tweedlover
tweedlover
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 1
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
February 10th, 2013 at 4:27:11 AM permalink
Hi there,

I'm a new member - and I've just started trying to beat the house using basic strategy. I'm at the stage where I'm pretty comfortable with it and am starting to try to work in hilo.

But, I've noticed that on the wizard's really clear explanation there is what look like an inconsistency in the basic strategy.


--If you have a 14 versus a 10, basic strategy tells you to hit. Makes sense because you want to make 17.

--If you have 7,7 versus a 10, it tells you to stick... (!)

I understand these odds were created by 1bn runs on a computer and respect them for that but I've no idea why the odds would change in these two situations - can anyone enlighten me?


I was using all the standard filters.

1 Deck,
Dealer stands on soft 17
Double after split allowed
Surrennder not allowed
Dealer peeks for bj

Thanks,

TL
MangoJ
MangoJ
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 905
Joined: Mar 12, 2011
February 10th, 2013 at 4:48:18 AM permalink
Your goal is to beat the dealer, not reaching 17 (actually 17 is a losing hand).

A huge chunk of the probability space to beat the dealer is to draw to 21. If you have 7,7 vs 10 you would need to draw a 7 to reach 21. However most of the 7s in the deck you already hold in your hand, especially in a single deck game (where you hold half of all 7s).

If you have a different 14 (i.e. 8+6) all four 7s are available in the deck to be drawn. This is why you would want to stand on 7,7 vs 10, but draw on any other 14.

This effect of card removal is only present in small number of decks, especially in single deck.
1BB
1BB
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 5339
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
February 10th, 2013 at 4:53:52 AM permalink
Hit it in negative counts.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
LonesomeGambler
LonesomeGambler
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 241
Joined: Aug 19, 2011
February 10th, 2013 at 10:24:22 AM permalink
FWIW, the 77 v T S play is only for single deck, not for multiple decks (including DD). As mentioned, this is due to the effect of removal of 7s in the deck. Since there are only 2 more 7s left to deal, the odds of making a 21 shrink dramatically.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 2946
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
February 10th, 2013 at 12:00:46 PM permalink
As has been said the importance of hitting vs standing is your chances of getting 21 (and to a lesser extent 20). In single deck play, your cards have a large effect, especially 77, but also some 15s and most 16s. In multiple decks the effect of each individual card is less, so there need to be more out/gone to change from basic strategy. Usually this is simplified by mentioning "the count", so by and large it's correct to hit 14 in most 4 or more decks hands. There are some close decisions, e.g. 16vs10, 12vs4 etc. which do flip depending on cards gone.
Most "strategies" assume you can only see (and remember) cards you've got this hand and the dealer's upcard - hence single deck has some special cases that more decks don't tend to have.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
March 24th, 2013 at 7:46:15 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
WangSanJose
WangSanJose
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 109
Joined: May 2, 2012
March 25th, 2013 at 10:03:59 PM permalink
I also have a basic strategy problem.
Even though I know that if I mastered the deviation chart, basic strategy decision doesn't matter anymore. But I wonder why every basic strategy engine on the internet shows that:
6 deck, Stand soft 17 game, A7 against 2, the basic strategy says to STAND.
But with 6 deck, Hit soft 17 game, A7 against 2, the basic strategy says to HIT.

However, the deviation number for both rules, A7 against 2, the index number is 0.

If the index is 0 for both rules, why is there a difference in Basic Strategy Charts, it doesn't make sense to me..
Can someone please explain?
Great
MangoJ
MangoJ
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 905
Joined: Mar 12, 2011
March 25th, 2013 at 10:20:40 PM permalink
As you see for the H17 and S17 game, both options are quite close in EV.

Keep in mind that no counting system could yield 100% playing efficiency. While the index 0 might not be perfect for A7 vs 2 (and no other cards seen), it might still be the best index for the overall game.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
March 26th, 2013 at 5:20:42 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
March 26th, 2013 at 6:08:53 AM permalink
Quote: tweedlover

...I've just started trying to beat the house using basic strategy.

Fighting BS one post at a time!
  • Jump to: