Death of a thousand cuts

I refer to a situaton in which you are hitting and getting small card after small card, usually aces, 2's or 3's, yet the dealer has a face card and you aren't at 17 yet. Do you just go by your gut and stand when you've got 5 or 6 cards and the odds of continuing this streak are dismal, hoping the dealer will bust, or is there some kind of strategy to use? Given it's only one hand, is it better to just tempt fate and risk losing the hand?

Play basic strategy unless you are counting cards or see a hole card.

--Dorothy

Quote: derik999

I refer to a situaton in which you are hitting and getting small card after small card, usually aces, 2's or 3's, yet the dealer has a face card and you aren't at 17 yet. Do you just go by your gut and stand when you've got 5 or 6 cards and the odds of continuing this streak are dismal, hoping the dealer will bust, or is there some kind of strategy to use? Given it's only one hand, is it better to just tempt fate and risk losing the hand?

NEVER "go with your gut."

i read somewhere (not sure if on a wizard site or not) that if you're at a full table and have a multi-card 16, take a look around and see what's on the table and factor that in.

Quote: QFIT

Quote: derik999

I refer to a situaton in which you are hitting and getting small card after small card, usually aces, 2's or 3's, yet the dealer has a face card and you aren't at 17 yet. Do you just go by your gut and stand when you've got 5 or 6 cards and the odds of continuing this streak are dismal, hoping the dealer will bust, or is there some kind of strategy to use? Given it's only one hand, is it better to just tempt fate and risk losing the hand?

NEVER "go with your gut."

Good point.

Quote: QFIT

Quote: derik999

I refer to a situaton in which you are hitting and getting small card after small card, usually aces, 2's or 3's, yet the dealer has a face card and you aren't at 17 yet. Do you just go by your gut and stand when you've got 5 or 6 cards and the odds of continuing this streak are dismal, hoping the dealer will bust, or is there some kind of strategy to use? Given it's only one hand, is it better to just tempt fate and risk losing the hand?

NEVER "go with your gut."

...because your gut is full of crap.

Quote: derik999

I refer to a situaton in which you are hitting and getting small card after small card, usually aces, 2's or 3's, yet the dealer has a face card and you aren't at 17 yet. Do you just go by your gut and stand when you've got 5 or 6 cards and the odds of continuing this streak are dismal, hoping the dealer will bust, or is there some kind of strategy to use? Given it's only one hand, is it better to just tempt fate and risk losing the hand?

If you are going to play using that logic, then you must also think that there can't possibly be another small card as the hole card and thus the dealer won't bust anyway. Now what? The proper play is the proper play regardless of how things may feel, so it is certainly not 'better' to tempt fate by playing the wrong decision. If you've played a lot, think of those times you're sitting on a multi-card 15 for example and then hit and been dealt a 5 or 6 for a strong hand. It happens. Of course the dealer can do it as well.

As another poster brought up, you could certainly stand on your 16s and reduce the house edge by a very small amount. But unless its a single deck game those revealed small cards do not do nearly enough to make staying the better decision for any other case, including 12-15 vs 10 and 12-16 vs 7, 8, 9 and ace.

In your situation, receiving another small card is only slightly less likely than receiving one after being dealt a 2-card stiff hand. Your mention of streaks is alluding to the gamblers fallacy far more than the true memory of multi-deck blackjack.

Quote: lowroller

i read somewhere (not sure if on a wizard site or not) that if you're at a full table and have a multi-card 16, take a look around and see what's on the table and factor that in.

The reasoning is, that although it's a very small sample, it eseentially is card counting.

Quote: wildqat

Quote: QFIT

NEVER "go with your gut."

...because your gut is full of crap.

While that's one of the funniest things I've read on this site in a while, a 'gut feel' can be more than that. It COULD be the result of a subconcious card count.

Oh, sure, the math may say something else. But math operates on the theory of large numbers. Unless you just got your money's worth at the buffet, a "gut feel" operates on something else. Use that feeling.