canneopae
canneopae
Joined: Aug 21, 2012
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August 21st, 2012 at 10:39:12 AM permalink
I am pretty sure that I am getting bit repeatedly by the variance bug, but am looking for confirmation.

It seems that at real high counts (using Zen) in a DD game (no DAS, no RSA, H17) I am running into stiff hands and dealer 20's fairly often. Sometimes hand after hand in the same shuffle. In essence, at a 1-6 spread ($100 units) I am getting murdered. Lose 4 or 5 hands on the high end of the spread hurts a bit. It takes forever at the lower end of the spread to make up $2k.

What do you think? Deviation? Variance?

It makes me nuts to spend so much time building up the bankroll just to blow it in a couple hands where I am supposed to have the (slim) advantage..

Grr.. Makes me want to play Keno, or, throw all my money out the window in the parking lot.. Same effect either way..

Thanks!
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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August 21st, 2012 at 10:43:38 AM permalink
I would say variance.

If you're going to throw your money into the parking lot, however, I have a much better idea. The first step involves me PMing you my P.O. Box number and City...
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Flynn
Flynn
Joined: Aug 18, 2011
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August 21st, 2012 at 10:46:50 AM permalink
Would be sweet if you would win the jackpot at keno, you know the irony that you loose at an +EV game but that you win big at a game with +-30% house edge!
My favorite bet: Double Down!
canneopae
canneopae
Joined: Aug 21, 2012
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August 21st, 2012 at 10:50:02 AM permalink
Clearly.. At that point, I would just quit trying the AP life.. Thanks for the humor..
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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August 21st, 2012 at 11:03:13 AM permalink
Assuming that you are playing correctly and are in fact playing a +EV game....then variance. Variance can be a bi*ch. In both 2010 and 2011, I had 6 month periods in which I lost money. I play for a living and play almost everyday. I am talking about 45,000 and 30,000+ hand stretches at a time with negative results. My 2010, 6 month period resulted in a 'win' of + $15. Pretty hard to live off of that. :( My 2011, 6 month period was even worse. Resulted in a five figure loss. Even harder to live off of that. lol Both of these years ended in total wins for the year of upper 5 figures, which was reasonably close to expectation. Again, my point being, variance is incredible at this game. That is the whole reason, a very substantial bankroll is required.

It certainly is true that what happens at the higher counts with your larger bets out is going to greatly effect your results in the short term. If you lose a number of these max bet opportunities, especially with double downs and splits, it will set you back short-term and 'seems' like it takes forever to recover. But if you focus on long-term results and getting to the long-term as quickly as possible, these short term fluctuations start to become meaningless, and your expectation will fall pretty close to where it should.
canneopae
canneopae
Joined: Aug 21, 2012
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August 21st, 2012 at 11:15:34 AM permalink
Thanks kewlj.. I think I read your story in a different thread a few days ago. I am starting to lose track since I have been scouring the boards for a topic that closely resembled mine..

Indexes help, but not all the time of course.. Of course, I am not telling anyone anything they don't know.

I just wish there was a way of controlling loss during high count periods.. Then again, I could just be at the unlucky end of the pool right now..

All things considered, I am probably overbetting my 20k bankroll. Maybe the stress reliever would be to just reduce to a 1-6 $25 unit bet..
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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August 21st, 2012 at 11:40:30 AM permalink
Quote: canneopae



I just wish there was a way of controlling loss during high count periods.. Then again, I could just be at the unlucky end of the pool right now..

All things considered, I am probably overbetting my 20k bankroll. Maybe the stress reliever would be to just reduce to a 1-6 $25 unit bet..



Even without knowing any details, it is safe to say that using a spread of $100 - $600 is definitely overbetting a $20k BR.

Two more thoughts about variance. It is without a doubt the hardest part of card-counting AP to learn and more importantly learn to be able to deal with. But as much as we see and talk about variance in a negative light, especially when we are going through it, Variance is what makes card-counting AP possible. Without huge variance, instead of a few hundred or thousand or what ever the often debated number of successful card counters is, there would be a million and the casino industry would altar the game further to make or attempt to make it unbeatable. So in a strange way.....Variance is our friend. :)
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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August 21st, 2012 at 12:03:15 PM permalink
Canneopae, go online and search for a book called
You've Got Heat. There are two volumes. You can
download them as ebooks for $15 each. They chronicle
a card counters exploits in Vegas over an 8 year
period. He gives details of just about every session
he played during that time. Its very entertaining
and informative. He constantly was fighting negative
variance and it can be very frustrating. But because
you have a slight edge, the dealer will have worse
negative variance than you in the end.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
4andaKicker
4andaKicker
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
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August 21st, 2012 at 2:01:46 PM permalink
Doesn't it all feel like such a waste when you consider the amount of misery involved in playing blackjack for a "living"? I mean, in essence, you have to be independently wealthy to afford to play at a level where the potential winnings could support a decent (whatever that is) lifestyle for you and your family. When I played blackjack, I often got the same feeling one gets at a carnival where you spend ten times the value of a stuffed animal to "win" it.

I do agree that you are the unlucky victim of variance, and wish I could say it will get better, but there's no guarantee of that...
MangoJ
MangoJ
Joined: Mar 12, 2011
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August 21st, 2012 at 3:19:29 PM permalink
There are two issues you need to address:

First: For your high count you want to play your max bet. Keep in mind this will increase variance a lot, while you have an advantage of only a few %. Your bankroll swings are dominated by those max bet hands.

Second: On high counts you like to split and double more than you would normally want. This is a much more riskier way to play, and will further increases variance.

If you are eaten by your variance, you need to recalculate your max bet with respect to your bankroll. Do not only scale your bets up with increasing bankroll, but do also scale your bets down when you lose.
Second thing: Instead of doubling your bet, you are far better off playing 2 spots. This way you still double the EV, but the combined variance of both bets will not double.

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