Effect of card counts on basic strategy

Hey All,

I hope that this question has not been asked several million times before.

Generally, most of the discussions on card counts concentrate and elaborate on the effect of counts on bets and acknowledge that it might effect the basic strategy without elaboration

If possible, I would like to see specific data and learn more on the effects of card counts on strategy.

Thanks,

Dan

Depends on which count system you're using.

The more advanced count systems will have a matrix which identifies those counts at which play should deviate from basic stategy.

Different systems have different matrices, so you need to first determine which system you wish to use, then learn the matrix applicable to that system.

And it doesn't matter that much anyway. These changes will just barely nudge the %EV up; it's worth a lot more to raise your bet when it is up.

What Bingo said.

It really depends on your cicumstances, but the matrices require a LOT of extra effort in learning any particular system. I'm not saying they're not worth it; just saying that you need to objectively assess your needs. First determine your current level of play, then determine what level you want to be.
As always, you're gonna be more successful using a simple system accurately than using a "better" system inaccurately.

Knowledge of the "best play" to make with a given count can be considered as icing on the cake.
It's nice to know if you really should stand on your stiff when you have a relatively large bet, even though basic strategy says to hit.
You've got a pair of 10's and the dealer has a 4; are you truly better off splitting that 20?
The icing doesn't matter if you don't have the cake itself (correct bet in relation to the count).

Something of great consideration is that the matrix becomes more important when the large bets are out, but keep in mind that casinos know basic strategy.
You've already "moved your money", and now you're displaying even more savvy with play deviation.
Red flags, heat, whatever you want to call it.

Technically, for any given deck composition there is an optimal way to play each hand, which can be calculated exactly by a computer. People can never hope to do this at the table, so the counting systems will all give estimates, mapping the actual deck composition to a number, which can be used to estimate the optimal play. We can even rate the quality of each counting system by measuring how frequently it helps us make the correct decision.

If you study a counting system, you should get a book with the return tables, like Standford Wong's Professional Blackjack. You won't learn all you want to know from the internet. Or, you write a simulation yourself. Probably more work than earning $10-$20 for a good book.

Once you have the return tables, you can truly appreciate how the deck composition affects how you should play each hand, how close each play is, and how the indices help you in the right direction.

From Gamemaster Blackjack lessons::

http://www.gamemasteronline.com/Archive/BlackjackSchool/GameMasterClassics14.shtml

Quote: dant11002

Hey All,

I hope that this question has not been asked several million times before.

Generally, most of the discussions on card counts concentrate and elaborate on the effect of counts on bets and acknowledge that it might effect the basic strategy without elaboration

If possible, I would like to see specific data and learn more on the effects of card counts on strategy.

Thanks,

Dan

Look up the Illustrious 18 and the Fab 4 Surrenders on the Wizard of Odds site. Print them and learn at your own pace beginning with the most important one which is insurance at +3. Positive variance to you!

Quote: 1BB

Look up the Illustrious 18 and the Fab 4 Surrenders on the Wizard of Odds site. Print them and learn at your own pace beginning with the most important one which is insurance at +3. Positive variance to you!

Does taking insurance at +3 also include taking the even money option with a blackjack?

deleted

I remember seeing a table somewhere giving all the counts where you varied from normal strategy. However I think the main thing, whichever count system you use, is to appreciate the very close decisions (16v10, 13v2, 14v2), working up to when you double 9v7 or split 9sv7 (and probably other things come in), working down to hitting 12s v 6, not doubling etc. Personally (I don't count - shame on me) is to appreciate the types of things to do when the count is "bad", "average+", "good" etc. Naturally if you can get to "+3" rather than "+4" and know it's when to do X but not Y then even better.

If you have a simple blackjack spreadsheet (which works out infinite deck strategy) then play around with the ratio of tens in the deck and see how the decisions change (rather than an exact "when"); I suspect splitting 9s vs 9 is nearly one of the last things to go.