BJ Promotion

A local casino has a promotion going on. A player gets a chance to spin a wheel and get something like $25 to $500 table play IF he is dealt 5 or more cards AND beats the dealer.

My question is:

For a player playing the basic strategy, how often does he get a hand with 5 or more cards and out of those how often does he win?

You have to figure out what the average prize on the wheel is. Shouldn't be hard to count all the prize values and determine the average prize. 5 cards doesn't come up that often, and it's usually going to be a high total, so you will beat the dealer most of the time. There will be some strategy adjustments like hitting instead of doubling in some situations, and hitting instead of standing in others. Depending on the blackjack rules, this could very well swing the game to a small player advantage.

A good many 5 card hands are probably winners. It just seems more likely that 5 cards will add up to 19, 20, 21 than 17.

There surely would be some strategy change variations with this rule. Things like it might be advantage to hit a 4 card 12 vs a dealer bust card. Maybe even a 4 card 13. vs a dealer bust card. Things like that. Would have to run some sims to figure for sure.

Also depends on the table min. You're at a huge advantage if you can play $5 BJ on that game. My guess is you'd hit any 4 card 16.

Quote: kewlj

A good many 5 card hands are probably winners. It just seems more likely that 5 cards will add up to 19, 20, 21 than 17.

There surely would be some strategy change variations with this rule. Things like it might be advantage to hit a 4 card 12 vs a dealer bust card. Maybe even a 4 card 13. vs a dealer bust card. Things like that. Would have to run some sims to figure for sure.

You know your stuff kewlj, but in this case i think he is underestimating the value of the promo for some bettors. For a $5 bettor, I think there would be dramatic changes in the strategy once you got to 4 cards. In Spanish21, you hit everything as if you has 1 less in your total for a shot at 3:2 if you hit 21.

What I mean: normally you hit 13 vs 5, stay on 14vs 5, but if you have 4 cards, you hit 14 vs 5 for a shot at 3:2 if you hit a 5 card 21. This applies against all dealer bust cards. For the measly shot at $2.50 on a $5 bet.

For a shot at $25-500, (most likely $25), a low bettor could hit almost any 4 cards. People will think you are crazy, but I bet hitting a 4 card 16 vs a 6 with a $5 bet is worth it.

Ok math guys How many hands on average playing BS until my 5 card hand beats the dealer ?

Just thought in bs I would split aces, maybe not now. LOL

Quote: buzzpaff

Ok math guys How many hands on average playing BS until my 5 card hand beats the dealer ?

Just thought in bs I would split aces, maybe not now. LOL

How many decks?

Quote: MalcomD

How many decks?

It wouldn't be worth it to break basic strategy for a chance to win 25$-500, but if you are feeling lucky only hit more than you should when the dealer has a 5 or a 6 as an upcard, and only when you have a total of 6 and below or a pair of aces. Also what is the minimum at the table to be able to spin the wheel? Also I am assuming the wheel is like the big six wheel where there are 2 500$ and a variable amount of other values to win, have you seen how many other values are on the wheel? If the bet is small enough, and if the odds of winning 500$ are large enough there may be a very small advantage for a player who has a soft hand or a hard hand less than 6 too try for it if the dealer is holding 5 or 6 any other number and it makes no sense at all and any bet higher than 5 dollar minimum makes very little sense, but its probably not worth it. If you are a counter, or AP than this sounds like it is possible to beat. Its been awhile since I've done this kind of math, like since college but recently since getting into blackjack I've been practicing my math so I'm gonna try to figure it out roughly.

Quote: MalcomD

It wouldn't be worth it to break basic strategy for a chance to win 25$-500

It IS worth is to deviate from basic, even if you assume you will only get $25 every time. The complicated part is that it depends on the size of your original bet. The smaller your base bet ($5?), the more deviations you should make.

The answer to the OP depends on whether you use BS, or change your strategy based on the promotion. I suspect +EV to a small bettor who makes correct deviations.

Quote: dwheatley

It IS worth is to deviate from basic, even if you assume you will only get $25 every time. The complicated part is that it depends on the size of your original bet. The smaller your base bet ($5?), the more deviations you should make.

The answer to the OP depends on whether you use BS, or change your strategy based on the promotion. I suspect +EV to a small bettor who makes correct deviations.

It is dependent on the deck, minimum bet allowed, and the chances to win 25$+. IT would only be worth it on a 5 or 6 where the dealer has the greatest chance on busting.

Quote: MalcomD

How many decks?

Gee, math guys are all alike. Insist on proper data before giving an answer !

I went to a local joint that did this one day...

$5 min bet/$100 max

The tables were packed...with very bad players. lol

prizes= $20 (real chips) $50 (chips) $100 (chips) free hotel stay, free dinner at the steak house ($100 value) and free buffets.

I played for 7 hours...flat bet $5 the WHOLE time...I hit it 7 times= 3-$20 and 4-$50.

End results up $15...

The same joint is doing this again in their "party pit". prizes are $25-$500 on the wheel. I haven't had time to go play it as they only do this particular promotion on Wednesdays.

It is a pretty good deal if you don't mind GRINDING for a while. I thre BS out the window and only tried to get the promo. (turns out if it had been a normal session it would have been great...i won the first 7 hands...all with $5 bet lol).

I say go for it, if you have the patience and time.

Gee Ricky, was the cocktail waitress cute ? I have to assume you drank a lot. I mean 50 hands an hour, sloppy play at 1% HE and
you would be down about $17.50 after 7 hours. You start by winning $35 when you sit down and wind up losing $245 after 7
hours ??

Yeah, that is some bad variance if you couldn't get a bigger profit with a $260 overlay.

Quote: debitncredit

A local casino has a promotion going on. A player gets a chance to spin a wheel and get something like $25 to $500 table play IF he is dealt 5 or more cards AND beats the dealer.
My question is:
For a player playing the basic strategy, how often does he get a hand with 5 or more cards and out of those how often does he win?

According to Wizzard a BJ Rule variation "5-card win pays 3-2", this rule is worth +0.33%.
Wizzard does not clarify if this means exactly 5 cards or 5 cards plus, but I think it means 5 cards plus (and in any case 6 and 7 cards are quite rare)
Under such rule a 5 card win is worth 0.5 extra units, which means that 5 cards Win Hands occur 0.66% of the time. That's the the figure only of 5 cards hands that win. The total number of 5 card would be more than double this but that is an irrelevant figure anyway.

Assuming that you only win $25 on the wheel
So if winning 0.5 extra unit is worth +0.33% then the extra Ev will be
1 unit = +0.66% Bet $25
2 units= +1.32% Bet $12.50
2.5 units=+1.65% Bet $10
5 units= +3.3% Bet $5

The actual figures are bigger than these as the Average win on the Wheel is more than $25.
Calculating the average wheel win, you can calculate the extra Ev using the ratio of the average wheel win to your Bet.

The above assume standard Basic Strategy take. If the ratio of the wheel win to the prize is big (like Bet $5) then there would be also basic strategy changes.

You did not specify the other rules of the game. If the game has a normal Ev of around -0.5% then with the wheel rule it will have at least an Ev of +2.8%.
So a pretty good game for a low roller.

I went to that casino to check it out. I just played the basic strategy betting $5 on a 8 deck table. As I recall it, the wheel you get to spin has 12 slots: 1 $100, 1 $50, 1 $20, and 9 $10. I spun it once in 2 hours for a $10. I think it's an okay promotion. I think it actually kept me from overbetting.