How long have your losing streaks gone on for?
BTW the longest I've ever heard of one going on for is one year.
Quote: BigJerI'm in one now and can't shake it. I've won only 10 out of my last 30+ or so sessions. I have faith in the math but jeez these are brutal.
BTW the longest I've ever heard of one going on for is one year.
Are you a card counter or other advantage player, or just playing basic strategy? Sorry if this context is inferable from your past posts, I don't read everything and have a poor memory.
Quote: AcesAndEightsAre you a card counter or other advantage player, or just playing basic strategy? Sorry if this context is inferable from your past posts, I don't read everything and have a poor memory.
Yes I am a BJ counter/AP. Pretty good at it too.
Quote: WASHOO2Play the proper method with common sense ....... not with math.
Same thing.
Quote: BigJerSame thing.
You have a sliver of an edge with counting,
the losing streaks are inevitable. Its like
having 51 red marbles in a bag and 49 blue
ones. You want a red one, but don't be dismayed
if you get a dozen blue ones in a row sometimes,
its gonna happen.
Quote: BigJerI'm in one now and can't shake it. I've won only 10 out of my last 30+ or so sessions. I have faith in the math but jeez these are brutal.
BTW the longest I've ever heard of one going on for is one year.
It really depends on how long your sessions are. "One year" is meaningless; it depends how often you play, and how long you play when you do play. If you are playing 8 hrs / day, then one year is a massive losing streak. If you play once a week for 20 minutes it's not that big of a deal.
Remember that in blackjack, even if you are playing with an edge, you still lose more hands than you win. Your edge comes from the fact that your winners win more than your losers lose due to bigger bets out with + count, doubling in favorable situations, and BJ paying 3:2. So, if your sessions are very short, you will still lose more than 50% of your sessions (although your winning sessions will be larger than your losing sessions).
So, number of sessions isn't that meaningful. How many max bets, over about how many hands played? Do you know how many standard deviations below your expectation you are over this stretch? Remember that in a group of 200 players, you'd expect one of those people to be in the midst of a minus-3-standard-deviation-run. It sucks when it's you but if you play long enough it will eventually happen. Just don't let it affect your play.
It's also worth making sure that you really do have an edge in the game you are playing. Are you sure that the penetration is good enough that you are getting good counts often enough to have a long term edge?
I'm sure I haven't said anything here that you don't already know, but sometimes it helps to just reset your thinking "back to the basics". Also if you had a particularly lucky streak for a while your mental expectations might be higher than your actual edge. I have won $5k+ spreading $100-$400 over a few sessions that totaled a couple of hours, but of course that is incredibly lucky and is much higher than my actual edge. It also means that I should not be too surprised when I lose about that amount in a similar amount of time in the same game.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIt really depends on how long your sessions are. "One year" is meaningless; it depends how often you play, and how long you play when you do play. If you are playing 8 hrs / day, then one year is a massive losing streak. If you play once a week for 20 minutes it's not that big of a deal.
Remember that in blackjack, even if you are playing with an edge, you still lose more hands than you win. Your edge comes from the fact that your winners win more than your losers lose due to bigger bets out with + count, doubling in favorable situations, and BJ paying 3:2. So, if your sessions are very short, you will still lose more than 50% of your sessions (although your winning sessions will be larger than your losing sessions).
So, number of sessions isn't that meaningful. How many max bets, over about how many hands played? Do you know how many standard deviations below your expectation you are over this stretch? Remember that in a group of 200 players, you'd expect one of those people to be in the midst of a minus-3-standard-deviation-run. It sucks when it's you but if you play long enough it will eventually happen. Just don't let it affect your play.
It's also worth making sure that you really do have an edge in the game you are playing. Are you sure that the penetration is good enough that you are getting good counts often enough to have a long term edge?
I'm sure I haven't said anything here that you don't already know, but sometimes it helps to just reset your thinking "back to the basics". Also if you had a particularly lucky streak for a while your mental expectations might be higher than your actual edge. I have won $5k+ spreading $100-$400 over a few sessions that totaled a couple of hours, but of course that is incredibly lucky and is much higher than my actual edge. It also means that I should not be too surprised when I lose about that amount in a similar amount of time in the same game.
I do get all of this.
I was just wondering what members losing streaks were like.
Variance is a freaking evil bitch! Hang in there and she'll go bother someone else.
Quote: MakingBookI used to be a bookie. My edge was between 6%-8%, and I have endured a 3 month "losing streak."
Variance is a freaking evil bitch! Hang in there and she'll go bother someone else.
Thanks!
Quote: wlbngr316I know this is an old thread and I'm brand new on this forum. I was searching for longest losing streaks in BJ when I came across this. I live in KS, we have a new casino here with basically the same odds as vegas for most table games. They deal a 6 deck shoe, etc etc. I've been playing BJ for 20+ years and I'm by no means a counter or a pro, but I've got the basic strategy memorized, but I don't use it 100% of the time, probably more like 95%. Anyway- I'm on a 15 sessions losing streak. Yes, FIFTEEN. Each session 4-6-8 hours and was only even up 1 time in those 15 sessions. I've tried 1st, 3rd....every seat! I'm still in disbelief. I'm a recreational player, but to the tone of 34K that I'm down, I don't know what to do. I feel like if I go back and I do manage to win a little back, that I won't stop because I have that 34K number in my head that I'm down, and I know if I get lucky and hit a good streak that I will want to stick around and chase my losings- and we all know what happens then. But I just can't believe it....15 trips to the casino in a 3 week period and a lose every time. I was calling my friends when I went 3 times in a row and lost and we were joking about it. I haven't even mentioned to anyone that the streak is still alive. I'm going in a few hours and will update later tonight, but I'm certain it will be 16.
You're not a pro and you still play 5x a week for 4-8 hours a day? I think that's more hours than some pros put in (kewlj? Care to comment?)
How much do you usually bet?
Quote: wlbngr316I'm on a 15 sessions losing streak. Yes, FIFTEEN. Each session 4-6-8 hours
did you know BJ has low standard deviation and what that means?
Quote: wlbngr316I've got the basic strategy memorized, but I don't use it 100% of the time, probably more like 95%.
so, you are helping insure a loss. What excuse is there for knowing the right play and not doing it?
Quote: wlbngr316I know this is an old thread and I'm brand new on this forum. I was searching for longest losing streaks in BJ when I came across this. I live in KS, we have a new casino here with basically the same odds as vegas for most table games. They deal a 6 deck shoe, etc etc. I've been playing BJ for 20+ years and I'm by no means a counter or a pro, but I've got the basic strategy memorized, but I don't use it 100% of the time, probably more like 95%. Anyway- I'm on a 15 sessions losing streak. Yes, FIFTEEN. Each session 4-6-8 hours and was only even up 1 time in those 15 sessions. I've tried 1st, 3rd....every seat! I'm still in disbelief. I'm a recreational player, but to the tone of 34K that I'm down, I don't know what to do. I feel like if I go back and I do manage to win a little back, that I won't stop because I have that 34K number in my head that I'm down, and I know if I get lucky and hit a good streak that I will want to stick around and chase my losings- and we all know what happens then. But I just can't believe it....15 trips to the casino in a 3 week period and a lose every time. I was calling my friends when I went 3 times in a row and lost and we were joking about it. I haven't even mentioned to anyone that the streak is still alive. I'm going in a few hours and will update later tonight, but I'm certain it will be 16.
A losing streak of 100 hours or so is not unusual even for a top professional card counter.
Just throwing out the 34k figure doesn't tell us anything without knowing unit size, hands played etc. Whatever house edge you're playing against is increased by not adhering to perfect basis strategy. You don't know what to do? I'll suggest the obvious. Learn to count. I assume you've at least dabbled in it sometime in the last 20 years. How did that go?
Hard to help insure a loss when they come 7-8 in a row. I'm sure there's much more to it, but like I said, I'm just a novelist (degenerate) player that got in over my head.
Quote: BigJerYes I am a BJ counter/AP. Pretty good at it too.
Oops. Something is wrong here.
Being realistic, I think winning one out of three sessions is good. The question becomes how much do you win in the winning sessions and how much do you lose in your losing sessions?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou're not a pro and you still play 5x a week for 4-8 hours a day? I think that's more hours than some pros put in (kewlj? Care to comment?)
20-40 hours a week? We'll split the difference and say 30 hours a week. Yes, I believe that is more than most pros play. Certainly more than the higher level pros play. Mid-level 'grinder' type players like myself play a little more than that, but there aren't too many of us left.
I do see problems with W-316's post. First he mentions bet ranges, $100-$1000 and $50-$300. Yet he is not a counter. I am interested to know what determines what his bet amounts are. I get the feeling there is a lot of chasing issues going on. Chasing involving betting too much and probably chasing as far as not playing properly. Maybe doubling or splitting hands that he shouldn't just trying for a bigger score. Another red flag is that comment that he went to a casino for a concert and ended up playing several hours. What kind of money was he carrying on him for a concert?
But ultimately, even there is no chasing/gambling issues, I don't find a losing streak of this magnitude at all unusual. Someone mentioned 100 hours. I have experienced losing streaks much longer than 100 hours and I play WITH an advantage. Last year comes to mind, when I was down about the same amount 34 grand after 15 weeks of play, which while I don't track my play in terms of time (hours) was probably 500+ hours of play. So if a player playing with an advantage can lose for 500+ hours, why would it be unusual for a player playing a negative EV game (basic strategy) to experience long longing periods? Playing neg Ev, it should be expected.
Quote: IbeatyouracesWinning 33% of your sessions as a counter is lousy.
I look at it differently: winning 33% of your sessions can be great if those sessions are marked by big wins. Losing 67% of your sessions with small wins is okay.
I would think a counter would know when to bet more so that he wins more when the count is right. And if that happens one-third of the time that's all you need to offset the more frequent losing sessions that have limited losses.
to put it another way: let your winning sessions run, and cut your losing sessions short.
Now... shouldn't a counter know when he has a winning session to let run?
Quote: wlbngr316Not a pro. I actually went to the casino for a concert and ended up on the tables as I knew I would. I lost a considerable amount that night and (like an asshat) I went back chasing....and chasing. That night I bought in for 5K, betting 100-1000 a hand, recouped the original loss and should've went home. Not the case. I ended up -7 the first night. About the same for the 2nd night. Ever since it's been 50-300 per hand. I'm the typical degenerate that the casinos love to see. But now I'm at 16 in a row and I'm snapped. No ones fault but my own.
I'm not going to give you my boring "over betting" speech that most don't want to hear. At least I'll try not to since you're not the new kid on the block.
When you had the full 5k your top bet, in my opinion, should not have exceeded $100. As the 5k started to shrink your top bet should have decreased.
You must be getting the royal comp treatment. Do you have a host?
Nothing more than complete idiotic superstition determined what I was wagering. When I got back to even the first night I had 1K out toward the end of a shoe and hit 4 in a row. Nothing more than superstition.
Pretty simple to get access to your cash from a casino
No comps, I even chose not to have a players card. I wasn't there after their BBQ utensils or T-shirts, just their cash and you see how well that worked for me. Next time (IF) I work up another bankroll and decide to pull this stunt again, I'll be certain to come back here and read and take into consideration the responses.
I don't keep detailed records, but most of my losses have accrued from poor impulse control resulting from 'It's only 15$' or 'I'll stop once I hit 500.', and things going sour.
My solution was to actually raise my denomination to the point where individual bets become uncomfortable, and high enough I can be satisfied with limited winnings, in terms of units. Since adopting this policy, I've done well enough to clear a 5-digit loss over the last two years (at the red chip level!) to finally become lifetime positive (as of yesterday, actually. *pops champagne...*).
Of course, variance can just as easily beat your head in on this as well, but it's worked for me so far.
Quote: VenthusThe trick to a winning session is to just pull ahead slightly and quit!...at least for me. Longer my session is, more likely I am to lose.
I don't keep detailed records, but most of my losses have accrued from poor impulse control resulting from 'It's only 15$' or 'I'll stop once I hit 500.', and things going sour.
My solution was to actually raise my denomination to the point where individual bets become uncomfortable, and high enough I can be satisfied with limited winnings, in terms of units. Since adopting this policy, I've done well enough to clear a 5-digit loss over the last two years (at the red chip level!) to finally become lifetime positive (as of yesterday, actually. *pops champagne...*).
Of course, variance can just as easily beat your head in on this as well, but it's worked for me so far.
Life is one big martingale!
You know that this is not going to end well if you keep going, right?
I consider it the sessions/time that passed until I reach a new All Time High (ATH).
So from my records when I was playing very often.
The longest that it took me to reach a new ATH was around 8 months, that was 93 sessions for a total of 239 hours.
During that period I had the biggest ever drop, my Bankroll dropped around 30% in the first 5 months and it took another 3 months to recover.
During that 5 months with the biggest drop, (49 sessions, 145 hours), I had 25 losing sessions and 24 winning sessions.
Note that I play more when I am losing, so my average loss is quite higher than my average win so same number of winning and losing sessions translates to big loss. Also I play relatively long sessions compared to what you can get away in the US.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceLife is one big martingale!
You know that this is not going to end well if you keep going, right?
Yeah. I've been decreasing my trip bankroll steadily and plan on stopping when I finally get a trip that blows it out.
Right now though, my outlook is 'I'm positive, things are trending upwards, I'm enjoying it, and (perhaps most importantly--) I'm still lucky, so full speed ahead!'
Besides, it can't really end up worse than when I started.
I understand everyone has a bad run of luck. I don't go looking to break the house. My point is this: You take ANYONE who has any knowledge of the game whatsoever, give them 18 different trips to the tables @2K each trip, and you bet them that he can't double his money at least once in a 3-6 hour period. That's a wager no one will except.
There has to be a numbers whiz on here...?? Can one of you calculate the odds of that happening, or am I seeing this totally wrong?
The blackjack' house edge calculator' that I used to compare the house rules here puts the REALISTIC house edge at 0.66977%, if anyone so cares to figure the odds.
Man, I don't mean to ramble on and look for excuses as to why I'm losing. I'm just frustrated as hell.
Quote: wlbngr316Are there any games inside a casino that you should expect a positive outcome on?
Yes, if you play them well enough. Blackjack is one of them!
Quote: wlbngr316Axiom- I agree that if you're an amateur (as I) and you play it well, that you should still expect to lose, just not so gawd damned consecutively!!
I mean, it's definitely a bad run.
Your sessions ARE pretty long, though. I wonder what your chances of losing any one session are. Probably pretty high. It would not surprise me if 2/3 of your sessions are losers. That would put 15 losses in a row as a 1-in-438 shot, which really is not that far out there.
You could always play shorter sessions... not that that would change your long-term results, but you would have a higher percentage of winners.
Quote: wlbngr316Axiom- My session last night was 2hrs. Started out playing min $25 table. First hand I got 7-4 vs. a 6. I double, get a 5, dealer flips a 10 and spikes a 4. I never recouped from the first hand. I had (6) 11's vs. a bust, doubled all and never once hit a 10. In fact, I lost every one of the bets. I won 3-4 DD hands in the two hours. Uncertain of how many I actually bet.
Can I ask how you decide when to increase your bet?
Quote: wlbngr316Axiom- My session last night was 2hrs. Started out playing min $25 table. First hand I got 7-4 vs. a 6. I double, get a 5, dealer flips a 10 and spikes a 4. I never recouped from the first hand. I had (6) 11's vs. a bust, doubled all and never once hit a 10. In fact, I lost every one of the bets. I won 3-4 DD hands in the two hours. Uncertain of how many I actually bet.
Do you play at the Aria? Revel?
