Poll

3 votes (25%)
9 votes (75%)

12 members have voted

Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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May 15th, 2013 at 12:53:01 AM permalink
Yeah, I already gave him this answer no fewer than about four times in a previous thread.

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/big-wins/13896-up-four-figures-in-craps/2/#post240248

Nezbit, we are trying to help you, but how many times have you been told now that the Iron Cross has a higher edge than the pass line?

Are you still thinking that I'm stupid? I know EvenBob also says this and talks about a similar situation with edge per roll on bets on the four and ten.

This is a topic that comes up frequently really, and some people just "don't get it." Maybe they never will, I don't know...

But in the appendix, you need to see that the pass line edge is 0.42% per roll on average. You do have to realize your goals change from the comeout roll and after the comeout roll, but the average house edge per roll is still much much lower, making it a better bet .. even for a dice influencer who can change what number they are targeting during the comeout and after the comeout.

Here is random data generated with a RSR of 6.25 (a reasonable goal for someone who has some influence.) In the long run, even no odds breaks even in the long run, but the IronCross doesn't. The edge is just too high!



As soon as you get to SRR of 6.5 and higher, you can make money in the long run from the IronCross, it's just that the hurdle to make money is very high and you're more likely to lose money unless you have a very good ability to not rolls sevens.

At a RSR of 7 or higher, the 205 Iron Cross beats the $5 line/come every roll with 10x odds. But getting a RSR that high on average is not something that I can do. It's just not that easy. Also you still have more risk on every roll with this strategy compared to a 10x odds strategy that has many rolls with on $5 bet at a time.

You can find folks talking about Iron Cross on the other forums where they discuss edges with modified "SRS's." If you believe you have a really high ratio of rolls to sevens, you should probably still only bet the even numbers (assuming you aren't betting odds) IMO to make the most money per unit of risk.

For a random shooter with a RSR of 6.00, the graph is much more revealing of the difference in edges and/or costs.



This is the image that the math guys who don't believe in controlled shooting may understand. You really lose with a random shot on this strategy. And pretty much everybody here thinks all shots are random.

If you just want to talk about how to flex your RSR of 7 or higher, GO FOR IT! The math only matters when you get fewer than 1 in 7 sevens.

But I'm under 6.5 for my recorded rolls, and I get a bunch of sevens all at once sometimes. My IronCross on my data looks like break-even about.

This is for my recorded 3400 rolls, and is the ultimate reason I won't be the Iron Cross. I would be busting my ass just to break even!



I sincerely hope this helps, Nezbit. You can always go over to Axis Power website and they will agree that betting the 5 and the 9 and the field are great bets if you have a great SRR or RSR. But if you turn out to chuck random throws and you start losing, they aren't going to be able to help you, just say, "oh yeah, if you're not a DI you don't want that strategy." RSR of 7 is pretty damn hard to do for more than 1000 throws..
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boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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May 15th, 2013 at 6:27:22 AM permalink
That's very pretty, and that's about all it is. Pretty.

The craps appendix that you list shows the per-roll expected loss for pass line at .42%. It doesn't matter if a PL has to resolve itself or not.

The PL is a better bet. Actually, an even better betting system than Iron Cross is pass with come bets up and working. It's really due to the 7 winner that the PL does so well where as every other bet (beside big red) is a loser.

In short, yeah, it would be great to take our pass lines down after the point is established, but we can't. Don't players like the opposite: getting by the pass line and then betting that a point isn't made.

Place bets + field (iron cross) sucks. Only a place on the 6 and 8 make sense and are comparable to the PL/DP
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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May 15th, 2013 at 7:13:36 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

That's very pretty, and that's about all it is. Pretty.



That may be all you have to say, but that's not all you have to imply.

Here's what I have to say: my charts show very clearly the resulting ups and downs of various strategies. You may only have to comment that it is pretty. But I believe that, for me at least, these charts demonstrate very succinctly the absolute NOISE that results from employing free odds bets that you have to wade through to make a profit. It also demonstrates long-term trends in betting strategies where you can visually make out the line corresponding to the edge.

That edge could be your edge or the casino's edge.

That's not just pretty. It's PRETTY FREAKING AWESOME to me.

I have criticized people on this forum before for thinking that volatility was the only path to profit. And currently I am joining the WOV club doing these ups and downs, very much at the Wizard's pushing and prodding to "take my odds bets."

But the bankroll requirements to get the best edge per roll is something I would rather not even have to do. Having a chart to demonstrate an edge VISUALLY is more than pretty to me. And your implication otherwise is pretty ignorant of the benefits of looking at data this way.
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nezbit
nezbit
Joined: Apr 1, 2013
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May 15th, 2013 at 7:13:20 PM permalink
i get what you are saying but we are comparing getting paid to not getting paid. Iron Cross gets resolved every roll, passline does not, So..to make compareable i have to count resolved bets only...plus the passline bet will get resolved sooner or later (YOU CANNOT PICK IT UP)

why waste rolls? Just get paid every roll. Especially if you can avoid the 7?


alan, you can do variations of the iron cross and you can press if you want.

you could do
5 - $10
6/8 - $12 each
field $7

$41 per roll
Mikey75
Mikey75
Joined: Mar 1, 2013
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May 15th, 2013 at 7:56:41 PM permalink
Get the win craps software. Start with any bankroll you want to. Bet pass line only untill you have no money left. Then bet the iron cross until you go broke. I PROMISE you that your bankroll will expire a lot faster betting the iron cross than the pass line. This is a negitive expection game. The iron cross doesn't change that!! Even if you are a DI all the experts will tell you the only way to win is the bet the lowest house edge. The field bet is not the lowest house edge and it's certainly to high to be betting. I to was aboard the iron cross train untill I looked a little deeper and ran several sims through wincraps. No matter how you look at it the only bet on table with a lower house edge than the pass line is the dont.
nezbit
nezbit
Joined: Apr 1, 2013
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May 15th, 2013 at 9:50:10 PM permalink
Quote: Mikey75

Get the win craps software. Start with any bankroll you want to. Bet pass line only untill you have no money left. Then bet the iron cross until you go broke. I PROMISE you that your bankroll will expire a lot faster betting the iron cross than the pass line. This is a negitive expection game. The iron cross doesn't change that!! Even if you are a DI all the experts will tell you the only way to win is the bet the lowest house edge. The field bet is not the lowest house edge and it's certainly to high to be betting. I to was aboard the iron cross train untill I looked a little deeper and ran several sims through wincraps. No matter how you look at it the only bet on table with a lower house edge than the pass line is the dont.



Talking bet resolved man and iron cross is better.



Lets rephrase poll

Favor iron cross: 5 bets resolved
Favor pass line no odds: 5 bets resolved


And lol at run out of money faster... If that's the case lets just bet pass and don't pass at same time then full odds on both. This might take awhile to go broke
nezbit
nezbit
Joined: Apr 1, 2013
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May 15th, 2013 at 10:13:53 PM permalink
A high i just read your last post. Your data again is unfair, like stated in the thread apples vs oranges. You did thousands of resolved iron cross bets (every roll). Pass line bets get resolved at very best 11/36 tries. Can u show same data on just bets resolved? Hope we agree iron cross wins that, and...since all pass line bets get resolved at some point my conclusion is iron cross wins.
We have already clarified that pass line is better per roll. We want bet resolved. We know u h ave days to throw pointless rolls but some of us don't, this whole thread was made about di/dc anyway and how I favored iron cross if they can truly avoid the 7.

I know it's neg ev, that's obvious. The point was to show it was better bet if you can avoid the 7. Good data though i hope I live 62 life times so i can roll 50,000 rolls
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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May 15th, 2013 at 11:02:38 PM permalink
Some people cannot get over the fact that they are wrong. Why not just admit to being a degenerate gambler that needs action on every roll? That way we can understand why you think the way you do.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Mikey75
Mikey75
Joined: Mar 1, 2013
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May 16th, 2013 at 10:52:13 AM permalink
Some people will just never listen to logic or reason. If I want to throw my money away and recklessly gamble I may throw a iron cross bet out there. If I want to gamble with the best edge possible then I'll leave the IC to someone else.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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May 16th, 2013 at 11:04:20 AM permalink
Quote: Mikey75

Some people will just never listen to logic or reason. If I want to throw my money away and recklessly gamble I may throw a iron cross bet out there. If I want to gamble with the best edge possible then I'll leave the IC to someone else.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAkiSTVPxn4
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