AP Claim Credibility

Quote: AlanMendelson

That's a ridiculous statement to say that if you play Ultimate X abandoned multipliers you'll win. You have no control over the RNG. You can play abandoned multipliers for the next 100 years and there is no guarantee you will win -- and every play without a winner is money out of your AP bankroll.

Stop the nonsense. Quit while you're ahead.

Quit by saying playing abandoned multipliers is a smarter play. That makes sense.

Have you ever vultured an Ultimate X Alan?

If you play them at Full Hands x 5, even on the worst game possible (10 play Deuces with a single 2x) your value is higher than the highest possible count most have ever seen in Blackjack while card counting.

The best possible hand, 12x's on 10 play probably couldn't have a real world expectation applied to it, for how ridiculously advantageous that one hand will be.

And it isn't nonsense, Alan, I swear on all things holy that if you were to start, today, and do nothing but VUX, you will absolutely have made profit, and continue to make it.

When your house edge is 5%-nearly 500% Alan, that means that every wager you make is expected to return back more than you wagered, and while I do know its entirely possible to lose for a day, primarily because you'd most likely lose a chunk on something like 10 play half dollars, while only really getting shots at nickels all day, the end result will always be the same, +EV over time, generates a real, tangible return, and considering EVERY play is +EV, you'd be silly to even suggest the idea that one could realistically lose over the long term, hell, the short term is generally unrealistic.

I once spent about three hours with an "AP" walking around casinos on the Strip watching him vulture UX machines. Sure, he found a few plays. He did not win money.

Even if you do win money, how much can you possibly win? Would you earn $200,000 a year? $100,000 a year? $60,000 a year?

A couple of weeks ago I got lucky and with only $1,000 in a $25/coin machine I hit quad queens for $3125, and then quad 2s for $5,000 and then on $5 video poker a straight flush for $1250, and then returning to $25 video poker a $100,000 royal playing 8/5 Bonus (full pay) video poker. Does that make me an AP? I'll answer my question: no it doesn't.

But my dumb luck beats my friends who tell me they are APs.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I once spent about three hours with an "AP" walking around casinos on the Strip watching him vulture UX machines. Sure, he found a few plays. He did not win money.

Even if you do win money, how much can you possibly win? Would you earn $200,000 a year? $100,000 a year? $60,000 a year?

A couple of weeks ago I got lucky and with only $1,000 in a $25/coin machine I hit quad queens for $3125, and then quad 2s for $5,000 and then on $5 video poker a straight flush for $1250, and then returning to $25 video poker a $100,000 royal playing 8/5 Bonus (full pay) video poker. Does that make me an AP? I'll answer my question: no it doesn't.

But my dumb luck beats my friends who tell me they are APs.

You're basing one lucky streak, vs. 3 hour trip with your "AP friend" vulturing machines, as an absolute?

VUXing will not return more than 60k/yr without you being the only person in a great location with a plethora of high denom machines, no. Now, if vegas were completely devoid of all hustlers, vultures, and VUXers, I'd easily make over $200,000 in vegas without the competition, and that's probably a large, large understatement, and I'd likely have to incorporate and hire more employees to handle the workload.

Let me attest to you personally Alan, I am, for the rest of my life, ahead on VUXing, and have made great money on it, large sums of money, Alan. Unless you get stuck in some weird "MathExtremist infinite loss theory", you'll always win in the end, but you won't always win in the short term. There are rare days that you won't make any or much money VUXing, there are days that you make THOUSANDS of dollars and wager less than $200 combined all day.

I think I've actually figured out your problem, Alan, you keep looking at things from the short term, short perspective angle, and that's just unwise.

Quote: Exoter175

6: The full time CC: This guy is exceptionally rare. Full time card counters are few and far between, and often only "hit" certain locations at certain times, for a small period or window, and often rotate a large amount of casinos into their routines as they know that they need to fly under the radar as much as possible to continue. They are by all accounts, the best AP's in the business considering the risks they have to manage daily compared to others. -------These guys make up the smallest pool of APBJ's----------
.

Dude why didn't you just say KewlJ?

Quote: AxelWolf

Dude why didn't you just say KewlJ?

Because he's not the "only" one, he's just the main one. I feel like it would hurt Ning's feelings if I called him a "KJ", rather than a full time card counter lol.

Exoter all I had to see was one three hour session "vulturing" UX to know there is no guarantee of any profits.

Can't make more than $60,000 a year unless you have the entire playground to yourself? Then why bother. Managers at McDonalds and In N Out get paid more.

I have part time sales people who earn more than that.

I have a cameraman who works eight days a month who gets $60,000 a year. And he has benefits, too. With no fluctuation in earnings.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Exoter all I had to see was one three hour session "vulturing" UX to know there is no guarantee of any profits.

Can't make more than $60,000 a year unless you have the entire playground to yourself? Then why bother. Managers at McDonalds and In N Out get paid more.

I have part time sales people who earn more than that.

I have a cameraman who works eight days a month who gets $60,000 a year. And he has benefits, too. With no fluctuation in earnings.

Alan, please stop being so short sighted and closed-minded. Nothing in this "business" can potentially offer a better advantage than VUXing, period, end of story. Quit looking at a 3 hour session like its some absolute example of what VUXing is. For all you know, your friend wasn't holding the proper cards, betting the proper amount and number of hands to even be profitable from. Beyond that, in those 3 hours, how many hands would you guess he played?

Why would someone choose to not make more than 60k per year with VUXing? Because he's got no boss, makes his own schedule, and oh there's one more thing..........................VUXING IS NOT THE ONLY ADVANTAGE PLAY IN A CASINO ALAN. If your friend is an "AP" and all he showed you was UX, he's no AP.

Christ, you should re-direct your craps-di interest into actual machine-ap interest, where the real money is, and I'd probably shock you with what really happens.

Quote: Exoter175

7: Player X: Player X has no name because he doesn't generally exist. The true Unicorn of the AP world. This guy has every advantage play in the book memorized. He's part card counter, part comp hustler, part vulture, part VUXer, part Machine AP. Since player X generally doesn't exist, its hard to "spot" a player X. Have you ever been in the casino and cashed out of a machine just for someone to walk right up after you and hit a big win and then cash out and leave? That's generally the feeling you'll get around player x. You won't know he's there, because he doesn't want you to know he's there, but he's generally the first one to every major advantage play. In many cases, he's the only one who knows about the advantage play being there in the first place. Player X is what many would consider, if they met one, a true "full time AP" with every trick in the book in his bag. When he can't VUX, he's counting, when he's not counting, he's vulturing a bonus machine, when he's not doing that, he might be milking multiplier comps on a full pay VP machine, and when he's not doing that, he might be right over your shoulder or in your blind spot waiting to take your machine the second you get off. ------------Player X's are so incredibly rare, there might be fewer than a dozen in the entire country, I have met very, very few of them, but they do exist. These guys are so "ahead" of the game, that they generally know about an advantage play or machine, long before anyone else ever catches on. A new machine might come out tomorrow, and they'll have 5-6 months of advantage play on it before a "Machine Hustler" or "Comp Hustler" every figures it out.

See this is all a slight red flag to me because I must know all 6 of the guys well including 10 more.

Honestly I don't think you're as experienced , knowledgeable about real AP as you're leading us to believe, including the amount of money you're claiming/insinuating.

I don't hate you, I'm glad you're passionate about AP, but honestly I think you're making APs look bad with the excessive bragging and egotistical personality. I'm kinda almost embarrassed to be an AP as I can only imagine what some others are thinking the more you say .( Dam you Wizard for +1 ing Ex's already big ego).
I know a few other less outspoken AP's that feel the same way(yes you know you've got our attention when people are privately talking about you, unfortunately most of it's negative)

KJ mentioned that you seemed like a newb not to long ago. I'm Almost offended that you used his good name making seem as if he could and would vouch for you. That's a serious issue in the AP world.

Player X as you call it Spends almost no time counting because it's a wast of time compared to other stuff, not to mention the risk of being tagged as a counter. Player x only vultures UX on rare occasions usually just because he finds it fun and can't resist a +EV situation. I guarantee he doesn't spend hardly anytime playing scavenger plays. There's nothing wrong with Bonus machine sniping or comp hustling because I've done everything from this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgEApN9ap0A and playing just about every normal game you can find in a casino including VP, keno (video and live), sports, bingo, lotto, roulette, online, horses, craps, war, big 6, etc. to being on an all day play while we're betting $1250.00 a pull on a slot machine. All with significant +EV upwards of up to 400%.

You're assessment of what you call comp hustlers is way off and your obviously miss informed what playing for mail/comps etc is worth from the 9/5 ers. I'm also thinking KJs partner is what you conciser a comp/mail hustler 9 to 5 er. And no they don't break about even daily, they also have big swings compared to the levels they play.

NO ONE knows everything in AP and no one is on all the good plays early(not even close). If this were true Why have I been on good plays (some long term) and yet no other pro's know about it, and visa versa?


You mentioned someone earning 1k a month in FP was low and went on bragging you made 3x that . Frankly There's at least 6 guys on here laughing at your 3k a month because they probably get 2x that amount at just 1 casino.

You have made many long posts in a short period of time however I fail to see how they actually contributed anything fresh or meaningfully especially with what all your claiming.

I'm not saying all of this to be mean spirited or a jerk (I understand it's doesn't feel that way when its directed at you) Honestly I'm trying to help you. I have seen this before and it never ends well.

Yes you're helping create more posts and views on the forum but so did B79, and whats his name?Spaghett? verbetti? clamidia? hell I don't remember (Mr. my cat rolls around in my money made from both side baccarat betting)

Strive to be player X and learn less is sometimes more.

Exoter, you asked if my claim I was making $8,000 a day was an average or was I making 8K for a short period of time while making less money other times of the year.

The answer is the latter. I did not make an average of $8,000 a day for a year. I could make that and hope to soon but that instance was a situation that came at a bad time where the casino for reasons other than me got really sweaty. They were being hit by well over a thousand hustlers. The wave of bannings from the casino was such that security was taking in ten people or more a day.

Now, you bring up a good point. This whole reduction of hourly wages per year or daily wages per day annually. I come from the film world so my training is not to do that. In film, we just state what we were paid on a daily basis without all this break down.

For example, take a typical stage actor. He works for three months on Broadway at $1,000 and hour. Then, after that gig, he's on off-off Broadway working $100 and hour and finally, for a quick month he might do a student film for $50 a day. What does he tell people when asked about his income?

"Well, I was clearing about $1,000 bucks an hour for awhile but now I'm in between roles, so I'm slumming a bit."

What he doesn't do is say: "Well, I added up all the money I made this year and divided it by hours so I made $12.65 and hour as an actor this year."

As most AP's know, there are ups and downs in this business but as you state, we are our own boss. No one can fire us. We just keep on trekking. As opposed to just about any job that pays steady with a boss where you can be canned instantly with nothing left but to find another position somewhere else.

Very well said axel/ not even a single word needed for a follow up

Quote: darkoz

"Well, I was clearing about $1,000 bucks an hour for awhile but now I'm in between roles, so I'm slumming a bit."

What he doesn't do is say: "Well, I added up all the money I made this year and divided it by hours so I made $12.65 and hour as an actor this year."

Yes, most people quote an average. The higher the average, the better the person is. And it isn't puffery - there's easy math that backs up the claim. The max matters much less. I've had several days where I've made more than $10k at the casino. I'm certainly not going to run around shouting about how I make $13,000/day when I break even at best most of the time.

Threads like this are when I miss mickey. He would have been suspended at leat 3 times from this thread alone.

Quote: mamat

Drop you in Vegas for a month with $100 and no car.
You must have a hotel/hostel room to sleep in every night.
End of the month have $500 in your pocket.

I did that. For more than a month and for more than $500. (But I started with more).

Would be pretty tough with just $100. With $1,000 I think you could definitely do it.

Quote: rdw4potus

I've had several days where I've made more than $10k at the casino.

You've had a $10k day at the casino? It certainly wasn't playing craps with me. :)

Quote: Exoter175

VUXing will not return more than 60k/yr without you being the only person in a great location with a plethora of high denom machines, no.

The best VUX'ing locations I currently know in the US are in the 40k-60k range (for 8 hr days).
It is not necessary to be the only person.

VUX'ing has been called the "grind".

Advantage is 145-150%, but there are a very limited number of plays.
Each 2X on a nickel machine is worth $0.25, quarters worth $1.25, etc...

It's like a "treasure hunt" picking up quarters and dollars,
with a lottery-like chance of getting a dealt royal.

Very profitable in the long run, but not very exciting in the short run.
Even in a good situation (100-200 plays/day), you only get $100+ about once/week.

Each UX machine usually has people leaving $3-$9/day on weekdays, higher on weekends.
The rate will depend on the percentages of
(a) clueless players (who leave pages of 10X 11X 12X)
(b) players who don't leave any multipliers (sometimes because they hate "vultures")
(c) "bus" people who play all day betting 1 line - 1 coin (or anything less than 10 coins)
(d) and of course, which denominations are on the machine, and how many games

For example, I've been trying out a new area over the past year - visiting a few days each month.
Spent about 60 days total here in 2015.
(1) 200-220 UX machines in 8 casinos.
(2) Conservatively perhaps people leave $5/day/machine. That's $1,000/day.
(3) In practice, I find +120 EV/day.
(4) So I'm getting about 12% of the multipliers...due to very heavy competition.
(5) +120 EV/day = $44K/yr

The fun of VUX'ing for me is figuring what kind of search pattern will have the highest hourly rate.
Which hours of which days in which casino...

If you did only VUX'ing (it's 10-12% of my income), you would find more +EV than me in this area.
Also, if you worked more than 8 hrs/day...higher +EV

Quote: Exoter175

Now, if vegas were completely devoid of all hustlers, vultures, and VUXers, I'd easily make over $200,000 in vegas without the competition, and that's probably a large, large understatement, and I'd likely have to incorporate and hire more employees to handle the workload.

One casino has a UX situation that is so nice that it's impossible for 1 person to make maximum profits.
There are 46-48 UX machines (most of which have 0.05, 0.10, 0.25, 0.50, & 1.00), and play is so heavy that
even a team of two can't pick up all the multipliers fast enough.

Takes 2-3 hrs just to make one pass through all the machines.

About $100,000 UX annually in just one casino (+120-150 EV weekdays, +300-1,000 EV weekends and holidays)
Usually there are 3-4 heavy regular searchers ... and 5-10 others.
One guy's been camped out there for the past 6+ years.

If you jump in the fray, and work hard, you can get about 45K-60K out of the 100K.

Averages $12/hr during most of the weekdays (except 2 am - 10 am),
and maybe 2X-4X on weekends (or less if a lot of traveling APs show up).

Quote: GWAE

Threads like this are when I miss mickey. He would have been suspended at leat 3 times from this thread alone.

Depends on what time of day it was. : )

Sometime between noon at 5, we may have all learned something?

Nobody cares about UX vultures.

Idk where Exotar is from (well, I have an idea)...but wherever he's at, apparently there isn't much competition, at least compared to Vegas.


If you can do real/good AP, it'll still be a grind, but it's a nice steady grind where it's nearly impossible to lose, and you make good money with a big edge. Unfortunately you can't scale UX upwards as you can with some other plays.

Quote: RS

Nobody cares about UX vultures.

.

I do

When they are hovering over me hoping I'll leave.

For a good time Load up a UX machine and pretend you're broke and getting ready to leave. Every few minutes make a slight motion as if you are getting up while you do some texting or make a call.

Meanwhile have you're friend go pick off the rest of the UX's in the casino.

Have him circle back and sit next to you as if he doesn't know you then eventually let him have the machine.

Quote: AxelWolf

See this is all a slight red flag to me because I must know all 6 of the guys well including 10 more.

Honestly I don't think you're as experienced , knowledgeable about real AP as you're leading us to believe, including the amount of money you're claiming/insinuating.

I don't hate you, I'm glad you're passionate about AP, but honestly I think you're making APs look bad with the excessive bragging and egotistical personality. I'm kinda almost embarrassed to be an AP as I can only imagine what some others are thinking the more you say .( Dam you Wizard for +1 ing Ex's already big ego).
I know a few other less outspoken AP's that feel the same way(yes you know you've got our attention when people are privately talking about you, unfortunately most of it's negative)

KJ mentioned that you seemed like a newb not to long ago. I'm Almost offended that you used his good name making seem as if he could and would vouch for you. That's a serious issue in the AP world.

Player X as you call it Spends almost no time counting because it's a wast of time compared to other stuff, not to mention the risk of being tagged as a counter. Player x only vultures UX on rare occasions usually just because he finds it fun and can't resist a +EV situation. I guarantee he doesn't spend hardly anytime playing scavenger plays. There's nothing wrong with Bonus machine sniping or comp hustling because I've done everything from this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgEApN9ap0A and playing just about every normal game you can find in a casino including VP, keno (video and live), sports, bingo, lotto, roulette, online, horses, craps, war, big 6, etc. to being on an all day play while we're betting $1250.00 a pull on a slot machine. All with significant +EV upwards of up to 400%.

You're assessment of what you call comp hustlers is way off and your obviously miss informed what playing for mail/comps etc is worth from the 9/5 ers. I'm also thinking KJs partner is what you conciser a comp/mail hustler 9 to 5 er. And no they don't break about even daily, they also have big swings compared to the levels they play.

NO ONE knows everything in AP and no one is on all the good plays early(not even close). If this were true Why have I been on good plays (some long term) and yet no other pro's know about it, and visa versa?


You mentioned someone earning 1k a month in FP was low and went on bragging you made 3x that . Frankly There's at least 6 guys on here laughing at your 3k a month because they probably get 2x that amount at just 1 casino.

You have made many long posts in a short period of time however I fail to see how they actually contributed anything fresh or meaningfully especially with what all your claiming.

I'm not saying all of this to be mean spirited or a jerk (I understand it's doesn't feel that way when its directed at you) Honestly I'm trying to help you. I have seen this before and it never ends well.

Yes you're helping create more posts and views on the forum but so did B79, and whats his name?Spaghett? verbetti? clamidia? hell I don't remember (Mr. my cat rolls around in my money made from both side baccarat betting)

Strive to be player X and learn less is sometimes more.

If you've met a player x before, I'd be surprised Axel, I've been all over the country and haven't met many of them, myself included. I'm not saying they don't exist, because its obvious that I've stated they do, but the likelihood is that you just met a more common (used figuratively) Machine AP, and many people confuse the two.

As far as what KJ said, you're taking that out of context. That was a card counting forum two years ago when I began posting, and I didn't correct him or debate the fact that I came off as a "newb" because I was. I wanted to learn from the best, so I started discussion with KJ, T3, etc. so that I could speed up my learning process. Fast forward to now, and I'm a pretty grizzled veteran in that regard. As KJ will also tell you, anybody can be taught to count cards, its not difficult. But don't his expressions out of context, either, he was specifically relating his opinion towards card counting, not machine hustling.

As far as your assertion of Player X, you're absolutely dead wrong if you don't think he'll count or vulture. Player X is all about managing his time, and milking its value. Whether it be counting or vulturing, if he's got an extra minute to do something, he does it. While it is true that he wont' count nearly as often as the other plays, you can't disregard the fact. I am, after all, Player X, Axel. I rarely "have" to count, but there are times that I'll find myself "waiting" in a "hold" pattern, and instead of just sitting there and day dreaming, I'll go counting.

As far as comp hustlers are concerned, Axel, I didn't "brag" about 3k/mo being anything other than more than the 1k/mo being a silly and arbitrary threshold. I know there are guys that earn some pretty ridiculous comps, and I'll honestly say I don't know the "ceiling" there either. I also know the swings, Axel, because I do it. That point about breaking even at the end of the day, wasn't in terms of their tangible cash value walking out of the casino, but the money they earned via multipliers on their slotplay, the bonus from the equation being the mailers, which I had assumed you were experienced and wise enough to know better than to make that statement, perhaps I've misread your experience.

As far as you being on your "good play" without a pro finding out, perhaps its not that good of a play, or perhaps there's even a better play out there for the money? Have you considered that, instead of assuming you were king of the mountain?

Quote: darkoz

Exoter, you asked if my claim I was making $8,000 a day was an average or was I making 8K for a short period of time while making less money other times of the year.

The answer is the latter. I did not make an average of $8,000 a day for a year. I could make that and hope to soon but that instance was a situation that came at a bad time where the casino for reasons other than me got really sweaty. They were being hit by well over a thousand hustlers. The wave of bannings from the casino was such that security was taking in ten people or more a day.

Now, you bring up a good point. This whole reduction of hourly wages per year or daily wages per day annually. I come from the film world so my training is not to do that. In film, we just state what we were paid on a daily basis without all this break down.

For example, take a typical stage actor. He works for three months on Broadway at $1,000 and hour. Then, after that gig, he's on off-off Broadway working $100 and hour and finally, for a quick month he might do a student film for $50 a day. What does he tell people when asked about his income?

"Well, I was clearing about $1,000 bucks an hour for awhile but now I'm in between roles, so I'm slumming a bit."

What he doesn't do is say: "Well, I added up all the money I made this year and divided it by hours so I made $12.65 and hour as an actor this year."

As most AP's know, there are ups and downs in this business but as you state, we are our own boss. No one can fire us. We just keep on trekking. As opposed to just about any job that pays steady with a boss where you can be canned instantly with nothing left but to find another position somewhere else.

The reason I mentioned that, was because when people here you claim 8k/day, they are assuming 365 days a year, not once or twice a month, which is why it would draw confusion and skepticism. It also sounded more like a situation where you made 8k in one day because things just worked out, rather than an angle that you can recreate over and over again.

Quote: RS

Nobody cares about UX vultures.

Idk where Exotar is from (well, I have an idea)...but wherever he's at, apparently there isn't much competition, at least compared to Vegas.


If you can do real/good AP, it'll still be a grind, but it's a nice steady grind where it's nearly impossible to lose, and you make good money with a big edge. Unfortunately you can't scale UX upwards as you can with some other plays.

UX vultures are just another tool for the trade, RS, and you should know that. They are immensely profitable and should never be overlooked. If you consider yourself a Player X, but don't VUX or bonus vulture or card count, you probably aren't a player x, though Axel would disagree. The point was that if you apply all the tools of the trade at every casino, you can make damned good money, but if you only count, only VUX, only DI, only Machine Hustle, etc. you will be inherently limited to the $/hr that you could otherwise squeeze out, which is exactly why I went to BJTF a few years back to learn from you guys, because I acknowledged the fact that there are dead points in my day infrequently that I could otherwise be using to generate +EV with.

And yes, you are absolutely right on multiple accounts. VUX grind is nearly impossible to ever lose at, and its a very good grind with a big edge, but it is a grind, and not everyone is cut out for that. Beyond that, it doesn't scale very well, which makes location and sheer number of machines a better indicator.

You are also correct, the competition isn't like Vegas, and I wouldn't choose Vegas over what I have. I've been there, I've competed over short periods where I'm in town, and its a mad house compared to everywhere else in the country. Instead of having 4-5 guys per casino elsewhere in the country, you've got 55 per casino in vegas, its nutty, but it comes with the territory as these guys make things far too obvious for themselves and ultimately they end up showing too many people how its done, inadvertently, and create more competition for themselves.

Now, Axel did say something important, and that was something along the lines of striving to learn. That's what I do, every single day. I've picked up multiple angles Axel won't even know about for a year or two, and he's sitting here posting like he's the crown authority on the matter. I've literally read posts of his about some specific angles I know about, where its clear (to me) that he's missing a big part of the angle and giving up a ton of +EV, so either he knows and he's being coy, or he truly doesn't know. If he doesn't know, does he really have such an authority to make bold claims against me? I doubt it, though he likely would have the support of the forum in doing so since he's been "here" longer, but not necessarily out "there".

What Axel should be doing is PMing me and grilling me on what I know, and sharing mutual information, like any smart Player X would do with another, as I've done in the past. Instead, its almost as if the guy feels threatened by my presence on this forum, and has become aggressive towards me, and breaking numerous rule violations in the process, where's babs to ban him? Bias.

Axel's earlier post was dead on.

For those who have questioned the $8k a day claim, I made that amount every day for about a two week period. It was not a lucky happening trust me.

I spent about 4 hours per day in the casino so about 2K per hour. I was not the only person involved.

I had a crew of about twelve people helping out. They would get there before me and sometimes stay after. In man hours, it was more than 4 hours per day but that's how much time I was in there.

The casino was in a heated war with me at that point and was doing everything within their (seeming) power to shut me down. I say seeming because there were things I felt (and worried) they might do which they never thought of. Not sure if they were slow or I was fooling them better than I believed I could. I definitely was camouflaging myself and crew as best I could.

In the end, each new counter-measure they undertook lowered my ability to make money and I moved on. It was a tiring and exhaustive experience. But I made a nice boatload of money before it ended as did a lot of my compatriots.

Exotar, I can assure you Axel knows 20x the amount of stuff he (and others) write here. That's what most APs, who write about AP on public forums, do -- they don't write about everything they do, just a small piece, always leaving out tidbits of info that can turn a play from a 1% winner to a 20% winner.

Maybe you're being coy and only writing about the obvious/easy stuff: CC, UX, etc. Because if you had the information you claim to have, you wouldn't be spending 8 hours a day in a casino hustling slots & UX nor would you be card counting....at least not for a majority of your time.

All of my UX vulturing and I'm pretty much of Axel's is NOT from going out of our way to look at UX, that is never the goal in a casino. It's usually walking through a casino, waiting to meet up with someone, taking a short break to sit down and relax and stumble upon a UX machine. So I sit and look for multipliers...a thing usually done in jest -- it's a fun thing to do on the side, making a joke like "EV is EV, brah!"

Agree rs- and will agree axel knows 20x what he puts on here.
More importantly I don't know Exoter finds the time to write diatribes, I myself am not even close to the busiest and at best I have time to write short sentences when taking a break or just walking around a casino

Quote: teliot

Think of Phil Ivey, who won $12M at Crockfords and $9M at Revel edge sorting baccarat. Think of Don Johnson who won $15 beating loss rebates in AC. You think they're the only ones who made millions beating table games? Don't be naive.

My God, man, how desperate can one be for AP proof?

One must consider the amounts wagered, the periods of play, and the special circumstances.

Concerning Johnson, "During the financial crisis of 2008 casinos became desperate to entice high rollers. In 2010, Johnson was made offers to play at the highest stakes. He negotiated several changes to standard casino blackjack in order to gain a mathematical edge. These changes included dealers being forced to stay on soft 17, a 20% rebate where casino would refund 20% of his losses (20 cents to every dollar) for losses exceeding $500,000, six decks, re-split aces, and others.

During a 12 hour marathon at the Tropicana, Johnson recalls three consecutive hands where he won $1.2 million including one hand where he profited $800,000. Johnson bet $100,000 and received two eights which he split. Surprisingly, another two eights came and he split again wagering a total of $400,000. He received a three, a two, another three, and another two on the four hands allowing him to double down on each hand. He was now wagering a total of $800,000. The dealer busted and Johnson ended up winning $800,000 in profit." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Johnson_(gambler)

Concerning Ivey, what don't we know about it? Lots. Certainly, Ivey has to be the most idiotic cheater ever.

How about Karas? "Archie Karas turned $50 into $40 million over a three-year streak. Arrested for allegedly marking cards at a casino in Lakeside, California. Karas lost only one game from 1992 to 1995, winning around $40 million in a streak known as 'The Run'".
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2436703/Archie-Karas-arrested-Pro-gambler-turned-50-40m-caught-cheating-San-Diego.html

With the large number of gamblers and casinos, it's a wonder there haven't been more crazy AP stories alone. Sure, the AP's run the casinos, but always after the casinos lose big or change promotions, etc.

Quote: teliot

Regarding members coming here who are playing at the millions-per-year level, there are a few here. Sho55 is at that level (I am sure his team is well over 1M per year). He more or less brags about it, so I am not giving anything away in his case. A few others I won't mention.

Isn't it always the overly analytical ones who fall for stuff like this? Suddenly, all analysis goes out the window.

I had no clue about "machine AP" from 1990-2007 and did table games.
Missed the "golden age" of AP slots.

From the few good APs of that era which I've met:
1) Over 90% of their old buddies do not do any machine AP anymore.
Too boring to play today compared to days when $500-$3,000+/hr were possible;
e.g. sustained $10,000-15,000/day for months (unconfirmed)
2) Most invested in real-estate, stocks, etc...
3) When the return on your investments dwarfs the return of day-to-day casino play,
it's a lot less interesting. Read Bob Dancer's blog on how many hrs he worked when younger.
The old hourly rates are just not available any more.

There was an good un-gaffed/normal machine in a casino from Mar 2012 - Aug 2012.
Worth $20,000-30,000/month and usually didn't need more than a few hundred to play it.
7 of us APs chopped the plays, trying not to fight. $800-$1,000/day.

What I was told by old-timers, is that casinos sometimes had 20, 50, 100
bonus machines like that. 20 APs in a casino could each make $2,000-4,000/day. (unconfirmed)

-----
Fast forward to today. A good situation in 2010-2013 with 30 machines (of type X).
$15,000-25,000/month. 8 APs each making $2,000-$3,000/wk. Drastic shift 10X lower.
$300-500/day. What's funny is that this was the same casino as the one mentioned above,
and most of those 7 APs didn't realize how profitable the second situation was, even
being in the same casino day-in-day-out for 3-6 months... :-)

APs have their specialities, and they may not recognize other profitable plays.
I've seen machines...and been totally clueless for years (duh. right. oops).

More recent situation Feb 2013 - Aug 2013. 4 decent machines (of type Y).
$25,000-30,000/month. 10 APs ended up fighting because one pair decided they
wanted all the plays. Called security a lot, tried to 86 people, etc... $800-1,000/day.

Type X & Type Y machines still exist today, and probably all the slot AP players here
know both types of games. However, I know of no situations which have
(a) enough machines
(b) enough players
to create decent hourly rates.

Type X plays mostly worth $6-30.
Type Y plays mostly worth $60-200.

Funny story from March 2014.

New machines (Call them A & B) were released which have unusual play.
One of Machine A and Machine B were sitting next to each other.

A guy clued me in to Machine B, and just the two of us were playing it for
about 3 months before others caught on.
- Someone saw me hit am $800+ bonus, and the "gig was up".

What's funny? APs that I knew were playing machine A right next
to me for a whole month before I figured out what they were doing.
Why? It was the losing & "break-even" APs who were playing machine A.
None of the better APs had yet figured it out (or were keeping quiet).

Two APs playing right next to each other, with three other APs hanging out watching.
And yet Machine A players and Machine B players each thought the others were
playing unprofitable machines.

Both machines are high variance, so there's a high percentage of losers (maybe 75%+)

Quote: AxelWolf

I remember Sigma years ago stopped giving out locations of their machines without credentials because of this.

One of the companies I work for put out a game recently that had a bug in it that some players found. One player kept calling our office and leaving messages asking us if different casinos had the game. Had he just done his own homework without being lazy the play may have lasted longer.

Quote: RS

Nobody cares about UX vultures.

I think UX is the best AP play ever discussed in depth on the forum. I hope the discussion continues for a long time.