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P90
P90
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March 15th, 2012 at 12:46:55 PM permalink
The problem with big jackpots is what you are going to do with $300 million. Is it really any different from what you're going to do with $50 million?
If not, and it's almost certainly not, then the Expected Utility or EU is not there. And if you're going to buy a lot of tickets, we're talking 1,000s at least, the lost utility is very significant. So you're not getting the proper odds.

This concept often comes in play in tournaments. There are situations where you would call all-in with 83-off, and situations where you would fold AA preflop, because the worth of your chips is so non-linear.
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YoDiceRoll11
YoDiceRoll11
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March 15th, 2012 at 1:36:56 PM permalink
Who is really going to fold AA?
Triplell
Triplell
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March 15th, 2012 at 1:39:22 PM permalink
Quote: YoDiceRoll11

Who is really going to fold AA?



Watch this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHiEkikhDGU
YoDiceRoll11
YoDiceRoll11
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March 15th, 2012 at 2:00:06 PM permalink
Yeah, So looking back it was a good call. But the math everytime says AA is your best shot pre flop. Please explain it isn't. (I'm not a poker pro)
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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March 15th, 2012 at 2:17:33 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

At one time it was possible to buy large blocks of tickets to capitalize on +EV lottery situtations. Here is a story of an older couple who each bought 150,000 tickets at $2 each, over the course of three days in order to profit from a loophole in the Massachusetts lottery. They supposedly doubled their money on the lottery winnings.

It is unclear if they bought quick picks or used prefilled entry slips. I understand Massachusetts changed the rules of the game, limiting the number of tickets that could be sold to an individual each day, after this story broke last year.


This is the story I was looking for. Thanks!
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Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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March 15th, 2012 at 2:41:05 PM permalink
Quote: edward

Apart from the first prize there are also the smaller win cathegories and if you buy lets say 10 quick pick tickets your chances do not increase linearly.



But they do increase linearly. The problem is that one ticket or 10 tickets do not make much of a dent when there are 176 million+ possible combinations. Your odds of winning with 10 tickets are 10x better than your odds with only one. Your odds with 100 are 100x better than only one, etc. Unfortunately, sinking $100 for 100 tickets means your odds have only increased to 100 in 176 million.
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P90
P90
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March 15th, 2012 at 4:04:25 PM permalink
Quote: YoDiceRoll11

Yeah, So looking back it was a good call. But the math everytime says AA is your best shot pre flop. Please explain it isn't. (I'm not a poker pro)


It's simple. Aces are a favorite - but in a 4-way pot, only a 64% favorite.
Suppose now it's the bubble, you have a good stack on the button, but not the big stack. UTG is in the red and shoves all in, the big stack of your table raises, a medium stack calls, you are next, and the big blind's a little short.

The amount to call is also really nasty - you have 70,000, and it's 45,000 to call. Raising won't even make a difference: UTG's in, your 25k into a 175k pot isn't scaring the big stack, the medium stack is committed, and then the big blind might jump in, lowering your chances to 55%. Against random cards, which UTG probably has, for big stack and BB it's 50/50, the medium stack is clearly serious.
With aces, there's almost no flop that will make you fold, and if you do fold post-flop, you might end up the next guy shoving any two under the gun. If you do win, your gains still fall short of a triple-up.

So, are you going to risk the whole tournament on a 50%-60% shot?
Maybe you are, but let's see what can happen if you fold now. Whatever happens, you'll still have a comfortable stack for the final table. If the big stack wins - he clears out two players, gets you both into the money, and you aren't worse off by much, he had the lead on you as it is. If medium stack or BB wins - the stacks equalize and there is no big stack anymore, you are upgraded to one of the big stacks. If UTG wins, it's about the same, only with a side pot.

Folding just brings you better value than aces.
So you grind your teeth, do it, and some decades later sit by the fire telling your grandchildren how you folded pocket rockets on the button preflop.
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YoDiceRoll11
YoDiceRoll11
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March 15th, 2012 at 4:07:39 PM permalink
Hmmm. That makes a lot of sense given the advance situation you describe. Thank you for the detail.
drebbin37
drebbin37
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March 15th, 2012 at 4:10:30 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

I've heard this too. Might be true. But it's also by far the most likely outcome. Powerball is a 25 year old game that draws 2 times per week. 25*52*2=2600 drawings in the history of Powerball. The odds of winning the powerball are 1:175,000,000. It would be an incredible long shot to have two out of 2,600 Powerball drawings have the same winning numbers.



Reminds me of the Birthday Problem. If my calculations are correct, the chances of having at least one pair of matching winners in the history of the game would be 1 - (174,999,999/175,000,000)^2600, or about 1 in 67,308. Is this right? It's not quite as long a shot as I imagined.
Triplell
Triplell
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March 15th, 2012 at 5:02:03 PM permalink
Quote: P90

It's simple. Aces are a favorite - but in a 4-way pot, only a 64% favorite.
Suppose now it's the bubble, you have a good stack on the button, but not the big stack. UTG is in the red and shoves all in, the big stack of your table raises, a medium stack calls, you are next, and the big blind's a little short.

The amount to call is also really nasty - you have 70,000, and it's 45,000 to call. Raising won't even make a difference: UTG's in, your 25k into a 175k pot isn't scaring the big stack, the medium stack is committed, and then the big blind might jump in, lowering your chances to 55%. Against random cards, which UTG probably has, for big stack and BB it's 50/50, the medium stack is clearly serious.
With aces, there's almost no flop that will make you fold, and if you do fold post-flop, you might end up the next guy shoving any two under the gun. If you do win, your gains still fall short of a triple-up.

So, are you going to risk the whole tournament on a 50%-60% shot?
Maybe you are, but let's see what can happen if you fold now. Whatever happens, you'll still have a comfortable stack for the final table. If the big stack wins - he clears out two players, gets you both into the money, and you aren't worse off by much, he had the lead on you as it is. If medium stack or BB wins - the stacks equalize and there is no big stack anymore, you are upgraded to one of the big stacks. If UTG wins, it's about the same, only with a side pot.

Folding just brings you better value than aces.
So you grind your teeth, do it, and some decades later sit by the fire telling your grandchildren how you folded pocket rockets on the button preflop.



If it's the WSOP main event, then yeah, I MIGHT...fold... might. But I would never fold them in any other tournament. I play for 1st, not to double my money...

The story behind the video, is this was a pokerstars event cash game (I think it was called the big game), and the winner at the end of the season won some sort of all exclusive poker tour package(valued at roughly $500,000). They give you $100,000 in chips, and you are able to keep anything you win over the 100k. This guy ended up by the end with $230,000, which put him in the lead with only a few contestants left.

On the season finale, the guy won a monster hand and was up something like $280k, so this guy didn't get the package. I think the contest was kind of BS, as the last players to go obviously had the advantage. It would have been more fair if no one was told who the leader was...

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