Card counting with not so nice rules
How far can you spread bets? If you can spread far, with penetration like that, you can cut into the HE substantially. With frequent table hopping and some back counting you could probably come out ahead, but it wouldn't be easy. A lot of it would come down to how concerned the places are about counting and how extreme your tactics can be.
Quote: ninequeens49Based on your experience, what do you think about an 8-deck bj game, 80% penetration, double only 10 or 11, NDAS, no resplit, no surrender? That's the only thing I have in my country. Do you think is worth to spend time counting there? (hi-lo)
How much heat? What countermeasures are they legally allowed to take in your country?
The rules are crap, but any 80% pen game can be beaten with a large enough bet spread. I'd have to run some sims, but I'd assume that if you can sit there and bet $5 on bad counts and $500 on good counts you will make money.
Quote: endermikeWhat is the alternative? Not playing or playing something else? Are you think of making this into your job?
How far can you spread bets? If you can spread far, with penetration like that, you can cut into the HE substantially. With frequent table hopping and some back counting you could probably come out ahead, but it wouldn't be easy. A lot of it would come down to how concerned the places are about counting and how extreme your tactics can be.
No alternative. I'm not thinking of making this into my job, just a hobby but want to make some money. A 1-25 bet spread is allowed. They are not so concerned about counting. I can play hi-lo perfectly, anyone can estimate what the house edge is and what my edge would be given this?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceHow much heat? What countermeasures are they legally allowed to take in your country?
The rules are crap, but any 80% pen game can be beaten with a large enough bet spread. I'd have to run some sims, but I'd assume that if you can sit there and bet $5 on bad counts and $500 on good counts you will make money.
Fortunately, I don't have to worry so much about measures. The problem is related to the rules.
Just 1-25 spread.
Quote: 1BBIt's not looking good. Fill in the blanks for us. Is this no hole card? Does the dealer hit soft 17? Does the player lose all splits and doubles when the dealer has blackjack? Does blackjack pay 3 to 2? Most blackjack games can be beaten but this is going to be an uphill battle that I would not attempt.
There is hole card, but the dealer doesn't peek. Stands at S17. Players loses everything when the dealer has BJ. BJ is paid 3 to 2.
Quote: ninequeens49There is hole card, but the dealer doesn't peek. Stands at S17. Players loses everything when the dealer has BJ. BJ is paid 3 to 2.
I get a house edge of 0.90095 from the Wizard of Odds calculator. You can find the calculator by clicking on the Wizard of Odds site at the bottom of this page. Good luck and welcome.
Quote: 1BBI get a house edge of 0.90095 from the Wizard of Odds calculator. You can find the calculator by clicking on the Wizard of Odds site at the bottom of this page. Good luck and welcome.
That's pretty bad. What edge should I expect to reach?
Quote: 1BBI get a house edge of 0.90095 from the Wizard of Odds calculator. You can find the calculator by clicking on the Wizard of Odds site at the bottom of this page. Good luck and welcome.
So, you only have an edge when the TC is +2 or higher, and your edge is tiny at +2.
Does anyone know of an online calculator where you can enter details (like 8 decks, 80% pen) and it will tell you how often the count crosses some threshold? In this example, how often is the TC +3 or more?
Quote: ninequeens49That's pretty bad. What edge should I expect to reach?
I don't do sims so don't hold me to this. With a 1-25 spread I think you'd be darn lucky to break even and you're certainly not going to make a living. Playing for pleasure and comps is another thing. How are the comps?
Quote: 1BBI don't do sims so don't hold me to this. With a 1-25 spread I think you'd be darn lucky to break even and you're certainly not going to make a living. Playing for pleasure and comps is another thing. How are the comps?
Add in some regular wonging-out (especially if the casino is big enough that he can easily find another table) and I think it should work out.
I'm assuming absolutely zero heat though -- the ability to jump-spread. 1 on +2 or worse; 25 on +3 or more. Wong out at -1 or -2.
It would be a wild ride. 5000 unit bankroll MINIMUM. Preferably more.
Quote: DeucekiesI don't think I'd want to play this game even for pleasure. Lose my three way split and double down to a dealer's surprise blackjack? No thanks.
Luckily you can't resplit or double after split! :D So, max 2 wagers out.
Someone posted that that HE is 0.9% which sounds about right.
With that kind of pen. you will find many opportunites with positive EV at TC +3 and over.
If you are relatively serious about it (ie serious hobby) get some software to so some sims (like CVdata etc).
You will see then want kind of money you can get and what spread is needed etc to do that.
But you dfinteteley need to do a lot of wong in and wong out.
What are the limits in $ equivalent amounts.
I would definitely play the game if there was no heat at all and the limits were decent.
BUT I suspect also that now there is no heat but at some point if you win a lot there will be.
