Up four figures in craps

Quote: sodawater

Though experiment: a new craps bet called "the super pass line."

1. Whatever you roll on the come out becomes your point. Any number.

2. If you rolled anything but a 7 on the come out, you must repeat this point 9 times in a row before you repeat a seven 10 times in a row. If you rolled a 7 on the come out, you must repeat the 7 ten times in a row before you repeat a 6 nine times in a row.

The "edge per roll" of this bet is so small it's probably rounded zero. But since you can't take it down, you have to face the house edge per bet resolved.

Thought experiment: Any random shooter will lose less money with $205 on the passline compared to a $205 Iron Cross.

Why not just say the pass line is an invalid bet if you want to make this argument?

If I bet a $30 pass line and neutralize every point established, the average edge per roll is STILL lower than the Iron Cross. I may have to roll a few more times to take my money, but other than that, there's no action and the bet is down from my perspective. Unless you lose all your money (more likely with the Iron Cross).

The Iron Cross includes the Field.

The Field is a bad bet.

Therefore the Iron Cross is bad bet.

Pass line with neutralized points is strictly betting on sevens and elevens. Everything else is a loser. And it's STILL better than the Iron Cross! That alone should say something.

The Iron Cross is a death grind from the house edge and nothing more unless you get really lucky in the short run, or you have an amazing shooter and you're happy with 1/2 to 1/4 the profit you could have had if you knew how to bet against the seven avoiding the 5 place, and the Field.

Most guys who bet the iron cross do it with $5 four and $5 tens to boot. Talk about ignorant!!!

$30 buy on the 5 ($1 vig on win only)
$30 6-8-field....
$120 action...weeee
I'd MUCH rather have $30 pass with $90 odds

now back to your regularly scheduled program, already in progress...

Back to the original point of this being brought up, hurdles for a controlled shooter are measured in the domain of "per roll."

This is why the edge "per roll" is so important.

2.78% per roll is no good for a bet that covers so many outcomes.

I do hard 8's, but I get 1 in 28.5 hard 8's for my 3400 recorded rolls. And even then I don't bet that for a lot of money. It's still just because I can mostly.

$110 even working, or crapless with single or more odds is about the highest edge I will attempt. And those are both well under 1.00% per roll.

I really like 0.2% to 0.4% ideally with the minimum dollar risk at any moment.

Quote: TIMSPEED

$30 buy on the 5 ($1 vig on win only)
$30 6-8-field....
$120 action...weeee
I'd MUCH rather have $30 pass with $90 odds

now back to your regularly scheduled program, already in progress...

I'd MUCH rather have $30 pass with $90 odds
Wow just yesterday you stated that the best way to play craps is to just play minimum on the line and odds. Now your telling us to do $30 Pass and $90 Odds?
Geee do you have any proof that this is the way to play craps ?
As stated earlier I did not believe that YOU played minimum.
You scare me, you fluctuate too much from day to day. Not taking your advice.

Quote: sevenout77

I'd MUCH rather have $30 pass with $90 odds
Wow just yesterday you stated that the best way to play craps is to just play minimum on the line and odds. Now your telling us to do $30 Pass and $90 Odds?
Geee do you have any proof that this is the way to play craps ?
As stated earlier I did not believe that YOU played minimum.
You scare me, you fluctuate too much from day to day. Not taking your advice.

I'm not sure but I think he's saying pretty much anything is better than Iron Cross.

THERE'S A FIELD BET IN THERE!!!

quick concept of iron 205 cross:

roll dice: anything but 7 you win $32.08 on average (30 wins / 36 outcomes)
7 rolls you lose $205, avg -$34.17 per roll

Iron Cross you lose $2.08 per $205 wagered per roll.


field bet is strictly a hedge for covering all the numbers, the negative EV isnt terrible considering the size of the bet. -1.02% edge

pretty sure we have covered how the passline bet is worse

PASS LINE BET:

$205 pass line

Come Out roll:
wins 8/36 x $205 = $45.56 (22.2%)
losses 4/36 x -$205 = -$22.78 (11.1%)

point 24/36 (66.7%)

4 - 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$17.08 (8.4%) house edge
5 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$11.39 (5.6%)
6 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$5.69 (2.8%)
8 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$5.69 (2.8%)
9 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$11.39 (5.6%)
10- 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$17.08 (8.4%)



Now we have to take weighted average of these above figures to get this.

-$17.08 x 6outs + -$11.39 x 8outs + -$5.69 x 10 outs = $250.5 / 24 outs = -$10.44

-$10.44 / $205 = -5.09% (average disadvantage after point is established)

now we combine come out roll and after point is established to get total house edge

22.2% x $45.56 = $10.12
11.1% x -$22.78 = -$2.53

$10.12 + (-$2.53) = $7.59

now combine both
-$10.44 + $7.59 = -$2.85

-$2.85 / $205 = -1.39%

PASS LINE BET:

$205 pass line

Come Out roll:
wins 8/36 x $205 = $45.56 (22.2%)
losses 4/36 x -$205 = -$22.78 (11.1%)

point 24/36 (66.7%)

4 - 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$17.08 (8.4%) house edge
5 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$11.39 (5.6%)
6 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$5.69 (2.8%)
8 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$5.69 (2.8%)
9 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$11.39 (5.6%)
10- 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $205 - 6/36 x -$205 = -$17.08 (8.4%)



Now we have to take weighted average of these above figures to get this.

-$17.08 x 6outs + -$11.39 x 8outs + -$5.69 x 10 outs = $250.5 / 24 outs = -$10.44

-$10.44 / $205 = -5.09% (average disadvantage after point is established)

now we combine come out roll and after point is established to get total house edge

22.2% x $45.56 = $10.12
11.1% x -$22.78 = -$2.53

$10.12 + (-$2.53) = $7.59

now combine both
-$10.44 + $7.59 = -$2.85

-$2.85 / $205 = -1.39%

$205 wagered on iron cross you lose $2.08 per roll

$205 wagered on pass line with no odds you lose $2.85 per roll


hmmmm..... you win guys i guess pass line bet it is.

The reason the overall house edge appears to be less than the house edge of each individual bet is because the house edge on place bets is generally measured as expected player loss per bet resolved.However in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll. This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4.00% to 1.11% on the 5 and 9, and from 1.52% to 0.46% on the 6 and 8. - straight from the wizard

For you purists who think I am inconsistent in measuring the house edge on place bets as per bet resolved (or ignoring ties) then I invite you to visit my craps appendix 2 where all craps bets are measured per roll (including ties). - straight from the wizard

https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/betting-systems/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/

again iron cross prevails against pass line bet with no odds

Quote: nezbit

$205 wagered on iron cross you lose $2.08 per roll

$205 wagered on pass line with no odds you lose $2.85 per roll


hmmmm..... you win guys i guess pass line bet it is.

I always heard you lose 7 cents on each $5 bet on the passline (I know it's a tad more). So $2.87 for a $205 pass line bet. But that does not resolve on each roll. So let's start comparing apples to apples, shall we?

How did my thread about my wins become someone calling me stupid for not betting the Iron Cross again? Any moderators care to inform the new guy about any rules related to this? I tried to be nice. I tried to tell him take the discussion elsewhere, still he wants to talk about Iron Cross on my thread about wins?

Well, anyway, after depositing my bankroll, I lost the remaining bankroll all in one session tonight. In a way it's sort of relief because I needed a break from gambling as it was occupying a lot of my time.

But for what it's worth, people just like Nezbit always want to get involved, both here on this forum and in the casino. I was playing at a time when I did not have an empty table, and there was so many distractions and annoyances. I'm really glad I deposited the $3000, because that's $3000 that I didn't lose. But I lost the rest of it.

Nezbit: even if you were right, and hopefully by now you realize that I was doing my best to help you, why the hell do you insist on bugging me when I am telling you straight up I don't even care. I mean even if you were right, I was all "take it to another thread." You know? I mean why the hell you gotta bug me? Seriously?

Alan Mendelson is the same way and there are others.

I'm being very honest about everything that I am doing, and yes I lost what I didn't deposit. I'm not really happy about it, but I'm sure all the people who have been criticizing me and talking about how I'm certainly going to lose can all celebrate now.

But honestly, to all you folks who are constantly bugging me and criticizing me, I really want to know why the hell you can't just take the first hint when I say something along the lines of "please.... make another thread." And still we go on and on and on.

I wanted to talk about how happy I was that I met my goals. But NOOOO. Let's talk about how "stupid" I am for not betting the Iron Cross. Do you know how much time I wasted dealing with you and your accusations that I am stupid? Do you know how much you have annoyed me today? Do you know how much you have taken away from my happiness from your choosing to ignore my requests to read the FAQ's and stop bugging me? Seriously?

And don't even get me started about Alan Mendelson, or Mr V, or sodawater, or even Zcore.

All you guys cue up the celebration music that I lost what money I didn't put into my home equity this morning. I don't have a penny to gamble with right now.

So all of you guys can rejoice in my misery, now.

But meanwhile, know this: you guys are goddamn annoying to me. All of you. And your comments absolutely affect me negatively. And those distractions and comments when I am trying to do something else have a very detrimental effect to my desire to focus on more positive things relating to my success.

I don't know if it's jealousy or what. Maybe a self-fulfilling prophecy that if you talk enough shit and distract me from what I'm doing I won't be able to do what I'm trying to do because I'm dealing with all these really stupid conversations about bull crap, and then I lose focus, and you guys can be all "see, I told ya so!!!"

Really? Thanks guys!

I'm absolutely ready to meet any and all of my critics in person. Get on the don't side on my throw and give me some real motivation to show you my shot! I would love to take some naysayer's lay money.

You seem to have an almost pathological need for attention, and yet, ironically, you also seem to have the total inability to cope with anyone pointing out things you are clearly wrong about. This seems to be your major problem W/R/T/ "haters" on this forum.

Quote: Ahigh

. Get on the don't side on my throw and give me some real motivation to show you my shot! I would love to take some naysayer's lay money.

I don't think anyone here thinks you can throw anything but randomly. If you actually could throw non-randomly enough that the don't side would make money, that would be just as good as throwing non-randomly enough that the pass side makes money. So your "challenge" doesn't make an ounce of sense. It's completely nonsensical.

Ahigh: "I can throw the dice non-randomly."

Naysayers: "No you can't."

Ahigh: "Oh yeah, well go bet the don't pass [a negative expectation bet] to prove me wrong!"

The fact that you would issue such an illogical challenge -- and the repeated references to "per roll" analysis of contract bets -- leads me to conclude that you do not even have a basic understanding of the rules of craps, high-school level probability, and middle-school level logic. You've been a bit exposed in this thread, I am sorry to say.

Quote: sodawater

You seem to have an almost pathological need for attention, and yet, ironically, you also seem to have the total inability to cope with anyone pointing out things you are clearly wrong about. This seems to be your major problem W/R/T/ "haters" on this forum.

I don't think anyone here thinks you can throw anything but randomly.

Alright, that's interesting. Read this and tell me if you still "don't think anyone here thinks you can throw anything but randomly."

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/13898-played-dice-with-ahigh-tonight/15/#post240891

Quote: sodawater

If you actually could throw non-randomly enough that the don't side would make money, that would be just as good as throwing non-randomly enough that the pass side makes money. So your "challenge" doesn't make an ounce of sense. It's completely nonsensical.

To you maybe. But really? It sounds like you have a very limited view of the theoretical effects of a consistent toss and set are.

Quote: sodawater

Ahigh: "I can throw the dice non-randomly."

Naysayers: "No you can't."

Ahigh: "Oh yeah, well go bet the don't pass [a negative expectation bet] to prove me wrong!"

The fact that you would issue such an illogical challenge -- and the repeated references to "per roll" analysis of contract bets -- leads me to conclude that you do not even have a basic understanding of the rules of craps, high-school level probability, and middle-school level logic. You've been a bit exposed in this thread, I am sorry to say.

No it wouldn't prove anything. I just want to take the naysayers money. Put up your money is all I'm saying.

Maybe someone else can arbitrate your association with how I feel about passline contract bet's only having an edge per roll of 0.42% and that being better than an edge per roll of an Iron Cross. But I'm pretty sure that my analysis of edge per roll on the passline is pretty spot on as a less expensive way to get action on the table than betting the field and place bet on the five, as it has recently been talked about.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/13962-iron-cross-vs-pass-line/2/#post241881

You threw the word "prove" in there. Not my words at all. I just want to take your money is all. I don't care if it's luck or not. And if you get my money, that's fine too. But just like your comments up there, you really pull out a lot of criticism with very derogatory comments. I'm just saying, "let's go for real then."

Fun? Luck? Skill? Whatever!!! Let's go!!!

Quote: sodawater

leads me to conclude that you do not even have a basic understanding of the rules of craps, high-school level probability, and middle-school level logic.

Just wanted to get back to this comment. If you truly believe these things, you sir are the one exposed.

Who else believes in the conclusions that sodawater has arrived at in the above quote?

If this isn't skirting the rules on name calling, I'm not sure what is. I think sodawater likes to dance around the rules to bait others to call him names with comments like the comments about about his "conclusions" which are more specifically a label pinning me down with a description that isn't quite a "name" but effectively accomplishes the same goal. He would much rather just say "Ahigh you're a dumbass" if he were allowed to do that, I think.

Instead he resorts to obviously false statements such as "leads me to conclude that you do not even have a BASIC UNDERSTANDING OF THE RULES OF CRAPS."

That is such a crock of shit!! And that statement is just an outright lie! There's no way you can truly believe that.

I have no idea why you would make such an obviously false statement except as a replacement for calling me a name! It has got to just be a straight lie.

If you truly believe that, though, wow .. how informative of your mental capacities to think that.

You sir, are the one exposed in my opinion.

Quote: Ahigh

Get on the don't side on my throw and give me some real motivation to show you my shot! I would love to take some naysayer's lay money.

This remarks hits a nerve for me.

Normally, I would let it slide and not bother to respond.

I have complimented you, Aaron, on occasion. I have also been critical of you. Actually, "I have questioned you" would be a more accurate statement. I have not been one to get into pissing matches with you.

But this remarks hits home, even though, hopefully, you are not directing this remark to me personally. Maybe I should excuse you since it appears you could be venting as the result of losing your $1,000 bankroll.

I am a Don't player. Not a particularly small Don't player. I don't flaunt it and I don't make a scene when I win.

I am accustomed to the lack of love at the table. I've overheard unkind, sometimes hateful, comments directed my way. Doesn't generally bother me. It goes with the territory.

But I want everyone to win. It doesn't happen often that we both can win at the same time--but it does happen. (More often, we both lose.)

But when we win, we take the casino's money. I am not taking the Do players' money and they're not taking mine.

I've never approached a craps table with the view that I want to bankrupt another player.

And here you are wanting my action so you can have "real motivation" to take my money! How nice! (As if you even had such control to succeed.)

The reports of your craps sessions are often replete with excuses, myths, even superstitions. Now I can add vindictiveness to the list.

Why don't you approach the tables with a more kind and charitable view of the other players and the crew?

You may find that you will be rewarded with good karma.

Trying to pay down your mortgage by gambling when you don't have an edge is a fools errand. Of course you lost, you're supposed to lose. The amazing thing is a smart guy like you seems surprised by it. At least you have a lot of scapegoats to blame. Whew, huh...

The Iron Cross method that nezbit describes has a HA of 1.016% per roll. On a 41 unit bet, the expected loss per roll is .4167 units.

A 41 unit pass line bet has an expected loss per RESOLUTION of .57974 units. However, the per roll loss is .57974/3.3758 or .2440 units PER ROLL.

It doesn't matter that the pass line bet is a contract bet. The only way to compare iron cross to any other method is to compare it on a roll by roll basis. If an Iron Cross player vs PL brings $1025 to the table and bets $205/bet, their money will be gone in 492 rolls where as the pass line's money will last 840 rolls.

To state that Iron Cross is better than P/L is just ridiculous.
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I think that what bothers a bunch of people is the complete arrogance of Ahigh on this forum in general (note the qualifier). Perhaps it's because the membership of this forum goads him into this attitude, but as I said before, you can choose what you react to.

Ahigh clearly believes that he is a better crap player than most ordinary folk and has started this thread (and others) to prove it. He clearly believes that he has an advantage due to bias or influence. He happily puts pictures of him depositing money and cashing out chips and generally flaunting his wealth (be it bitcoin, crap, mortgages, etc).

This is why he has become a lightning rod for criticism. Deserved?

In my opinion, it will only be a matter of time before Ahigh takes $4K to a crap table or series of crap table and loses it all. He plays a martingale system with the goal of winning a little bit of money which works more often with the larger bankroll. This allows you to have a pile of winning sessions before a losing session brings it ALL crashing down. And I doubt we'll read about it that or any other failure of his here.

And this is the thing about life. Most of us are old enough to experience the ups and downs of life, be it winning sessions or losing sessions at a casino, job promotions or losses, love, arguments, kids, achievement and failures. We all have them. We tend to write about our positive experiences because we want people to look at us in our best light. AZ won't tell about the time he accidentedly endorsed a Democrat, for example. EvenBob doesn't advertise his day-to-day gaffes, and neither really do I.

The people I generally like most are the people who are honest about their life. The Wizard for example, for telling us about the mistakes he made with his wife's passport and his penalty of having to buy his wife a car... Face's crap with his son. Evenbob's escapades about his sister's thanksgiving cooking... and so on.

Except for Ahigh. Everyone who disagrees with him is wrong, including the dealers and the math experts. And that gets tired after awhile.

And maybe we are all wrong. There is a camp that believe the craps can be beaten. Perhaps taking $4k to a crap table to win $50 is the way to go. Perhaps getting upset at every crap dealer who disagrees with you or cops a bit of negative attitude is the right thing to do.

I want to be clear that I don't play a martingale system. Not at all. I generally flat bet. I lost $500 at regular craps first betting on a $10 table and I was betting more than single odds. I then lost the rest at crapless at a $10 with single odds. It did not take much bad luck at all to lose $1,000. I played last night from about 6:30 until 11:10 to lose. I was not doing a martingale system, though. One of the biggest complaints that I get from dealers is that I never press and I generally don't increase my bets.

The only exception to my play is the rare exception when I parlay a hardway. I have frequently published that I don't even play hardways, but I did start doing hardway parlays a few weeks ago.

I take a lot of shit from a lot of people on this forum (including that that my charts are pretty and so on from you boy). It takes up a lot of my time the things that I do regardless of the lack of value that people see in them.

I also take a lot of care to be honest in everything as well.

In terms of proving that what I am doing it real, one of the people who told me that key to proof was execution in the casino was the Wizard himself.

The thing is that inclusive of all the things that I have done on this forum, they are extremely time consuming. And when people seem to take such joy in criticizing me very nearly continuously and there is only the rare exception when someone takes the time to say, "hey maybe just maybe" as you did in one post.

But anyway, boy, you can just join the club if you're decided that I am playing a martingale system. The only thing that I have been doing differently in the casinos recently with regards to bet amounts is taking odds generally at all. I've been known as someone who will play passline with no odds. Frequently with very large come bets before attempting to do things more compatible with the math guys' suggestions around here. And that has bankroll requirements. Requirements that I am still not accustomed to. I usually started with $100 and leave with $125 on a daily trip. Going all up and down to come up $100 to $500 to get a lower overall edge is something that is new for me, but it's absolutely not a martingale system. Just trying to take advantage of a lower ratio of sevens that I am hoping is more than just luck in my roll data.

But in all, I am very tired. I am tired of the constant dog piling on everything I do and say on here. I am tired of the comments that, for example, say that I have no math skills, or that I have something that is merely "pretty" and yet isn't meaningful with my charts, or that something is wrong with me for wanting to bet against another player as a result of their apparent desire for me to lose to "learn" that it's a negative expectation game .. even for me.

I've worked my butt off, and I consciously decided yesterday to cut back to $1,000 bankroll, and I'm done for a while. It's no big deal, really.

But all you guys effectively name-calling me and putting a label on me for what I'm doing are just wearing me out.

Quote: Ahigh

Alan Mendelson is the same way and there are others.

Do not use my name in vain. I haven't discussed anything with you in this thread. Leave me out of it.

Quote: Jimbo

I am a Don't player. Not a particularly small Don't player. I don't flaunt it and I don't make a scene when I win. I am accustomed to the lack of love at the table. I've overheard unkind, sometimes hateful, comments directed my way. Doesn't generally bother me. It goes with the territory. But I want everyone to win. It doesn't happen often that we both can win at the same time--but it does happen. (More often, we both lose.) But when we win, we take the casino's money. I am not taking the Do players' money and they're not taking mine. I've never approached a craps table with the view that I want to bankrupt another player.

The best expressed credo for us don't bettors that I have seen. I will reprint it (minus the second sentence) to keep in my wallet the next time some bozo gives the frown and the evil eye from the other end of the table. And then I'll try to slip it to him.

Don't try to make it sound like I am out to take ANY don't better's money on the table. That's not what I am saying at all.

All that I am saying is that for those who think my roll is 100% random, I will do this: I will bet the do's with odds of my choosing, and you bet the don'ts with the same odds. As long as you want to take the house's action, I'll throw you a chip every time a 12 comes on the comeout roll so you get a 100% free game.

This is just a way of saying that I am offering a way for someone to demonstrate with THEIR money that they believe fervently that I am a 100% random shooter by giving them a 100% free game to play.

This is only offering up an extra $0.02 per roll to give someone a free game because they are so focused on it being a "negative expectation game."

And it's not even because I want their money. It's because I want to offer a vehicle for someone to put up money. Just like SOOPOO makes bets to people: I am making a bet. I bet you $0.02 per roll you would not play a free game against me because there is a chance I have a larger edge against your bets that the house would have on a random shooter.

Let's not extrapolate what I am saying to mean that I want to take every don't player's money.

I can make a list of people I would like to personally play what should be a 100% free game during my rolls if I am a random shooter.

But I do not approach the game this way when I play. Just asking people who think I'm a 100% random shooter to play a "FREE GAME" with me under that assumption!

I'm just curious-- you mentioned the odds, but at what minimum for the flat bets? Would you do this at a $100 table?

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm just curious-- you mentioned the odds, but at what minimum for the flat bets? Would you do this at a $100 table?

This offer is for $10 maximum on the pass line, and you have to mirror the odds that I choose in order to get a free game.

I will do this on a 345x odds table. I'm not even asking that you step up to really big bets. Just lay $30 against me on a $5 table is what I would expect someone to be willing to do.

I don't want to just get into trying to out-bet somebody. Just straight lay 30 on every box number would be fine for someone and I'll toss you a $5 chip every time I roll boxcars on the comeout to keep you company while you tell me how I'm only random to goad me into the game.

And right now if I were to do this, I would have to find some money myself as I've locked it all away. But if someone stepped up to the plate, I have access to cash and I could get to it for such a noble cause. I do have $500 in my BitCoin account as a backup. I also have a couple thousand coming from Amber for the tungsten cubes.

But yes, please do understand my desire to "take your money" is still in good fun. And if you won or I won, it would be mostly luck for any single session of 200 to 1000 rolls! Just look at my charts and you can see I have ups and downs like any random shooter also has.

Let us say that your detractors all bet DP when you are shooting, and you hit a couple points before you seven out.

What would that prove?

You claim (or imply, anyway) that somehow it would show you are ... what, exactly?

A DI?

A winner?

It would in reality prove nothing because in the short run anything can and does happen.

You crave a showdown / definitive battle of some sort: ala The Highlander .

But a craps competition would be as meaningless as playing Rock, Paper, Scissors, and sword fighting is frowned upon: what to do?

What about arm wrestling?

100 yard dash?

Or, perhaps the gentlemen could unzip and play "mine is bigger?"

Quote: MrV

Let us say that your detractors all bet DP when you are shooting, and you hit a couple points before you seven out.

What would that prove?

You claim (or imply, anyway) that somehow it would show you are ... what, exactly?

A DI?

A winner?

It would in reality prove nothing because in the short run anything can and does happen.

You crave a showdown / definitive battle of some sort: ala The Highlander .

But a craps competition would be as meaningless as playing Rock, Paper, Scissors, and sword fighting is frowned upon: what to do?

What about arm wrestling?

100 yard dash?

Or, perhaps the gentlemen could unzip and play "mine is bigger?"

It would prove one thing and one thing only. That you weren't scared or too broke to ask for details of my challenge.

Maybe I need to remind you that I am STILL not a professional gambler. Nor do I claim to even have an edge at the game. I want one, sure!!!

But this is still just for entertainment ALL of this stuff that I am doing.

I have a day job!

I have to agree with MrV on this one. First, I wouldnt bet against you. Secondly I wouldnt want you to lose. Thirdly, anything could happen in craps and hopefully (whether you have actual dice controlling skill or not) you'd have the mother of all rolls and we'd both walk out of the casino with a million bucks.

So, I think your challenge is a "no go."

However -- why don't you go back to doing your TV show which costs you nothing and at the same time a platform not only to show you stuff but gives you the opportunity to actually build upon your idea for a craps TV show? THAT would be your BEST GAMBLE right now and you've already made your "buy in" with the table, the gear and you have some equity with the programs you've already had.

Actually, you're on a roll, so to speak.

Go back to being the "investigator" of craps.

I am actually planning to submerge myself in my work for a while. The Ahigh show is very time consuming. But I may do some more work there, just no plans at the moment.

I'll take you up on that challenge Aaron.. The next time I'm in Vegas...that way, we know for sure one of us is walking out of the casino a winner :p
Can we do it at a Boyd property? (I want the comps, haha)

Quote: Ahigh

You bet the don'ts with the same odds. As long as you want to take the house's action, I'll throw you a chip every time a 12 comes on the comeout roll so you get a 100% free game.

First, a lot of don't bettors do not lay odds. Second and far more basic, don't bettors do not lose their bets on 12's on the comeout.

Quote: SanchoPanza

First, a lot of don't bettors do not lay odds. Second and far more basic, don't bettors do not lose their bets on 12's on the comeout.

Right, but at a $10 table, if I threw them a single red chip, 29% (percentage of comeout rolls) of 1/36 of each roll is .29 / 36 = 0.04 cents per roll. True that on a red chip table, I would throw them two $2.50, so every other time it would be three bucks basically.

Sorry I wasn't clear about tossing half the pass line bet, but that's what I would do. They would effectively win half of any don't pass or DC with each twelve that came up on the initial roll of a don't pass or DC.

Quote: TIMSPEED

I'll take you up on that challenge Aaron.. The next time I'm in Vegas...that way, we know for sure one of us is walking out of the casino a winner :p
Can we do it at a Boyd property? (I want the comps, haha)

Yeah! There's a gamer. And understand folks, I don't take any hard feelings losing to you and would much rather have you put your money against my game in fun than to talk shit with they keyboard and no skin in the game. TIMSPEED isn't a critic, but I know this guy likes to have fun. So that's awesome, buddy! Thanks for stepping up!!!

Excellent. I was trying to figure out why you would use a bankroll of $4,000 to win $50 - $100 and the only thing I could come up with is Martingale.

The charts are pretty, but the number behind it, especially when you extrapolate current results to the future are indeed meaningless. They may be time-consuming, but they are meaningless.

The only statistics that matter are Chi-Squared and binomial analysis on results that deviate from random. That is the only way to prove that roll results are non-random. Period. 18 winning sessions in a row does not prove bias. It proves luck. If I go to my casino and win 18 times on video poker, it certainlty means that I am lucky and not that the cards are biased (unless I am playing VP with multipliers left on the machine). Execution in the casino means WINNING and RECORDING sessions in the casino. Now if the wizard took pictures of my video poker hands and determined that the machine was biased (dealing out more deuces on a DW machine) that would be a different story.

This thread is about being up 4 figures in craps. But winning doesn't indicate bias.

Your roll data at home, if unencumbered by variance, shows BY FAR that you have a tremendous playing advantage using your 4242 set and rolling for hard 8 (16% player advantage). Your SRR ratio (6.25:1) isn't high enough to give you an advantage on pass. So you should use that set and bet the hard 8 every time. Hell, make it your day job! A $15 working hard 8 (working resolves itself every 36/11 bets) with a $5 PL [no odds] should earn you close to $70/hour at 100 rolls/hour. That's $560/day or $134K/year. Now that's money in the bank!

If I were you I'd hone my 4242 set at home and keep recording rolls and see if that p-value for 44 keeps dropping. If it does, head out for the casino and quit your day job. If you can't get that p-value to drop or can't win money at the casino, spend the bankroll money on a well deserved honeymoon for the wife.

Quote: Ahigh

I don't take any hard feelings losing to you and would much rather have you put your money against my game in fun than to talk shit with they keyboard and no skin in the game.

I thought you don't like playing at tables with other players?

You've made that quite clear.

Seems you spend your life either alone at a craps table, or alone in your home tapping maniacally on a keyboard.

I see a trend ...

Quote: boymimbo

If I were you I'd hone my 4242 set at home and keep recording rolls and see if that p-value for 44 keeps dropping. If it does, head out for the casino and quit your day job. If you can't get that p-value to drop or can't win money at the casino, spend the bankroll money on a well deserved honeymoon for the wife.

Now this is the kind of comment that I need. I had been betting that until I starting doing more crapless action with single odds.

Looking at my charts, I can make about $1 per roll with a $60 eight working always. That's about $100 per hour for $60 worth of risk.

Also, working a $25 buy on the aces with commission on the win I can make more than $1 per roll, but it can be flat for a while.

I really have to get to $300 eights or more to make it worth my while. And that means I need a much bigger bankroll (and tougher stomach).

I'm not ready for that kind of volatility yet. Not quitting my day job.

Right now I'm doing $30 eights and also there is more action, but I'm not ready for doing 10x my bet amounts yet.

Quote: MrV

I thought you don't like playing at tables with other players?

You've made that quite clear.

Seems you spend your life either alone at a craps table, or alone in your home tapping maniacally on a keyboard.

I see a trend ...

Really? I do prefer it, but it's sort of impossible in this case. But this comment, really?!?!

Also, I straight up gamble every now and then too. I've been doing that less and less lately trying to win, but I do gamble too, ya know. When I'm out with Kelly I am usually just gambling and it's always a full table and we're just having fun. She normally only gets out when everyone else is out.

Aaron; What's up with come bets on a crapless table? Buy the numbers, vig on a win. Come bets have the same ev as a field bet where the 12 is only 2X!

Quote: DeMango

Aaron; What's up with come bets on a crapless table? Buy the numbers, vig on a win. Come bets have the same ev as a field bet where the 12 is only 2X!

Problem is vig is up front on weekdays (at the Strat).

I really need a serious bankroll to play craps. Dabbling in at single odds is a harder game than regular craps with no odds.

I do plenty of regular craps with no odds when I am broke and I can win.

But if you buy the aces, it's $1 up front to win $150 from $25. So the edge is 6/181 = 3.3% or about 0.64% per roll not much better than single odds.

I bought the twelve one time one day for $25 and I hit it that one time.

I did a little bit of double odds on crapless last night and even $25 odds, but my timing was horrible and it didn't help me. 90% of my losses were single odds just loading everything up with no repeaters. IE: very few sevens can kill ya too when you load up 8 number with no repeaters or one repeater on a single odds table.

Still a few stores in MS where you can buy aces for $35 and get paid $209 after $1 vig.

Yeah, that's a damn good deal. These guys here in Vegas are so tight with money. I've been telling them at Strat they need vig on the win on crapless.

They have some very big bankroll players on that crapless table though. There are some max odds players. One walked up yesterday and put $5000 on the table but they didn't service him quickly enough and he left asking to get his cash back.

After he left, the dealers were talking about him that he always bets max odds (that's $100 odds on every number).

Another guy I watched put $1,000 across on crapless and first roll was a seven. He then went on a long roll with $10 on the pass and nothing else, then he put up $3,000 across and again .. just one roll seven out. That guy lost $4,000 in two rolls! OUCH!!!

The same guy laid a $300 ace-deuce on me. I almost told him something about my ace-deuce to seven ratio, but I said nothing (I already had ace-deuce with $20 odds).

Quote: Ahigh

But all you guys effectively name-calling me and putting a label on me for what I'm doing are just wearing me out.

Poor poor baby. I was on a forum where I had 16,000
posts and was called names and dissed on a daily basis.
It didn't wear me down or tire me because I didn't
address it. You seem to delight in confronting every
slight hurled against you, and then bringing it up later,
again and and again, like you're doing now. You love
the attention apparently.

Quote: EvenBob

You love the attention apparently.

Thinking you see something coming at you out of the corner of your eye, it is "apparent;" getting hit in the face with a cream pie, it is "obvious."

There is nothing "apparent" about Aaron's need, his hunger, his desire for our undivided attention.

a better way to make the bet is just have someone cross book with you. (poker players with ego do this all the time and it sounds like u might have one as well)

So you go to the casino pay craps (however long u please) and if you lose $100 you pay me $100

if you win $100 i pay you $100

Technically just double your wins or double your losses, - in a sense its like adding an extra odds bet, it has no expected value what so ever.


this way would be way more effective and i would take it for as much money as you have since you are playing a negative EV game...meaning i would win money long run. of course on any given day you could win or lose, but long run you will lose and will be paying more more money than I would be paying you.


This would all have to be done in person obviously, i dont trust videos of "only winning sessions".

I would like to do this over a couple hundred times as well. (to rule out any variance of luck or bad luck). Im sure 90% of people in this thread/site would back my bankroll on this bet as well (if not just take the bet themselves)

Thoughts?

Quote: boymimbo

The Iron Cross method that nezbit describes has a HA of 1.016% per roll. On a 41 unit bet, the expected loss per roll is .4167 units.

A 41 unit pass line bet has an expected loss per RESOLUTION of .57974 units. However, the per roll loss is .57974/3.3758 or .2440 units PER ROLL.

It doesn't matter that the pass line bet is a contract bet. The only way to compare iron cross to any other method is to compare it on a roll by roll basis. If an Iron Cross player vs PL brings $1025 to the table and bets $205/bet, their money will be gone in 492 rolls where as the pass line's money will last 840 rolls.

To state that Iron Cross is better than P/L is just ridiculous.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think that what bothers a bunch of people is the complete arrogance of Ahigh on this forum in general (note the qualifier). Perhaps it's because the membership of this forum goads him into this attitude, but as I said before, you can choose what you react to.

Ahigh clearly believes that he is a better crap player than most ordinary folk and has started this thread (and others) to prove it. He clearly believes that he has an advantage due to bias or influence. He happily puts pictures of him depositing money and cashing out chips and generally flaunting his wealth (be it bitcoin, crap, mortgages, etc).

This is why he has become a lightning rod for criticism. Deserved?

In my opinion, it will only be a matter of time before Ahigh takes $4K to a crap table or series of crap table and loses it all. He plays a martingale system with the goal of winning a little bit of money which works more often with the larger bankroll. This allows you to have a pile of winning sessions before a losing session brings it ALL crashing down. And I doubt we'll read about it that or any other failure of his here.

And this is the thing about life. Most of us are old enough to experience the ups and downs of life, be it winning sessions or losing sessions at a casino, job promotions or losses, love, arguments, kids, achievement and failures. We all have them. We tend to write about our positive experiences because we want people to look at us in our best light. AZ won't tell about the time he accidentedly endorsed a Democrat, for example. EvenBob doesn't advertise his day-to-day gaffes, and neither really do I.

The people I generally like most are the people who are honest about their life. The Wizard for example, for telling us about the mistakes he made with his wife's passport and his penalty of having to buy his wife a car... Face's crap with his son. Evenbob's escapades about his sister's thanksgiving cooking... and so on.

Except for Ahigh. Everyone who disagrees with him is wrong, including the dealers and the math experts. And that gets tired after awhile.

And maybe we are all wrong. There is a camp that believe the craps can be beaten. Perhaps taking $4k to a crap table to win $50 is the way to go. Perhaps getting upset at every crap dealer who disagrees with you or cops a bit of negative attitude is the right thing to do.

good post boymimbo

I tried to stick with bet resolved for the fact that if you roll and hit a blank number and no money exchanges hands then its pointless. My whole point was that PL with not odds is a worse bet than iron cross. Bet resolved it most certainly looks like it is.

Im not into sitting at the casino rolling 10 rolls in a row with a single passline bet no odds and watching my money disappear when nothing happens - technically when you roll a blank you still lose .46% ( according to Ahigh... think i figured that correct as well from my math )

My point was that if you "truly" can avoid the 7 (which in theory i believe it) then I vote for iron cross. You should be getting paid for every "talented throw" you make correct? You would feel pretty dumb if you rolled 47 times in a row and only hit 8 points...8 wins? Id rather have 47 wins.

I know for a fact that I am a skilled shooter. I have proven. Some on this site have witnessed. I have rolled in excess of 13 timesin a row a seven out . I have been known to make some folks to the tune of 1600.00 on the dont. While I as well was on the dont with them. They stopped betting and I continued and the poor B****** pulled the money back out of his pocket after my please for him not to and ...... I went down. Took him all the way back to Zerooooooo . I have been known to have the skill to roll craps several times in a row during a roll. Known to roll in excess of hour and 45 I would say that is some skill. It was merily for recreation. Practice makes perfect.

Im not into sitting at the casino rolling 10 rolls in a row with a single passline bet no odds and watching my money disappear when nothing happens - technically when you roll a blank you still lose .46% ( according to Ahigh... think i figured that correct as well from my math )

I somehow believe that you are totally correct on this.

Quote: MrV

Quote: EvenBob

You love the attention apparently.

There is nothing "apparent" about Aaron's need, his hunger, his desire for our undivided attention.

My favorite Ahigh line is from a while back when he claimed that he gets "recognized" when he visits casinos that he's never been to before. Like he's some sort of celebrity. :D

Quote: Beethoven9th

My favorite Ahigh line is from a while back when he claimed that he gets "recognized" when he visits casinos that he's never been to before. Like he's some sort of celebrity. :D

I think the casinos do in fact share the photos(and perhaps other details like names) with others in cases where a guy/girl always win.

Quote: NokTang

I think the casinos do in fact share the photos(and perhaps other details like names) with others in cases where a guy/girl always win.

What does this have to do with Ahigh being recognized?

Quote: Beethoven9th

What does this have to do with Ahigh being recognized?

In case you aren't being sarcastic, my readings and enjoyment of his photos indicate to me he's a consistent winner. A day or three ago was the first time I recall him losing during a session and leaving a loser. While the amounts weren't not huge, still, casino's notice, it's their job to.

Quote: NokTang

In case you aren't being sarcastic, my readings and enjoyment of his photos indicate to me he's a consistent winner. A day or three ago was the first time I recall him losing during a session and leaving a loser. While the amounts weren't not huge, still, casino's notice, it's their job to.

Silly me. Casinos all over Vegas must be shaking in their shoes!