When to go for the big win???

Poll Question is: How often do you enter a casino... with no intent of booking a small win, either going bust or winning at least 40X investment.

Discussion question is: Is it actually possible that having a stop limit (winning) already set can legitimately be screwing over a player compared to going to casino with no 'blueprint' of when to stop? I am a huge, HUGE, HUGE!!!! fan of booking winners, but if it means no shot at that huge win :/

Every time I hear stories about players that ran:

200$ up to 3,000$ playing 1-2 nL poker
400$ up to 600,000$ playing blackjack (happened in Indiana 2011)
100$ up to 15,000$ playing craps

I mostly think, I would have never gotten that far. If I were to buy in for 200$ at baccarat... and ran it up to 1,000$ I personally would leave. Then, I hear these true stories of players that keep going and win relative insane amounts. It makes me wonder if I should ever go for that huge win.

I spend a lot of time at casinos, thus, I see lot of different types of gamblers. I am thinking to myself, what is the formula for a big win??? My current theory is that is depends on when people decide to stop gambling. When it comes time to leave, these are the different types of people:

A. People that no matter what, will not stop gambling until it is all gone. No matter what, they must lose. Will not leave a winner.
B. Players double his/her invest, then instantly leave.
C. If a player is at an 'odd' amount... say 2,490$... that player will try to get to that 'even' number (2,500$ in this case) then leave.
D. Players that are up 'a decent amount' wait for: shoe to end, blinds to get back to them (poker), until credits are even (slots).
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Any opinions or stories on the matter?

Quote: minnesotajoe

Poll Question is: How often do you enter a casino... with no intent of booking a small win, either going bust or winning at least 40X investment.

Discussion question is: Is it actually possible that having a stop limit (winning) already set can legitimately be screwing over a player compared to going to casino with no 'blueprint' of when to stop? I am a huge, HUGE, HUGE!!!! fan of booking winners, but if it means no shot at that huge win :/

Every time I hear stories about players that ran:

200$ up to 3,000$ playing 1-2 nL poker
400$ up to 600,000$ playing blackjack (happened in Indiana 2011)
100$ up to 15,000$ playing craps

I mostly think, I would have never gotten that far. If I were to buy in for 200$ at baccarat... and ran it up to 1,000$ I personally would leave. Then, I hear these true stories of players that keep going and win relative insane amounts. It makes me wonder if I should ever go for that huge win.

I spend a lot of time at casinos, thus, I see lot of different types of gamblers. I am thinking to myself, what is the formula for a big win??? My current theory is that is depends on when people decide to stop gambling. When it comes time to leave, these are the different types of people:

A. People that no matter what, will not stop gambling until it is all gone. No matter what, they must lose. Will not leave a winner.
B. Players double his/her invest, then instantly leave.
C. If a player is at an 'odd' amount... say 2,490$... that player will try to get to that 'even' number (2,500$ in this case) then leave.
D. Players that are up 'a decent amount' wait for: shoe to end, blinds to get back to them (poker), until credits are even (slots).
----------

Any opinions or stories on the matter?

I've seen some pretty crazy wins myself. $200 into $23,000 on blackjack, a green chip into over $3,000 on craps, 40,000 off of 1,000 in baccarat. I mean hell, I won 680 off of 100 on a 10 dollar blackjack table two weeks ago, placing no bet larger than 20 dollars, in less than an hour.

That being said, I never have the guts to bet big or take long shots (hardways etc), in search of a big win. It's always tough to decide when to quit, and when my 100 had turned to 300 I had strongly considered taking the money home. I'm glad I didn't. I could have also started betting bigger when I had 700, with the thought that I didn't have the money when I came in, so I might as well try to book a huge win or go broke.

In the instances of the huge wins I've witnessed, the players didn't seem to be rationalizing the amount they were betting. They were just experiencing various of epic proportions. The 23k blackjack winner was throwing around purple chips like they were candy, doubling his 500 dollar 19 against a 4 just because he could. I've seen him at the casino many other times betting red and bitching about how many times the dealer seems to get blackjack. I don't think I could get to the point where I wouldn't think twice about wagering two days worth of work on a single hand.

Perhaps the best example I have is of a friend who I went to Foxwoods with recently. I had taught him some basic strategy and we had practiced the Wizard's game that corrects errors (thanks Wiz), and took off on the trip. We both brought a bankroll of 500 dollars for the night. He had only played blackjack in a casino once before. We sit down at the table and I bet the minimum ($15) and he plops down his whole 500 dollars on the first hand. Naturally he gets a blackjack. He plays two more hands at 50 dollars a piece and says he has had enough fun at the tables. He booked a 650 dollar win in 1 minute, more than doubling his bankroll. I played at the table for about an hour at the minimum bet and finished up 40 bucks. He was reckless and willing to risk it all, and that was why he won big. It could have just as easily gone the other way and he could have been broke and been trying to mooch free bud lights from the cocktail waitress. Instead he drank black label while I gambled and drank a watered down rum and coke.

If you read my trip reports you will see I'm not very good about booking small wins.

But that is not entirely a fair assessment either. Because I do not have a casino close by, when I travel to a casino, it is for a couple of days and I want to PLAY and PLAY and PLAY. If I book a small win, then I don't get to play. I could book a small win, walk away, and then come back again for another small win, but why? Same affect as just staying and playing.

My compromise that I have created is I am going for a win, but if I can get up (so I have doubled my trip bankroll) I will play much higher bets, hoping to parlay that into a 10,000 plus win. For my most recent trip it did not work out. I lost 3/4 of the amount I was ahead. I still finished up, but I could have come home with double my bankroll. No regrets, since my plan was to risk it. Next time I might just get to bring home 10,000. :-)

I am working on leaving a table where I have been down for a long time, and I have crawled back to even. Cashing out, taking a break, and then coming back has some merit, and I really want to get much better at doing that.

I personally think booking smaller gains in a session is best. Even for a multi-day trip it can allow you to get up there in terms of wins. For Blackjack I generally like to leverage a marker to get my session win up to 2-5 times the amount I've taken out on a marker. This summer I was able to turn my initial 15k in markers to over 160k in just a matter of a few days. Sure you'll have swings but if you start increasing your average bet disproportionately you'll increase your chance of ruin.

I've also been considering whether it makes more sense to go for the blowout win after you exceed your goal in a short period of 1-2 hours. For example making 10-20k when you were expecting to win 5k, and trying to turn your 20k bank roll into something closer to 40-100k, but in general you should still keep your threshold bottom line at your initial goal of the 5k so you still go home happy.

I have no stop limits when I play craps. I am basically a flea and my buy-in at the craps table is never more than $200 and usually $100 at a time. But I will continue to press bets after booking a win until a hot roll ends. Occassionally I will get a hot enough roll that I have blacks and full odds on the numbers. I ignore the fact that the 7 out will cost me thousands because at that point I will have $10K or more in the rack. I wouldn't have that big 7 out loss with a stop win limit but I also would never get to $10K plus in the rack. I will only stay for a roll or 2 after unless the table stays really hot. Adrenlin is usually too high to concentrate at that point anyway.

I like the idea of pressing it with craps because the initial buy-in can be "easily be ballooned"... but man, you must have a ton of WHACKS when big run is up.

To get a big win on blackjack/baccarat, although it is possible, it is extremely hard to win by sticking at a 'minimal' bet. What I am trying to say:
For a player that generally brings 500$ into casino, and will begin playing between 10-30$ per hand to run it up to 20,000$ without pressing.. would have to catch an extreme hot streak. So this is how I see the scenario.

A baccarat player buys in for 200$ and plays the 10-30$ per hand... then at one point is say +200
At this point, can book the "small" 200$ win, doubling investment... OR go for it.

Tell a person that will buy in for 200$ that he/she will be placing 2,000$, 4,000$ bets within the night he/she will think that's insane. I just wonder at what point would I decide for it.

Quote: minnesotajoe

Tell a person that will buy in for 200$ that he/she will be placing 2,000$, 4,000$ bets within the night he/she will think that's insane. I just wonder at what point would I decide for it.

I think that it's a lot easier, psychologically, for a lot of people at craps than at any other game. The reason is that the chips are already out there on the felt and they don't feel like "yours" until the dealer pushes them back to you.

It's a lot easier to tell the dealer to press your bets than it is to slide the chips out there yourself. Especially if it's only a partial press, since he is still handing you chips. If you have a $400 bet out there on the 4 and it hits, you toss the dealer $20 and tell him to press it, and he slides you $400 and ups your bet to $800. It feels like you are taking in $400, not tossing $800 out there. If he just slid you all $1200 instead, I'll bet most people would find it a lot harder to give him $800 of it back.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I think that it's a lot easier, psychologically, for a lot of people at craps than at any other game. The reason is that the chips are already out there on the felt and they don't feel like "yours" until the dealer pushes them back to you.

It's a lot easier to tell the dealer to press your bets than it is to slide the chips out there yourself. Especially if it's only a partial press, since he is still handing you chips. If you have a $400 bet out there on the 4 and it hits, you toss the dealer $20 and tell him to press it, and he slides you $400 and ups your bet to $800. It feels like you are taking in $400, not tossing $800 out there. If he just slid you all $1200 instead, I'll bet most people would find it a lot harder to give him $800 of it back.

I agree with your sentiment that it is easiest to do this while playing craps, but I don't understand your math. Are you talking about a $400 place bet or come bet? A $400 place bet would pay $720, so the dealer would slide you $320 if you pressed it. But why would you give him $20 to add to it to press it? You lost me on that part of your explanation.

A buy bet. Why would you place it? The $20 is commission. (The assumption is that the commission is 5% paid on win only, which is standard in Vegas)