Thread Rating:

dant11002
dant11002
Joined: Sep 1, 2013
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 1
September 1st, 2013 at 6:13:34 PM permalink
Hey All,

I hope that this question has not been asked several million times before.

Generally, most of the discussions on card counts concentrate and elaborate on the effect of counts on bets and acknowledge that it might effect the basic strategy without elaboration

If possible, I would like to see specific data and learn more on the effects of card counts on strategy.

Thanks,

Dan
rob45
rob45
Joined: Jul 24, 2013
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 251
September 1st, 2013 at 6:54:28 PM permalink
Depends on which count system you're using.

The more advanced count systems will have a matrix which identifies those counts at which play should deviate from basic stategy.

Different systems have different matrices, so you need to first determine which system you wish to use, then learn the matrix applicable to that system.
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 1348
September 1st, 2013 at 6:59:25 PM permalink
And it doesn't matter that much anyway. These changes will just barely nudge the %EV up; it's worth a lot more to raise your bet when it is up.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
rob45
rob45
Joined: Jul 24, 2013
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 251
September 1st, 2013 at 7:48:40 PM permalink
What Bingo said.

It really depends on your cicumstances, but the matrices require a LOT of extra effort in learning any particular system. I'm not saying they're not worth it; just saying that you need to objectively assess your needs. First determine your current level of play, then determine what level you want to be.
As always, you're gonna be more successful using a simple system accurately than using a "better" system inaccurately.

Knowledge of the "best play" to make with a given count can be considered as icing on the cake.
It's nice to know if you really should stand on your stiff when you have a relatively large bet, even though basic strategy says to hit.
You've got a pair of 10's and the dealer has a 4; are you truly better off splitting that 20?
The icing doesn't matter if you don't have the cake itself (correct bet in relation to the count).

Something of great consideration is that the matrix becomes more important when the large bets are out, but keep in mind that casinos know basic strategy.
You've already "moved your money", and now you're displaying even more savvy with play deviation.
Red flags, heat, whatever you want to call it.
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1246
September 1st, 2013 at 8:11:11 PM permalink
Technically, for any given deck composition there is an optimal way to play each hand, which can be calculated exactly by a computer. People can never hope to do this at the table, so the counting systems will all give estimates, mapping the actual deck composition to a number, which can be used to estimate the optimal play. We can even rate the quality of each counting system by measuring how frequently it helps us make the correct decision.

If you study a counting system, you should get a book with the return tables, like Standford Wong's Professional Blackjack. You won't learn all you want to know from the internet. Or, you write a simulation yourself. Probably more work than earning $10-$20 for a good book.

Once you have the return tables, you can truly appreciate how the deck composition affects how you should play each hand, how close each play is, and how the indices help you in the right direction.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
EdgeLooker
EdgeLooker
Joined: Jan 4, 2012
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 290
September 1st, 2013 at 9:40:51 PM permalink
From Gamemaster Blackjack lessons::

http://www.gamemasteronline.com/Archive/BlackjackSchool/GameMasterClassics14.shtml
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 5339
September 1st, 2013 at 11:45:00 PM permalink
Quote: dant11002

Hey All,

I hope that this question has not been asked several million times before.

Generally, most of the discussions on card counts concentrate and elaborate on the effect of counts on bets and acknowledge that it might effect the basic strategy without elaboration

If possible, I would like to see specific data and learn more on the effects of card counts on strategy.

Thanks,

Dan



Look up the Illustrious 18 and the Fab 4 Surrenders on the Wizard of Odds site. Print them and learn at your own pace beginning with the most important one which is insurance at +3. Positive variance to you!
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
10DollarBri
10DollarBri
Joined: Jul 15, 2012
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 84
September 2nd, 2013 at 7:02:30 PM permalink
Quote: 1BB

Look up the Illustrious 18 and the Fab 4 Surrenders on the Wizard of Odds site. Print them and learn at your own pace beginning with the most important one which is insurance at +3. Positive variance to you!



Does taking insurance at +3 also include taking the even money option with a blackjack?
I know nothing!
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
September 2nd, 2013 at 7:10:58 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 2512
September 4th, 2013 at 5:45:40 PM permalink
I remember seeing a table somewhere giving all the counts where you varied from normal strategy. However I think the main thing, whichever count system you use, is to appreciate the very close decisions (16v10, 13v2, 14v2), working up to when you double 9v7 or split 9sv7 (and probably other things come in), working down to hitting 12s v 6, not doubling etc. Personally (I don't count - shame on me) is to appreciate the types of things to do when the count is "bad", "average+", "good" etc. Naturally if you can get to "+3" rather than "+4" and know it's when to do X but not Y then even better.

If you have a simple blackjack spreadsheet (which works out infinite deck strategy) then play around with the ratio of tens in the deck and see how the decisions change (rather than an exact "when"); I suspect splitting 9s vs 9 is nearly one of the last things to go.

  • Jump to: