derik999
derik999
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
  • Threads: 15
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February 27th, 2010 at 6:49:26 AM permalink
I refer to a situaton in which you are hitting and getting small card after small card, usually aces, 2's or 3's, yet the dealer has a face card and you aren't at 17 yet. Do you just go by your gut and stand when you've got 5 or 6 cards and the odds of continuing this streak are dismal, hoping the dealer will bust, or is there some kind of strategy to use? Given it's only one hand, is it better to just tempt fate and risk losing the hand?
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
Joined: Nov 23, 2009
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February 27th, 2010 at 7:03:06 AM permalink
Play basic strategy unless you are counting cards or see a hole card.

--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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February 28th, 2010 at 6:48:17 AM permalink
Quote: derik999

I refer to a situaton in which you are hitting and getting small card after small card, usually aces, 2's or 3's, yet the dealer has a face card and you aren't at 17 yet. Do you just go by your gut and stand when you've got 5 or 6 cards and the odds of continuing this streak are dismal, hoping the dealer will bust, or is there some kind of strategy to use? Given it's only one hand, is it better to just tempt fate and risk losing the hand?



NEVER "go with your gut."
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
lowroller
lowroller
Joined: Feb 25, 2010
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February 28th, 2010 at 7:03:38 AM permalink
i read somewhere (not sure if on a wizard site or not) that if you're at a full table and have a multi-card 16, take a look around and see what's on the table and factor that in.
derik999
derik999
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 131
February 28th, 2010 at 7:10:01 AM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Quote: derik999

I refer to a situaton in which you are hitting and getting small card after small card, usually aces, 2's or 3's, yet the dealer has a face card and you aren't at 17 yet. Do you just go by your gut and stand when you've got 5 or 6 cards and the odds of continuing this streak are dismal, hoping the dealer will bust, or is there some kind of strategy to use? Given it's only one hand, is it better to just tempt fate and risk losing the hand?



NEVER "go with your gut."



Good point.
wildqat
wildqat
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 157
February 28th, 2010 at 8:18:49 AM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Quote: derik999

I refer to a situaton in which you are hitting and getting small card after small card, usually aces, 2's or 3's, yet the dealer has a face card and you aren't at 17 yet. Do you just go by your gut and stand when you've got 5 or 6 cards and the odds of continuing this streak are dismal, hoping the dealer will bust, or is there some kind of strategy to use? Given it's only one hand, is it better to just tempt fate and risk losing the hand?



NEVER "go with your gut."


...because your gut is full of crap.
pocketaces
pocketaces
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 158
March 1st, 2010 at 10:00:54 PM permalink
Quote: derik999

I refer to a situaton in which you are hitting and getting small card after small card, usually aces, 2's or 3's, yet the dealer has a face card and you aren't at 17 yet. Do you just go by your gut and stand when you've got 5 or 6 cards and the odds of continuing this streak are dismal, hoping the dealer will bust, or is there some kind of strategy to use? Given it's only one hand, is it better to just tempt fate and risk losing the hand?



If you are going to play using that logic, then you must also think that there can't possibly be another small card as the hole card and thus the dealer won't bust anyway. Now what? The proper play is the proper play regardless of how things may feel, so it is certainly not 'better' to tempt fate by playing the wrong decision. If you've played a lot, think of those times you're sitting on a multi-card 15 for example and then hit and been dealt a 5 or 6 for a strong hand. It happens. Of course the dealer can do it as well.

As another poster brought up, you could certainly stand on your 16s and reduce the house edge by a very small amount. But unless its a single deck game those revealed small cards do not do nearly enough to make staying the better decision for any other case, including 12-15 vs 10 and 12-16 vs 7, 8, 9 and ace.

In your situation, receiving another small card is only slightly less likely than receiving one after being dealt a 2-card stiff hand. Your mention of streaks is alluding to the gamblers fallacy far more than the true memory of multi-deck blackjack.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 2nd, 2010 at 5:24:22 AM permalink
Quote: lowroller

i read somewhere (not sure if on a wizard site or not) that if you're at a full table and have a multi-card 16, take a look around and see what's on the table and factor that in.

The reasoning is, that although it's a very small sample, it eseentially is card counting.


Quote: wildqat

Quote: QFIT

NEVER "go with your gut."

...because your gut is full of crap.

While that's one of the funniest things I've read on this site in a while, a 'gut feel' can be more than that. It COULD be the result of a subconcious card count.

Oh, sure, the math may say something else. But math operates on the theory of large numbers. Unless you just got your money's worth at the buffet, a "gut feel" operates on something else. Use that feeling.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗

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