wrong way.
Counts that treat aces and 10s as equivalent are very powerful for betting. You can get to the 97% to 99% range on betting efficiency with simple level 1 counts and without a side count of aces. This is because an ace is a big card for betting purposes.
The issue is that an ace is a small card for most playing decisions. The reason that you keep a side count of aces is so that you can get a better playing efficiency. This is valuable in single- and double-deck games; not as valuable in 6- and 8-deck games.
This is card counting 101, by the way. There is nothing earth-shattering here.
Quote: Lemieux66I should have elaborated and said it should become more and more important as penetration increases.
Sorry, no. When you keep a side count of aces, you add them back into your count (ie, you treat them the same as 10s) for betting purposes. Keeping a side count of aces has nothing to do with your probability of getting a blackjack, it has to do with playing the hand correctly when you don't get a blackjack.
Are you just talking theoretically or do you actually play and use a side count of aces in this way? Because what you are suggesting does not sound like it would be successful.
Also don't tell me to go to diversity tomorrow because there will be that one guy that had him in the death pool celebrating :(
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou are using it in the wrong way.
Counts that treat aces and 10s as equivalent are very powerful for betting. You can get to the 97% to 99% range on betting efficiency with simple level 1 counts and without a side count of aces. This is because an ace is a big card for betting purposes.
The issue is that an ace is a small card for most playing decisions. The reason that you keep a side count of aces is so that you can get a better playing efficiency. This is valuable in single- and double-deck games; not as valuable in 6- and 8-deck games.
This is card counting 101, by the way. There is nothing earth-shattering here.
Pretty much this. A and 10 are worth a similar amount for betting purposes so combining the two doesn't really change much. In fact high low has a very high BC which is what makes it so useful even as a level 1 count. Once the bets are in the circle the difference between A and 10 becomes huge though.
Obviously I know what I'm doing.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceSorry, no. When you keep a side count of aces, you add them back into your count (ie, you treat them the same as 10s) for betting purposes. Keeping a side count of aces has nothing to do with your probability of getting a blackjack, it has to do with playing the hand correctly when you don't get a blackjack.
Are you just talking theoretically or do you actually play and use a side count of aces in this way? Because what you are suggesting does not sound like it would be successful.
When I play, I count aces the same as the tens. I just keep a seperate side ace count as well.
Quote: PerditionWhy are we talking about this when the Ultimate Warrior is dead. Where are the tribute threads?
Also don't tell me to go to diversity tomorrow because there will be that one guy that had him in the death pool celebrating :(
I put it in the 24/7 WWF thread.
Quote: Lemieux66When I play, I count aces the same as the tens. I just keep a seperate side ace count as well.
But, what do you do with that count?
You can count whatever you want, but the real question is, what changes do you make to your betting and/or playing based on the count?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceBut, what do you do with that count?
You can count whatever you want, but the real question is, what changes do you make to your betting and/or playing based on the count?
I make strategy changes based on the I18 etc. Normal stuff. I have, for the most part, actually give up the game because the wild swings in variance bother me. These threads interest the hell out of me though.
Quote: godofgamblerschrisr, I don't fully understand what you're saying. Can you elaborate? Thanks!
the pmf (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_mass_function) of outcomes for a +1% and -1% blackjack strategy will nearly line up in the short term.. only after 1000's of hands could you expect to have significantly more than a 50% chance of winning. (or significantly less if you are playing -EV).
Quote: Lemieux66I make strategy changes based on the I18 etc. Normal stuff. I have, for the most part, actually give up the game because the wild swings in variance bother me. These threads interest the hell out of me though.
Well then why are you talking about the probability of getting a 3:2 payout?
Obviously, as far as getting a blackjack is concerned, only betting (not playing) matters because you don't play the hand when you get a blackjack -- you just collect the money. If you bet the same regardless of your ace side count then it's completely irrelevant.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWell then why are you talking about the probability of getting a 3:2 payout?
Obviously, as far as getting a blackjack is concerned, only betting (not playing) matters because you don't play the hand when you get a blackjack -- you just collect the money. If you bet the same regardless of your ace side count then it's completely irrelevant.
I played at Foxwoods and it had a great setup. Insanely good penetration and surrender. I will play there if I get a ride. I just go to AC every week and I just won't play there. Two tables at resorts are good, but it's not worth it. So basically I want to stay mindful of playing good blackjack even though I play it very rarely.
Quote: Lemieux66I played at Foxwoods and it had a great setup. Insanely good penetration and surrender. I will play there if I get a ride. I just go to AC every week and I just won't play there. Two tables at resorts are good, but it's not worth it. So basically I want to stay mindful of playing good blackjack even though I play it very rarely.
My point is, first you said that keeping a side count of aces because blackjacks pay 3:2. Then you said that the only thing that you do with your side count is use it to make deviations from basic strategy.
That makes absolutely no sense.
Quote: IbeatyouracesIf you have a high TC (+4 or higher), but short on aces, you might not want to double on 10 vs. 10 or ace as the index calls for.
Against an ace (in a hole card game where the dealer peeks, of course) it looks like a good double to me with lots of 10s and not a lot of aces. That's just intuition, though -- I could be wrong. I can dig up the tag numbers for different playing decisions when I get home. I don't actually play multi-parameter systems so I don't have most of this stuff memorized.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWell then why are you talking about the probability of getting a 3:2 payout?
Obviously, as far as getting a blackjack is concerned, only betting (not playing) matters because you don't play the hand when you get a blackjack -- you just collect the money. If you bet the same regardless of your ace side count then it's completely irrelevant.
I played at Foxwoods and it had a great setup. Insanely good penetration and surrender. I will play there if I get a ride. I just go to AC every week and I just won't play there. Two tables at resorts are good, but it's not worth it. So basically I want to stay mindful of playing good blackjack even though I play it very rarely.
Quote: Lemieux66I played at Foxwoods and it had a great setup. Insanely good penetration and surrender. I will play there if I get a ride. I just go to AC every week and I just won't play there. Two tables at resorts are good, but it's not worth it. So basically I want to stay mindful of playing good blackjack even though I play it very rarely.
Do you play in the Newport Room?
Quote: 1BBDo you play in the Newport Room?
It's the room that was basically all red. It was near the cafeteria area that has the unguarded soda fountain.
The fact that the dealer got a blackjack is simply part of your game variance. If you don't understand that or cannot stomach the variance then you should not be playing blackjack at all.
Read up some more about counting, variance and perhaps also educate yourself on the kelly criterion, in case you someday have a large enough bankroll to worry about bet sizes.
Card counting is not a fly by night exercize, just ask most of the guys here.
All the best
Quote: TomspurThere is a big difference between counts that have a strong betting correlation and a strong playing efficiency. That is why Hi-Lo is such an effective count because it shows a 0.97 betting correlation which is the highest out of all the count systems (that I know of), which is a great starting point for novice counters. Don't worry about a seperate ace count as it is simply going to confuse you. The aces and tens are all included in your TC, which, at +4.5TC is an advantage for you so you have to increase your units wagered.
The fact that the dealer got a blackjack is simply part of your game variance. If you don't understand that or cannot stomach the variance then you should not be playing blackjack at all.
Read up some more about counting, variance and perhaps also educate yourself on the kelly criterion, in case you someday have a large enough bankroll to worry about bet sizes.
Card counting is not a fly by night exercize, just ask most of the guys here.
All the best
Hi-Lo has the highest BC you know of? Am I reading this out of context or something? Don't get me wrong, in my opinion Hi-Lo is the best place to start for a newbie. But it is a relatively weak count. There aren't many professional level counts with lower BC.
Quote: SonuvabishHi-Lo has the highest BC you know of? Am I reading this out of context or something? Don't get me wrong, in my opinion Hi-Lo is the best place to start for a newbie. But it is a relatively weak count. There aren't many professional level counts with lower BC.
These following counts are ones I have researched and use on occasion. I am no card counter, just a concerned citizen.
If you have more information for me, I would love to get my hands on some. Again, this is merely a very small sample of all the counts available:
Zen: BC = 0.96
Uston APC: BC = 0.91
Omega II: BC = 0.92
High Opt I: BC = 0.88
High Opt II: BC = 0.91
Hi-Lo: 0.97
Are my figures badly off?
Quote: TomspurThese following counts are ones I have researched and use on occasion. I am no card counter, just a concerned citizen.
If you have more information for me, I would love to get my hands on some. Again, this is merely a very small sample of all the counts available:
Zen: BC = 0.96
Uston APC: BC = 0.91
Omega II: BC = 0.92
High Opt I: BC = 0.88
High Opt II: BC = 0.91
Hi-Lo: 0.97
Are my figures badly off?
Right on the money. There are a couple that are a little higher. BC is most important in shoe games.
Quote: 1BBRight on the money. There are a couple that are a little higher. BC is most important in shoe games.
Correct,
I new my figures were somewhat accurate but I was forced to look at them again of Son's post to me above. Perhaps we were not talking about the same thing or I got something else wrong somewhere.
Quote: TomspurCorrect,
I new my figures were somewhat accurate but I was forced to look at them again of Son's post to me above. Perhaps we were not talking about the same thing or I got something else wrong somewhere.
I'm not sure but I know that most teams use Hi-Lo.
Quote: TomspurThese following counts are ones I have researched and use on occasion. I am no card counter, just a concerned citizen.
If you have more information for me, I would love to get my hands on some. Again, this is merely a very small sample of all the counts available:
Zen: BC = 0.96
Uston APC: BC = 0.91
Omega II: BC = 0.92
High Opt I: BC = 0.88
High Opt II: BC = 0.91
Hi-Lo: 0.97
Are my figures badly off?
Except Zen, all those counts are supposed to use an Ace-side count because they are ace-neutral counts. Hi-Lo is ace-reckoned. If you are not using an ace-side count, you are using it improperly. That is the BC without the ace side count. A count like Hi-Opt 1 can be used in tandem with Hi-Lo to increase playing efficiency. Aside from Zen, none of those counts should ever be used without a side count or some other conjunction. For Zen, the gain in playing efficiency and insurance correlation outweighs the 0.005 (not 0.01) loss in BC.
Wong Halves has a .99 BC. It has the highest BC of commercial counts that are frequently used. Though there are obsolete counts with even higher BCs. Hi-opt II, a count you listed, is considered to be the strongest popular count (Wong Halves second) in use today. It's BC is between .98 and .99. Revere point count, an ace-reckoned count simpler than wong halves, has a BC of .98, and is in frequent use (Revere also has a 100% BC count, obsolete).
