"I Am a Card Counter"

Quote: sodawater

I have a better system, and I won't even charge for it.

I call it the Sodawater 100-count. Wait until you see a shooter roll 100 consecutive point numbers before placing a single bet. This will eliminate 100 percent of random rolls and will save you the MAXIMUM on craps. It's the most powerful craps system possible.

Does the Sodawater 100-count call for a pass line bet or a don't pass after the shooter has made 100 passes? My inclination would be to bet against shooter......as he is due to 7-out. Oops the gambler fallacy again.

Quote: treetopbuddy

Quote: sodawater

I have a better system, and I won't even charge for it.

I call it the Sodawater 100-count. Wait until you see a shooter roll 100 consecutive point numbers before placing a single bet. This will eliminate 100 percent of random rolls and will save you the MAXIMUM on craps. It's the most powerful craps system possible.

Does the Sodawater 100-count call for a pass line bet or a don't pass after the shooter has made 100 passes? My inclination would be to bet against shooter......as he is due to 7-out. Oops the gambler fallacy again.

If a shooter rolled 100 point numbers in a row, my system calls for a table-maximum place bet on each of the point numbers for the 101st roll. Conditional probability tells us the dice are misspotted.

Quote: sodawater

Quote: treetopbuddy

Quote: sodawater

I have a better system, and I won't even charge for it.

I call it the Sodawater 100-count. Wait until you see a shooter roll 100 consecutive point numbers before placing a single bet. This will eliminate 100 percent of random rolls and will save you the MAXIMUM on craps. It's the most powerful craps system possible.

Does the Sodawater 100-count call for a pass line bet or a don't pass after the shooter has made 100 passes? My inclination would be to bet against shooter......as he is due to 7-out. Oops the gambler fallacy again.

If a shooter rolled 100 point numbers in a row, my system calls for a table-maximum place bet on each of the point numbers for the 101st roll. Conditional probability tells us the dice are misspotted.

Have you ever thought about writing a book? You could make unfalsifiable claims regarding your personal life for filler material, and conflate theoretical success with practical application to mislead.

Reminds me I once had a dealer insist it was better to double 11 v. A in theory, not practice--H17. I said there was no difference. Still have no idea what she was talking about, maybe thinks the authors of the "new book" have a sinister agenda.

I would love a copy of the book. I don't count cards but enjoyed the "diaries" of counters such as Blackjack Autumn, and The Blackjack Life. Actually I like any good gambling stories.

I agree with Sodawater, the 100 count is better but it will be tough to get craps players to play it.

It's not hard to come up with a list of people that you would lump into the greatest blackjack players to select from but I want to know the DEEP questions, such as who is the greatest roulette player of all time!

Quote: Tarzan

It's not hard to come up with a list of people that you would lump into the greatest blackjack players to select from but I want to know the DEEP questions, such as who is the greatest roulette player of all time!

James Bond

What about janitors, waitresses, I want to know their thoughts. Does anyone heard the word "plot"? 1000000 can write a book, but you can count good one's by your fingers.

I would go several steps further.

I think Sodawater should consider writing a book titled "Sodawater's Century Craps." Play craps exactly as he says. (I'd still recommend keeping the betting low even if the player does make 100 points in a row.) Sodawater can apply this logic to all the games: "Sodawater's Century Blackjack," "Sodawater's Century Roulette." His idea not to place a bet until 100 points are hit by the same shooter on the same hand or 100 of the same color in roulette are hit in a row (can be any 100 sequenced decisions at roulette) or 100 straight wins in blackjack occur is a great idea.

Obviously, this would save gamblers a fortune. There's a very good chance they would never bet again using Sodawater's Century system. I am sure gamblers would be very happy to follow Sodawater's advice and not gamble.

I think a series of Sodawater Century books might get quite a lot of attention. But a word of advice: You must call your ideas a catchy name and that's why I do recommend "Sodawater's Century" because it has a positive ring to it.

I would not have had the courage to do a Sodawater Century because I know craps players like to get into the action. So the Captain's 5-Count allows them to bet on 43 percent of the random rolls and avoid the other 57 percent of the rolls. Then if my idea of only making one Come or Pass Line bet on random shooters is followed I think the craps player gets his gambling kick and really saves money too.

Now, Dicenor33 has good points as well. Who is going to buy Sodawater's books? Advantage-players will not be interested in playing any random game so getting to know "janitors" and "waitresses" (who are obviously stupid in Dicenor33's opinion) is indeed a smart thing to do. I'll add that getting to know non-advantage players would be a great help in determining how to structure the books to appeal to players who are --- let's be frank --- throwing their money away on negative expectation games. Dicenor33 can even give an endorsement about how good the Sodawater Century books are. That endorsement can go on the back of the books.

I happen to agree that making a bet where you don't have an edge is making a bad bet. Still I realize that gamblers want to gamble and making low-house-edge bets and reducing the number of decisions is the next best thing for them.

Now to roulette. Who are/were the best roulette players? I think you choose either Laurance Scott or Billy Walters. I'd go with Scott.

Quote: Tarzan

but I want to know the DEEP questions, such as who is the greatest roulette player of all time!

Billy Walters, but Michael Barnett may be up there as well.

My vote is for Harry

http://www.psican.org/alpha/index.php?/20110310557/Psychical-Phenomena-ESP-PK-RSPK-Remote-Viewing/The-Worlds-Only-Professional-Roulette-Player.html

The only descent book about BJ play has described the team play by MIT students. Others are remarkably similar. Movie"21" said it all. There is nothing else to it.

Did that MIT team win? (I assume you've read the Ken Uston books.)

Frank,

You are either totally missing my point or are pretending you are in order to draw attention away from it. My point was there is nothing special about your "5-count" as a way to determine which rolls to sit out. Why would players want to keep a tedious account of past rolls at craps to determine which rolls to sit out? Just sit out whichever rolls you want.

You are trying to run away from the "real" goal of your 5-count, which was to identify unwitting "natural" controlled shooters, who through some mysticism have an edge over the game. This, of course, is ridiculous and a scam.

But I guess ridiculous scams fit well in your books.

Quote: Dicenor33

The only descent book about BJ play has described the team play by MIT students. Others are remarkably similar. Movie"21" said it all. There is nothing else to it.

That book belongs in the fiction section.

Sodawater, I understand you fully. You are convinced that I am selling a bogus "betting system" that I herald will take away the casino's edge at craps; in short, I am scamming my readers and my former students.

Okay, we agree that the 5-Count does reduce the number of decisions a craps player faces and if the bettor only bets one bet after the 5-Count he is far better off.

Yes, the Captain's 5-Count is not the only way to reduce the number of decisions from random rollers on your bankroll. Certainly, you could stand at a table and not bet half of the shooters. But a shooter who is having a good roll will make the craps gambler upset that he is not on that roll (that's why you do have to take Dicenor33's advice in getting to know how non-advantage players think). With the 5-Count he will be on that roll. The fact that in the long run whether you sit out every other shooter or use the 5-Count the house will have the same edge per bet is not satisfactory for the craps player. Remember you are dealing with players who want action.

The math is the math; we can't escape it. But the 5-Count reduces the hit but still allows the player to get on good rolls and to be an active part of the game. I am sure you see my point here. The pattern of the game is different with a 5-Counter than with a "bet-half" player though the end result is the same per bet.

As for me, I have no problem not betting on random rollers. I really don't care how long a random roll went on for. In the long run to be on that roll means I have to be on all the rolls since I don't know ahead of time which shooter will have the monster. Thus, I lose even if I am on that big roll. When I do bet on random rollers it is a single bet with full odds and that is that. My attitude is not the same as most craps players though. The 5-Count helps those who desire action but also want to save money.

Now, if you read Don Catlin's information in the link I gave, you would see that if a controlled shooter were at a table the 5-Counter will be on him more than the bet all player. How often will such a thing happen? Not often. Most craps players --- actually almost all craps players --- are playing a negative game. I don't pretend otherwise.

There is no scam in anything I am writing. I am writing books that I know will help readers play a better game against the casinos. I also acknowledge that there have been changes in my recommendations over the years concerning how to bet at craps. I used to recommend three bets after the 5-Count, which is (as you know) three games against the house. Now I recommend one bet. The losses will be cut substantially. I do not recommend the Supersystem anymore.

I do see your point and I do sense (vaguely) your anger and disdain.

Maybe we should close our back and forth at this point. I've said what I want to say and you (and others) have said what you want to say. Usually what's left at this point is merely sarcastic comments that entertain those who agree with you but have little positive effect on other readers.

Quote: Dicenor33

What about janitors, waitresses, I want to know their thoughts. Does anyone heard the word "plot"? 1000000 can write a book, but you can count good one's by your fingers.

Dice,

I would suggest the use of a grammar checker before you throw stones on somebody who's published 30 books.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Dice,

I would suggest the use of a grammar checker before you throw stones on somebody who's published 30 books.

Babs darling , your new title is administrator, not EDITOR. This is a borderline insult, by the way.

Quote: Buzzard

Babs darling , your new title is administrator, not EDITOR. This is a borderline insult, by the way.

I disagree with your assessment.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I disagree with your assessment.

I would suggest the use of a grammar checker before you throw stones on somebody who's published 30 books.

Perhaps I am wrong. Is this a compliment ? ? ?

Quote: beachbumbabs

I disagree with your assessment.

I agree that what you said was not an insult (clearly an attack on the statement, not the author) but your implication that someone who has published a lot of books is necessarily an expert in his field is a little ridiculous. I'm not sure if you've ever perused the gambling sections of a bookstore but most of it is utter trash trying to scam people who are bad at math. Writing 30 gambling books is on par with hosting 30 infomercials as far as I'm concerned. There are good books, of course (great ones, in fact -- I own many of them) but unfortunately they are in the minority.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Dice,

I would suggest the use of a grammar checker before you throw stones on somebody who's published 30 books.

As the original poster of this thread illustrates so well, publishing a large number of books has at best a weak correlation with expert knowledge or writing ability.

Quote: Buzzard

I would suggest the use of a grammar checker before you throw stones on somebody who's published 30 books.

Perhaps I am wrong. Is this a compliment ? ? ?

An observation about what he said in his harsh criticism of Frank's writing skills. Not a compliment or an insult, just commenting on his post. I found it funny.

It wasn't the spell checker part I had trouble with, it was the analogy to throw stones. Expression one's opinion is not the same thing.

But like I always said, even before our divorce, don't take it personal.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I agree that what you said was not an insult (clearly an attack on the statement, not the author) but your implication that someone who has published a lot of books is necessarily an expert in his field is a little ridiculous. I'm not sure if you've ever perused the gambling sections of a bookstore but most of it is utter trash trying to scam people who are bad at math. Writing 30 gambling books is on par with hosting 30 infomercials as far as I'm concerned. There are good books, of course (great ones, in fact -- I own many of them) but unfortunately they are in the minority.

AoC,

I would not, and never have, considered or presented myself as knowledgable enough on gaming to make a judgement about the merits of the advice within any gambling book. Just more than a little irony in jumping Frank as an author with misspellings in the attacking post.

Quote: Buzzard

It wasn't the spell checker part I had trouble with, it was the analogy to throw stones. Expression one's opinion is not the same thing.

But like I always said, even before our divorce, don't take it personal.

You don't find it funny that a guy attacks the writing of one of the most successful authors ever in the field of gaming, does so with misspellings? Where did your sense of humor go, Buzz?

Evidently you did not understand the rules before accepting the position of exulted administrator.

Please review them immediately. Before casting aspersion on anyone's valid criticism, misspelled or not !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWoD2sQ9LiU

Thanks for comments. As I understand correctly if you want to criticize an author you must be an expert on English? Let's face it, English language contains some 100,000 words. It would take someone a great portion of his life to become profficient in all the intricacies the language posses in itself. Should you be silent during this extensive period, or maybe you should keep practicing as much as you can?

Quote: Buzzard

Evidently you did not understand the rules before accepting the position of exulted administrator.

Please review them immediately. Before casting aspersion on anyone's valid criticism, misspelled or not !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWoD2sQ9LiU

Er...Buzz. Need I mention the word is exalted? LMAO....I so love that clip. I say that all the time!

Quote: beachbumbabs

Er...Buzz. Need I mention the word is exalted? LMAO....I so love that clip. I say that all the time!

To exult is to be extremely joyful. 1st requirement to be a good administator.

Quote: FrankScoblete

Just to be plain: My books sell many copies. Some over six figures.

I wish I could make that claim about my book. I don't think I have broken the five-figure barrier yet.

Quote: Wizard

I wish I could make that claim about my book. I don't think I have broken the five-figure barrier yet.

How far are you guys behind John Patrick ? ? ?

Few extra words regarding 30 books. They can be described in a single sentence : stop stealing someone's ideas and pretend they are yours. That is a culprit of my criticism. Almost every book by Scoblete describes something what other authors has written before him. And that, my friends, is not a very nice thing.

Quote: Buzzard

How far are you guys behind John Patrick ? ? ?

I'm sure Patrick has outsold me by a factor of 1,000. Which book do you think Average Joe will buy?

A. A math-heavy book that tells you that even if you memorize complicated strategies the odds will still be against you.
B. A book that promises easy and fun ways to beat the casinos.

Of course it always helps to marry the editor, right Frank ? LOL

I only buy books now that come complete with crayons.

Quote: Wizard

I'm sure Patrick has outsold me by a factor of 1,000. Which book do you think Average Joe will buy?

A. A math-heavy book that tells you that even if you memorize complicated strategies the odds will still be against you.
B. A book that promises easy and fun ways to beat the casinos.

I was going to mention that distinction, since I've read both of you, but it's cold comfort on the dollars realized consideration. However, Wiz, you likely have a lot of very discerning and educated readers by percentage, so if quality counts for anything...(which in my book, it does). But then, I'm just one tree in the forest. lol...

Quote: beachbumbabs

so if quality counts for anything...

Nothing against quality, but you can't use it to pay your mortgage.

Frank’s books and tapes have sold over a million copies.

http://booksonroulette.com/spin-roulette-gold.htm

So.... The most successful gambling author of all time comes to this site, fairly regularly, he post on myriad topics that spark interesting conversations and when he announces a new book he gets attacked as a charlatan?

That is the strategy for this board to grow and discuss ideas?

I doubt that is what the Wizard is looking to do.

Mr. Scoblete certainly has other thing in his life and he can delete his access here and never return. That would be a loss for this board.

I have read Mr. Scoblete's book and I find them quite entertaining.

I do not recall him ever advertising a get rich quick system. He conveys methods of play to his readers in a fun and interesting manner.

I intend to get his book and read it cover to cover.

As for his Dice Control Stuff.... I have seen it in action in AC. I watched Mr. Scoblete, his partner Dominator, and some of his instructors at a table several years back. I did not acknowledge that I recognized them. What they were doing was not random.

In addition, after reading several of his craps books I conducted a little investigation. This included checking certain public records and conducting interviews. The result is I am certain that "The Captain" (now deceased) was a real person. I know his identity but I will never reveal it. It is not my place to "out" someone that maintained his privacy when he was alive.

I own Wizard's book. None of Frank's books.

I do enjoy reading Frank here though. No doubt he is a very talented writer.

Quote: Scan

As for his Dice Control Stuff.... I have seen it in action in AC. I watched Mr. Scoblete, his partner Dominator, and some of his instructors at a table several years back. I did not acknowledge that I recognized them. What they were doing was not random.

Let's see:

Possibility 1: You collected a lot of data, did some statistical tests, and can state to some high degree of certainly that the data you collected was not random.

Possibility 2: You are talking out of your ass because you think that you can tell the difference between random and non-random data from a small sample size.

I wonder which one it is...

AoC. You were not there to see what I saw. You know nothing about my background yet you can state that I am "talking out (my) ass"

Amazing

If this is a poll I vote for #2 .

Quote: Wizard

Nothing against quality, but you can't use it to pay your mortgage.

Don't textbooks cost a heck of a lot more than popular books?

What a racket school books are. Talk about a captive market. Last semester I had to buy new books along with an activation code.
Just so students can't but used books.

Quote: Scan

AoC. You were not there to see what I saw. You know nothing about my background yet you can state that I am "talking out (my) ass"

Amazing

I simply provided two possibilities.

Did you collect a large amount of data, conduct statistical tests for randomness on that data, and conclude that there is a very low probability that the data was random?

If not you're talking out of your ass when you say that it was not random, because you simply have no way of knowing.

But what if they told him they were controlling the dice ? I mean, well, that is so different. LOL

Quote: Scan

AoC. You were not there to see what I saw. You know nothing about my background yet you can state that I am "talking out (my) ass"

Amazing

That's the point. Unless you did record large amounts of data and perform statistical tests on it, you are just spewing the same nonsense as Frank does in his books. Doesn't matter what you saw, what you think you saw, or what you choose to remember.

Quote: Wizard

I wish I could make that claim about my book. I don't think I have broken the five-figure barrier yet.

Geez, I didn't even know you had a book. But I have no doubt it is math-heavy and beyond my level of understanding. :(

What all does it cover and where do I find it? Is there a link here somewhere that I am not seeing?