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Ahigh
Ahigh
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May 7th, 2013 at 9:02:06 PM permalink
I'm just shy of being a lifetime winner at craps, and I up multiple thousands of dollars on crapless craps alone in the last couple of weeks.



I had a great roll right after I met with Pai Gow Dan and snapped this photo before I left. I pressed odds and took it all down before rolling the seven losing 6 line bets with no odds.

I had come bets on every number when I sevened out and had several repeaters but no win on the fire.

I gave my wife $500 over the weekend for shopping, but I'm up about $1000 for the last couple days. Trying to be conservative in my bet sizes, but I have some serious black chip action at Binions over the weekend.
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JW17
JW17
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May 7th, 2013 at 9:14:21 PM permalink
Very, very nice! Congrats!
sodawater
sodawater
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May 7th, 2013 at 10:01:20 PM permalink
ahigh, may i ask what is the rationale for playing crapless craps instead of the normal game? Even if you do magically have the ability to win at dice, wouldn't you be a lot better off playing a game with a lower house edge?
Ahigh
Ahigh
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May 7th, 2013 at 10:09:45 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

ahigh, may i ask what is the rationale for playing crapsless craps instead of the normal game? Even if you do magically have the ability to win at dice, wouldn't you be a lot better off playing a game with a lower house edge?



I can get a good edge with a sufficiently large enough bankroll. All the crapless tables I play at are 10x tables.

Here's where I detail the edge per roll for every variety of craps and crapless working the comeout for all the various possible number of come bets.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13842-expected-loss-per-hour/4/#post239795

Crapless with single odds has a good edge per roll and if I can roll any non-seven and repeat it, I win. I have been transitioning from placing the 6 and 8 and come bets with no odds and a free odds bet on the 6 and 8 on regular tables.

When I play a regular table and I roll aces three times in a row, it just pisses me off. On crapless, any non-seven is fine and I just bet odds and try to do it again. It requires less thinking is another short answer.

I am currently only betting single odds, and I have had multiple sessions where I win $500 in a few short minutes and leave.

I will slowly graduate to double odds and higher, but there is tons of room for growth with my bankroll in crapless, and at 10x odds, it's a reasonable deal even if I can't currently afford it with my bankroll. I will stick with single odds until I get to a bigger bankroll.

I may change my tune if I have a losing session at crapless, but so far as close as I have come is winning from hardway parlays instead of crapless action.

On that crapless table I have also had really good luck rolling hard ways back to back. IE: call it luck or whatever you want, but when I roll there, it has gone really well.

Another thing that I like about the crapless table is that it is almost ALWAYS empty. I will play $10 tables to get an empty table too. The Wizard asked me a similar question of why play a game that costs more? You get what you pay for is maybe the short answer. I need a hurdle that I can overcome, but I do also like a challenge, and I do like to show off, and I do like an empty table.

I have enjoyed the attention I've received for my long rolls at crapless too. I rolled the hard six three times with no easy followed by a hard 8 three times with no easy all withing 10 rolls over there at that table. Not too far off from the 9 hardways in ten throws I have on video. I also like the dealers there.
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sodawater
sodawater
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May 7th, 2013 at 10:21:51 PM permalink
Crapless craps with single odds has a combined house edge of 3 percent for every pass line and come bet. see: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/5/#craplesscraps

Three percent on every flat bet is a hell of a lot to buck when you're playing, especially if, as you describe, you are making a new come bet every roll, as well. If you're betting a black chip each time with $100 odds, that's a $5.88 expected loss every time you roll. That adds up quick.

Ten times odds makes crapless craps a lot more palatable, but you're only playing 1x odds right now.

If you were to switch to regular craps and play the exact same strategy, assuming 1 black chip each time on the pass/come, and $100 odds each time, you would save $4.40 EVERY SINGLE ROLL. That is huge and that adds up to a lot of TGI Friday's entrees.

By the way, "edge per roll" has no useful meaning when referring to pass and come bets, since you are not free to take them down. The only useful time to talk about "edge per roll" is for a bet like a hard way, with the intention of taking it down no matter what after x rolls, which lowers the house edge on the bet.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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May 7th, 2013 at 10:25:43 PM permalink
I will do more analysis to explain, but all the current analysis is, IMO neglecting the fact that the pass line bet lasts longer. My theoretical edge exist in the domain of per roll and that's all that I care about. Period. I don't care about per bet resolved, I care about per roll.
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sodawater
sodawater
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May 7th, 2013 at 10:27:59 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

My theoretical edge exist in the domain of per roll and that's all that I care about. Period. I don't care about per bet resolved, I care about per roll.



"Per roll" has no meaning whatsoever on pass and come bets. They are contract bets and the player is not free to call them down.
sodawater
sodawater
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May 7th, 2013 at 10:34:49 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

all the current analysis is, IMO neglecting the fact that the pass line bet lasts longer.



Are you serious? The current analysis is neglecting nothing.

A pass line or come bet in craps has a house edge of 1.40 percent.

A pass line or come bet in crapless craps has a house edge of 5.40 percent.

If you can't see how big a difference that is, there really is no hope for you as a gambler, even recreationally. There is a reason those $10 crapless tables are always empty.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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May 8th, 2013 at 12:26:57 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Are you serious? The current analysis is neglecting nothing.

A pass line or come bet in craps has a house edge of 1.40 percent.

A pass line or come bet in crapless craps has a house edge of 5.40 percent.

If you can't see how big a difference that is, there really is no hope for you as a gambler, even recreationally. There is a reason those $10 crapless tables are always empty.



No there is a huge difference in the edge for a random toss. And the way that I look at it is that as long as I keep winning at this particular table and I never chase my losses (I have yet to increase my bets beyond single odds to chase losses and have only slid back $100 to $200 at at time) I will persist.

Here's the output of my script comparing edge per roll for craps and crapless for various RSR's:

Quote: RSR 6.25



CRAPS OFF ON THE COMEOUT
1 1x 0.398% 2x 0.432% 3x 0.450% 4x 0.462% 5x 0.469% 10x 0.488% 20x 0.499% 100x 0.510%
2 1x 0.370% 2x 0.403% 3x 0.422% 4x 0.434% 5x 0.442% 10x 0.462% 20x 0.474% 100x 0.485%
3 1x 0.353% 2x 0.386% 3x 0.405% 4x 0.417% 5x 0.426% 10x 0.446% 20x 0.458% 100x 0.470%
4 1x 0.339% 2x 0.373% 3x 0.392% 4x 0.404% 5x 0.412% 10x 0.433% 20x 0.446% 100x 0.458%
5 1x 0.333% 2x 0.366% 3x 0.385% 4x 0.398% 5x 0.406% 10x 0.427% 20x 0.440% 100x 0.452%
6 1x 0.331% 2x 0.364% 3x 0.383% 4x 0.395% 5x 0.404% 10x 0.425% 20x 0.438% 100x 0.450%
7 1x 0.330% 2x 0.363% 3x 0.382% 4x 0.395% 5x 0.404% 10x 0.425% 20x 0.438% 100x 0.450%

CRAPS WORKING THE COMEOUT
1 1x 0.398% 2x 0.432% 3x 0.450% 4x 0.462% 5x 0.469% 10x 0.488% 20x 0.499% 100x 0.510%
2 1x 0.388% 2x 0.422% 3x 0.440% 4x 0.452% 5x 0.460% 10x 0.479% 20x 0.490% 100x 0.501%
3 1x 0.378% 2x 0.412% 3x 0.430% 4x 0.442% 5x 0.450% 10x 0.470% 20x 0.481% 100x 0.492%
4 1x 0.368% 2x 0.402% 3x 0.420% 4x 0.432% 5x 0.441% 10x 0.460% 20x 0.472% 100x 0.483%
5 1x 0.363% 2x 0.396% 3x 0.415% 4x 0.427% 5x 0.435% 10x 0.455% 20x 0.467% 100x 0.478%
6 1x 0.361% 2x 0.394% 3x 0.413% 4x 0.425% 5x 0.433% 10x 0.453% 20x 0.465% 100x 0.476%
7 1x 0.360% 2x 0.393% 3x 0.412% 4x 0.424% 5x 0.432% 10x 0.453% 20x 0.465% 100x 0.476%

CRAPLESS OFF ON THE COMEOUT
1 1x -0.170% 2x 0.009% 3x 0.104% 4x 0.164% 5x 0.205% 10x 0.300% 20x 0.357% 100x 0.407%
2 1x -0.198% 2x -0.019% 3x 0.078% 4x 0.139% 5x 0.181% 10x 0.280% 20x 0.340% 100x 0.393%
3 1x -0.213% 2x -0.034% 3x 0.064% 4x 0.126% 5x 0.168% 10x 0.270% 20x 0.330% 100x 0.385%
4 1x -0.224% 2x -0.046% 3x 0.053% 4x 0.115% 5x 0.159% 10x 0.261% 20x 0.323% 100x 0.379%
5 1x -0.233% 2x -0.054% 3x 0.045% 4x 0.108% 5x 0.152% 10x 0.256% 20x 0.318% 100x 0.375%
6 1x -0.240% 2x -0.061% 3x 0.038% 4x 0.102% 5x 0.146% 10x 0.250% 20x 0.314% 100x 0.372%
7 1x -0.243% 2x -0.064% 3x 0.035% 4x 0.099% 5x 0.143% 10x 0.248% 20x 0.312% 100x 0.370%
8 1x -0.244% 2x -0.066% 3x 0.034% 4x 0.097% 5x 0.141% 10x 0.247% 20x 0.311% 100x 0.369%
9 1x -0.245% 2x -0.066% 3x 0.033% 4x 0.097% 5x 0.141% 10x 0.247% 20x 0.311% 100x 0.369%
10 1x -0.245% 2x -0.066% 3x 0.033% 4x 0.097% 5x 0.141% 10x 0.247% 20x 0.311% 100x 0.369%
11 1x -0.245% 2x -0.066% 3x 0.033% 4x 0.097% 5x 0.141% 10x 0.247% 20x 0.311% 100x 0.369%

CRAPLESS WORKING THE COMEOUT
1 1x -0.170% 2x 0.009% 3x 0.104% 4x 0.164% 5x 0.205% 10x 0.300% 20x 0.357% 100x 0.407%
2 1x -0.179% 2x 0.000% 3x 0.096% 4x 0.156% 5x 0.197% 10x 0.294% 20x 0.351% 100x 0.403%
3 1x -0.187% 2x -0.008% 3x 0.089% 4x 0.149% 5x 0.191% 10x 0.288% 20x 0.347% 100x 0.399%
4 1x -0.194% 2x -0.015% 3x 0.082% 4x 0.143% 5x 0.185% 10x 0.283% 20x 0.342% 100x 0.395%
5 1x -0.200% 2x -0.021% 3x 0.076% 4x 0.137% 5x 0.179% 10x 0.279% 20x 0.338% 100x 0.392%
6 1x -0.206% 2x -0.027% 3x 0.071% 4x 0.132% 5x 0.175% 10x 0.275% 20x 0.335% 100x 0.389%
7 1x -0.208% 2x -0.029% 3x 0.068% 4x 0.130% 5x 0.172% 10x 0.273% 20x 0.333% 100x 0.388%
8 1x -0.209% 2x -0.031% 3x 0.067% 4x 0.129% 5x 0.172% 10x 0.272% 20x 0.333% 100x 0.387%
9 1x -0.210% 2x -0.031% 3x 0.067% 4x 0.129% 5x 0.171% 10x 0.272% 20x 0.332% 100x 0.387%
10 1x -0.210% 2x -0.031% 3x 0.067% 4x 0.129% 5x 0.171% 10x 0.272% 20x 0.332% 100x 0.387%
11 1x -0.210% 2x -0.031% 3x 0.067% 4x 0.129% 5x 0.171% 10x 0.272% 20x 0.332% 100x 0.387%

Quote: RSR 6.45



CRAPS OFF ON THE COMEOUT
1 1x 0.907% 2x 0.909% 3x 0.909% 4x 0.910% 5x 0.910% 10x 0.911% 20x 0.911% 100x 0.912%
2 1x 0.864% 2x 0.865% 3x 0.866% 4x 0.866% 5x 0.866% 10x 0.867% 20x 0.868% 100x 0.868%
3 1x 0.837% 2x 0.838% 3x 0.839% 4x 0.840% 5x 0.840% 10x 0.841% 20x 0.841% 100x 0.842%
4 1x 0.818% 2x 0.819% 3x 0.820% 4x 0.820% 5x 0.820% 10x 0.821% 20x 0.822% 100x 0.822%
5 1x 0.806% 2x 0.807% 3x 0.808% 4x 0.808% 5x 0.809% 10x 0.810% 20x 0.810% 100x 0.811%
6 1x 0.802% 2x 0.803% 3x 0.804% 4x 0.804% 5x 0.804% 10x 0.805% 20x 0.806% 100x 0.806%
7 1x 0.801% 2x 0.802% 3x 0.803% 4x 0.803% 5x 0.804% 10x 0.805% 20x 0.805% 100x 0.806%

CRAPS WORKING THE COMEOUT
1 1x 0.907% 2x 0.909% 3x 0.909% 4x 0.910% 5x 0.910% 10x 0.911% 20x 0.911% 100x 0.912%
2 1x 0.892% 2x 0.893% 3x 0.894% 4x 0.894% 5x 0.895% 10x 0.895% 20x 0.896% 100x 0.896%
3 1x 0.876% 2x 0.878% 3x 0.878% 4x 0.879% 5x 0.879% 10x 0.880% 20x 0.880% 100x 0.881%
4 1x 0.862% 2x 0.864% 3x 0.865% 4x 0.865% 5x 0.865% 10x 0.866% 20x 0.867% 100x 0.867%
5 1x 0.853% 2x 0.854% 3x 0.855% 4x 0.856% 5x 0.856% 10x 0.857% 20x 0.857% 100x 0.858%
6 1x 0.849% 2x 0.850% 3x 0.851% 4x 0.852% 5x 0.852% 10x 0.853% 20x 0.853% 100x 0.854%
7 1x 0.848% 2x 0.850% 3x 0.851% 4x 0.851% 5x 0.851% 10x 0.852% 20x 0.853% 100x 0.853%

CRAPLESS OFF ON THE COMEOUT
1 1x 0.271% 2x 0.416% 3x 0.494% 4x 0.542% 5x 0.575% 10x 0.652% 20x 0.698% 100x 0.739%
2 1x 0.236% 2x 0.381% 3x 0.460% 4x 0.509% 5x 0.543% 10x 0.624% 20x 0.671% 100x 0.714%
3 1x 0.216% 2x 0.362% 3x 0.441% 4x 0.491% 5x 0.526% 10x 0.608% 20x 0.657% 100x 0.701%
4 1x 0.201% 2x 0.346% 3x 0.426% 4x 0.477% 5x 0.512% 10x 0.595% 20x 0.645% 100x 0.691%
5 1x 0.190% 2x 0.335% 3x 0.415% 4x 0.466% 5x 0.502% 10x 0.586% 20x 0.637% 100x 0.683%
6 1x 0.181% 2x 0.326% 3x 0.407% 4x 0.458% 5x 0.494% 10x 0.579% 20x 0.630% 100x 0.677%
7 1x 0.177% 2x 0.322% 3x 0.403% 4x 0.454% 5x 0.490% 10x 0.575% 20x 0.627% 100x 0.674%
8 1x 0.175% 2x 0.320% 3x 0.400% 4x 0.452% 5x 0.488% 10x 0.573% 20x 0.625% 100x 0.672%
9 1x 0.174% 2x 0.319% 3x 0.400% 4x 0.451% 5x 0.487% 10x 0.573% 20x 0.625% 100x 0.672%
10 1x 0.174% 2x 0.319% 3x 0.400% 4x 0.451% 5x 0.487% 10x 0.573% 20x 0.624% 100x 0.672%
11 1x 0.174% 2x 0.319% 3x 0.400% 4x 0.451% 5x 0.487% 10x 0.573% 20x 0.624% 100x 0.672%

CRAPLESS WORKING THE COMEOUT
1 1x 0.271% 2x 0.416% 3x 0.494% 4x 0.542% 5x 0.575% 10x 0.652% 20x 0.698% 100x 0.739%
2 1x 0.261% 2x 0.406% 3x 0.484% 4x 0.533% 5x 0.566% 10x 0.644% 20x 0.690% 100x 0.732%
3 1x 0.252% 2x 0.397% 3x 0.475% 4x 0.524% 5x 0.557% 10x 0.636% 20x 0.683% 100x 0.725%
4 1x 0.242% 2x 0.387% 3x 0.466% 4x 0.515% 5x 0.549% 10x 0.629% 20x 0.676% 100x 0.719%
5 1x 0.234% 2x 0.379% 3x 0.458% 4x 0.508% 5x 0.542% 10x 0.622% 20x 0.670% 100x 0.713%
6 1x 0.228% 2x 0.373% 3x 0.452% 4x 0.502% 5x 0.536% 10x 0.617% 20x 0.665% 100x 0.709%
7 1x 0.224% 2x 0.369% 3x 0.448% 4x 0.498% 5x 0.533% 10x 0.614% 20x 0.662% 100x 0.706%
8 1x 0.222% 2x 0.367% 3x 0.447% 4x 0.497% 5x 0.531% 10x 0.612% 20x 0.661% 100x 0.705%
9 1x 0.222% 2x 0.367% 3x 0.446% 4x 0.496% 5x 0.531% 10x 0.612% 20x 0.661% 100x 0.705%
10 1x 0.222% 2x 0.367% 3x 0.446% 4x 0.496% 5x 0.530% 10x 0.612% 20x 0.661% 100x 0.705%
11 1x 0.222% 2x 0.367% 3x 0.446% 4x 0.496% 5x 0.530% 10x 0.612% 20x 0.661% 100x 0.705%

Quote: RSR 7.00



CRAPS OFF ON THE COMEOUT
1 1x 2.258% 2x 2.169% 3x 2.120% 4x 2.090% 5x 2.069% 10x 2.019% 20x 1.990% 100x 1.963%
2 1x 2.173% 2x 2.084% 3x 2.034% 4x 2.002% 5x 1.981% 10x 1.928% 20x 1.896% 100x 1.868%
3 1x 2.120% 2x 2.031% 3x 1.981% 4x 1.948% 5x 1.926% 10x 1.872% 20x 1.839% 100x 1.809%
4 1x 2.082% 2x 1.993% 3x 1.942% 4x 1.910% 5x 1.887% 10x 1.831% 20x 1.797% 100x 1.766%
5 1x 2.059% 2x 1.971% 3x 1.920% 4x 1.887% 5x 1.864% 10x 1.808% 20x 1.773% 100x 1.741%
6 1x 2.051% 2x 1.963% 3x 1.912% 4x 1.879% 5x 1.856% 10x 1.799% 20x 1.764% 100x 1.732%
7 1x 2.050% 2x 1.961% 3x 1.910% 4x 1.877% 5x 1.854% 10x 1.797% 20x 1.763% 100x 1.730%

CRAPS WORKING THE COMEOUT
1 1x 2.258% 2x 2.169% 3x 2.120% 4x 2.090% 5x 2.069% 10x 2.019% 20x 1.990% 100x 1.963%
2 1x 2.228% 2x 2.139% 3x 2.090% 4x 2.059% 5x 2.038% 10x 1.987% 20x 1.957% 100x 1.930%
3 1x 2.196% 2x 2.107% 3x 2.058% 4x 2.027% 5x 2.005% 10x 1.953% 20x 1.922% 100x 1.894%
4 1x 2.171% 2x 2.081% 3x 2.032% 4x 2.000% 5x 1.978% 10x 1.926% 20x 1.894% 100x 1.865%
5 1x 2.153% 2x 2.064% 3x 2.014% 4x 1.982% 5x 1.960% 10x 1.907% 20x 1.875% 100x 1.845%
6 1x 2.146% 2x 2.056% 3x 2.007% 4x 1.975% 5x 1.952% 10x 1.899% 20x 1.867% 100x 1.837%
7 1x 2.144% 2x 2.055% 3x 2.005% 4x 1.973% 5x 1.951% 10x 1.898% 20x 1.865% 100x 1.836%

CRAPLESS OFF ON THE COMEOUT
1 1x 1.451% 2x 1.502% 3x 1.529% 4x 1.546% 5x 1.557% 10x 1.584% 20x 1.600% 100x 1.614%
2 1x 1.394% 2x 1.445% 3x 1.472% 4x 1.490% 5x 1.502% 10x 1.529% 20x 1.546% 100x 1.561%
3 1x 1.363% 2x 1.414% 3x 1.442% 4x 1.459% 5x 1.472% 10x 1.500% 20x 1.517% 100x 1.532%
4 1x 1.337% 2x 1.388% 3x 1.416% 4x 1.433% 5x 1.446% 10x 1.475% 20x 1.492% 100x 1.508%
5 1x 1.317% 2x 1.368% 3x 1.396% 4x 1.414% 5x 1.426% 10x 1.456% 20x 1.473% 100x 1.490%
6 1x 1.305% 2x 1.355% 3x 1.384% 4x 1.402% 5x 1.414% 10x 1.444% 20x 1.462% 100x 1.478%
7 1x 1.297% 2x 1.348% 3x 1.377% 4x 1.395% 5x 1.407% 10x 1.437% 20x 1.455% 100x 1.471%
8 1x 1.294% 2x 1.345% 3x 1.373% 4x 1.391% 5x 1.404% 10x 1.434% 20x 1.452% 100x 1.468%
9 1x 1.293% 2x 1.344% 3x 1.372% 4x 1.390% 5x 1.403% 10x 1.433% 20x 1.451% 100x 1.467%
10 1x 1.293% 2x 1.344% 3x 1.372% 4x 1.390% 5x 1.403% 10x 1.433% 20x 1.451% 100x 1.467%
11 1x 1.293% 2x 1.344% 3x 1.372% 4x 1.390% 5x 1.403% 10x 1.433% 20x 1.451% 100x 1.467%

CRAPLESS WORKING THE COMEOUT
1 1x 1.451% 2x 1.502% 3x 1.529% 4x 1.546% 5x 1.557% 10x 1.584% 20x 1.600% 100x 1.614%
2 1x 1.433% 2x 1.484% 3x 1.511% 4x 1.528% 5x 1.540% 10x 1.567% 20x 1.583% 100x 1.597%
3 1x 1.418% 2x 1.469% 3x 1.497% 4x 1.514% 5x 1.525% 10x 1.553% 20x 1.569% 100x 1.584%
4 1x 1.402% 2x 1.453% 3x 1.480% 4x 1.497% 5x 1.509% 10x 1.537% 20x 1.554% 100x 1.568%
5 1x 1.389% 2x 1.440% 3x 1.467% 4x 1.485% 5x 1.497% 10x 1.525% 20x 1.541% 100x 1.556%
6 1x 1.379% 2x 1.430% 3x 1.458% 4x 1.475% 5x 1.487% 10x 1.515% 20x 1.532% 100x 1.547%
7 1x 1.374% 2x 1.425% 3x 1.452% 4x 1.470% 5x 1.482% 10x 1.510% 20x 1.527% 100x 1.542%
8 1x 1.371% 2x 1.422% 3x 1.449% 4x 1.467% 5x 1.479% 10x 1.507% 20x 1.524% 100x 1.539%
9 1x 1.370% 2x 1.421% 3x 1.449% 4x 1.466% 5x 1.478% 10x 1.506% 20x 1.523% 100x 1.539%
10 1x 1.370% 2x 1.421% 3x 1.448% 4x 1.466% 5x 1.478% 10x 1.506% 20x 1.523% 100x 1.539%
11 1x 1.370% 2x 1.421% 3x 1.448% 4x 1.466% 5x 1.478% 10x 1.506% 20x 1.523% 100x 1.538%



I'll agree with you that if I were only interested in the money, the challenge wouldn't be as interesting. There aren't too many people rolling all that great over there at the Strat and it's fun to beat that game!

Also, buying the 2, 3, 11, and 12 with commission on the win and doing very targeted shots can work great too. Those bets are super low edge. Of course that's the Plaza or Las Vegas Club, not the Stratosphere.
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Paigowdan
Paigowdan
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May 8th, 2013 at 12:33:10 AM permalink
After dinner with Aaron, I went home to the Mrs.
When leaving, I walked with Aaron to the front parking area to his car, but he changed his mind, and went back in to throw some more. I walked back in with him to the pit area, and then I went alone to the other parking lot. I was "semi-surprised" he wanted to play some more.

When we played, we played small and lost a little. Had dinner, and played a few hands of EZ Pai Gow, and I went home. He ended up staying. And yes, the above photo is of a Fiesta/Stations cage clerk.

If he did go back and win, the dice crew that he played and won with is the dice crew I dealt along side of for years. It may be true....
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
Ahigh
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May 8th, 2013 at 12:45:28 AM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

After dinner with Aaron, I went home to the Mrs.
When leaving, I walked with Aaron to the front parking area to his car, but he changed his mind, and went back in to throw some more. I walked back in with him to the pit area, and then I went alone to the other parking lot. I was "semi-surprised" he wanted to play some more.

When we played, we played small and lost a little. Had dinner, and played a few hands of EZ Pai Gow, and I went home. He ended up staying. And yes, the above photo is of a Fiesta/Stations cage clerk.

If he did go back and win, the dice crew that he played and won with is the dice crew I dealt along side of for years. It may be true....



I lost about $80 while Dan was there. I made the $25 profit by the time we went to dinner in the short time he was playing Pai Gow Poker.

Dan, you know the crew that was there. I only won a couple hundred bucks tonight, but ask them how long the roll was and how much total I risked. I risked very little money and won a couple hundred bucks loading every every single number and pressing into the odds until I had max odds on nearly every number. I then took everything down, and had one more roll (an eight) before I sevened out with 6 line bets and no odds (no winning rolls after I came down). Rick was dealing to me, the and Russian guy was on stick. The Russian guy was thanking me for tipping him so well saying "if everybody tipped like you we would be rich." I also noticed that you tipped very well and applaud you for that. Those guys are great guys at the Fiesta.

I played for a total of about fifteen minutes and I only had one roll. I think I went from $3,300 to $3505. Here's the $3,325 I had last night at the Golden Nugget.



I went from $3325 to $3350, gave you $40 for dinner, kept ten in my wallet, and went from $3300 to $3505 for anybody who wants the details. Net win of $230 for the trip. I would be at $4,000 if not for the $500 I gave to Kelly for shopping this weekend, and I shared the level I was at ($3000 to $3200 to $3600) earlier this week after wins at various places.

But for anyone thinking this was one big win at Fiesta, it wasn't. I've been accumulating. It was $2017 about 9 days ago and would be about $5000 now except for lots of shopping going on. So about $3,000 in profit in ten days for those who are curious about recent details. But the thing that I'm most excited about is that I am right at the cusp of lifetime wins if I don't start betting too big and can continue to be happy with $200 to $600 wins per trip and not go on tilt.

I also deposited a much bigger chunk into my home equity and this is my reduced bankroll. I did have a five figure bankroll but I didn't trust myself to not lose that, so I scaled back to $2,000 cash and put the rest in the home equity and house payments.

I expect to make more house payments in the next few days to keep myself from doing anything stupid with this money at the table.
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nezbit
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May 8th, 2013 at 12:53:54 AM permalink
if you have the edge why the F($* would you ever quit?


never even heard of crapless craps, but sounds like just more juice the house takes.


start learning the iron cross
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May 8th, 2013 at 1:11:22 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

start learning the iron cross



Sorry, only 1.00% per roll edge and lower for my bets. The only exception is a hardway.

Iron Cross is 1.136% per roll. Single odds crapless is 0.729%.

I like smaller hurdles. Crapless is near the limit of what I will approach, and as you can see from the responses on this thread, most people consider crapless to be a gimmick. But you can get more working odds bets and get paid on every single roll when you have a nice long roll. Sometimes I will place the 6 and 8 before I hit them the first time in crapless to jump start the process of getting paid. But at Strat the buys are vig up front, so no 4 or 10 until I take odds.

I get every single number loaded up in crapless and I get some repeaters. If I feel like I have done well enough I take everything down and relax and shoot trying to hit my come bets until I feel like I have the confidence to start over.

I work everything every roll in crapless and always have. I'm not trying to sell crapless, though. Part of what I like about it is that nobody else here generally plays it.
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nezbit
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May 8th, 2013 at 1:30:02 AM permalink
lets just look at the per throw

3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 pay $35
2 pays $70
12 pays $105

added up that equals

3/11 - 4 combos ($35*4) = $140
4/10 - 6 combos ($35*6) = $210
5/9 - 8 combos ($35*8) = $280
6/8 - 10 combos ($35*10) =$350
2 - 1 combo ($70*1) = $70
12 - 1 combo ($105*1) = $105

this is a grand total of $1155

7 - 6 combos (-$205*6) = $1230


$1155/36 = $32.08333
$1230/36 = -$34.16667

$-2.08333 per throw (sorry my math in above post was off, i divided by 30 above instead of 36)

can also find this number by $1155-$1230 = -$75, -$75/36 outcomes = -$2.08333

since we have $205 wagered on every roll and can expect to lose $2.08333 the expected value per throw is

-$2.08333/$205 = -1.01626%



i got 1.01626% edge???? care to share how u got your number?
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May 8th, 2013 at 1:57:52 AM permalink
$5 pass line
wins 8/36 x $5 = $1.11 (22.2%)
losses 4/36 x -$5 = -$0.56 (11.1%)
point 24/36 (66.7%)

4 - 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.42 (8.4%) house edge
5 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.28 (5.6%)
6 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.14 (2.8%)
8 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.14 (2.8%)
9 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.28 (5.6%)
10- 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.42 (8.4%)



stuck here now how do we turn this into overall house percentage?

weighted average?

.42 x 6outs + .28 x 8outs + .14 x 10 outs = 6.16 / 24 = -$.25667

now...

22.2% x $1.11 = .24642
11.1% x -$0.56 = -0.06216

.24642 + (-.06216) = .18426

-$0.25667 + .18426 = -$0.07241 or -$0.7

-0.07241 / $5 = -1.4482%
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May 8th, 2013 at 2:21:52 AM permalink
-$2.08333/$205 = -1.01626% iron cross
-0.07241 / $5 = -1.4482% pass line bet


hmmmm....


we can break out single and double and triple odds if you want to see how many we got to go to get under iron cross.
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May 8th, 2013 at 2:51:09 AM permalink
$5 pass line
wins 8/36 x $5 = $1.11 (22.2%)
losses 4/36 x -$5 = -$0.56 (11.1%)
point 24/36 (66.7%)
10xodds
4 - 3 wins / 6 losses ((3/36 x $5) + (3/36 x $100)) - 6/36 x -$55 = -$0.416667
5 - 4 wins / 6 losses ((4/36 x $5) + (4/36 x $75)) - 6/36 x -$55 = -$0.27778
6 - 5 wins / 6 losses ((5/36 x $5) + (5/36 x $60)) - 6/36 x -$55 = -$0.138889
8 - 5 wins / 6 losses ((5/36 x $5) + (5/36 x $60)) - 6/36 x -$55 = -$0.138889
9 - 4 wins / 6 losses ((4/36 x $5) + (4/36 x $75)) - 6/36 x -$55 = -$0.27778
4 - 3 wins / 6 losses ((3/36 x $5) + (3/36 x $100)) - 6/36 x -$55 = -$0.416667
expected value stays the same

.42 x 6outs + .28 x 8outs + .14 x 10 outs = 6.16 / 24 = -$.25667

now...

22.2% x $1.11 = .24642
11.1% x -$0.56 = -0.06216

.24642 + (-.06216) = .18426

-$0.25667 + .18426 = -$0.07241 or -$0.7

-0.07241 / ($5+$50odds) = -0.13165% house edge
nezbit
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May 8th, 2013 at 3:10:24 AM permalink
-$2.08333/$205 = -1.01626% iron cross
-0.07241 / $5 = -1.4482% pass line bet
-0.07241 / $5 = -0.13165% 10x odds pass line


well conclusion that iron cross is a tad better than just a str8 up pass line bet, you actually need around $2.12 odds behind $5 passline bet to make the percentage with iron cross equal.



What i see with this i your expected value when you bet $5 is going to stay the same. In a sense all you are doing when you up your odds is upping your swings. So unless you have a size-able bankroll this is essentially doing you no good at all. especially fighting over cents betting $5 or $50


here is my reason for liking iron cross. you win or lose money every single roll.

betting pass line bets you can roll numerous times and not make a dime. If you do in fact "think" you have an edge over the house, however small it may be, you want to be making money right? If you are hitting number after number with superb dice control then you should be getting paid for it. take the very small edge you gain and zero expected value by placing odds and try out the iron cross.

i mean if you are beating the game just betting pass line then you should be able to beat it betting the iron cross. If your edge is less than the difference between the iron cross and your pass line bet then i truly do think your are on a cloud and just like puffing smoke, because i cant buy into it. But if this is the case and you dont want to give up a .2%... point 2 percent. then you must be betting millions of dollars on the table to even make a difference.

.2 percent on
$10 is 2 cents
$100 is 20 cents
$1000 is $2
$10,000 is $20
$100,000 is $200
$1,000,000 is $2000

i would love to see where you are at after you have wagered $1,000,000, if its +$2000 then hey keep that .2%, keep spending thousands of hours to make pennies per hour.

takes 4879 iron cross rolls betting $205 a roll to clear $1,000,000
takes 488 iron cross rolls betting $2050 a roll to clear $1,000,000
takes 49 iron cross rolls betting $20500 a roll to clear $1,000,000

not sure how many rolls it takes you betting what you bet on the pass line and come bet, but i can imagine at your percentages you are going to play for decades and not make much money at all.
Ahigh
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May 8th, 2013 at 8:04:04 PM permalink
Quote: FAQ

Comparing apples to apples, the house edge is a weighted average of the house edge on the field, 5, 6, and 8, on a per-roll basis, or (5/22)×2.778% + (5/22)×1.111% + (6/22)×0.463% + (6/22)×0.463% = 1.136%.



https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/betting-systems

The pass line is 0.42% edge per roll. So iron cross costs 2.7x as much on a percentage basis. When you consider the iron cross is 22/5 or 4.4x as much money as the pass line for a minimum execution. So the raw minimum cost on a given craps table is 11x as much as the passline.

In the future, google search is your friend. googling "edge per roll iron cross" is about all you need to figure out what the answer is in the FAQ. But you do have to weight the edges according to the amount on each roll using an edge per roll.

I hope this helps, and I didn't read everything you posted up there, but I think when comparing strategies for looking at taking advantage of a theoretical edge, the edge per roll is the only edge that you should look at.
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May 9th, 2013 at 10:24:57 AM permalink


Here's a shot of my bankroll after going down $1200, back up $1000 at the Plaza, and then down $1500 and back up $1490 at the Las Vegas Club.

Horrible horrible start and a fire-bet winner to get it all back...fire bet winners (no bet I don't bet that .. all pucks no bucks .. for me) once each in two casinos in an under two hours. I lost $210 total between the two trips and got $100 comp at Oscar's steakhouse. A player that I met at the Plaza I had met before at Silverton won $5 on the first fire bet winner, though.

I may get the player I met (who coincidentally lives a block away from me) to make a report on my roll at the Plaza. It was a very long roll. I took all my bets down and continued rolling to make this other player over $1,000 after I got back enough I wanted to relax and take a break. I shoot best with no skin in the game as I am not as stressed and I wanted to make this person's $5 fire bet happen. Only got 4 numbers, though, but all the real money she made was me rolling all boxes with no reds and pressure (across with pressure that this person's strategy).

I was doing 10x max odds on $5 and $10 line bets in this photo. The edge may be the best but that was such a roller coaster ride it was very nearly exhausting.

I went up nearly exact $1000 on the final roll before this photo was taken.



Note the time required to get an empty 10x table to play on in downtown. My play was between 3:00am and 5:00am. You'll notice the arm of some drunk dude that had just walked up and ruined my empty table as I got my comp.

This (sort of) in response to the best edge being in craps versus crapless. I didn't lose much and I had a better edge, but I guess I would have to just say I have better "luck" with crapless. Just sticking with this strategy after being down four figures is demoralizing no matter what you know about the math behind it. I rolled so much crap without getting paid during this session. And maybe it's part of my biased dice research kicking in too. If you're going to get tons of crap, why not bet odds that it repeats?

Also, just a coincidence, but I was working every bet every roll for the best edge and I had SO MANY SEVENS on the comeout. Even though it was a fire bet winner, I got punched in the gut losing all my come bets' odds frequently. Better edge? Yes. Tough to stomache? YES. I switched to off on the comeout and rolled eight eights in a row (getting paid half as frequently as I should have on max odds). It was like the devil was in control!!!
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May 9th, 2013 at 1:04:56 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

It was like the devil was in control!!!



You just know figuring that out about those dice? [g]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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May 9th, 2013 at 1:54:07 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

You just know figuring that out about those dice? [g]



The sequence started with an eight winner call.

Winner 8.
Eight mark it up.
Winner 8.
Eight mark it up.
Winner 8.
Eight mark it up.
Winner 8.
Eight mark it up.
....

This happened after I decided to turn my bets off on the comeout (on the second eight).

The dealers were in absolute shock to see that many eights in a row for wins... I had to laugh. It was like this working the comeout .. loading up every number, seven winner seven on the comeout over and over. I think the Orleans has a bet for this, and it's extremely unlikely to make that many points in that few number of rolls. But points or not, it was the fact that I was missing $60 of $65 in pay four times in 7 rolls that had me lol'ing.

Anyone that wants a witness for this, the stick was a black girl who was really nice, I forget her name actually. Not the Ethiopian black girl though. She was really great on stick and called most of my comeback wins.
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nezbit
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May 13th, 2013 at 9:56:31 AM permalink
A high i showed you all the math. so wtf are you talking about? google what>=? you are obviously the one who needs to buy the clue here.


please explain to me how rolling 15 rolls in a row with just a passline bet is worth it?


my numbers camouflage or what?
nezbit
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May 13th, 2013 at 9:58:41 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

-$2.08333/$205 = -1.01626% iron cross
-0.07241 / $5 = -1.4482% pass line bet


hmmmm....


we can break out single and double and triple odds if you want to see how many we got to go to get under iron cross.




please say something smart...so i can stop facepalming
Ahigh
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May 13th, 2013 at 9:59:46 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

A high i showed you all the math. so wtf are you talking about? google what>=? you are obviously the one who needs to buy the clue here.


please explain to me how rolling 15 rolls in a row with just a passline bet is worth it?


my numbers camouflage or what?



https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/betting-systems/
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nezbit
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May 13th, 2013 at 10:02:04 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

$5 pass line
wins 8/36 x $5 = $1.11 (22.2%)
losses 4/36 x -$5 = -$0.56 (11.1%)
point 24/36 (66.7%)

4 - 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.42 (8.4%) house edge
5 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.28 (5.6%)
6 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.14 (2.8%)
8 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.14 (2.8%)
9 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.28 (5.6%)
10- 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.42 (8.4%)



stuck here now how do we turn this into overall house percentage?

weighted average?

.42 x 6outs + .28 x 8outs + .14 x 10 outs = 6.16 / 24 = -$.25667

now...

22.2% x $1.11 = .24642
11.1% x -$0.56 = -0.06216

.24642 + (-.06216) = .18426

-$0.25667 + .18426 = -$0.07241 or -$0.7

-0.07241 / $5 = -1.4482%




this will refresh your brain of a $5 passline bet (no odds) - odds do not increase EV just make swings larger
Ahigh
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May 13th, 2013 at 10:29:27 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

this will refresh your brain of a $5 passline bet (no odds) - odds do not increase EV just make swings larger



This is VERY much off topic here. But I am not analyzing your answers, just providing you the answers that are in the FAQ.

There is no reason to argue about the edge per roll on the Iron Cross. I don't care about anything besides the weighted edge per roll for anything that I consider.

Your suggestion that I bet the Iron Cross is a bad suggestion. It stops there!

Read the FAQ,

I know you're new here, but you can find plenty of talk about this subject without invading my thread.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/10510-iron-cross-and-hedges/
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nezbit
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May 13th, 2013 at 10:31:01 AM permalink
i took weighted roll into effect. LOOOOOOK AT IT
Ahigh
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May 13th, 2013 at 10:32:46 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

i took weighted roll into effect. LOOOOOOK AT IT



You know that the pass line has an edge per roll of 0.42%, right? Start another thread if you need help, though, alright!
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Ahigh
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May 13th, 2013 at 8:54:51 PM permalink
Progress report... Up $500. I had some difficulties getting from $3,500 to $4,000, and dropped to $2,500 intrasession, but always colored up with more than $3,000 .. but I'm shaking it off...

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sodawater
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May 13th, 2013 at 9:18:53 PM permalink
those are the ugliest and dirtiest $500 chips I have ever seen.
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May 13th, 2013 at 9:28:31 PM permalink
Yeah, I'm not sure why their $500 chips are so dirty. I think it might have something to do with the Bac tables though. I don't see many $500 chips in the rail at the craps table, but I see them more often on the Bac tables.

I won $130 at Mandalay Bay, $90 at Silverton (I used my coupon and did one roll .. bringing everything down after making just a couple of wins), and $175 at Gold Coast today (just one roll). I also had a food comp at Gold Coast for another $20 (my favorite ribs at TGI Friday's). I was down $200 in mid-session at Mandalay Bay, and everything else was generally no downward action, just wins with very little play. I hit a $10 hard 8 at Mandalay for $100 and down (sent a $5 winner yo on the come to double my hard 8 from 5 to 10 and hit it on the next roll), and a player tipped me $1 on the hard four that I turned into $64 for each of me, the player, and the crew. ($3 three-way hard four after rolling hard four on the comeout, hard four for the win, and another hard four with no easy).

At Mandalay, I rolled three hardways in a row (with no hardway bets) and took everything down (four max odds bets) and bet all the hardways for the dealers for $1 each. I hit a hard ten parlayed that and then sevened out with my profit plus a couple of come bets that came back.

At the Silverton after I was done betting, I bet a hard 8 for the dealers and tried to go from 1 to 1000. I only made it to $10 though and I threw in a hand-in no bet at the same time as I put the $1 hard 8 up there. I really wanted to hit that 1 to 1000 for them though.

I may start doing all my dealer tips as hardway parlays at the end of my session when I am done betting. It would be nice to have my first 1 to $1000 be for the dealers.
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Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 8:55:21 AM permalink
I'm beginning to get worried about having too much money and being tempted to bet too much, so I'm going to throw some more at the home equity again.



Bankroll reset to $1,000. Just transferred the whole $3,000 to the house.

I need to focus more on other things in my life anyway and having all this money in my wallet is just something that I'm not ready for just yet, so I'm taking a little break. All the personal attacks and criticisms on this forum, including, has me focusing too much on a very small amount of money and it's detracting from other things in my life that are really more important than all this stuff to me.

My last break was from "blowing out my bankroll" so this break is for "getting back to even."

I've made up for all my lifetime losses at the game and I'm effectively back at zero. I had a lot of fun, and while I doubt that I am done, I at least accomplished my goal of getting it all back on a very long grind.

Quote: payment


RE: Account Number XXXXXXXXXX

This is to remind you of a transaction authorized on the Internet to make a payment to Nationstar Mortgage through Western Union Speedpay on 5/14/2013.

Details regarding the transaction appear below:

Confirmation Number: 7509702
Payment Date: 5/14/2013
Additional Principal: $3,000
Additional Escrow: $0.00
Other: $0.00
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nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 9:25:21 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

You know that the pass line has an edge per roll of 0.42%, right? Start another thread if you need help, though, alright!




$5 pass line
wins 8/36 x $5 = $1.11 (22.2%)
losses 4/36 x -$5 = -$0.56 (11.1%)
point 24/36 (66.7%)

4 - 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.42 (8.4%) house edge
5 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.28 (5.6%)
6 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.14 (2.8%)
8 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.14 (2.8%)
9 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.28 (5.6%)
10- 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.42 (8.4%)



stuck here now how do we turn this into overall house percentage?

weighted average?

.42 x 6outs + .28 x 8outs + .14 x 10 outs = 6.16 / 24 = -$.25667

now...

22.2% x $1.11 = .24642
11.1% x -$0.56 = -0.06216

.24642 + (-.06216) = .18426

-$0.25667 + .18426 = -$0.07241 or -$0.7

-0.07241 / $5 = -1.4482%


so unless this math is incorrect, please point me to the 0.42% thread/link that shows the math thanks, again mine is no odds, i have already stated that if you place odds you can lower the 1.4482%

looks like your .42 is coming from 2x odds behind the passline bet (WHICH I STATED I AMMMMMM NOOOOOT COUNTING>>>)

amazes me that you claim to know so much yet are so dumb about the math side of it.
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May 14th, 2013 at 9:30:22 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

$5 pass line
wins 8/36 x $5 = $1.11 (22.2%)
losses 4/36 x -$5 = -$0.56 (11.1%)
point 24/36 (66.7%)

4 - 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.42 (8.4%) house edge
5 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.28 (5.6%)
6 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.14 (2.8%)
8 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.14 (2.8%)
9 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.28 (5.6%)
10- 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.42 (8.4%)



stuck here now how do we turn this into overall house percentage?

weighted average?

.42 x 6outs + .28 x 8outs + .14 x 10 outs = 6.16 / 24 = -$.25667

now...

22.2% x $1.11 = .24642
11.1% x -$0.56 = -0.06216

.24642 + (-.06216) = .18426

-$0.25667 + .18426 = -$0.07241 or -$0.7

-0.07241 / $5 = -1.4482%


so unless this math is incorrect, please point me to the 0.42% thread/link that shows the math thanks, again mine is no odds, i have already stated that if you place odds you can lower the 1.4482%

looks like your .42 is coming from 2x odds behind the passline bet (WHICH I STATED I AMMMMMM NOOOOOT COUNTING>>>)

amazes me that you claim to know so much yet are so dumb about the math side of it.



Your comment accusing me of being dumb is exactly the type of comment that takes up my time that is leading me to be less interested in even participating in these forums, just so that you know you are having a VERY negative effect on me, you are. Alright?

Please consult with this appendix on "edge per roll." The 0.42 has NOTHING to do with odds. And as I stated and you ignored, this is not a thread for talking about this. Please consult with the FAQ and start a new thread if you are having trouble with your math. Your posts with all your math are misplaced in this thread.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2
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nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 9:57:33 AM permalink
thank you i will look it over. but i think my math makes perfect sense its all laid out. weighted averages everything. its all right in front of you.
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 9:59:35 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

thank you i will look it over. but i think my math makes perfect sense its all laid out. weighted averages everything. its all right in front of you.



Unfortunately, I'm not even reading it Nezbit. You come to the wrong conclusions, and I'm not your math professor. All the answers you are trying to get to are very well known and published in the FAQ by the guy who runs this forum. You need to become familiar with the basics before you start calling me names and accusing me of being dumb.
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nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 10:02:19 AM permalink
omg... my math was spot on, minus some very small rounding errors and i think i even did better than the 2 decimal places shown in appendix.


yes you are correct about the per throw, but once you make a pass line or come bet it is glued to the table until the bet is won or lost. so the per throw makes no difference. i can pull the iron cross on or off at any given time i please.


pass line: PER BET MADE: 1.41% (craps appendix 2)

LOL

exactly what my math says... im done here. sad

so should i start the iron cross thread again and show u its better odds that just a passline bet with no odds?

i have all day sir.
nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 10:03:34 AM permalink
i really hope the wizard jumps into this one. or some one who sees the math clearly.
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 10:38:32 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

i really hope the wizard jumps into this one. or some one who sees the math clearly.



Not bloody likely. If I am stupid, it's for wasting my time responding to posts like yours, my friend. You do have my attention. It's just not because I respect your opinions is all. It's because you are annoying me.

I posted on here for months before the Wizard said ANYTHING to me.

If he responds to your post, I might even be offended!
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EvenBob
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May 14th, 2013 at 12:02:45 PM permalink
Quote: nezbit

omg... my math was spot on, minus some very small rounding errors and i think i even did better than the 2 decimal places shown in appendix.
.



Don't worry, Mustang Sally already pegged Ahigh and
his math skills shortly after he joined. Or lack of skills, I
should say.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 12:13:58 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Don't worry, Mustang Sally already pegged Ahigh and
his math skills shortly after he joined. Or lack of skills, I
should say.



So you're going on record as saying this guy has it figured out that the pass line is not as good of a bet as the Iron Cross in terms of the edge? Just want to be sure about that.

As far as Mustang Sally, it was a similar argument. Edge per roll is just something that quite a few people just don't get for some reason. There are bets that you can take that are not marked on the felt, yet they are still valid bets even without the ink on the felt to go along with it.

Just because there is more than one person that doesn't understand edge per roll and how to make their own bets doesn't mean that I am wrong.

Your joining the chorus of my "lack of skills" when it comes to math just lumps you in with Nezbit, Mustang Sally, and ANYBODY ELSE who FAILS TO UNDERSTAND edge per roll versus edge per bet and how that you can put up and take down bets at any time (except the line) in order to make your own bets that are not marked on the felt.

So many people fail to understand how to make their own bets and only understand the bets that are on the felt and the percentages that go along with those bets. It's not a big deal as you have really good company.

But there's a lot more that just the bets that are marked out there that you can take, win, and then leave. Even in one roll!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13551-myths-about-controlled-shooters-shooting-and-the-captain/14/#post232275

EvenBob: you're still wrong! But I'm sure ignorance is bliss for both you and Nezbit!
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nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 12:50:15 PM permalink
its clearly a math game sir. and you have shown you can point me to links...so you obvioulsy do not understand


how many times must i show u the math?

i will start another thread called iron cross vs passline
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 1:04:20 PM permalink
Quote: nezbit

so you obvioulsy do not understand



Not obvious at all to me. It's only obvious to me that I am being very polite in telling you that you are arriving at the wrong answer and you're ignoring the fact that this is a frequently asked question with a well known and verified answer in the appendix on edge per roll and FAQ's where the edge per roll for the Iron Cross is specifically given by the Wizard.

The only thing for me to understand with regards to your question is that the Wizard himself gives the answers and they have stood the test of time of every great math guy on this forum. Even I have come up with the same answer and agree with him. Your disagreeing with me is also disagreeing with the Wizard.

Quote: nezbit

i will start another thread called iron cross vs passline



Finally. YES! And understand this will be for your benefit not mine. This thread is in the "Big Wins" topic. Not the topic on how to use a betting system.
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nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 2:21:29 PM permalink
we looked at per throw and bet resolved correct? u lead me there and i looked at the appendix.

per throw your right odds are like .42%, but since passline bets stay on table until they are resolved u actually lose and its 1.44%

Good Game A High, now keep studying maybe you will catch up one day.
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 2:25:41 PM permalink
Quote: nezbit

Good Game A High, now keep studying maybe you will catch up one day.



If I have a $1000 pass line bet and I roll a ten, and I feel like I don't want the bet any more, I lay the ten for $1334.

My edge per roll goes up from 0.42% edge per roll to 1.08% edge per roll for the two bets needed to neutralize my action for the remaining portion of the bet, but it's STILL not worse than the Iron Cross in terms of the edge per roll.

But you keep thinking however you want about me needing to catch up, Nezbit. It makes me chuckle.
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sodawater
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May 14th, 2013 at 2:33:16 PM permalink
ahigh:

CAN YOU GET THIS CONCEPT THROUGH YOUR HEAD?? Pass line bets are CONTRACT BETS. That means you may NOT TAKE THEM DOWN. Thus talking about "per roll" on pass line bets is completely inapplicable. IT DOES NOT APPLY. Since you cannot take down pass line bets, by default, the only edge you can talk about is per bet resolved. I have told you this so many times, I feel like I am talking to a child. Calculating "per roll" edges for pass line bets is for informational purposes only. They cannot be taken down. Maybe if you are on a cruise ship and you make a pass line bet, and then after 2 rolls and the bet is still unresolved, the ship hits an iceberg and you're able to steal your bet back, then maybe you can talk about per roll edges for pass line bets.
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 2:34:22 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

ahigh:

CAN YOU GET THIS CONCEPT THROUGH YOUR HEAD?? Pass line bets are CONTRACT BETS. That means you may NOT TAKE THEM DOWN. Thus talking about "per roll" on pass line bets is completely inapplicable. IT DOES NOT APPLY. Since you cannot take down pass line bets, by default, the only edge you can talk about is per bet resolved. I have told you this so many times, I feel like I am talking to a child. Calculating "per roll" edges for pass line bets is for informational purposes only. They cannot be taken down. Maybe if you are on a cruise ship and you make a pass line bet, and then after 2 rolls and the bet is still unresolved, the ship hits an iceberg and you're able to steal your bet back, then maybe you can talk about per roll edges for pass line bets.



Sure whatever you say, brother. How about both of you guys take this conversation to the other thread though.

Personally I think the difference between not being able to take down a passline bet and being able to take down a passline bet is figuring out how to get what you want with a combination of bets. But you live in your world, and I will live in mine.

Now back to my thread. Oh the joy of chopping down what I owe on my house....
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sodawater
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May 14th, 2013 at 2:39:34 PM permalink
Though experiment: a new craps bet called "the super pass line."

1. Whatever you roll on the come out becomes your point. Any number.

2. If you rolled anything but a 7 on the come out, you must repeat this point 9 times in a row before you repeat a seven 10 times in a row. If you rolled a 7 on the come out, you must repeat the 7 ten times in a row before you repeat a 6 nine times in a row.

The "edge per roll" of this bet is so small it's probably rounded zero. But since you can't take it down, you have to face the house edge per bet resolved.
EvenBob
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May 14th, 2013 at 2:44:21 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



Now back to my thread. Oh the joy of chopping down what I owe on my house....



Translation: No matter how wrong I am or how off
track, I still win, so there....
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
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