MDawg Results Thread

Quote: Magister

Now if these pictures are in fact, pertaining to you, which also isn't proven, just implied, it might prove you are a higher limit player with some cash/assets. But I don't think anyone ever disputed that either did they?

🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️

Quote: MDawg

link to original post

Sweet heavens, those cards look beat. Squeeze game?

Standard midi Bacc table, picture taken during Covid.

Re: stock trading

"I always average down" and "I always win" DO NOT jive.

A losing strategy will NEVER result in a 100% win rate. EVER.


Don't really give a shit about the rest of your gimmick, only thing I see worth being jealous of is the Duran Duran tix. :P

Why of course it will and has, old sport!

But, this discussion would be better carried on elsewhere.

MDawg Investments

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Nuked Former Member

Now if these pictures are in fact, pertaining to you, which also isn't proven, just implied, it might prove you are a higher limit player with some cash/assets. But I don't think anyone ever disputed that either did they?

🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️
link to original post

Within this post I outline multiple times when you declined wagers and challenges with me.

Here's another one. I go with the Wizard to the cages of these two casinos and have them verify that these are my markers.



While we are at it, we may verify that the markers were paid (since you don't seem to understand that the only situation in which a customer would be able to have possession of his marker would be after redemption).

Let's just keep it simple. No cash. If it turns out these are not my markers, and I didn't pay them off, I leave WOV for good and never return. If it turns out they are mine, you leave WOV for good and never return. Submit to a complete and utter nuke by Admin.

Now, you going keep talking nonsense, or you going to put up? You know I don't consider you to be any sort of authority on casinos, but here is your chance to prove that your smart mouth opinion is valid.

24 Hours I leave this challenge up. Let me know A.Wolf.

Quote: MDawg

This has been a five year mission.

All of my session reports are accurate. However, I believe the total number of hands played, and the average wager per hand, would be required to make sense of the results. There were losing sessions, including huge losing sessions along the way. Some of those losing sessions were not in the Adventures of MDawg thread, they were posted elsewhere at WOV or at other forums, so those aren’t included in Mission146’s calculations. Mission146 did mention that he didn’t look at anything outside of the WOV Adventures thread and the one other forum.

These sessions were spread out over about a dozen or so casinos.

In any case, along the way, anyone wanting to challenge any session results could have undertaken the MDawg challenge

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Keep in mind too, that for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
link to original post

Hello, MDawg,

Your very comprehensive response (of which I only quoted above the beginning due to length), raises two questions for me.

The first is the bit where you say (quote truncated):

Quote: MDawg

There were losing sessions, including huge losing sessions along the way. Some of those losing sessions were not in the Adventures of MDawg thread, they were posted elsewhere at WOV or at other forums, so those aren’t included in Mission146’s calculations.
link to original post

Anything you would like to fill in there about the number or total amount lost in those losing sessions that do not appear in the Mission results?

I ask because on its face it plays into what Mental posted in this thread:

Quote: Mental

The distribution embedded in Mission's tables has a very small number of losses. What it does not have is any significant number of large losses.
link to original post

(quote truncated)

Mental’s theory as I understand it is that every session mentioned was accurate but that the histogram of results looks like a histogram that would be expected if a certain amount of losing sessions were not reported.

I didn’t think you would want that implication left standing, so wanted to tease out what I noticed explicitly in case you want to fill in more details.

My second question is about the you and Wiz meetup and the “about even” thing, but let me not ask for clarification on that now. Maybe later. Maybe never.

Thanks! Have always enjoyed the adventure thread though not the drama and suspension one-upmanship it tends to engender.

Thanks!

(We need CoachBelly.)

The Adventures of MDawg I thread started November 2019. That other forum from which Mission146 pulled results pretty much contains only trip reports from 2021 onwards as far as confined in one area I don't know if M146 found or used the other 2020 reports from that forum. 2020 was the Covid shut down but we started going back to Vegas Fall 2020, and had another 2020 trip before the shutdown.

So anything from Fall 2018 – Fall 2019 is missing, plus there were periods when I wasn’t posting session reports at WOV, including when I was suspended, and was posting them on one of the other two gambling forums (neither of which M146 looked at).

I was keen on reviewing M146’s results closely, but after I got suspended and whatever M146 was emailing me kept piling up I ended up just scrolling through his lists and not looking at them closely. I will assume that whatever M146 pulled he pulled accurately, but he could not have pulled what he did not access.

As far as Mental’s claim that he inputted every bit of M146’s data as it was posted on a crude HMTL forum like WOV in fifteen minutes, that sounds to me like a certain someone's claim that he had a shuffling machine programmed to cheat in about ten minutes, but I didn’t analyze or think about deeply whatever M.tal posted anyway. I think SooPoo is on the right track there with discounting the meaning one way or another anything "statistical" M.tal has to say about this particular matter. I guess what SooPoo and I are saying is that there may be a difference between forced hypothesis with a posteriori thinking and real world results.

But in any case, yes results are missing. Will I ever get around to figuring out what exactly those are and adding them to this project? Maybe.

Quote: Wizard

Somebody asked for a count of winning and losing sessions. To help see everything in one post, I present the following summary table of each day broken down by game. I would like to thank Mission for help in creating this table. It told him I didn't want any punctuation marks in the amount fields and to make his best guess where he wasn't sure. It is so big that I'm putting it in spoiler tags.

The Whole Enchilada

Date	Baccarat	Blackjack
11/15/2019	24000
11/21/2019	40000
11/24/2019	1400
11/25/2019	1560
12/29/2019		0
12/30/2019		1350
1/1/2020		600
1/2/2020		1000
1/4/2020	5300	-5000
1/5/2020	710
1/6/2020	450
1/7/2010	100
1/8/2020	6100
1/10/2020	1325
1/11/2020	3500
?	10565
?	31450
?	1200
?	4000
?	400
?	-20000
?	5000
?	5000
?	1000
?	2000
?	700
?	2000
?	-3800
?	5000
?	3000
?	300
?	500
?	2000
?	-200
?	1500
?	6000
?	5200
?	6500
?	5500
?	3800
?	13000
?	10000
?	5000
?	-46300
?	10000
?	9800
?	2000
?	3000
?	1000
?	500
?	5200
?	2200
?	3000
?	3200
?	5200
?	4400
?	4000
?	4500
?	18000
3/16/2021	9700
3/17/2021	8200
3/18/2021	10400
3/19/2021	2000
3/21/2021	1165
3/21/2024	10950
3/22/2021	4030
3/23/2021	6000
3/24/2021	3300
3/26/2021	5025
3/27/2021	2525
3/28/2021	100
3/29/2021	2000
4/1/2021	0
4/1/2021	8210
4/2/2021	2300
4/3/2021	4270
4/8/2021	15000
4/9/2021	5700
4/10/2021	10900
4/11/2021	4425
4/13/2021	-10000
4/21/2021	16000
4/21/2021	3900
4/21/2021	3300
4/21/2021	2000
4/21/2021	2000
4/21/2021	2200
4/21/2021	4800
4/22/2021	6915
4/22/2021	16500
4/23/2021	5800
4/25/2021	21000
4/25/2021	3000
4/26/2021	11000
4/27/2021	1500
4/29/2021	2000
5/2/2021	2000
5/2/2021	4700
5/4/2021	4100
5/4/2021	5100
5/5/2021	1000
5/6/2021	4500
5/8/2021	-68000
5/10/2021	0
5/12/2021	25000
5/13/2021	6025
5/14/2021	0
5/15/2021	3000
5/16/2021	10500
5/17/2021	6700
5/19/2021	13700
5/20/2021	10500
5/21/2021	19000
5/23/2021	0
5/26/2021	5000
5/27/2021	7100
5/29/2021	500
5/29/2021	49000
6/1/2021	5500
6/2/2021	7400
6/4/2021	8000
6/4/2021	51000
6/8/2021	4500
6/8/2021	6125
6/9/2021	8125
6/10/2021	5300
6/12/2021	6000
6/12/2021	16000
6/16/2021	6300
6/16/2021	10400
6/17/2021	20000
6/18/2021	4035
6/20/2021	20400
6/22/2021	8000
6/23/2021	3250
6/25/2021	-115000
6/25/2021	11600
6/27/2024	15000
7/2/2021	7300
7/7/2021	10900
7/10/2021	27000
7/12/2021	0
7/13/2021	24000
7/14/2021	3000
7/15/2021	7525
7/16/2021	14425
7/18/2021	-34000
8/4/2021	6600
8/6/2021	850
8/8/2021	5515
8/10/2021	675
8/13/2021	34000
8/14/2021	1530
8/15/2021	75
8/17/2021	3025
8/18/2021	36600
8/19/2021	15
8/22/2021	-3000
8/22/2021	1575
8/23/2021	11875
8/24/2021	13900
8/25/2021	1750
8/27/2021	5400
8/28/2021	0
9/2/2021	9200
9/3/2021	15
9/5/2021	-7000
9/6/2021	5200
9/8/2021	6500
9/10/2021	-11500
9/12/2021		2100
9/12/2021		3225
9/12/2021		16200
9/16/2021	14100
9/17/2021		56000
9/19/2021	0
9/19/2021	83000
9/21/2021		15315
9/22/2021		5725
9/23/2021		21250
9/25/2021		3125
9/26/2021		-6550
9/27/2021		8275
9/30/2021		4215
10/1/2021		2615
10/1/2021		2625
10/2/2021		1800
10/3/2021		5000
10/3/2021		500
10/4/2021		5400
10/5/2021		750
10/7/2021		-15000
10/12/2021		5000
10/14/2021		500
10/14/2021		5275
10/15/2021		5900
10/16/2021		5400
10/18/2021		51200
10/19/2021		101000
10/25/2021		15500
10/25/2021		20200
10/25/2021		3500
10/26/2021		10300
10/28/2021		10300
10/29/2021		1000
10/31/2021		-29000
11/1/2021		35000
11/4/2021		20475
11/4/2021		11500
11/6/2021		0
11/7/2021		1075
11/8/2021		10500
11/9/2021		-28000
11/10/2021		3600
11/11/2021		900
11/12/2021		400
11/14/2021		15000
11/15/2021		-160
11/16/2021		7300
11/17/2021		12500
11/18/2021		7500
11/19/2021		5500
11/20/2021		-18000
11/22/2021		30000
11/23/2021		20000
11/25/2021		10500
11/27/2021		11800
11/27/2021	5000
11/28/2021	9840
11/29/2021	10000
11/30/2021	17075
12/1/2021	12100
12/3/2021	2200
12/23/2021	10000
12/23/2021	26700
12/25/2021	730
12/26/2021	10725
12/27/2021	21800
12/29/2021	17500
12/31/2021	-12000
1/3/2022	21400
1/3/2022	10000
1/4/2022	19500
1/6/2022		13500
1/7/2022		10200
1/8/2022		10600
1/10/2022		-19000
1/12/2022		-14000
1/14/2022		57000
1/15/2022		21950
1/16/2022		22300
1/18/2022		950
1/20/2022		10600
1/21/2022		1950
1/23/2022		10900
1/24/2022		-20000
1/27/2022	51250
1/28/2022	50385
1/28/2022		1650
1/29/2022	4700
2/6/2022		-5000
2/7/2022	23500
2/7/2022		7250
2/8/2022	-7500
2/11/2022	2075
2/12/2022	22700
2/13/2022		4100
2/15/2022		-400
2/17/2022		22500
2/19/2022		24000
2/20/2022		57200
2/20/2022		21200
2/21/2022		23500
2/22/2022		13200
2/25/2022		11200
2/26/2022		21300
2/26/2022		21600
2/27/2022	-7500
3/1/2022	6525
3/1/2022		11500
3/3/2022	37200
3/4/2022		19300
3/5/2022	2300
3/6/2022	27000
3/6/2022	11300
3/7/2022		15100
3/8/2022		23200
3/25/2022	16100
3/25/2022	33200
3/27/2022	-34000
3/28/2022	106000
3/29/2022	29500
3/29/2022	6600
3/30/2022	57000
3/31/2022	11100
5/7/2022	3525
5/7/2022	6600
5/8/2022	7100
5/10/2022	-23000
5/11/2022	18000
5/12/2022	11500
5/12/2022	63500
5/14/2022	2100
5/19/2022	28000
5/20/2022	24000
5/20/2022	12100
5/21/2022	22500
5/29/2022	18000
5/30/2022		11500
5/31/2022		27500
6/1/2022		11900
6/2/2022		38900
6/4/2022		31500
6/5/2022		10600
6/5/2022		23800
6/6/2022		41900
6/8/2022		64700
6/9/2022		18900
6/10/2022		6900
6/11/2022		43200
6/11/2022	54800
6/12/2022	16800
6/14/2022	-71000
6/15/2022	12000
6/15/2022	8200
6/17/2022	-61000
6/17/2022	54000
6/19/2022	-41000
6/21/2022	43800
6/25/2022	-73000
6/26/2022	43000
6/28/2022	226000
6/28/2022	1100
6/28/2022	-85000
6/29/2022	17500
7/1/2022	57000
7/1/2022	35500
7/3/2022	56800
8/23/2022		3850
8/24/2022		3100
8/25/2022		2800
8/27/2022		2200
8/28/2022		1450
8/28/2022		18200
8/29/2022		8560
8/30/2022		-15200
8/31/2022	5300
8/31/2022	8750
9/18/2022	7600
9/18/2022	-18000
9/18/2022	41000
9/20/2022	14200
9/21/2022	-21000
9/21/2022	11200
9/22/2022	7700
9/23/2022	6300
9/24/2022	-11000
9/24/2022	6200
9/25/2022	7100
9/26/2022	13200
9/27/2022	6500
10/1/2022	11400
10/2/2022	4200
10/3/2022	9300
10/5/2022	110000
10/7/2022	23000
10/9/2022	37000
10/10/2022	2000
10/11/2022	23000
10/14/2022	11000
10/15/2022	20000
10/17/2022	27500
10/19/2022	-61000
10/19/2022	7000
10/24/2022	-35000
10/24/2022	15000
10/27/2022	77000
10/28/2022	23000
10/31/2022	31000
11/1/2022	28000
11/3/2022	26000
11/6/2022	1500
11/7/2022	26000
11/8/2022	62000
11/10/2022	26500
11/13/2022	32000
11/14/2022	52000
11/17/2022	-29000
11/19/2022	500
11/20/2022	-45000
11/22/2022	52000
11/23/2022	-85000
11/26/2022	26000
12/3/2022	19800
12/5/2022	6500
12/6/2022	22000
12/8/2022	13700
12/8/2022	5100
12/10/2022	35000
12/10/2022	36000
12/12/2022	-41000
12/12/2022	36000
12/13/2022	-56000
1/28/2023	6500
1/28/2023	15500
1/28/2023	14800
1/29/2023	-24000
1/30/2023	11000
2/1/2023	10700
2/1/2023	22000
2/3/2023	6800
2/3/2023	-28000
2/3/2023	8200
2/4/2023		36700
2/6/2023		11000
3/25/2023		4200
3/26/2023		-2200
3/27/2023		5600
3/29/2023		11100
3/30/2023		3300
4/2/2023		110
4/3/2023		850
4/6/2023		13800
4/8/2023		2200
4/28/2023		3300
4/30/2023		7200
5/3/2023		-1500
5/5/2023		4100
5/5/2023		1850
5/7/2023		600
5/7/2023		1200
5/9/2023		1550
5/18/2023		7250
5/20/2023		1700
5/20/2023		1800
5/22/2023		1200
6/15/2023		13000
6/16/2023		17100
6/17/2023		51000
6/18/2023		16000
6/18/2023		2100
6/20/2023		2300
6/21/2023		6500
6/22/2023		130
6/24/2023		3500
6/24/2023		6900
6/25/2023		1500
6/27/2023		-18000
6/27/2023	3200
6/29/2023	23000
7/1/2023	26500
7/4/2023	-41000
7/4/2023	1100
7/6/2023	16500
7/7/2023	21000
7/7/2023	-35500
7/10/2023		10200
7/10/2023		14500
7/12/2023		13200
7/14/2023		-14000
7/15/2023	37500
7/16/2023	-25000
9/1/2023		35000
9/1/2023		-11000
9/3/2023		2000
9/4/2023		6500
9/7/2023		4100
9/10/2023		9200
9/11/2023		-300
9/14/2023		3200
9/16/2023		-5000
9/18/2023		18500
9/21/2023		23000
9/23/2023		-1100
9/24/2023		7800
9/25/2023		-2200
9/25/2023	97500
9/29/2023	-30000
10/1/2023		8200
10/3/2023		1100
10/7/2023		600
10/13/2023		8000
10/14/2023	24500
10/17/2023	2500
10/18/2023	11500
10/21/2023		3500
10/21/2023	15500
10/23/2023	1500
10/25/2023	-21000
10/26/2023	26000
10/27/2023	13100
10/29/2023	3000
10/29/2023	1600
10/30/2023	11500
10/31/2023	-31000
11/3/2023	4000
11/5/2023	21000
11/5/2023	6100
11/8/2023	7200
11/9/2023	9100
11/10/2023	11100
11/10/2023	6000
11/12/2023	11000
11/13/2023	21000
11/15/2023	-26000
11/15/2023	20000
11/20/2023	42000
11/22/2023	-32000
11/24/2023		11000
11/25/2023		200
11/26/2023		2300
Total	3010265	1617035

Here are some various statistics, including count of winning and losing days by game and combined.

Statistic	Baccarat	Blackjack	Total
Maximum	226000	101000	226000
Minimum	-115000	-29000	-115000
Wins	293	147	440
Losses	41	22	63
Pct Wins	87.7%	87.0%	87.5%

link to original post

Thanks for the clean table with Baccarat and BJ listed separately. I created a new chart comparing the two histograms. They are strikingly similar.

Nobody else has proposed any specific reason why the session result distributions look so hinky. Whatever explanation anyone cares to propose, it acts the same way for the Baccarat and BJ sessions. For some reason, there are plenty of small wins but small losses are almost nonexistent. It seems pretty clear to me that the left-side tail of the distribution was clipped by selective reporting.

In order for me to use Occam's Razor, I need more than one hypothesis. Until then, the hypothesis that I simulated is the only one currently on the table. Surely some of you MDawg supporters who presented verbiage to say there are other possible explanations could indulge me by showing how that verbiage would translates to numbers and charts. Can you create a model of real-world play that creates histograms that look like the hinky ones below? Until I see some definite counter-proposal, I feel I have my answer.

Quote: SOOPOO

I won $117 on my -EV PaiGow foray today. After the first hour there was a ZERO percent chance I’d walk away a loser. Was up over $200 at that time. If I started losing (I did) I’d stop up some amount between zero and 25. Up. The greatest likelihood is I’d be up more than zero and less than 25. Got lucky on my ‘I gotta leave in a few minutes’ bet. But if you made a histogram of my sessions they wouldn’t be close to any ‘normal’ distribution. I stand by my assessment, that if you don’t believe MDawg hasn’t been winning millions year after year, your histogram charting does not help (nor hurt) your hypothesis.
link to original post

Quote: MDawg

I didn’t analyze or think about deeply whatever M.tal posted anyway. I think SooPoo is on the right track there with discounting the meaning one way or another anything "statistical" M.tal has to say about this particular matter. I guess what SooPoo and I are saying is that there may be a difference between forced hypothesis with a posteriori thinking and real world results.
link to original post

Rather like what Keith Richards said about rock n roll, it should not be analyzed or even thought about deeply. But I am honored that M.Tal is spending night and day thinking about MDawg.


He still hasn't answered this though. As long as he is spending night and day on MDawg, he should find where I said that. Or we may turn it into a Coach's Challenge at risk of suspension right now:

Quote: MDawg

Quote: Mental

MDawg has repeatedly said that losing players pressing their losses causes the house edge to increase.
link to original post

Where did I say that?

Please quote.

I know what I said, and it was not that.

This sort of imprecision draws into question anything you say or claim.
link to original post

Quote: MDawg

As far as Mental’s claim that he inputted every bit of M146’s data as it was posted on a crude HMTL forum like WOV in fifteen minutes, that sounds to me like a certain someone's claim that he had a shuffling machine programmed to cheat in about ten minutes, but I didn’t analyze or think about deeply whatever M.tal posted anyway. I think SooPoo is on the right track there with discounting the meaning one way or another anything "statistical" M.tal has to say about this particular matter. I guess what SooPoo and I are saying is that there may be a difference between forced hypothesis with a posteriori thinking and real world results.
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No, my claim was that I input the data to a spread sheet, calculated the new histograms, took a screenshot of the chart, and inserted that screenshot into a WoV post in 15 minutes.

My claim is that I can copy the "Whole Enchilada" spoiler data from the WoV post to my histogram spreadsheet in 5 seconds. Why would it take anyone longer than that? I consider your comment to be an amazing crude insult of my skills and of the ability of WoV software to allow copying of charts in a form that pastes directly into a spreadsheet table. Try it yourself if you know how to open a spreadsheet and do Control-C Control-V.

If the whole "Whole Enchilada" table was edited for some reason, I could have an updated histogram in less than 15 seconds.

Quote: Mental

For those of us who don't have your abilities.

For those of us who want to understand in simple terms.

The hole enchilada...

Please, in simplified terms, what does all this data show?

Aside from that, can you tell me if there's a big jump in winnings suddenly after MDawg's meeting with Mike for the DarkOz money grab?

Quote: AxelWolf

Aside from that, can you tell me if there's a big jump in winnings suddenly after MDawg's meeting with Mike for the DarkOz money grab?
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When you say something like that it proves that you haven't even read anything much and are just talking without knowing any of the facts.

Of course there was a marked increase over the past five years, as I have posted repeatedly, all of my credit lines and average bets increased dramatically over the past 5 years to where I started playing private tables with special limits at some point.



(1) Wolf, are you going to pick up this Challenge or not? I realize it is longer than a three line post, but perhaps you may bring yourself to read it.

You've said yourself that you rarely read more than 1/3 of what anyone posts and mostly just skim even that 1/3, which is why I am certain that you have no idea what I have been up to or even done these past five years casino wise.

Basically, you talk a lot, but when it comes to putting up, here is yet another Challenge you are so far declining to undertake.



(2) Mental, are you going to respond to this or shall we make it a Coach's Challenge at risk of suspension. I consider it an insult that you think I could have said that, and I do not believe that I did.

Are there any obvious patterns in the data that might show strange oddities of something that seems too contrived?

For example, Whenever there was a losing session there were 10 winning sessions. A losing session was always followed up by a significant winning session by 5 or more times. Oh NVM probably there aren't enough losing session data points 🤔




The data alone can't show this, but imagine if there was nothing but winning sessions until someone made a post about how there was nothing but winning sessions, and then after 2 days there was suddenly a losing session, but no reason to fret, because there was a huge winning session that followed?

I guess it just comes down to you gotta let the Wolf say whatever, just to make the point better than I could that he hasn't followed or read much of anything here. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Quote: AxelWolf

Are there any obvious patterns in the data that might show strange oddities of something that seems too contrived?

For example, Whenever there was a losing session there were 10 winning sessions. A losing session was always followed up by a significant winning session by 5 or more times. Oh NVM probably there aren't enough losing session data points 🤔




The data alone can't show this, but imagine if there was nothing but winning sessions until someone made a post about how there was nothing but winning sessions, and then after 2 days there was suddenly a losing session, but no reason to fret, because there was a huge winning session that followed?
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I didn't study the timeline or sequencing, and I won't comment on something I did not study.

I just examined the statistical properties of the "Whole Enchilada" data set. The histogram for any large data set like this will generally exhibit a symmetrical bell-shaped distribution. We only seem to have the right half of the bell for every data set I looked at.

So far, nobody else as offered any explanation of what happened to the left half of the bell curve. I speculate that it was selectively underreported. The only person who knows the full story isn't addressing the issue.

MDawg is right that I am spending too much time on this. The analysis was quick and easy. The conclusions seem obvious to me, so I don't know quite what else I could write to make it clearer without spending a day writing about probability distributions.

Quote: MDawg

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Nuked Former Member

Now if these pictures are in fact, pertaining to you, which also isn't proven, just implied, it might prove you are a higher limit player with some cash/assets. But I don't think anyone ever disputed that either did they?

🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️🙋🏻‍♂️
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Within this post I outline multiple times when you declined wagers and challenges with me.

Here's another one. I go with the Wizard to the cages of these two casinos and have them verify that these are my markers.



While we are at it, we may verify that the markers were paid (since you don't seem to understand that the only situation in which a customer would be able to have possession of his marker would be after redemption).

Let's just keep it simple. No cash. If it turns out these are not my markers, and I didn't pay them off, I leave WOV for good and never return. If it turns out they are mine, you leave WOV for good and never return. Submit to a complete and utter nuke by Admin.

Now, you going keep talking nonsense, or you going to put up? You know I don't consider you to be any sort of authority on casinos, but here is your chance to prove that your smart mouth opinion is valid.

24 Hours I leave this challenge up. Let me know A.Wolf.
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I won't even consider any of your challenges, I'm not even going to read this challenge. I would probably find holes all over it.

UNTIL YOU'RE WILLING TO PUT UP AT LEAST 10k IN ESCROW WHILE WE DISCUSS A CHALLENGE, DON'T BOTHER ASKING ME TO ENTERTAIN ONE.

I have done so before, (had money held in escrow) but you backed out. I have offered to do so on more than one occasion, however you haven't agreed to do so.

I'm not wasting my time discussing a challenge with someone who hasn't convinced me they have any of their own money.

You might have 100's of Millions IDK, but you haven't any history whatsoever, at least none that I'm aware of that convinces me you will pay a debt if owed. Can you name 5 known people on the forum who would be willing to give you 10k for a few weeks to hold?

If you would read the Challenge past the third line...you'd see that I'm not proposing any money.

Anyway, I'd suggest that you read past at least the first line of something else that was just posted in this forum or else you're going to get at a minimum suspended.

Quote: MDawg

Let's just keep it simple. No cash. If it turns out these are not my markers, and I didn't pay them off, I leave WOV for good and never return. If it turns out they are mine, you leave WOV for good and never return. Submit to a complete and utter nuke by Admin.

Over all though, my point is made that you don't read much of what is posted and therefore have no real standing to comment, certainly not comment intelligently.


Meantime, M.tal hasn't responded to my Challenge either is just going on and on about something that seems to matter to him.

Quote: MDawg

If you would read the Challenge past the third line...you'd see that I'm not proposing any money.

Anyway, I'd suggest that you read past at least the first line of something else that was just posted in this forum or else you're going to get at a minimum suspended.

Quote: MDawg

Let's just keep it simple. No cash. If it turns out these are not my markers, and I didn't pay them off, I leave WOV for good and never return. If it turns out they are mine, you leave WOV for good and never return. Submit to a complete and utter nuke by Admin.

Over all though, my point is made that you don't read much of what is posted and therefore have no real standing to comment, certainly not comment intelligently.


Meantime, M.tal hasn't responded to my Challenge either is just going on and on about something that seems to matter to him.
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You're wasting your time putting up any challenges with me until I hear the words... I'll put up 10k in escrow while discussing the terms.

Such an easy task for a supposed multimillionaire.

Did you say something about your "eye has been messed up" because you're obviously not reading a word.

Quote: MDawg

Did you say something about your "eye has been messed up" because you're obviously not reading a word.
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Show evidence that I'm obviously not reading a word.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: MDawg

Did you say something about your "eye has been messed up" because you're obviously not reading a word.
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Show evidence that I'm obviously not reading a word.
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Is that a Coach's Challenge where after I show it you get suspended?

For two days now I have posted this Challenge where the stake is getting nuked from WOV, and you keep going on and on about putting 10K into escrow.

Even after I clarified that there was no money involved you came back again with "I'll put up 10k in escrow while discussing the terms."

Obviously you are not reading it, if you were you'd realize there is no need for anyone to put 10K anywhere.



Beyond that, you even said you're not reading it.  

Quote: AxelWolf

I'm not even going to read this challenge.
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Quote: MDawg

But in any case, yes results are missing. Will I ever get around to figuring out what exactly those are and adding them to this project? Maybe.

Am missing something here?!? Don’t you already have an EXACT accounting of your gambling winnings each year on your tax return? If you wanted to, couldn’t you within say 5 minutes find the info for the years in question? You ABSOLUTELY WOULD NOT need to go back over trip reports! This is plain silly. No one really cares about any individual trip result. It’s the sum of the winnings, which is recapped on ONE LINE on your tax return each year. Since you seem not to care that the info is out there in the public domain, why not save Mission from doing the math?

Example…. I made $600k in 2019, $555k in 2020, $876k in 2021, etc….

I’m not asking you to SHOW anyone the returns. Since you must know the numbers quite easily, why leave it to Mission to parse through occasionally vague/ambiguous trip reports?

Without getting into detail, it's not that simple in my situation.

Quote: MDawg

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: MDawg

Did you say something about your "eye has been messed up" because you're obviously not reading a word.
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Show evidence that I'm obviously not reading a word.
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Is that a Coach's Challenge where after I show it you get suspended?
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If you can also get suspended for not proving it.

I will agree as long as you can 100% prove exactly what you wrote. I don't accept Wizard judging the matter as I saw him make a horrible judgment call regarding DarkOz. Who judges? I suggest a random draw of 3 of the top 20 posters excluding myself and you.

I already proved it above. Scroll up and read.

Quote: MDawg

Without getting into detail, it's not that simple in my situation.
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This doesn't bode well imo for someone who has vociferously argued the IRS won't accept only gambling as an income.

I have done so for years without any noise from the IRS and could go back through my tax returns for exact amounts reported.

This also does not bode well for the person who has vociferously argued that its nearly impossible to fool the pit boss through ratholing due to their accuracy in chip counts. This argument also extends to people who have argued that there ARE methods to falsify winnings and losses and accuracy such as most claims can be taken with a grain of salt.

How does all these documents you keep posting as sacred evidence of your winnings amount to tax returns amounts of gambling winnings not being easily reported as accurate?

You say you can't tell us but that only bolsters what challengers here have stated for years. That some reporting shenanigans are both possible and likely here.

I don't think you're understanding at all what I just posted re: why it's not that simple. But it's not like I wish to get into debating the nuances of my tax reporting online publicly. Closed if you want a better explanation, PM me.

Quote: MDawg

I already proved it above. Scroll up and read.
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Do you agree or not?

It's already done. You did not read the Challenge, you kept going on and on about posting 10K in escrow and you even admitted that you did not read it. Obviously you didn't read it the marker challenge had nothing to do with a monetary bet.

Now, if you do want to take up the challenge that I posted about my markers, do it. Otherwise, go back to nursing your eye it's late you wouldn't want to overextend yourself.

Beyond that, I won't waste time with you.

Still time left to accept:

The MDawg Marker Challenge

Quote: MDawg

(2) Mental, are you going to respond to this or shall we make it a Coach's Challenge at risk of suspension. I consider it an insult that you think I could have said that, and I do not believe that I did.


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You're evidently not the type who wants to admit he was wrong, which further in my mind taints anything you have posted...about anything.

I never said that "losing players pressing their losses causes the house edge to increase."

What I said was that something independent, risk of ruin, comes into play such that in some circumstances the player has a good chance, an ever increasing chance in some circumstances such as if he keeps chasing an increasing sum with a flat or decreasing bankroll with an all or nothing goal, of not remaining standing long enough to even experience the exact house edge. That is real world - not over the course of an infinite number of hands. Real world players don't have an infinite bankroll or infinite time to play.

All you have to do is hang out in the ultra high limit salons long enough to observe that this is how the house cleans out people in a very short period of time, time and again. The player has y bankroll. Gets wiped out. Now he tries to win y with the same y bankroll, all or nothing. Wiped out again. Now he tries to win 2y with the same y bankroll. Wiped out again. Now tries to win 3y with the same or even in many cases, a much lower than y bankroll, all or nothing goal. Wiped out again. Comes back on a new trip, y bankroll only, gets up some, wants everything back the whole 4y, gets wiped out again. Now wants 5y, all or nothing and has a y or even lower bankroll. And so on. I see this sort of thing all the time.

In simpler terms, and again you see this all the time, someone dumps $100K and then somehow gets his hands on $10K more, comes to the tables, determined to win that entire $100K back. Almost every time, that $10K disappears versus recovering the $100K. Finds $20K, comes back determined to win the whole $110K, loses it all. Now wants $130K all or nothing, playing with $20K again. Loses it all again. Seems like - why would anyone have such an "all or nothing" goal with a decreasing bankroll and increasing goal, but that's just the gambler's mentality. Once they get in the hole they chase they want it all - or nothing. And that all or nothing chasing can last for months sometimes, until the player has lost everything he can get his hands on, in a relatively short period of time.

I've also seen it where people dump one or two million, and then keep chasing it across multiple trips with just $80K or so, each time thinking they'll win their millions back. Next thing you know they've dumped another million - just $80K at a time. Fast too. And in those situations the risk of ruin is even worse, because when they dumped the millions at once they might have had special limits in play allowing larger bets, but when they come back with just $80K, they are a regular player with stated house limits.

Yes I agree that given enough time that player will actually take that paltry sum and win all his money back (minus the house edge), but in real world terms, that just doesn't happen often enough to matter for the chasing high roller player who just gets wiped out such that he can't even afford to play any longer.

I think the problem is that a lot of people don't realize that the average life of the high roller is two years. Most get busted out in that time and never recover. Part of the intrinsic proof that I'm winning is that either I'm so seriously made of money that I can afford an over two billion dollar handle x house edge loss, or...I really do have an edge.

Quote: Mental

I would never undertake a challenge to prove that some anonymous person gambled somewhere in the world on some unspecified date, lost money in that session, and then neglected to report that result. The idea is absurd on the face of it.
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𝘽𝙄𝙉𝙂𝙊_______!!!

.

.
and it's quite curious don't you think_________?

that the winning % for BJ and Bacc were almost exactly the same_________

Bacc ____87.7%______and BJ_________87%

quite a coincidence

food for thought

.

Quote: MDawg

My goal when I started up playing again was to win 100% of the time. Unfortunately it didn't work out that way.
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I'm gonna have to defer to Mental's charts here, but MDawgs chips seem to be incontrovertible evidence.

Quote: ChumpChange

I'm gonna have to defer to Mental's charts here, but MDawgs chips seem to be incontrovertible evidence.
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Evidence of what?!? If you made it worth my while I can assure you I could be pictured with chips of a high denomination. Or those bricks of hundreds.

I believe that MDawg had them through real gambling exploits, but they are not proof in any real sense.

The totality of all of the evidence supports that I have been doing exactly what I have claimed.

Keep in mind also,

Quote: MDawg

I think the problem is that a lot of people don't realize that the average life of the high roller is two years. Most get busted out in that time and never recover. Part of the intrinsic proof that I'm winning is that either I'm so seriously made of money that I can afford an over two billion dollar handle x house edge loss, or...I really do have an edge.
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such that I'd be expected to be down about...mmm...-$30,000,000. or so if I didn't play with an edge.


BTW SooPoo most of the chips anyone could come up with (provided he bought the chips, that is), but to get your hands on $100,000. chips you practically have to be playing with half million or higher credit lines because casinos that even have those $100K denomination chips generally don't even place them in the racks on public tables, only private.



They actually don't really come into play on less than million dollar lines, which in that stratosphere is where a player might have a special limit allowing him to bet one of those babies in a single hand. After all, what do you want to do, hold it? Or bet it, is the casino's attitude on something like that.

I have always tried to remain vague on what my lines are because jerk offs who try to track me down could use that to narrow the field of suspects.

It is after all, just a chip. But it's just a chip in the same way that a Rolex is just a watch.

Quote: MDawg

The totality of all of the evidence supports that I have been doing exactly what I have claimed.

Keep in mind also,

Quote: MDawg

I think the problem is that a lot of people don't realize that the average life of the high roller is two years. Most get busted out in that time and never recover. Part of the intrinsic proof that I'm winning is that either I'm so seriously made of money that I can afford an over two billion dollar handle x house edge loss, or...I really do have an edge.
link to original post

such that I'd be expected to be down about...mmm...-$30,000,000. or so if I didn't play with an edge.


BTW SooPoo most of the chips anyone could come up with (provided he bought the chips, that is), but to get your hands on $100,000. chips you practically have to be playing with half million or higher credit lines because casinos that even have those $100K denomination chips generally don't even place them in the racks on public tables, only private.



They actually don't really come into play on less than million dollar lines, which in that stratosphere is where a player might have a special limit allowing him to bet one of those babies in a single hand. After all, what do you want to do, hold it? Or bet it, is the casino's attitude on something like that.

I have always tried to remain vague on what my lines are because jerk offs who try to track me down could use that to narrow the field of suspects.

It is after all, just a chip. But it's just a chip in the same way that a Rolex is just a watch.


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Ultimately I believe MDawg does at least do the high limits gambling and most likely with some edge.

What is sad is that he has openly stated he doesn't believe how successful I am... yet when it comes to who easily parted with 2 grand it was DarkOz, not MDawg.

I find it curious someone who gambles millions is so excited about a measly Two grand.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: MDawg

The totality of all of the evidence supports that I have been doing exactly what I have claimed.

Keep in mind also,

Quote: MDawg

I think the problem is that a lot of people don't realize that the average life of the high roller is two years. Most get busted out in that time and never recover. Part of the intrinsic proof that I'm winning is that either I'm so seriously made of money that I can afford an over two billion dollar handle x house edge loss, or...I really do have an edge.
link to original post

such that I'd be expected to be down about...mmm...-$30,000,000. or so if I didn't play with an edge.


BTW SooPoo most of the chips anyone could come up with (provided he bought the chips, that is), but to get your hands on $100,000. chips you practically have to be playing with half million or higher credit lines because casinos that even have those $100K denomination chips generally don't even place them in the racks on public tables, only private.



They actually don't really come into play on less than million dollar lines, which in that stratosphere is where a player might have a special limit allowing him to bet one of those babies in a single hand. After all, what do you want to do, hold it? Or bet it, is the casino's attitude on something like that.

I have always tried to remain vague on what my lines are because jerk offs who try to track me down could use that to narrow the field of suspects.

It is after all, just a chip. But it's just a chip in the same way that a Rolex is just a watch.


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Ultimately I believe MDawg does at least do the high limits gambling and most likely with some edge.

What is sad is that he has openly stated he doesn't believe how successful I am... yet when it comes to who easily parted with 2 grand it was DarkOz, not MDawg.

I find it curious someone who gambles millions is so excited about a measly Two grand.
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The $2,000 you are referring to is the time your Daughter's Fiancee robbed you, right? And then went to the Casino and did a selfie with the money he stole from you, right? That was incredibly messed up for him to go to you. 🥶

Quote: Nathan

Quote: darkoz

Quote: MDawg

The totality of all of the evidence supports that I have been doing exactly what I have claimed.

Keep in mind also,

Quote: MDawg

I think the problem is that a lot of people don't realize that the average life of the high roller is two years. Most get busted out in that time and never recover. Part of the intrinsic proof that I'm winning is that either I'm so seriously made of money that I can afford an over two billion dollar handle x house edge loss, or...I really do have an edge.
link to original post

such that I'd be expected to be down about...mmm...-$30,000,000. or so if I didn't play with an edge.


BTW SooPoo most of the chips anyone could come up with (provided he bought the chips, that is), but to get your hands on $100,000. chips you practically have to be playing with half million or higher credit lines because casinos that even have those $100K denomination chips generally don't even place them in the racks on public tables, only private.



They actually don't really come into play on less than million dollar lines, which in that stratosphere is where a player might have a special limit allowing him to bet one of those babies in a single hand. After all, what do you want to do, hold it? Or bet it, is the casino's attitude on something like that.

I have always tried to remain vague on what my lines are because jerk offs who try to track me down could use that to narrow the field of suspects.

It is after all, just a chip. But it's just a chip in the same way that a Rolex is just a watch.


link to original post

Ultimately I believe MDawg does at least do the high limits gambling and most likely with some edge.

What is sad is that he has openly stated he doesn't believe how successful I am... yet when it comes to who easily parted with 2 grand it was DarkOz, not MDawg.

I find it curious someone who gambles millions is so excited about a measly Two grand.
link to original post

The $2,000 you are referring to is the time your Daughter's Fiancee robbed you, right? And then went to the Casino and did a selfie with the money he stole from you, right? That was incredibly messed up for him to go to you. 🥶
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NO!

Where did you get the impression that I was excited over $2000.?

I've brought it up in the context of I'm among the few on this forum who have been paid as a result of being on it, in other words that DarkOz takes me very seriously, seriously enough to pay me.

Let's have some fun with math, shall we. The whole class can follow along.

Just cut and paste the 'Whole Enchilada" table into a spreadsheet twice. In one copied version, sort by the session values for BJ and sort the other copy by session value for baccarat. Then calculate the variance for the session results for both games. Also count the number of sessions. This should take a few minutes and give you results like this:

Note how small the variances values are. For reference, if a player had a session of exactly one BJ hand where they bet one $100,000 chip, the variance would be about 1.3*(100000^2) = 13,000,000,000. (All my variances are in units of $^2). Clearly, the variance values indicate that the player seldom, if ever, bet a $100,000 hand in this approximately four year period. The session variance is too small by a factor of 20 for there to be even one hand at $100,000 in each session. Holding and photographing big chips is not the same as betting big chips.

I know that card counters can make the house edge disappear, but none of them claim to reduce the variance to any degree. In fact, spreading bets increases variance compared to flat betting. The variance numbers just are not consistent with some of the bet sizes being thrown around. They are also not consistent with estimates of handle. I wonder what the total handle was during the period covered by Mission's report. If someone knows they did more than two billion dollars of handle in their gambling career, they could probably tell us how much handle they had during a recent period.

I am not that impressed with the total variance per year implied by Mission's report. Let us be generous and allow that in one of the heavier years, there were 50 BJ session and 100 baccarat sessions. The total variance for the year would be 13260571614+72655836458 = 85,916,408,073. This is only a little bit more variance than I exposed myself to last year. You think someone who wins 80% of their sessions would be more willing to put money at risk than I am.

If I knew what a typical session looked like, I could derive a mathematical relationship between variance and handle. I know that if a player played 1000 hands of BJ per session at a bet of $500, then they would have an session variance of 325,000. This is well above the observed variance for the BJ sessions. Thus, the typical BJ session must not take on this much risk. This would imply less than a half million dollars put at risk per session. Assuming liberal strip rules, the player would lose much less than $2,500 per BJ session playing basic strategy. If the player was spreading their bets, they would need to start with a much smaller bet unit in order to have such a modest session variance. Thus, the handle would be even less. (I suppose if the player played more than one hand at a time, then maybe they could lose a bit more per session and still stay within the observed BJ session variance.)

Please feel free to postulate what a session could look like where the player gets more handle than my example. How many rounds in a session, what bet levels, spreading bets and/or multiple hands, etc. What would the player lose per session in your hypothetical session? In my example, the player would not lose $30,000,000 in 12,000 BJ sessions. That would take 80 years at 150 BJ sessions per year.

Quote:

such that I'd be expected to be down about...mmm...-$30,000,000. or so if I didn't play with an edge.

I grant that the baccarat session variance is higher than for BJ and the house edge is higher. I still do not think the math works out for losing $300,000 a year playing basic strategy at these levels of play and spreading bets. There are a lot of people in the world who can and do lose this much per year. Not only that, but the standard deviation would be comparable to the expected loss, so a basic strategy player would have a decent chance of winning in any given year just by luck with this sort of play.

I welcome anyone to show a scenario where the math is consistent with the numbers with which we are confronted. Either the variance numbers are wrong because most of the losing sessions have been mysteriously disappeared, or the handle number was pulled out of thin air, or both.

If someone wants to convince me of something, then the math should make sense and be consistent with the story that is being told.

It just shows where this guy's mind goes...straight to something complicated and irrelevant. Which is even more reason in my mind to discount anything he has to say.

But he shore does like to spend a lot of time tryin to figure out MDawg! (And then later try to claim that, no I didn't really spend that much time.)

Just multiple the house edge if playing with no advantage of say 1.06% to 1.24% on Baccarat times a two billion or so handle and you have -$30,000,000. or so.

The reason I said "or so" is because my lifetime Baccarat handle could have been 2.5 billion maybe more. It was a billion before I even started playing in 2018, based on what I played before my decade or so hiatus, and my play since then has been monstrously larger.

In other posts I have calculated my handle in just one session, and this was even before I started playing special limits with higher credit lines, to be in the multi millions. I have had hosts verify my handle too for individual sessions just for kicks.

Really, when you consider how high my average bet is or at least became especially the past 2 - 3 years I really didn't even win much these past five years.

I am interested in the math, not the unsubstantiated claims. I was hoping for a response that would explain how you do so much handle with so little variance as evidenced by your adventures thread. Instead, I get the usual response that what I find interesting is 'complicated and irrelevant'. It is not my fault that your tale is mathematically inconsistent.

Quote: Mental

I am interested in the math, not the unsubstantiated claims. I was hoping for a response that would explain how you do so much handle with so little variance as evidenced by your adventures thread. Instead, I get the usual response that what I find interesting is 'complicated and irrelevant'. It is not my fault that your tale is mathematically inconsistent.
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Welcome back Mental BTW

Even if I played 50,000 hands of BJ at $1,000/hand, that's only a $50 million handle, with an HA of $250K.
My regular individual sessions can be losses of 5% to 25%. It's the more infrequent winning sessions where I win 1% to 20% that turn the profit.

MDawg had a thing called a "case bet" where he would bet big and hope for a win to turn a losing session around. Like if you're down half your session money, you bet the rest of your session money on a hunch that you'll win, kind of like EvenBob, and then you'll double up back to even and you can start your session all over again or cash out at even or just above even.

Quote: ChumpChange

Even if I played 50,000 hands of BJ at $1,000/hand, that's only a $50 million handle, with an HA of $250K.
My regular individual sessions can be losses of 5% to 25%. It's the more infrequent winning sessions where I win 1% to 20% that turn the profit.

MDawg had a thing called a "case bet" where he would bet big and hope for a win to turn a losing session around. Like if you're down half your session money, you bet the rest of your session money on a hunch that you'll win, kind of like EvenBob, and then you'll double up back to even and you can start your session all over again or cash out at even or just above even.
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I am not saying he never makes large bets. It is just that his reported sessions have fairly low variance and that this is inconsistent with making large frequent bets.

If you tell me what your typical session looks like in terms of the type of game, hands played, and the bet spread, then I can tell you what your variance will be. It's not complicated at all despite what someone might say.

If he's playing $2,000 a hand and running a progression (he presses into winning streaks) such that he's betting $20K by the time he gets to winning the 8th hand in a row, how long does he have to wait around for even a 6 in a row winning streak and how far behind or ahead will he be once it arrives? If he plays only 200 to 400 hands, it may only arrive once and he can call it a win if it arrives on time.

Quote: ChumpChange

If he's playing $2,000 a hand and running a progression (he presses into winning streaks) such that he's betting $20K by the time he gets to winning the 8th hand in a row, how long does he have to wait around for even a 6 in a row winning streak and how far behind or ahead will he be once it arrives? If he plays only 200 to 400 hands, it may only arrive once and he can call it a win if it arrives on time.
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Are you suggesting that by using a betting system, a bettor can make most of his sessions come out as wins and also ramp up the bet size without blowing out the variance? I want to see your math.