Iron Cross vs Pass Line

Ok so A High just points to links that i have looked at over and over. He apparently doesnt take the time to view them himself.

So I just thought I would post this thread about avoiding the 7 and which would be better to make money.

So with that lets look at numbers.

IRON CROSS: I Have a version of the iron cross where you win on everything expect a 7. Mine looks like so.

I call it the 205 (cuz you need $205 to do the bet) - yes you can do different variations if you please.

BET LAYOUT:
Field - $35
place 5 - $50
place 6/8 - $60

Breakdown of the pay outs.
5 6 8 roll you win $70 - $35 field bet for net of $35

3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 pay $35
2 pays $70
12 pays $105

added up that equals

3/11 - 4 combos ($35*4) = $140
4/10 - 6 combos ($35*6) = $210
5/9 - 8 combos ($35*8) = $280
6/8 - 10 combos ($35*10) =$350
2 - 1 combo ($70*1) = $70
12 - 1 combo ($105*1) = $105

this is a grand total of $1155

7 - 6 combos (-$205*6) = $1230


$1155/36 = $32.08333
$1230/36 = -$34.16667

$-2.08333 per throw

can also find this number by $1155-$1230 = -$75, -$75/36 outcomes = -$2.08333

since we have $205 wagered on every roll and can expect to lose $2.08333 the expected value per throw is

-$2.08333/$205 = -1.01626%



IRON CROSS HOUSE EDGE: 1.01626%








PASS LINE BET:

$5 pass line

Come Out roll:
wins 8/36 x $5 = $1.11 (22.2%)
losses 4/36 x -$5 = -$0.56 (11.1%)

point 24/36 (66.7%)

4 - 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.42 (8.4%) house edge
5 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.28 (5.6%)
6 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.14 (2.8%)
8 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.14 (2.8%)
9 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.28 (5.6%)
10- 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$0.42 (8.4%)



Now we have to take weighted average of these above figures to get this.

-.42 x 6outs + -.28 x 8outs + -.14 x 10 outs = 6.16 / 24 outs = -$.25667

-.25667 / $5 = -5.1333% (average disadvantage after point is established)

now we combine come out roll and after point is established to get total house edge

22.2% x $1.11 = .24642
11.1% x -$0.56 = -0.06216

.24642 + (-.06216) = .18426

-$0.25667 + .18426 = -$0.07241

-0.07241 / $5 = -1.4481%



PASS LINE HOUSE EDGE (NO ODDS): 1.4481%



conclusion:


IRON CROSS HOUSE EDGE: 1.01626%
PASS LINE HOUSE EDGE (NO ODDS): 1.4481%


my whole point of this is exactly this. When you toss a pass line bet down u win by 7/11 1st roll or have to hit your number again. We all know this. Once your bet is placed u are locked into the bet and will roll til it wins or loses. You could roll 34 times without hitting point making zero dollars. for people who can avoid the 7 more often then not, why would you ever want to roll your "valuable" rolls without getting paid for them. If you roll iron cross 34 times you win at least $35x34 = $1190.

I am not claiming the iron cross is a system, it has a negative expected value which i understand. I am simply stating for dice controllers or influencers I do not see why you wouldn't employ this strategy every time. Please dont point me to some link AHigh...really making me think u dont know anything, just regurgitate other peoples information.


instead tell me why this isnt a good idea?

my next post will be dice controllers rolling 7, 1 in 7 times and then we look at odds.

My whole point is why do DC/DI not use iron cross? The higher percentage they can avoid the 7 the better the odds get in their favor eventually overtaking the house. lets look at that math.

Nezbit -- your math is wrong, since every single one of your bets has a higher house edge than 1.01626%. You can't add up bets with higher house edges and get a result with a lower house edge -- that is not mathematically possible.

Since your "iron cross" is all bets that can be taken down, then, yes, if you leave them up for just one roll, it will have a lower house edge than the standard pass line bet resolved.

So I guess if you were to only bet exactly one roll of the dice, the iron cross would be better than making a pass line bet.

3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 pay $35
2 pays $70
12 pays $105

added up that equals

3/11 - 4 combos ($35*4) = $140
4/10 - 6 combos ($35*6) = $210
5/9 - 8 combos ($35*8) = $280
6/8 - 10 combos ($35*10) =$350
2 - 1 combo ($70*1) = $70
12 - 1 combo ($105*1) = $105

this is a grand total of $1155

7 - 6 combos (-$205*6) = $1230
(MODIFY HERE - Dice Controller rolls 7 out 1 in 7 times) 1/6 = .166667, 1/7 = .145287, take difference of the two to get .0238 or 2.38% edge

1230 x (100% - 2.38%) = 1200.714

$1155/36 = $32.08333
$1200.714/36 = -$33.35317

now take difference of the two

$-1.2698416 per throw

can also find this number by $1155-$1200.714 = -$45.714, -$45.714/36 outcomes = -$1.2698416

since we have $205 wagered on every roll and can expect to lose $1.27 the expected value per throw is

-$1.2698416/$205 = -0.61943%


getting better as we throw better as u can see


you need to avoid it 1 in 9.462 times to break even with house.

now lets look at passline

Quote: sodawater

Nezbit -- your math is wrong, since every single one of your bets has a higher house edge than 1.01626%. You can't add up bets with higher house edges and get a result with a lower house edge -- that is not mathematically possible.

Since your "iron cross" is all bets that can be taken down, then, yes, if you leave them up for just one roll, it will have a lower house edge than the standard pass line bet resolved.

So I guess if you were to only bet exactly one roll of the dice, the iron cross would be better than making a pass line bet.

where is math wrong? Maybe im the nub...?

PASS LINE BET:

$5 pass line

Come Out roll:
wins 8/36 x $5 = $1.11 (22.2%)
losses 4/36 x -$5 = -$0.56 (11.1%)

point 24/36 (66.7%)
(new numbers)
4 - 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$.40999 - now lets look at 1/7 avoidance 2.38% gain (*by 100%-2.38%)
5 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$.27333
6 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$.13666
8 - 5 wins / 6 losses 5/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$.13666
9 - 4 wins / 6 losses 4/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$.27333
10- 3 wins / 6 losses 3/36 x $5 - 6/36 x -$5 = -$.40999



Now we have to take weighted average of these above figures to get this.

-.40999 x 6outs + -0.27333 x 8outs + -.13666 x 10 outs = 6.013264 / 24 outs = -$.25055

-.25055 / $5 = -5.0111% (average disadvantage after point is established)

now we combine come out roll and after point is established to get total house edge

22.2% x $1.11 = .24642
11.1% x -$0.56 = -0.06216

.24642 + (-.06216) = .18426

-$0.25055 + .18426 = -$0.06629

-0.06629 / $5 = -1.3258%

dropped a little. You overall lower your chance of 7 out, but your odds of rolling the point still remain the same. So everytime you dont hit point u are just wasting throws. again i favor iron cross.

What about Mississippi, where the 5 would pay $73?

Quote: DeMango

What about Mississippi, where the 5 would pay $73?

not sure what this is exactly, but $3 added into the mix for the iron cross would

make it ($1155 + $3 + $3 + $3 + $3) = $1167 wins - $1230 losses = -$63

-$63 / 36 outcomes = -$1.75 / $205 wagered

= .8536%

so you cut your odds down to under 1 percent

The reason the overall house edge appears to be less than the house edge of each individual bet is because the house edge on place bets is generally measured as expected player loss per bet resolved.However in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll. This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4.00% to 1.11% on the 5 and 9, and from 1.52% to 0.46% on the 6 and 8. - straight from the wizard

For you purists who think I am inconsistent in measuring the house edge on place bets as per bet resolved (or ignoring ties) then I invite you to visit my craps appendix 2 where all craps bets are measured per roll (including ties). - straight from the wizard

https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/betting-systems/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/

again iron cross prevails against pass line bet with no odds

I have a simpler way of explaining why I am against the Iron Cross method: it costs too much.

My strategy is to bet as little as I can and to win and to press my bets with my wins.

The problem with the math here is that you are comparing apples to oranges, so to speak. For the iron cross example you are computing a HE on a per roll basis, but on the pass line computation you are computing it on a per bet resolved basis. Converting the pass line numbers to a per roll basis would result in a HE of approximately .42% which is still less than 1.01%. Alternatively, you could multiply amount of expected loss per roll times the number of rolls it would take to resolve a pass line bet (this varies depending on which number the point is) to get an equivalent edge to the per bet resolved edge that way you would be comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges. BTW the HE would be higher for either computation. I hope this helps.

Yeah, I already gave him this answer no fewer than about four times in a previous thread.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/big-wins/13896-up-four-figures-in-craps/2/#post240248

Nezbit, we are trying to help you, but how many times have you been told now that the Iron Cross has a higher edge than the pass line?

Are you still thinking that I'm stupid? I know EvenBob also says this and talks about a similar situation with edge per roll on bets on the four and ten.

This is a topic that comes up frequently really, and some people just "don't get it." Maybe they never will, I don't know...

But in the appendix, you need to see that the pass line edge is 0.42% per roll on average. You do have to realize your goals change from the comeout roll and after the comeout roll, but the average house edge per roll is still much much lower, making it a better bet .. even for a dice influencer who can change what number they are targeting during the comeout and after the comeout.

Here is random data generated with a RSR of 6.25 (a reasonable goal for someone who has some influence.) In the long run, even no odds breaks even in the long run, but the IronCross doesn't. The edge is just too high!



As soon as you get to SRR of 6.5 and higher, you can make money in the long run from the IronCross, it's just that the hurdle to make money is very high and you're more likely to lose money unless you have a very good ability to not rolls sevens.

At a RSR of 7 or higher, the 205 Iron Cross beats the $5 line/come every roll with 10x odds. But getting a RSR that high on average is not something that I can do. It's just not that easy. Also you still have more risk on every roll with this strategy compared to a 10x odds strategy that has many rolls with on $5 bet at a time.

You can find folks talking about Iron Cross on the other forums where they discuss edges with modified "SRS's." If you believe you have a really high ratio of rolls to sevens, you should probably still only bet the even numbers (assuming you aren't betting odds) IMO to make the most money per unit of risk.

For a random shooter with a RSR of 6.00, the graph is much more revealing of the difference in edges and/or costs.



This is the image that the math guys who don't believe in controlled shooting may understand. You really lose with a random shot on this strategy. And pretty much everybody here thinks all shots are random.

If you just want to talk about how to flex your RSR of 7 or higher, GO FOR IT! The math only matters when you get fewer than 1 in 7 sevens.

But I'm under 6.5 for my recorded rolls, and I get a bunch of sevens all at once sometimes. My IronCross on my data looks like break-even about.

This is for my recorded 3400 rolls, and is the ultimate reason I won't be the Iron Cross. I would be busting my ass just to break even!



I sincerely hope this helps, Nezbit. You can always go over to Axis Power website and they will agree that betting the 5 and the 9 and the field are great bets if you have a great SRR or RSR. But if you turn out to chuck random throws and you start losing, they aren't going to be able to help you, just say, "oh yeah, if you're not a DI you don't want that strategy." RSR of 7 is pretty damn hard to do for more than 1000 throws..

That's very pretty, and that's about all it is. Pretty.

The craps appendix that you list shows the per-roll expected loss for pass line at .42%. It doesn't matter if a PL has to resolve itself or not.

The PL is a better bet. Actually, an even better betting system than Iron Cross is pass with come bets up and working. It's really due to the 7 winner that the PL does so well where as every other bet (beside big red) is a loser.

In short, yeah, it would be great to take our pass lines down after the point is established, but we can't. Don't players like the opposite: getting by the pass line and then betting that a point isn't made.

Place bets + field (iron cross) sucks. Only a place on the 6 and 8 make sense and are comparable to the PL/DP

Quote: boymimbo

That's very pretty, and that's about all it is. Pretty.

That may be all you have to say, but that's not all you have to imply.

Here's what I have to say: my charts show very clearly the resulting ups and downs of various strategies. You may only have to comment that it is pretty. But I believe that, for me at least, these charts demonstrate very succinctly the absolute NOISE that results from employing free odds bets that you have to wade through to make a profit. It also demonstrates long-term trends in betting strategies where you can visually make out the line corresponding to the edge.

That edge could be your edge or the casino's edge.

That's not just pretty. It's PRETTY FREAKING AWESOME to me.

I have criticized people on this forum before for thinking that volatility was the only path to profit. And currently I am joining the WOV club doing these ups and downs, very much at the Wizard's pushing and prodding to "take my odds bets."

But the bankroll requirements to get the best edge per roll is something I would rather not even have to do. Having a chart to demonstrate an edge VISUALLY is more than pretty to me. And your implication otherwise is pretty ignorant of the benefits of looking at data this way.

i get what you are saying but we are comparing getting paid to not getting paid. Iron Cross gets resolved every roll, passline does not, So..to make compareable i have to count resolved bets only...plus the passline bet will get resolved sooner or later (YOU CANNOT PICK IT UP)

why waste rolls? Just get paid every roll. Especially if you can avoid the 7?


alan, you can do variations of the iron cross and you can press if you want.

you could do
5 - $10
6/8 - $12 each
field $7

$41 per roll

Get the win craps software. Start with any bankroll you want to. Bet pass line only untill you have no money left. Then bet the iron cross until you go broke. I PROMISE you that your bankroll will expire a lot faster betting the iron cross than the pass line. This is a negitive expection game. The iron cross doesn't change that!! Even if you are a DI all the experts will tell you the only way to win is the bet the lowest house edge. The field bet is not the lowest house edge and it's certainly to high to be betting. I to was aboard the iron cross train untill I looked a little deeper and ran several sims through wincraps. No matter how you look at it the only bet on table with a lower house edge than the pass line is the dont.

Quote: Mikey75

Get the win craps software. Start with any bankroll you want to. Bet pass line only untill you have no money left. Then bet the iron cross until you go broke. I PROMISE you that your bankroll will expire a lot faster betting the iron cross than the pass line. This is a negitive expection game. The iron cross doesn't change that!! Even if you are a DI all the experts will tell you the only way to win is the bet the lowest house edge. The field bet is not the lowest house edge and it's certainly to high to be betting. I to was aboard the iron cross train untill I looked a little deeper and ran several sims through wincraps. No matter how you look at it the only bet on table with a lower house edge than the pass line is the dont.

Talking bet resolved man and iron cross is better.



Lets rephrase poll

Favor iron cross: 5 bets resolved
Favor pass line no odds: 5 bets resolved


And lol at run out of money faster... If that's the case lets just bet pass and don't pass at same time then full odds on both. This might take awhile to go broke

A high i just read your last post. Your data again is unfair, like stated in the thread apples vs oranges. You did thousands of resolved iron cross bets (every roll). Pass line bets get resolved at very best 11/36 tries. Can u show same data on just bets resolved? Hope we agree iron cross wins that, and...since all pass line bets get resolved at some point my conclusion is iron cross wins.
We have already clarified that pass line is better per roll. We want bet resolved. We know u h ave days to throw pointless rolls but some of us don't, this whole thread was made about di/dc anyway and how I favored iron cross if they can truly avoid the 7.

I know it's neg ev, that's obvious. The point was to show it was better bet if you can avoid the 7. Good data though i hope I live 62 life times so i can roll 50,000 rolls

Some people cannot get over the fact that they are wrong. Why not just admit to being a degenerate gambler that needs action on every roll? That way we can understand why you think the way you do.

Some people will just never listen to logic or reason. If I want to throw my money away and recklessly gamble I may throw a iron cross bet out there. If I want to gamble with the best edge possible then I'll leave the IC to someone else.

Quote: Mikey75

Some people will just never listen to logic or reason. If I want to throw my money away and recklessly gamble I may throw a iron cross bet out there. If I want to gamble with the best edge possible then I'll leave the IC to someone else.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAkiSTVPxn4

Quote: nezbit

Talking bet resolved man and iron cross is better.



Lets rephrase poll

Favor iron cross: 5 bets resolved
Favor pass line no odds: 5 bets resolved


And lol at run out of money faster... If that's the case lets just bet pass and don't pass at same time then full odds on both. This might take awhile to go broke

Ok let's talk bets resolved. The best single win you have a chance of is $105 on the 12. If you roll five 12's in a row you would win $525.

If you placed $205 on the pass line and won 5 times in a row you would win $1025!!

Your going to lose the same $205 when the seven rolls on either bet. What would have the best chance of happening in a session winning $1025 from from the iron cross betting 205 or hitting five points with 205 on the pass line? If you had a controlled throw you would win more faster betting the pass line than the IC.

Quote: Mikey75

Ok let's talk bets resolved. The best single win you have a chance of is $105 on the 12. If you roll five 12's in a row you would win $525.

If you placed $205 on the pass line and won 5 times in a row you would win $1025!!

Your going to lose the same $205 when the seven rolls on either bet. What would have the best chance of happening in a session winning $1025 from from the iron cross betting 205 or hitting five points with 205 on the pass line? If you had a controlled throw you would win more faster betting the pass line than the IC.

I hate to intervene, but this is like talking to a wall, Mikey. We have the same thing happening with the Biased dice discussion.

Belief systems die hard.

Quote: Ahigh

I hate to intervene, but this is like talking to a wall, Mikey. We have the same thing happening with the Biased dice discussion.

Belief systems die hard.

There's the pot calling the kettle black...

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

There's the pot calling the kettle black...

ZCore13

I think you meant "here" not "there." But you were only missing one letter.

THE iron cross has a house advantage of 3.87% (2x12 and 2) period........ 3400 rolls dont mean a thing
I sat 11 year grand son down last night just to see how hard this is. I said Dana if you place this bet and you
lose 1.52% and if you place this bet and lose 4% and if you place this bet and lose 5.56% do you think it would
be possible to place all the bests at the same time and lose less than 1.52%...

He just laughed, my son in law is an engineer, he heard our conversation and said dont try to put nonsense
in Daners head... laughing.

that is about what it is............ 2+ 2 is four...unless you want to play the iron cross , then 1.52 +4+5.56 is
less than 1.52.

I suppose i should go roll 4000 times to prove this however smart craps already has with millions of rolls.

And besides my wife wants me to build a fence... she is like the iron cross betters.... not a brain anywhere, she
wants me to take a wood fence down which is around our pool and replace it with another wood fence
that looks about the same..... i know 1.52+4+5.56 makes sense to her


dicesetter

3.87% .. so now we have three way to measure edges: per bet resolved, per roll, and "period."

Nice way to keep people from arguing about this. Just make a new type of edge, "period."

And what if you take it to 6 units each, buying the 5 for $30?? Yup, that figure would have to be reduced!