Question about expected return, from the unwashed masses

The Wizard's "Blackjack House Edge Calculator" is well documented but is based on an important premise - that people play well. With all of the horrible plays at the table, what is the expected return for a casino? Certainly it is much higher than the Wizard's calculator.

Over a long enough time frame, an expected rate of return should be found empirically. Are there any casino execs out there that can shed some light on this? I don't believe this answer can be solved mathematically, because we would be "guessing" at just how bad the players were.

Any ideas on how to tackle this question?

Couldn't you just remove all doubling, surrender, and splitting to get a good idea? I don't think people play drastically different with respect to hitting a 14 vs 2-6 or hitting a 17 vs anything.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/ has 'Mimic the Dealer' which is a strategy I would expect the average person playing blackjack for the first time might play. (Which is to say it was basically the strategy I used before I learned basic strategy) and it has a house edge of 5.48%. so maybe people who are a little more sophisticated and also play a little smarter against a low card showing might drop that down to like 4%?

It did seem from my last time at a stand on soft 17 table that 80% of the people played decent basic strategy though.

I've heard they work it out for comp purposes as twice the BS edge. Not sure how true that is.

Part of the rating process is determining how good a players is and they have different rates for different categories. 3 different players all averaging $100 per hand could be classified 3 different categories. Something like bad player, basic strategy player and possible advantage player (can't remember the exact terminology of different categories), and will each receive different, or in some cases no comps based on the same amount of play.

Quote: moewells100

The Wizard's "Blackjack House Edge Calculator" is well documented but is based on an important premise - that people play well.

Some gambling formulas assume not just "playing well" but absolutely perfect play and allow for no tips to the dealers or the waitress. These Risk Of Ruin charts are prime examples of allowing only perfect bets and never allowing any deviation such as might be due to simple errors, inattention, fatigue, alcohol consumption, etc.

Real World situations tend to be different than these ideal mathematical assumptions. That is often one reason why card counters do well in their basement recreation rooms but do rather poorly amidst the din of a casino floor.

WoO On ratings&HE

Look at the bottom of the page. According to the Wizard's "secret" information, here's industry comps. Not an exact answer, but that's kind of the idea.

Consider that page and its entry for Sic Bo: House Edge 8percent.
Well, 2.76 is a good way to play Sic Bo and if you never vary your bets ... will you really be comped at an 8percent rate?

Also, some of those Blackjack speeds are off if there are all those side bets to be serviced and explained.

Roulette 38 per hour? Now that seems particularly low.

Quote: kulin

'Mimic the Dealer' which is a strategy I would expect the average person playing blackjack for the first time might play.

I have no idea what most first time players are thinking (or if they even are), but they tend to fall into 2 very distinct categories.

- Buy in for $20 and last only a few hands, then leave with their tail between their legs, probably to never try blackjack again.

- Win insane amounts of money making almost exclusively the wrong move (according to BS), usually pissing off everyone else at the table. The only time they make the "right" play is just chance. They probably get addicted to the easy money and lose it all back and more.

Quote: kulin

It did seem from my last time at a stand on soft 17 table that 80% of the people played decent basic strategy though.

I don't know how much time you spend in casinos, but when you're there for 40+ hours a week you come to realize that many players make the right move on the easy stuff most of the time, but it's a very, very rare player that plays anything close to perfect basic strategy.

Quote: MonkeyMonkey

I don't know how much time you spend in casinos, but when you're there for 40+ hours a week you come to realize that many players make the right move on the easy stuff most of the time, but it's a very, very rare player that plays anything close to perfect basic strategy.

Admittedly not a ton. But it was just on my last trip playing at Mirage at the $25 limit stand on soft 17 table, except for the occasional drunk lady and this one army vet who sat down and had the dealer basically play his hands for him, everyone was splitting and doubling at the right times, even the little stuff like splitting 4s vs 5 or 6 only.

I figured it was because the tables were kind of hidden. They were in the pit deepest in the casino (near the high roller slots) and in the pit they were the furthest from any of the edges people might walk by (in the middle of the pit on the side opposite the main walkway.

Quote: kulin

Admittedly not a ton. But it was just on my last trip playing at Mirage at the $25 limit stand on soft 17 table, except for the occasional drunk lady and this one army vet who sat down and had the dealer basically play his hands for him, everyone was splitting and doubling at the right times, even the little stuff like splitting 4s vs 5 or 6 only.

I figured it was because the tables were kind of hidden. They were in the pit deepest in the casino (near the high roller slots) and in the pit they were the furthest from any of the edges people might walk by (in the middle of the pit on the side opposite the main walkway.

The table minimum could be the reason all by itself. Most players don't player $25/hand, and those that do usually have a better grasp on BS.

Quote: MonkeyMonkey

The table minimum could be the reason all by itself. Most players don't player $25/hand, and those that do usually have a better grasp on BS.

Yes, it seems the five dollar tables are full of the desperate and the whimsical whereas higher level bettors do seem to know what they are doing at least most of the time.

Even at the lower limit tables you often see dedicated players doing Basic Strategy or clearly knowing its a deviation if they take a flyer on some set of circumstances. Tourists may be ignorant, but the same people there day after day tend to play "correctly".

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I see plenty of green chippers (and up) that will not surrender, will not hit S18,
will take "even money", and have no clue how to play a H17 game.

The red chippers are aware they do not know basic strategy, and play slow.
The green chippers "think" they know how to play, but they are mostly clueless also.

Most people play what I call "dealer basic strategy." These are they plays dealers see
most often, and "think" they are correct plays.

The perfect basic strategy player is a rare animal.

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